Who is our #2 starter?

[NYChez]

For a team that supposedly has great depth in its rotation, I'm downright frightened every time a guy beside Sheets starts a game.

 

Suppan is struggling big-time, Capuano has lost 5 in a row, Bush is average at best this year. Is Vargas our #2 with Villanueva and Gallardo out of the rotation? He has a hard time getting through the 6th inning.

 

Something needs to change in this area for this team to continue to be the team to beat in the 2nd half.

[ELCABALLO45]

I was thinking the exact same thing today. I think our two best starters are.... Sheets and... Gallardo and then Villy. Sad but true.

[brettac1]

This shows how timely Russ's thread was the other day:

p092.ezboard.com/fbrewers...5801.topic

 

Capuano is their second best starter, I would say.

[1992casey]

Here's some good stuff to consider when thinking about this topic. The articles help to statistically define what's #1, #2, etc.

 

How Good Is Your #4 Starter? by Jeff Sackmann

 

More Fun With Rotation Numbers by Jeff Sackmann

 

Definitions of #1 starter, #2 starter, etc. (BF.net message board thread)

 

Also, here's something Brett posted in the thread above. These numbers are 2006 averages (from Jeff's aritcle).

 

http://tinypic.com/30vd3pl.jpg

[Sepolevne]

So by Sackmann's logic, you line up the pitchers by ERA, I'm leaving out Villanueva since his was a spot start:

 

Sheets 3.19

Gallardo 3.68

Capuano 4.28

Vargas 4.29

Suppan 4.90

Bush 5.11

 

Ok, then you say that probably a rotation spot would be 18 games at this point, so

 

 

 

Pitcher Games ERA

Sheets 17 3.19

Gallardo 1 3.68

#1 Total 18 3.44

 

Gallardo 2 3.68

Capuano 14 4.28

Vargas 2 4.29

#2 Total 18 4.08

 

Vargas 12 4.29

Suppan 6 4.90

#3 Total 18 4.60

 

Suppan 12 4.90

Bush 6 5.11

#4 Total 18 5.00

 

Bush 10 5.11

#5 Total 10 5.11

 

So I guess according to the numbers, either Cappy or Vargas is our #2, but it's kind of remarkable that between the "#1 starter" and the "#2 starter" and the "#2 starter" and "#3 starter" the ERA goes up half a run.

 

Just for kicks though, the Brewers score an average of 4.96 runs per game, so really the Brewers should be able to cover over any of the pitchers besides Dave Bush.

 

I don't know 100% if my math is right there though.

[Ennder]

Vargas is our #5, he just needs time for his 3 good starts to begin the season and 3 lucky starts to follow those to wear off. He's been terrible for over a month now. Since May 15th he has a 5.56 ERA and .917 OPS against and that doesn't count today.

 

If you aren't counting Gallardo than Bush has been our #2 for the past month in a half. Since the grand slam padres game on May 25th he has a 3.49 ERA and .651 OPS against.

[TCSM]

This is just another reason why I hope Melvin can somehow pull a deal off to get Buehrle. Capuano is #3 pitcher at best in my mind. When he's on he's got some of the best stuff in the league. The only problem, thats only for a few starts.

 

When I think of a #2 pitcher I'm still thinking big time pitcher. A #2 pitcher should be good enough that he has the potential to be a #1. In capuano's case, I wouldn't say he's good enough to be a #1 pitcher on any team.

[Yaz]

Answer to the question: Yovanni Gallardo. So what do I win??

 

Oh yeah that's right we don't want to mess Gallardo's arm up so we are going to relegate him to the role Elmer Dessen's held before he went on the DL.

[1992casey]

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So by Sackmann's logic, you line up the pitchers by ERA

---

It's been a while since I gave the articles a thorough reading, but don't think that was Jeff's point at all.

 

I think his main point is to show how the ERAs of #1, #2, etc. fell into place when compared to other teams. Along with that, he's assuring fans that they shouldn't necessarily be pushing the panic button when they see a #4 or #5 starter with a 5 ERA.

 

In most cases, there's more that goes into aligning a rotation than simply 'who's better'. You'll see some factors listed in the Setting Rotation After Break thread.

 

Keep in mind, too, that ERA isn't a very good stat for ranking pitchers. There's too much margin of error. Jeff was able to use it in his article because the samples were extremely large.

 

If you want to have some fun with it, though, I guess you could look at current ERAs and note that our guys fit in approximately this way:

 

Sheets #1

Capuano #2

Vargas: #3

Suppan #4

Bush #4

 

You've got to go well beyond ERA in making this evaluation, though. Ks, BBs, and previous seasons' stats go a long way.

[IslandsAC]

I really have never understood the reasoning behind ranking pitchers. Aside from the 5th starter, they all start almost the same number of games (excluding injuries) right? What difference does it make if we call Capuano #2 and Suppan #3 or vice versa? Aside from switching someone out of the rotation, the number that I associate with each pitcher is going to do nothing to change their performance.

[endaround]

The reason is that if a team wants they can get their #1 and #2 starters around 35 starts vs 30-33 for #3 and #4.

[rousieboy]

We don't have a #2...we have a #1 and 4 4's...and until they start pitching to reflect otherwise I stand by this...

 

What have they done for me lately...

[bklynbrewcrew]

Out of the guys currently in the rotation i would say that Capuano is the second best pitcher followed by Bush, Suppan and vargas. Gallardo and Villy would easily be the second and third starters on this team but for some unexplained reason we will continue to have them pitch out of the bullpen.

[rluzinski]

Gallardo and Villy would easily be the second and third starters on this team but for some unexplained reason we will continue to have them pitch out of the bullpen.

 

Actually, the reason why Yo is in the bullpen has been explained to death. At least 1 of them will be in the rotation in September.

 

I think Cappy, Suppan and Bush are all pretty close in talent, with Vargas being a botch below. Villy and Yo have much more potential than the rest of them but their inexperience knocks them down a notch right now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the key to the second half success for the Brewers lies with Capuano, Suppan, and Bush - Villy or Yo replacing Vargas in the rotation down the stretch would be great, but having Villy AND Yo replace Vargas and one of the other three would really be asking a lot from the youngsters, as well as asking two established starters to adjust to roles in the pen.

 

Cappy, Soup, and Bush need to improve in order to keep the bullpen from burning up - Vargas is what he is, a 6 IP guy who will keep you in the game until then, but he has to get yanked by the 6th inning due to pitch count and fear of the lineup turning over a 4th time and knocking him around. Basically, he's a #5 starter. The Brewers need Cappy, Soup, and Bush to be better than that. Lately every starter other than Sheets (and Yo while he was starting) that takes the mound for the Brewers has been pitching like a #5.

 

It will also help the pitching tremendously if the offense continues to improve - the offensive numbers for the Brewers are nothing to be upset about, but I think it's frustrating for fans to watch this team score runs at will one game and be stymied the next day...with this team it's seemed like that happens within a game as well. That's baseball, though, I think we all have to realize that the opponent succeeds at times too - it's not necessarily bad play by the Brewers, but good play by the opposition.

 

I like their chances going forward -- the Brewers will be able to make deals if beneficial opportunities present themselves from a position of strength due to the depth of their roster.

-------------------------

[1992casey]

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Actually, the reason why Yo is in the bullpen has been explained to death.

---

We should be using the Gallardo and limiting his innings thread to debate the wisdom of that decision. For the sake of this thread, we should simply 'assume' that Yo will be in the rotation 'sometime'.

[Ennder]

Quote:

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Lately every starter other than Sheets (and Yo while he was starting) that takes the mound for the Brewers has been pitching like a #5.

---

 

Bush has a 3.49 ERA against and .651 OPS against in his last 7 starts, that is not a #5. I know people are going to be hung up on the couple big innings early in the year with Bush but he has pitched decently this year.

[Bucky Rules]

Capuano is the #2. I'm not sure he's a great #2. I wouldn't mind seeing an upgrade there -- and possibly Yo is the upgrade to make Cappy a 3.

 

At least we've temporarily (for a season maybe) moved past the Capuano is more of an ace than Sheets discussion. That's progress in my mind.

[UWRyan428]

The Bald Bush is my personal #2. The Angry Plumber Will Acend to his Throne during the second half, and show that the comparisons to Chris Carpenter are quite apt.