Article: Overlooked Brewers Prospects: Starting Pitchers

[clancyphile]

The Brewers farm system has developed some fantastic talent in recent years. The trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta has topped the starting rotation since 2018. Josh Hader nailed down the ninth inning from 2019 until the July 2022 trade that may or may not have derailed the season. Brent Suter, Aaron Ashby, and Devin Williams made their way through the pitching pipeline.

 

So, Brewers fans can justifiably look at some of the top pitching prospects and feel excited. But Woodruff and Suter made their way up under the radar compared to more flashy prospects like Kodi Meideros, Cy Sneed, and Anthony Banda. Could that happen again for the Crew? Some of these pitchers look very promising to do just that.

Right-Handed Starting Pitchers 

Max Lazar, ACL Brewers Blue (R)/Carolina (A)/Wisconsin (A+)
1-1, 3.83 ERA, 40 IP, 12 BB, 26 K
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Age: 23

Lazar dominated before the pandemic but was set back by missing all 2021 and much of 2022. But when he was on pre-pandemic, he was on. He recovered some of his 2019 form with Brisbane during winter baseball, though, so he could do what Adrian Houser did for the Brewers.

Kevin Briceno, DSL Brewers 1 (FRk)/ACL Brewers Gold (R)
4-3, 2.02 ERA, 49 IP, 14 BB, 48 K
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Age: 20

Briceno’s just kept people off the bases and kept them from scoring. It’s a long way from the DSL and ACL to the majors. His adjustment to full-season baseball in 2023 will be crucial.

Cameron Wagoner, ACL Brewers Gold (R)/Carolina (A)
3-0, 1.83 ERA, 19.2 IP, 2 BB, 24 K
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Age: 21

Like Woodruff and Suter, Wagoner is a later-round pick. That being said, the production in his first pro season and what he’s doing down under could rocket him up. He’s simply blowing away the competition. This can’t be ignored, like Suter’s 2015 performance in the notoriously hitter-friendly Colorado Springs.

Overview
While these three pitchers have different backgrounds, all three have, in the past, delivered results or are delivering them now. Lazar’s 2023 will be crucial as he returns from two injury-plagued seasons, but Briceno and Waggoner have the challenge of adapting to full-season ball.

Left-Handed Starting Pitchers

Brandon Knarr, Wisconsin (A+)/Biloxi (AA)
11-8 2.83 ERA, 146.1 IP, 47 BB, 152 K
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Age: 24

A major league team didn’t even draft Knarr. But the Brewers picked him up, and so far, he looks like a steal. While his strikeout rate is down, the walks and WHIP also went down, and he was an ace for the Timber Rattlers and solid for Biloxi. Finding a Knarr, a Brent Suter, or someone similar who can fit into the back end of a starting rotation is how the Brewers will be competitive.

Anfernny Reyes , DSL Brewers 2 (FRk)
2-0, 1.54 ERA, 46.2 IP, 24 BB, 48 K
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Age: 18

Reyes posts some good strikeout numbers. Most impressive – he allowed no home runs in the 46.2 innings he pitched. Now, ten unearned runs were allowed, and he had quite a few walks, but one can’t help but think Reyes could be a tremendous asset down the road.

Osbriel Mogollon, DSL Brewers 1 (FRk)
2-3, 2.74 ERA, 46 IP, 24 BB, 57 K
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Age: 18

Mogollon, like Reyes, did very well in avoiding the home run ball – only one allowed in 46 innings – and he flashed even better strikeout numbers. His WHIP was quite good in his first professional season, though. He faces a long road to the majors, but he could be pretty good if the peripherals hold up. 

Overview
Reyes and Mogollon have a long way to go, but both are flashing excellent tools. Knarr, on the other hand, has an immense value already, either as a replacement for Eric Lauer in the rotation or as a trade chip for a crucial piece.

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[Joseph Zarr]

Just a friendly reminder:

Knarr wasn't drafted because he was a part of the much abbreviated 5-Round COVID draft. Only 160 players were chosen.

Wagoner and Lazar are both indeed experiencing quite a bit of success and positive momentum pitching for Brisbane in the Australian Winter League. 

The Brewers even placed Lazar on Nashville's roster (on paper, at least) before the Rule 5 Draft earlier this December.

 

[damuelle]

I’m really hoping Mogollon, Reyes and Briceno build on last year’s success and Lazar’s (along with LHP Clayton Andrews) able to get back to pre-injury form. I’ll also be watching 20-year old RHP Jeison Pena - hopefully a breakout candidate for 2023.

[Outlander]

Good to see Max Lazar turning things around. Was never able to bounce back from that COVID season that derailed his development, hopefully his time in Australia is a sign of things to come in 2023.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It is so nice over the last few years that the Brewers have gotten to the point where discussing DSL pitchers doesn't feel like a waste of time.

Possibly none of them are listed here depending on where Briceno and Wagoner start out, but for a second year in a row I am going to find the pitching results from Carolina fascinating. Between rounds 5 and 11 last year the Brewers drafted a D-II pitcher, a four-year JUCO pitcher, a pitcher who missed a lot of time with injuries and a pitcher who was academically ineligible in his draft year. Toss in the former DSL guys who were called up toward the end of last season (Vallecillo, Herrera and Gonzalez); if healthy, a guy who would have been called up last year (Aquino) and a guy who was in 2021 (Brailin Rodriguez); and a potential holdover or two from last season and you have an interesting but potentially erratic collection, not even considering the highest upside arm in the system.

If three of those guys could emerge the way Rodriguez, Cruz and Cornielle did last season along with the hoped-for progress from Misiorowski, it would really help balance a hitter-heavy system.

[Joseph Zarr]

8 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

It is so nice over the last few years that the Brewers have gotten to the point where discussing DSL pitchers doesn't feel like a waste of time.

Possibly none of them are listed here depending on where Briceno and Wagoner start out, but for a second year in a row I am going to find the pitching results from Carolina fascinating. Between rounds 5 and 11 last year the Brewers drafted a D-II pitcher, a four-year JUCO pitcher, a pitcher who missed a lot of time with injuries and a pitcher who was academically ineligible in his draft year. Toss in the former DSL guys who were called up toward the end of last season (Vallecillo, Herrera and Gonzalez); if healthy, a guy who would have been called up last year (Aquino) and a guy who was in 2021 (Brailin Rodriguez); and a potential holdover or two from last season and you have an interesting but potentially erratic collection, not even considering the highest upside arm in the system.

If three of those guys could emerge the way Rodriguez, Cruz and Cornielle did last season along with the hoped-for progress from Misiorowski, it would really help balance a hitter-heavy system.

I wish I could have said what you wrote here as well as you did. Instead, I gave you a 'Heart' click. I hope it brought you warm fuzzy deep dive DSL/ACL XMas cheer.?

[Joseph Zarr]

Also, I feel like I've been warming up a slow-moving 'I Think I Can!' train in the Prospect Station the past month (having watched his impeccable BP work in Zebulon most of 2022). Now that Reetz re-upped with the Royals and Devanney is back in the prospect stables (whewwww, there was a rustlin' heavy winds through my mountain valley - locals might call it a 'sigh of relief'), I'm going to bat:

LHP Pablo Garabitos is our next Brent Suter

There. I said it.

[Robocaller]

I have a hard time wrapping my brain around a premise that equates Woodruff with Suter, two guys with incredibly different stuff and prospect status (Woodruff fell to the 11th round because his performance at MS State wasn't good, in spite of quality stuff, while Suter was picked in the 31st round because his stuff was pedestrian and he was never a significant prospect).

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Also, I feel like I've been warming up a slow-moving 'I Think I Can!' train in the Prospect Station the past month (having watched his impeccable BP work in Zebulon most of 2022). Now that Reetz re-upped with the Royals and Devanney is back in the prospect stables (whewwww, there was a rustlin' heavy winds through my mountain valley - locals might call it a 'sigh of relief'), I'm going to bat:

LHP Pablo Garabitos is our next Brent Suter

There. I said it.

I think Small will be our next Brent Suter. Perhaps persisting longer as a multi-inning/spot starter.

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

48 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

I think Small will be our next Brent Suter. Perhaps persisting longer as a multi-inning/spot starter.

 

Since everyone is tossing out their pick for next Suter, I will say Adam Seminaris.

[Joseph Zarr]

[JohnBriggs12]

One guy I think that gets overlooked is Alexander Cornielle.  In 119 innings pitched between Carolina and Appleton he fanned 145.  He did walk 4.5 per 9 so he needs some work on command but he just turned 21 in August so there's time.  I assume he'll start 2023 back in Appleton but he's a guy to watch.

[BigWoo53]

On 12/19/2022 at 4:18 PM, JohnBriggs12 said:

One guy I think that gets overlooked is Alexander Cornielle.  In 119 innings pitched between Carolina and Appleton he fanned 145.  He did walk 4.5 per 9 so he needs some work on command but he just turned 21 in August so there's time.  I assume he'll start 2023 back in Appleton but he's a guy to watch.

I agree on Cornielle. Another guy in Appleton I think being overlooked is Carlos Rodriguez. He has some pretty good stuff, kind of reminds me a bit of Eldique Hernandez. He has that more slurve and a curve. I think Rodriguez tossed six no-hit innings in one of his last starts.  He struck out 129 batters across 107.1 innings between CAR and APP. In 7 starts, 36 innings in Appleton he had a sub-2 ERA and a 3.53 ERA in CAR. He is only 21 years old and I think he is another overlooked SP in the system.