Article: Questioning the Process Behind the Brewers' Offseason Trades

[Brewcrew82]

21 minutes ago, endaround said:

Who could the Brewers have gotten? Well the Twins traded Urshela for a 19 year old 40 grade pitching prospect.

We already have an Urshela. His name is Luis Urias. Same exact WAR last season and a superior WAR the season before that...

[MrTPlush]

42 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We already have an Urshela. His name is Luis Urias. Same exact WAR last season and a superior WAR the season before that...

And a solid 5 years younger.

[MrTPlush]

58 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

I think Stearns was hamstrung by MA's budgetary constraints. I also think that's a major reason why he's playing out the string as an advisor for his last year and then moving on greener pastures.

Probably a combination of budget constraints and just having some common sense. At least with obvious resign targets like Grandal/Moose.

Stearns has some slick trades and short terms acquisitions early on offensively…but it sure did deteriorate quickly as the years went on. Adames was a great get, but that’s really the only solid guy by either trade or FA the last few years.

It is kind of interesting Stearns made that big trade for Yelich early on and then proceeded to never make another notable trade (using good prospects again). Makes you wonder if Stearns had an unreasonable love/attachment for prospects his FO drafted/acquired.

[Redd Vencher]

13 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Probably a combination of budget constraints and just having some common sense. At least with obvious resign targets like Grandal/Moose.

Stearns has some slick trades and short terms acquisitions early on offensively…but it sure did deteriorate quickly as the years went on. Adames was a great get, but that’s really the only solid guy by either trade or FA the last few years.

It is kind of interesting Stearns made that big trade for Yelich early on and then proceeded to never make another notable trade (using good prospects again). Makes you wonder if Stearns had an unreasonable love/attachment for prospects his FO drafted/acquired.

With all the trades and graduations, the Brewers farm wasn't good by the end of 2019. The quick turnaround on the rebuild meant they never built the depth to keep making big Yelich like trades. They were a bottom 5 farm until 2022, and now they're ranked between 13 and 19. The Brewers were close to a Corey Ray led package for Quintana in 2017 before the Cubs came in last minute with the Eloy package. They were in on Machado in 2018, but the Orioles wanted Burnes in the trade while the Brewers were offering a package around Phillips and Ortiz. I think balking at including Burnes turned out all right. They also tried to acquire Bryan Reynolds at the deadline in 2021, but I don't know how they thought that was going to happen with the view of their farm system at the time.

[SF70]

6 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

With all the trades and graduations, the Brewers farm wasn't good by the end of 2019. The quick turnaround on the rebuild meant they never built the depth to keep making big Yelich like trades. They were a bottom 5 farm until 2022, and now they're ranked between 13 and 19. The Brewers were close to a Corey Ray led package for Quintana in 2017 before the Cubs came in last minute with the Eloy package. They were in on Machado in 2018, but the Orioles wanted Burnes in the trade while the Brewers were offering a package around Phillips and Ortiz. I think balking at including Burnes turned out all right. They also tried to acquire Bryan Reynolds at the deadline in 2021, but I don't know how they thought that was going to happen with the view of their farm system at the time.

Agree with your take. 

After the Yelich trade and 2018 trade-deadline, the farm was devoid of positional prospect talent and because of the team in contention mode could only be built-up through the draft until the Hader trade.

Thanks to Johnson & co and Groopman & co, they have procured an amazing amount of positional talent in a short amount of time and now have a top 5 positional farm system.

This team has zero chance to compete moving forward without a consistently strong farm. Stearns and Arnold know this and have been hoarding since 2018. 

With the strong & rebuilt infrastructure in place and able to consistently procure well above average yearly classes this team is in good shape moving forward, provided they continue to hoard their best prospects and not trade them-off.

The ‘22 pitching injuries & regression should be a awake-up call to those that want to trade-off prospect talent to buttress the Burnes/Woodruff supposed “window”.  A repeat of either and this organization will be set-back for years.

We are still a couple of quality classes from being able to trade-off some of our best prospects. Patience is necessary and will be rewarded.

[MrTPlush]

Just because the farm system was weak, doesn’t mean we couldn’t make trades. You aren’t trading for Juan Soto, but plenty of solid contributors can be had for 50 grade prospects etc. 

If they want to build their next core through the farm system, that is fine. At that point though, extend Woodruff if you can, trade Burnes, and trade Adames. Get those prospects into our system or on our team, get this thing steamrolling by 2024-2025. Then we can happily commit to Turang/Mitchell/etc. in 2023. A rotation of Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby is a pretty good start before considering any type of acquisition from Burnes/Adames.

On the other hand, if they lose both of Burnes/Woodruff, I think people will wish we tried a bit harder while they were around. Because it’s going to be one big prayer to get the necessary pitching to be a strong competitive team with the way our farm and current team are (minus them of course).

[Redd Vencher]

47 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Just because the farm system was weak, doesn’t mean we couldn’t make trades. You aren’t trading for Juan Soto, but plenty of solid contributors can be had for 50 grade prospects etc. 

If they want to build their next core through the farm system, that is fine. At that point though, extend Woodruff if you can, trade Burnes, and trade Adames. Get those prospects into our system or on our team, get this thing steamrolling by 2024-2025. Then we can happily commit to Turang/Mitchell/etc. in 2023. A rotation of Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby is a pretty good start before considering any type of acquisition from Burnes/Adames.

On the other hand, if they lose both of Burnes/Woodruff, I think people will wish we tried a bit harder while they were around. Because it’s going to be one big prayer to get the necessary pitching to be a strong competitive team with the way our farm and current team are (minus them of course).

A 50 grade prospect is usually on a top 100 list. We had 0 of those entering 2020. The one who would have made the list had he not used his rookie status in 2019 was Grisham, and we moved him for a top 25 prospect and Lauer. Pre 2021 we had Turang and Mitchell crack the bottom of the top 100. Given Drew Rasmussen was able to pry Adames away, we can add him, but we traded him like you wanted. 2021 was the ascent of Joey Wiemer, but he only made 1 preseason top 100 going into 2022. Brice Turang fell off and Mitchell barely held on at 100 on one list for 2022. Sal Frelick couldn't be traded until after 2021, so all in all what did you want to move that you think could have nabbed the big go for it piece you wanted before 2022?

[SF70]

40 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Just because the farm system was weak, doesn’t mean we couldn’t make trades. You aren’t trading for Juan Soto, but plenty of solid contributors can be had for 50 grade prospects etc. 

If they want to build their next core through the farm system, that is fine. At that point though, extend Woodruff if you can, trade Burnes, and trade Adames. Get those prospects into our system or on our team, get this thing steamrolling by 2024-2025. Then we can happily commit to Turang/Mitchell/etc. in 2023. A rotation of Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby is a pretty good start before considering any type of acquisition from Burnes/Adames.

On the other hand, if they lose both of Burnes/Woodruff, I think people will wish we tried a bit harder while they were around. Because it’s going to be one big prayer to get the necessary pitching to be a strong competitive team with the way our farm and current team are (minus them of course).

The new FA deals for SS’s & frontline starters has completely eliminated any chance of extension’s of our big 3, if we’re being real.

In my perfect baseball world I would have wanted Burnes traded this offseason, Adames extended and Woodruff held for the draft-pick.

That would have allowed the team to contend in ‘23 &’24 with Woodruff and Adames and given us at least 1, but possibly 2 big-armed SP prospects that could have helped replace Burnes/Woodruff by ‘25.

With the team publically taking the 3 off the market, either they didn’t like the returns (likely, the way teams are now hoarding their best prospects) or Attanasio doesn’t want the potential fan blow-back and lack of ticket-sale ramifications, maybe both?.

If the team flounders, they can trade-off 1 or more of the big 3 at the trade-deadline (when the desire to deal by some increases)  if not, they might have to ride them for the draft-picks.

[sveumrules]

11 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Probably a combination of budget constraints and just having some common sense. At least with obvious resign targets like Grandal/Moose.

Stearns has some slick trades and short terms acquisitions early on offensively…but it sure did deteriorate quickly as the years went on. Adames was a great get, but that’s really the only solid guy by either trade or FA the last few years.

It is kind of interesting Stearns made that big trade for Yelich early on and then proceeded to never make another notable trade (using good prospects again). Makes you wonder if Stearns had an unreasonable love/attachment for prospects his FO drafted/acquired.

The Adames and Urias trades both involved notable prospects in Rasmussen and Grisham.

Wong 5 WAR for 15 million.

Narvaez 4.5 WAR for an org depth prospect.

Jace 3.5 WAR off the scrap heap.

Avisail 3.3 WAR for a lil over 13 million.

Renfroe 2.5 WAR for the corpse of JBJ and his 17.5 million in dead money.

Boxberger +2.45 WPA for 4.25 million.

There have been a number of solid guys via trade / free agency the last few years.

[endaround]

16 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We already have an Urshela. His name is Luis Urias. Same exact WAR last season and a superior WAR the season before that...

Not sure why having a 2B precludes getting a 3B

[Brewcrew82]

42 minutes ago, endaround said:

Not sure why having a 2B precludes getting a 3B

No indication that Urias is being moved from 3B, where he's played predominantly for the last two seasons...Plus Urshela's going to make around $10 million in arbitration, which wouldn't make sense given that we traded Wong who was going to make the same amount. Either they'd want to go with the cheaper Turang or a clear upgrade, which Urshela isn't. 

[82brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, endaround said:

Not sure why having a 2B precludes getting a 3B

Well, this started with a reference to the Twins trading for Urshela at which point the Brewers had Wong.  So yes, we did have a second basemen...and a third basemen equal to or better than Urshela so I'm guessing that is what precluded a hypothetical acquisition of Urshela.

[monty57]

On 12/9/2022 at 1:49 PM, MrTPlush said:

David Stearns really screwed over the Brewers and Matt Arnold, in my opinion. The time to build around the 'big 3' was last off season. We should have been making a serious run in 22-23...multiple years. Stearns left Arnold with a crappy situation with the MLB roster. Should we really be making notable FA signings and make notable trades when all of those guys should either be extended (unlikely) or traded next offseason? Probably not, not for just a year. Would have made waaaay more sense to do it last year and get multiple good cracks at it before a mini tear down. 

Matt Arnold wants to build around them, but it is a little too late for that. Why build around guys that you would trade next offseason? It doesn't make any sense to hold anyone to the '24 deadline. What are you going to do if you are competing? Ride them to FA? Yikes. It should be interesting to see if they can extend Woodruff or Burnes...but that seems unlikely. If not, they are as directionless as their moves make it seem. It is too dumb to invest in a roster that only lasts a year and too dumb to waste all the talent on the team. Honestly, Arnold is in a tough situation without a good answer on what to do. 

I'll have to disagree. If Stearns had "made a serious run in 22-23," that would have meant selling long-term assets for short-term assets, and maybe signing a deal or two that would be good for a couple years (when Stearns was here), and then bad for a couple years (after Stearns left). 

That would have "screwed over" the Brewers and Matt Arnold. He'd be taking on an aging team with no farm and some bloated contracts, leaving him with little to work with.

Instead, Stearns rebuilt the farm while they were winning at the MLB level. Arnold is left with a much-improved farm system with talent at all levels, multiple star players at the MLB level who can either be extended or are phenomenal trade chips to add more young talent to the roster, and only has one big contract on the books, offering him financial flexibility going forward.

There seems to be a lot of short-sightedness on this site lately. Setting someone up for one decent year and then a massive rebuild is what many exiting GMs do, and they get out the door before the collapse. That is screwing over a franchise. I think Stearns set Arnold and the Brewers up very nicely, and look forward to winning baseball in Milwaukee for years to come.

[Jopal78]

The 2021 team which had Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser and Lauer won 95 games. 

The 2022 team had Peralta, Woodruff and Houser all miss time with injuries. In their place Jason Alexander, Chi Chi Gonzalez Ethan Small and Andy Ashby make 32 starts for the Brewers. Those four combined for a WHIP of 1.56, they allowed a total of 26 homers in 158 innings (1.48/9).  Next, their bullpen just wasn't as good as it was in '21 and they had several relievers pitch a significant amount of innings and perform poorly: Taylor Rogers, Matt Bush, Trevor Kelley pitched a combined 69.2 innings allowing 61 hits, 30 walks (1.31 WHIP) and allowing an astronomical 21 homeruns (2.71/9).

Thus I don't think Matt Arnold's task in putting together the 2023 roster is complicated. They intend to rely on the same starting pitching from '21 to win games for them in '23 and are banking on having better health. That they jettisoned Suter, (66 IP) Boxberger (64 IP), Gott (45.2 IP), Gustave (28 IP), Perdomo (23.2 IP) along with Rogers leaving as a FA means the Brewers are making nearly wholesale changes to their bullpen and hoping for improvement there. Certainly, the Renfroe trade appears to fit that narrative as Junk, Pegeuro and Seminaris could all be competing for  bullpen spots in '23. I would also assume the Brewers will be shoppers for free agent relievers once the closers have signed and set the market. 

As someone else pointed out, they also appear to be moving away from the "all or nothing" type of hitters who rip 30 homeruns and struggle to reach an .800 OPS. Further, as would be expected of any team without a 200 million dollar payroll, their prospects and bonus babies who reached AAA (Mitchell, Frelick etc.) will be given a crack at making the major league team. I would also expect the Brewers to be bargain shopping for 3B, C and even 1B and are willing to wait out players like Drury, Justin Turner, Jorge Alfaro, Gary Sanchez, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria, Wil Myers Edwin Rios etc.