Massive Roster Turnover in 2023

[edfunderburk]

The thing I’m most excited about in the new season is the massive roster shuffle … we may only keep 15 players from last year’s roster

Hopefully the change will bring new energy & several more wins

It seems every day we hear of an ex-Brewer signing with another team

Is anyone keeping track of … Who is departing? New arrivals? 

Who else might be gone before the new season begins?

I love our “core” but I’m thrilled to see the changes that are being made

I’d love for Hiura & Caratini to be shipped off too

I’m for signing a vet to play 3B (Turner, Drury) or maybe a trade to acquire Yandy Diaz (as long as it doesn’t require a key prospect)

So far, I’m impressed by GM Arnold ??

 

[edfunderburk]

Is anyone keeping track of …

Who is departing?

New arrivals? 

Where can I find this information easily?

[sveumrules]

No way to really know until we get to Opening Day, but until then best way is just to keep an eye on the 40 Man Roster.

Right now I count at least 18 guys from 2022 that have somewhere between a sure and decent shot at being on the Opening Day roster...

Position Players (8): Caratini, Rowdy, Urias, Adames, Brosseau, Yelich, Taylor, Mitchell.

Pitchers (10): Ashby, Burnes, Bush, Houser, Lauer, Milner, Peralta, Strzelecki, Williams, Woodruff. 

[edfunderburk]

28 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

No way to really know until we get to Opening Day, but until then best way is just to keep an eye on the 40 Man Roster.

Right now I count at least 18 guys from 2022 that have somewhere between a sure and decent shot at being on the Opening Day roster...

Position Players (8): Caratini, Rowdy, Urias, Adames, Brosseau, Yelich, Taylor, Mitchell.

Pitchers (10): Ashby, Burnes, Bush, Houser, Lauer, Milner, Peralta, Strzelecki, Williams, Woodruff. 

Additions: Contreras, Winker, Payamps

Possibilities: Miller, Toro + Turang, Frelick

Uncertain: Hiura

Departures: McCutcheon, Renfroe, Wong, Narvaez, Peterson, Boxberger, Suter 

Who am I missing?

[wntrtxn21]

5 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Additions: Contreras, Winker, Payamps

Possibilities: Miller, Toro + Turang, Frelick

Uncertain: Hiura

Departures: McCutcheon, Renfroe, Wong, Narvaez, Peterson, Boxberger, Suter 

Who am I missing?

 Rogers for departures. 

[edfunderburk]

Are Topa & Cousins healthy & will they be bounce back candidates for the bullpen in 2023?

Who among the multiple middle relief options are truly candidates for the 26-man roster?

 

[edfunderburk]

Starting pitching looks legit with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby + Houser

Who else may start the season in the rotation?

What pitchers will likely make the bullpen?

Milner, Strzelecki, Bush, Williams + Payamps … maybe Cousins, Topa, Guerra … one of the three from the Renfroe trade

[UpandIn]

13 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Are Topa & Cousins healthy & will they be bounce back candidates for the bullpen in 2023?

Who among the multiple middle relief options are truly candidates for the 26-man roster?

 

I think Cousins is. He's got that nasty slider. I dislike his cousin very much, but I'm a fan of his.

Topa...he seems like one of those guys who could have a Corey Knebel like breakout or be DFA'd any day now. Wasn't his last pitch a fastball that hit him in the foot and forced him to leave the game?

It feels like there's a pool of...20+ pitchers who could all play a big role in our pen this year. I don't think that's much of an exaggeration(I'm not even including Williams, Bush, Milner, the more obvious candidates). I like the talent they added. I'd like it a LOT more if they had that one more established late inning reliever. 

I'd love Aroldis Chapman...as wildly unrealistic as it is. I think he's a guy who's likely to bounce back and...MAYBE you get him on a 1/10 type deal. Still throws in the upper 90s. Not like he's lost his velo. Could earn another big deal. Give us that dominant lefty, last year it was primarily leg injuries that hurt him.

And I'd be willing to bet he signs with the Dodger for 1/8M, goes out, puts up a 1.80 FIP and dominates. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

 

I'd love Aroldis Chapman...as wildly unrealistic as it is. I think he's a guy who's likely to bounce back and...MAYBE you get him on a 1/10 type deal. Still throws in the upper 90s. Not like he's lost his velo. Could earn another big deal. Give us that dominant lefty, last year it was primarily leg injuries that hurt him.

And I'd be willing to bet he signs with the Dodger for 1/8M, goes out, puts up a 1.80 FIP and dominates. 

Aroldis Chapman is an unlikely candidate to bounce back. His K% has steadily decreased since 2020, while his BB% has steadily increased. This year, he struck out a career low 26.9% and walked a career high 17.5%. His peripherals have all declined during the same period, capped by a career high 4.57 FIP this season. 

He may still throw in the upper 90s, but you can say the same thing for most relievers nowadays. And upper 90s is significantly less than his peak when he averaged 101 mph on his fastball in 2016.

I'd much rather go for a reunion with Taylor Rogers, or sign Matt Moore. 

The Dodgers can have him. They tried the same thing with Kimbrel last season, and look how that worked out. And Kimbrel's numbers were better than Chapman's. Not to mention he's a huge cancer in the clubhouse. 

[brewmann04]

Hard pass on Chapman at this point still think Arnold looking to find more legit arms for the pen.

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Aroldis Chapman is an unlikely candidate to bounce back. His K% has steadily decreased since 2020, while his BB% has steadily increased. This year, he struck out a career low 26.9% and walked a career high 17.5%. His peripherals have all declined during the same period, capped by a career high 4.57 FIP this season. 

He may still throw in the upper 90s, but you can say the same thing for most relievers nowadays. And upper 90s is significantly less than his peak when he averaged 101 mph on his fastball in 2016.

I'd much rather go for a reunion with Taylor Rogers, or sign Matt Moore. 

The Dodgers can have him. They tried the same thing with Kimbrel last season, and look how that worked out. And Kimbrel's numbers were better than Chapman's. Not to mention he's a huge cancer in the clubhouse. 

Well...it wouldn't be a bounce back candidate if he had a great year last year. He had some low leg issues. Leg issues for a pitcher are...devastating. 

'21 he struck out 15 per 9, had a 3.13 xFIP and an abnormally unlucky HR rate...

He's also gone from a CH as a 3rd pitch to a splitter. 

But he gets healthy and I'll take him in a heartbeat over Moore or Rogers. He offers the potential to be a dominant reliever again much more than Moore or Rogers. He's also going to cost quite a bit more, but all things being equal, I don't think it's all that close. 

Rogers should regress to the norm and have a better season as well. Moore...do we really have confidence he's going to duplicate last year? Chapman has been an elite reliever ever year but last year when he was injured(again, leg, not arm). Moore has had one good year. Seems like you'd be buying low on Chapman and high on Moore. 

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

Hard pass on Chapman at this point still think Arnold looking to find more legit arms for the pen.

You mean he's looking for more good arms, or arms "more legit" than Chapman?

Because I think people are writing a HOF closer off a bit prematurely. 

I do think it's more likely they're targeting controllable relievers who have options, but...Chapman is a guy who could easily be a closer and his value is at an all-time low.

Gregory Soto would be another target. And...another real long shot. Wily Peralta. He had absolutely nasty stuff...just couldn't harness it. Had a good year for the Tigers, but I'd take him in a second...hope the Brewers could fix whatever his issues are. 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

The Brewers could have used the $30 million from the Disney deal to buy a one year contract to Carlos Rodon!  Can you imagine trotting out a starting rotation of Burnes, Rodon, Woodruff, Peralta and Lauer with Ashby, Houser, and Williams closing out the 7 thru the 9.

[wibadgers23]

7 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

The Brewers could have used the $30 million from the Disney deal to buy a one year contract to Carlos Rodon!  Can you imagine trotting out a starting rotation of Burnes, Rodon, Woodruff, Peralta and Lauer with Ashby, Houser, and Williams closing out the 7 thru the 9.

Yeah that would have been fun but when was the last time they shelled out any kind of money to a FA starting pitcher? Jhoulys Chacin maybe but that contract was nothing compared to what Rodon got. They just don’t invest a ton of money in pitching.

[markedman5]

No way Rodon was signing for 1 / 30M with his injury history when an option of 6/162 was available.

[damuelle]

I doubt we’re content with our MLB/AAA LHP depth: Lauer, Ashby, Milner, Small, Pannone………….2021 draft pick 23-year old Gasser.

Expecting some LHP player adds

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, damuelle said:

I doubt we’re content with our MLB/AAA LHP depth: Lauer, Ashby, Milner, Small, Pannone………….2021 draft pick 23-year old Gasser.

Expecting some LHP player adds

 Chafin is prolly the best FA lefty (or reliever in general) left.

Among 287 relievers with at least 50 IP the last two seasons he ranks 23rd in ERA- (58), 51st in FIP- (75), 12th in rWAR (3.2), 20th in fWAR (2.3) and 15th in WPA (+3.59).

Things I see working against him are an 89 xFIP- indicating he might have had some HR/FB luck over his last 126 IP, and being a 33 year old that will likely sign for multiple years.

[Brewcrew82]

13 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Well...it wouldn't be a bounce back candidate if he had a great year last year. He had some low leg issues. Leg issues for a pitcher are...devastating. 

'21 he struck out 15 per 9, had a 3.13 xFIP and an abnormally unlucky HR rate...

He's also gone from a CH as a 3rd pitch to a splitter. 

But he gets healthy and I'll take him in a heartbeat over Moore or Rogers. He offers the potential to be a dominant reliever again much more than Moore or Rogers. He's also going to cost quite a bit more, but all things being equal, I don't think it's all that close. 

Rogers should regress to the norm and have a better season as well. Moore...do we really have confidence he's going to duplicate last year? Chapman has been an elite reliever ever year but last year when he was injured(again, leg, not arm). Moore has had one good year. Seems like you'd be buying low on Chapman and high on Moore. 

Of course it's possible, but the question should be: is it likely? 

I really don't think so. Age and trends (velocity, K%, BB%, etc.) are all working against Chapman here. When he was dominant, he relied on overwhelming hitters with his otherworldly 103 MPH fastball. Now, he sits in the upper 90s, where a significant portion of MLB relievers also reside.

And, again, there's the fact that he's a huge cancer in the clubhouse....

[damuelle]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 Chafin is prolly the best FA lefty (or reliever in general) left.

Among 287 relievers with at least 50 IP the last two seasons he ranks 23rd in ERA- (58), 51st in FIP- (75), 12th in rWAR (3.2), 20th in fWAR (2.3) and 15th in WPA (+3.59).

Things I see working against him are an 89 xFIP- indicating he might have had some HR/FB luck over his last 126 IP, and being a 33 year old that will likely sign for multiple years.

Based on our recent valuations of other relievers (Lamet, McGee, Suter, Boxberger), we’re more likely to end up with someone like Chasen Shreve. ?‍♂️

[UpandIn]

12 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

The Brewers could have used the $30 million from the Disney deal to buy a one year contract to Carlos Rodon!  Can you imagine trotting out a starting rotation of Burnes, Rodon, Woodruff, Peralta and Lauer with Ashby, Houser, and Williams closing out the 7 thru the 9.

He's signed, but...not a crazy idea. We were so close to signing him out of HS, it would have been a nice story. I also like the idea of taking a strength and adding to it by making it that much better. 

Eovaldi is a guy I wouldn't mind signing. He's got elite stuff and he's thrown 5 or 6 different pitches, maybe the Brewers can help get him back to his '21 form when he was worth ~6 WAR and a borderline ace. 

He also seems like he could handle that Hader 2018-19 type role. Throwing 2-3 innings and emptying out the tank each time?

 

Another one, we saw the Twins do it with Correa last year, but you want to make a big addition at 3B, sign Dansby and slide Willy to 3rd, Urias/Turang at 2B. Dansby gets 3/90 or something with an opt out for next year when there isn't another big time SS in Free Agency.

Get another defensive stud, you upgrade your defense at all 3 spots, get another guy who can crush lefties.

Pretty much zero chance it happens, but...if we've got this payroll room as Arnold inferred...and Mark A always talks about adding to the payroll for a difference maker. THAT'D be a difference making move. And so we have to give up our 3rd round pick(or maybe it's 2nd this year as we have the 2nd pick in the competitive balance round). 

Hey, the Cain signing came out of nowhere and they still went back in for Darvish, so...who knows. Of course this is going to get the "can't move Adames to 3B people," up in a roar. 

Swanson though, 22 OAA last year. 
Adames 10 OAA
Frelick/Swanson/Yelich/Contreras/Winker/Adames/Tellez/Mitchell/Urias

Switches up the LHed bats better?

How nice it'd be to have Steve Cohen as an owner(or just Attnasio with his net worth).