Article: Steamer's Projections of Brewers Position Players

[DuWayne Steurer]

After adding Jesse Winker, and William Contreras (and let's not forget Owen Miller!), we'll look at the Brewers' position players and some of the projected numbers and see where the offense stands.

While Brewers General Manager Matt Arnold hasn't made any splashy moves such as inking any of the decade-plus, 300-million dollar signings, he has maneuvered trades to bring Jesse Winker and William Contreras to Milwaukee. Contreras is a young first-time all-star with legitimate 30 home run potential, and Winker is a candidate for a solid bounce-back campaign after an injury-marred 2022 season in Seattle. Arnold also brought in a pair of utility infielders, Abraham Toro and Owen Miller, possibly to compete for the Jace Peterson super-utility role or simply as extra depth. More moves may be made, and Luis Urias may fill the super-sub role in the future.

Everyone has their preferred projection system, and each one uses different algorithms or methods to reach the numbers you see on the screen when you make your fantasy draft or browse the various sites. Another important distinction (a big distinction) is the difference between projections and predictions. Most of these systems are not predictions but simply mathematical models based on the previous season's data, age, and other factors. That being said, let's dig in!

I'm going to use Steamer today. For one, it's available, and ZiPS currently isn't for the Brewers 2023 yet, and two, Steamer does a much better job of projecting playing time than ZiPS (and some other systems) does. So how does Steamer think the Brewers 2023 positional group stacks up? (per FanGraphs)

Name	Team	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Fld	Off	Def	WAR	ADP
Willy Adames	MIL	146	653	580	141	30	1	28	85	81	61	173	3	8	4	.244	.316	.441	.758	.328	111	0.8	-1.5	9.3	5.8	3.9	999.0
Christian Yelich	MIL	146	666	563	140	26	3	21	90	68	89	164	5	14	4	.249	.354	.419	.772	.339	119	1.5	-0.9	15.9	-9.5	3.0	999.0
Luis Urías	MIL	139	575	501	122	24	1	19	65	65	59	119	9	4	2	.243	.331	.409	.740	.326	110	-0.5	0.6	6.0	3.2	3.0	999.0
Rowdy Tellez	MIL	128	553	489	121	24	1	30	73	84	53	113	6	2	1	.247	.326	.486	.812	.346	123	-1.7	0.7	13.2	-10.3	2.3	999.0
William Contreras	MIL	112	472	421	104	18	1	22	57	66	43	122	4	2	1	.247	.320	.450	.770	.334	115	-1.3	-1.9	7.1	2.2	2.2	999.0
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	109	432	383	93	18	2	11	46	46	39	123	4	13	5	.243	.317	.385	.702	.310	99	0.4	0.4	-0.2	2.2	1.7	999.0
Jesse Winker	MIL	115	494	418	104	21	1	17	61	59	64	92	6	1	0	.250	.355	.425	.780	.343	122	-2.4	-2.7	10.0	-12.0	1.5	999.0
Tyrone Taylor	MIL	118	464	420	98	20	2	18	53	58	29	111	7	5	2	.232	.292	.419	.711	.309	98	0.2	2.6	-0.7	-2.1	1.4	999.0
Brice Turang	MIL	102	384	340	83	16	1	7	43	37	36	77	2	12	3	.244	.317	.366	.683	.303	94	0.7	0.0	-2.1	1.9	1.3	999.0
Victor Caratini	MIL	62	242	212	49	9	0	7	26	25	22	55	4	1	0	.232	.315	.372	.687	.303	94	-0.6	-0.1	-2.2	4.6	1.2	999.0
Sal Frelick	MIL	32	131	118	33	6	1	3	15	14	10	19	2	3	1	.276	.337	.414	.751	.328	111	0.0	0.0	1.7	0.2	0.7	999.0
Abraham Toro	MIL	42	172	153	37	8	1	5	19	20	14	30	2	2	1	.241	.313	.408	.721	.315	103	-0.2	-0.8	0.3	-0.1	0.6	999.0
Mike Brosseau	MIL	44	181	160	35	7	0	6	20	20	16	52	3	2	1	.221	.301	.376	.676	.299	91	-0.3	-1.1	-2.2	-0.5	0.4	999.0
Joey Wiemer	MIL	28	112	100	23	5	0	4	13	13	9	30	1	3	1	.234	.301	.414	.715	.311	99	0.0	0.0	0.0	-1.2	0.3	999.0
Keston Hiura	MIL	66	272	240	52	10	1	12	31	33	23	99	6	4	2	.216	.298	.409	.707	.310	99	-0.1	0.0	-0.5	-6.5	0.2	999.0
Payton Henry	MIL	6	24	21	4	1	0	1	2	2	2	7	0	0	0	.207	.278	.331	.609	.271	72	0.0	0.0	-0.8	0.5	0.1	999.0
Owen Miller	MIL	13	54	49	12	3	0	1	5	5	4	12	1	0	0	.241	.299	.364	.663	.292	87	0.0	-0.6	-0.9	-0.4	0.1	999.0
Blake Perkins	MIL	13	53	46	10	2	0	2	6	5	6	14	1	1	0	.211	.301	.363	.664	.295	88	0.0	0.0	-0.7	-0.6	0.0	999.0

Outfield
The Brewers shipped out slugging right fielder Hunter Renfroe and brought in Jesse Winker. Winker profiles almost exclusively as a DH due to his defense, but the Brewers ideally would use Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura (if he remains with the club) in that role often as well. Right now, the outfield lines up with the bulk of playing time going to Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, and Tyrone Taylor. Steamer projects Mitchell for a 1.7 WAR and a .702 OPS, but it wouldn't be outrageous for a prospect to struggle his second time around the league. Mitchell hit well in his late-season call-up in 2022, but that's a sample of less than 100 plate appearances and his strikeout rate was over 40% in those limited chances. 

While Tyrone Taylor got the lion's share of playing time in center field after Lorenzo Cain was released last year, he struggled with on-base percentage and is well past prospect status entering his age 29 season. With Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Joey Wiemer banging on the door, the Brewers could move Taylor to a reserve role sooner rather than later if he struggles to get on base. Christian Yelich projects for a 3.0 WAR and 21 home runs in Steamer's system, which would make most Brewer fans ecstatic. Tempering our enthusiasm, if Yelich can continue to be an on-base threat at the top of the order and set the table, he'll be providing worth as a table setter and leadoff man. Frelick's playing time depends on several factors. Notably, whether or not the Brewers acquire any other outfield pieces, whether or not Taylor struggles, and how well Frelick adjusts to big-league pitching.

Infield
There are some question marks here after dealing away Kolten Wong and Jace Peterson signing elsewhere. Rowdy Tellez returns at first base with his power bat. Despite knocking 35 home runs, Tellez hit just .219 last year with a .767 OPS. Tellez hopes to improve on that mainly by seeing a bounce back in his .215 BABiP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). Willy Adames will man shortstop again in 2023 after posting a 4.7 WAR in 2022. Adames' .298 on-base percentage last year was the lowest of his career by a wide margin, so it's arguable if he maintains his power (31 home runs), there's room to improve on the offensive side. 

The Brewers may look to hand second base to rookie Brice Turang, who broke through at Nashville in 2022 and had a .286 average and .772 OPS. Early projections from Steamer have a limited amount of confidence in his offense but the Brewers will have to be willing to let Turang grow into his game and let his defense provide his value until his bat can catch up. As of now, it looks like Luis Urias is the third baseman. Steamer projects a 3.0 WAR from Urias, which aligns with where he's been the last few years. A bit of power, a decent on base percentage, and decent defense. While the Brewers may end up going another route for third base, a 3.0 WAR projection is a safe bet.

The infield backups are Abraham Toro, Owen Miller, and Mike Brosseau. Brosseau had a solid season in partial playing time for Milwaukee last year, but the Brewers will almost certainly look at the whole group and decide what pieces make the most sense and fit. Miller played almost full-time in Cleveland last year, primarily due to injuries to other players, and wasn't particularly spectacular, but he could provide a decent backup around the diamond.

Designated Hitter
Right now, there are plenty of DH candidates, but I'll focus on Jesse Winker and Keston Hiura. I suspect there's at least some chance that Hiura will be dealt with before spring training, so this is subject to change. After a brutal campaign in 2021, Hiura bounced back quite a bit this past year and slugged fourteen home runs with a .765 OPS in part-time play. Despite that, he never seemed to get on the good side of manager Craig Counsell and earned anything more than sporadic playing time. Often his playing time came against left-handed pitching, which he's notoriously (and oddly) terrible against. Be that as it may, with reverse splits, he doesn't make a good platoon DH partner for Winker, who hits left-handed and has more typical platoon splits. It'll be interesting to see how and when Hiura is used if he's still with the team come April.

Jesse Winker was acquired in the Kolten Wong trade, and the Brewers are betting heavily on Winker having a big bounce-back season. He was terrible in Seattle in 2022. No getting around it. But in 2020 and 2021, he put up ..932 and .949 OPS numbers, respectively. His defensive prowess is best left unsaid, and if he only finds the field a handful of times, it's for the best. The DH spot will likely end up as Christian Yelich's long-term home, but for one season (Winker is a free agent after this year), Yelich can handle left field while WInker DHs. I'd be remiss if I didn't point out Winker's platoon splits. He has a career of .661 OPS vs. left-handers. The Brewers will need to find a platoon partner for him and hide that weakness. 

Catcher
The big get of the offseason so far, and what a get it was. The Brewers acquired all-star catcher William Contreras in a three-team trade for minor league outfielder Esteury Ruiz. Contreras immediately adds some much-needed right-handed pop to the lineup, and should hit somewhere in the middle of the order. Contreras has his defensive drawbacks, but the Brewers seem more than willing to live with it and hope he improves. Steamer puts Contreras at 2.2 WAR with 22 home runs. I hope that's slightly conservative.

The backup catcher is currently Victor Caratini. Caratini was doing a solid job with the backup duties to Omar Narvaez last year, providing some pop and decent defense. During the second half of the season, when he was forced to take on more regular catching duties his offensive numbers declined in August and September. Despite that, Caratini is a solid option for a backup with good defense and some decent power. 

That's where we stand in mid-December. The Brewers may make more moves, and there are plenty of free agents below the top-tier names who remain unsigned. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? What will the lineup look like? What do you think of the first Projections that have come out? Let us know in the comments!

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[Ron Theobald]

I think they have Contreras' ABs about 100 short. He'll be the RH DH platoon with Winker When not catching. Plus his power stroke is to RF, so the short porch will help his OPS.  I think they're 5, 6 HRs short on Contreras. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

52 minutes ago, Ron Theobald said:

I think they have Contreras' ABs about 100 short. He'll be the RH DH platoon with Winker When not catching. Plus his power stroke is to RF, so the short porch will help his OPS.  I think they're 5, 6 HRs short on Contreras. 

It's very possible they're underrating how often Contreras will play. He was absolutely beastly against LHP in 2022 (1.036 OPS in 116 PAs). If he resembles anything like that player again, he'll be snagging a bunch of DH plate appearances in 2023.

And welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[jay87shot]

All these predictions really pussyfoot around and play the safe ground. Just look at the sb totals. Yeli and Mitchell should both be around 30+ with the new rules, hitting leadoff all year, and a full year (mitchell). I do like looking these over but they predict to much (triples really) and don't take risks.

A few notes

1)no way Huira gets 250 pa

2) I don't think there enough OF starts unless Huira starts are LF.

3)Winker is not going to play enough defense to be worth -12 runs

4) Yeli isn't going to lead the team in rbi, leadoff all the way.

5) Our leading hitter will hit over .250, with no shift, young guys, and additions we should improve our team ba more than this.

6) Contreras will be better than there projections, I can see some regression in a category or 2 but not in every aspect of the game.

7)Frelich, Weimer, and Miller will have more than 300 combined pa's. I expect Miller to be the Peterson role over Toro, and at least one our young OF option will get a much longer look than 150 abs.

[Robocaller]

Steamer must really regress batting average to the mean a lot. Not a lot of variability on that roster.

If Winker gets that many ABs and hits .250, he'll get more than 17 HRs. I think they are figuring he'll play a lot of OF.

I would be sad if Frelick only gets 118 ABs.

[DuWayne Steurer]

30 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Steamer must really regress batting average to the mean a lot. Not a lot of variability on that roster.

If Winker gets that many ABs and hits .250, he'll get more than 17 HRs. I think they are figuring he'll play a lot of OF.

I would be sad if Frelick only gets 118 ABs.

I think most projection systems tend to be conservative, some more than others. It's hard for a mathematical model to predict big breakouts (or major dropoffs), as they're based on following trends rather than predicting outliers or anomlies. 

That being said, one of the things holding Winker's numbers down may be the uncertainty around his return from injury.

I also agree that the numbers for Contreras seemed conservative, (and stated as much) but he's young, and has barely had a full season worth of playing time in the majors to draw from, so there's not a lot of data to draw from. 

[Robocaller]

7 minutes ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

I think most projection systems tend to be conservative, some more than others. It's hard for a mathematical model to predict big breakouts (or major dropoffs), as they're based on following trends rather than predicting outliers or anomlies. 

That being said, one of the things holding Winker's numbers down may be the uncertainty around his return from injury.

I also agree that the numbers for Contreras seemed conservative, (and stated as much) but he's young, and has barely had a full season worth of playing time in the majors to draw from, so there's not a lot of data to draw from. 

We can hope Contreras will perform better than that projection, but I'd be happy with that level of production.  My expectation is his career average for the rate stats.

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

We can hope Contreras will perform better than that projection, but I'd be happy with that level of production.  My expectation is his career average for the rate stats.

 

If we get an .850 - 860 OPS and 100 catcher starts from Contreras, plus some DH starts, I'm sure most folks will be over the moon. I wouldn't be disappointed with anything around/over an .800 OPS with 20+ homer power. 

[Redd Vencher]

@jay87shot @Robocaller

The Defense component on Fangraphs includes positional adjustment. A fulltime DH is going to have a very low defense component.

Per 1458 innings adjustments, so divide by that and multiply by the innings at the position.

C +12.5

1B -12.5

2B +2.5

SS +7.5

3B +2.5

LF -7.5

CF +2.5

RF -7.5

DH -17.5

 

@jay87shot

Projections use past performance to predict future performance. Keston Hiura has had 246+ PA 3 of his 4 seasons in the big leagues, so that's what the projection system is spitting out for playing time. It also means it isn't going to throw out new numbers based on rule changes. If you want the projections adjusted to playing time, you take Fangraphs' Depth Chart where they adjust the PA to the season total.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

I think most projection systems tend to be conservative, some more than others. It's hard for a mathematical model to predict big breakouts (or major dropoffs), as they're based on following trends rather than predicting outliers or anomlies. 

That being said, one of the things holding Winker's numbers down may be the uncertainty around his return from injury.

I also agree that the numbers for Contreras seemed conservative, (and stated as much) but he's young, and has barely had a full season worth of playing time in the majors to draw from, so there's not a lot of data to draw from. 

I always had a hard time reconciling projections with my fandom until I rammed it through my head that these are all 50th percentile projections that assume at least a modicum of health. Once I framed it that way, they made a lot more sense to me. 

[Playing Catch]

Contreras REALLY outperformed expectations in his rookie year. If I was predicting how he would hit this year, I would not predict he match last year's wRC+ of 138(!)  If he DOES match those numbers, well... we may have a future HOFer on the roster. Ivan Rodriguez's age 28 season was the only one of his career that featured a higher wRC+ than Contreras's year last season.

My other observation was Frelick. I'm as bullish as anyone on Frelick, but even I can't believe they are projecting a wRC+ of 111 (in limited ABs) for a true rookie. If the Brewers' internal metrics are aligned, I'd be shocked if he wasn't the Brewers' opening day, every day CFer. I do believe that the hope of gaining a draft pick for a ROY, would be enough for the Brewers to play Frelick right out of the gate.