Swanson to the Cubs

[markedman5]

 

[sveumrules]

Dan$by about to get more than Acuña and Albies combined. 

[BallFour]

Cubs will still be lucky to be .500 but will be the trendy pick to finish above the Brewers.

[Hopper]

7 years - 177 million.

yeesh

[sveumrules]

 

2 minutes ago, Hopper said:

7 years - 177 million.

yeesh

So more than Acuña and MHII combined.

Topped the extension ATL signed Olson to after dealing for him last year.

Also longer and more money than Freeman got, though lower AAV.

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Cubs will still be lucky to be .500 but will be the trendy pick to finish above the Brewers.

I don't see it. Swanson isn't that good and they lost Contreras...Their starting pitching doesn't even compare to ours. 

[brewers888]

Brewers need to copy what Atlanta has been doing by locking up young players as soon as possible. Good job doing it with Peralta and Ashby but they need more club friendly deals like that to compete. As for this deal Atlanta was smart letting Swanson go and not pay him this ridiculous contract.

[Brewcrew82]

7 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Brewers need to copy what Atlanta has been doing by locking up young players as soon as possible. Good job doing it with Peralta and Ashby but they need more club friendly deals like that to compete. As for this deal Atlanta was smart letting Swanson go and not pay him this ridiculous contract.

Maybe we have a chance with Chourio, Frelick, etc. now that Stearns isn't covertly working for the Mets on our dime, while heading our baseball operations. . 

[Jopal78]

35 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Brewers need to copy what Atlanta has been doing by locking up young players as soon as possible. Good job doing it with Peralta and Ashby but they need more club friendly deals like that to compete. As for this deal Atlanta was smart letting Swanson go and not pay him this ridiculous contract.

Well, at least with Acuna and Albies it helps to sign kids from the Dominican for bonuses in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands instead of millions that American draftees get.

The Brewers until recently didn’t have much of an operation in the islands. Then again with the money being thrown around now, any agent worth his salt will tell these kids they’d be suckers if they sign an extension that postpones their free agency. 

[SRB]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

Brewers need to copy what Atlanta has been doing by locking up young players as soon as possible. Good job doing it with Peralta and Ashby but they need more club friendly deals like that to compete. As for this deal Atlanta was smart letting Swanson go and not pay him this ridiculous contract.

The Yelich extension was considered team friendly at the time ?

[Team Canada]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Maybe we have a chance with Chourio, Frelick, etc. now that Stearns isn't covertly working for the Mets on our dime, while heading our baseball operations. . 

You keep making this absurd statement without any proof (because there isn't any).

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

You keep making this absurd statement without any proof (because there isn't any).

I've actually never made that statement. Rather, it's exclusively been uttered by the poster I responded to. Should probably have been in blue to denote the sarcasm. 

[Axman59]

The Cubs will regret this contract by year 2 unless 2022 is Swanson's true offensive production.

[Robocaller]

59 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

The Cubs will regret this contract by year 2 unless 2022 is Swanson's true offensive production.

I'm more like year 5.

 

[Lathund]

I think this deal relies a lot on believing in his 2022 season to be good. But I also think it's unlikely to be a deal they'll regret too much even if not. I think his offense going forward is more like the 104 wRC+ he has over the last 4 years than the 116 wRC+ he has this year. And I wouldn't put too much stock into the huge spike in defensive metrics (especially OAA) in 2022; defensive metrics are something you look at in 2-3 year stints. So he's most likely not the 6 fWAR player he was this year. 

So with all that out of the way; He's an above-average defensive shortstop, who is slightly above average at the plate, a slight positive on the basepaths, and has missed a grand total of 2 games in the last 3 seasons. So I have a hard time seeing him ever be less than a 2-3 WAR player for most of the deal (Signed through his age 29-35 seasons). I also don't really see him as 5+ WAR again.

In other words it's a low ceiling/high floor type of FA deal. It's... fine. OK. Decent. If it's just one part of a larger set of moves (Whether they happen this year or next) it can be good, it solves one position of need at a spot where they don't have anyone coming through and next years FA market looks pretty barren. But if they're not going to be spending much, then $25m AAV spent on Dansby Swanson is a lot of lost opportunity cost. 

Looking at the Cubs offseason from a Brewers point of view, they've spent $17m on an OF who has been significantly worse than our likely 4th OF (Taylor) for the last 3 years (Albeit with significant, but unlikely, upside). $68m over 4 years on Taillon who has the same career ERA- as our 5th/6th starter (Houser). And now $177m over 7 years to get Willy Adames. And it's a team that finished 12 games behind the Brewers. They've got a *long* way to go to challenge for the playoffs, let alone the division (19 games behind the Cards last year). 

[MrTPlush]

Well there is your Adames comp. Pretty much exactly what he was expected to get this off-season, but 7 years versus 6.

[brewers888]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Well there is your Adames comp. Pretty much exactly what he was expected to get this off-season, but 7 years versus 6.

The Brewers are being priced out of extending any of their stars so unless they sign guys real early like they did with Ashby and Peralta eventually guys like Adames, Burnes, and Woodruff will have to be traded. Hopefully they get a far better return than they did with Hader even if te Contreras deal makes that one look better.

[phnxcrew]

Love this signing! keep signing decent players to superstar contracts and handcuff your payroll for third place cubbies!

[wntrtxn21]

2 hours ago, brewers888 said:

The Brewers are being priced out of extending any of their stars so unless they sign guys real early like they did with Ashby and Peralta eventually guys like Adames, Burnes, and Woodruff will have to be traded. Hopefully they get a far better return than they did with Hader even if te Contreras deal makes that one look better.

I hate to say it, but I think you're right. I saw Swanson's signing and immediately thought that pretty much takes any extension talk with Adames out of the picture. With the ridiculously crazy contracts being handed out, it's a forgone conclusion that Burnes is gone, but I'm still holding on to the dream that Arnold can some how hold on to Woody. 

[brewcrewdue80]

8 hours ago, brewers888 said:

The Brewers are being priced out of extending any of their stars so unless they sign guys real early like they did with Ashby and Peralta eventually guys like Adames, Burnes, and Woodruff will have to be traded. Hopefully they get a far better return than they did with Hader even if te Contreras deal makes that one look better.

There are cautionary tales on extending early and being burned. Jon Singleton being one.  The players have to be willing. All 3 have probably had an approach talk. Any one of them could have said not at this time. 

Peralta is far and away a success extension.

Ashby hasn't proven his is.

Woodruff&Burnes 2019/2020 happening kinda made their price arc extreme. 2020 was the opportunity but we were mostly shut down. Add the lock down to be dealt with after.  You lost games, you lost months of time to have conversations on extensions.

The extensions you want to see from them may happen with Mitchell/Turang/Frelick/Chourio the rest of this offseason through next 2 offseasons.

[Redd Vencher]

1 minute ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

There are cautionary tales on extending early and being burned. Jon Singleton being one.  The players have to be willing. All 3 have probably had an approach talk. Any one of them could have said not at this time. 

Peralta is far and away a success extension.

Ashby hasn't proven his is.

Woodruff&Burnes 2019/2020 happening kinda made their price arc extreme. 2020 was the opportunity but we were mostly shut down. Add the lock down to be dealt with after.  You lost games, you lost months of time to have conversations on extensions.

The extensions you want to see from them may happen with Mitchell/Turang/Frelick/Chourio the rest of this offseason through next 2 offseasons.

5 years $10 M was not being burned if the player doesn't work out.

[UpandIn]

On 12/17/2022 at 4:30 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Maybe we have a chance with Chourio, Frelick, etc. now that Stearns isn't covertly working for the Mets on our dime, while heading our baseball operations. . 

LOL...alright...but he's not wrong. They should be aggressive in trying to lock these guys up early. 

You hand out these deals and even if they don't all work out, you usually come out well ahead.

Frelick, Chourio...don't wait a year or two if these guys come out of the gates strong. Chourio might be that dude you Wander Franco early on. 

And do it before they sign new agents. That's how the Braves were gifted those asinine Acuna Jr, Albies deals(YES, I know they weren't forced to sign them, but they were ridiculous at the time and look worse now). 

 

[Team Canada]

23 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I've actually never made that statement. Rather, it's exclusively been uttered by the poster I responded to. Should probably have been in blue to denote the sarcasm. 

D'oh! Should have looked at the username closer. Well played.

[Hopper]

Cubs are getting better.  Just signed Taillon.

I know there are those who will dismiss every move they make, just like they do when the Cardinals make moves and get better, but every time they get a little better, they provide more of a thorn in our side.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

On 12/19/2022 at 10:06 AM, Hopper said:

Cubs are getting better.  Just signed Taillon.

I know there are those who will dismiss every move they make, just like they do when the Cardinals make moves and get better, but every time they get a little better, they provide more of a thorn in our side.

 

That's a good thing. A thorn in our side is also a thorn in Stl side.  We could use a team to take account for with Stl starting pitchers. Teams align their best pitchers vs whom they need wins against.  We seen Adam Wainwright 5 times each the last 2 seasons 10 total. Cubs 6 total. Pitt 7 total and Cin 5 total. 

Miles Mikolas was 5 times last season.

Each win vs a loss in division is a 2game swing. Getting a #4 or 5 SP vs their #1 or #2 SPs can improve your head to head. 2 extra wins is 4games in the standings.

(Of course now Wainwright will have 6 starts vs Milw since I suggested he could see less)