Trading the "Big Three"

[MrTPlush]

14 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

If I remember correctly the rumors were that the Mariners were after Wong, not that the Brewers were after Winker.  Aside from the fact that we don't know if other teams were after Winker or not, it is equally possible the Brewers were their preferred match.  Or, maybe the Brewers just made a shrewd move before another team could.  Your premise makes a lot of debatable assumptions.

If I am making debatable assumptions, you are grasping at straws with your hypotheticals.

[82brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

If I am making debatable assumptions, you are grasping at straws with your hypotheticals.

I disagree, care to explain your stance? 

 

[MrTPlush]

29 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

I disagree, care to explain your stance? 

 

Because both teams likely shopped both players across MLB. At the end of the day Winker was worth a player that most would agree is pretty much worth his contract, Wong didn’t really have much in the form of surplus value. If people actually thought Winker could go put up a .880 OPS he had way more value than being a salary swap…actually worse than a salary swap because they had to ship a player with him.

The Brewers were their preferred match, because they made a deal. Could they have really wanted Wong? Sure, but he is what he is. It’s really grasping for something throwing out hypotheticals that the Brewers acquired Winker before any other GM got out of their chair or that there could have been way better offers on paper, but they just wanted Wong specifically that bad.

I mean, sure, my assumptions are debatable. They are assumptions after all and none of us are in the Brewers front office yet. My assumptions are what one would typically assume in this situation though.

 

[82brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Because both teams likely shopped both players across MLB. At the end of the day Winker was worth a player that most would agree is pretty much worth his contract, Wong didn’t really have much in the form of surplus value. If people actually thought Winker could go put up a .880 OPS he had way more value than being a salary swap…actually worse than a salary swap because they had to ship a player with him.

The Brewers were their preferred match, because they made a deal. Could they have really wanted Wong? Sure, but he is what he is. It’s really grasping for something throwing out hypotheticals that the Brewers acquired Winker before any other GM got out of their chair or that there could have been way better offers on paper, but they just wanted Wong specifically that bad.

I mean, sure, my assumptions are debatable. They are assumptions after all and none of us are in the Brewers front office yet. My assumptions are what one would typically assume in this situation though.

The only rumor I remember about Wong involved Seattle.  I don't think suggesting Seattle and Milwaukee just matched up on the trade is any more straw grasping than it is to suggest nobody wanted Winker.  We don't really know but then again I haven't seen a huge trade market for OF (or DH really) help.  The rumors about Seattle pursuing Wong, and then actually trading for him specifically do suggest they wanted him that badly.

Everything I have seen seems to indicate Winkers issues were injury related.  If there is an actual reason for his decline then sure, I would have more reason to doubt but I can't think of another MLB player more primed for a return to "normal" than Winker.  Perhaps the reported clubhouse issues decreased Winkers value for the Mariners and they were going to ship him out one way or the other. Wouldn't the first time a team has done that.

You could be correct.  I have no idea but the reality is you're grasping just as much as anyone else.  I agree your assumptions are typical for you but I don't think they are typical for most.

 

[brewmann04]

almost everyone understands that they will be no way to keep both pitchers and it comes down pick one and try to extend him. it also possible that neither guy wants to stay and then a Trade must happen

[rickh150]

22 hours ago, UpandIn said:

.288

.385

.504

.888

Winker's career line heading into last year.

What would you possibly have considered overwhelming in return for Wong? A player we were likely to buyout for 2 million and nothing in return until he had a 3HR game and went on a small late season run and is now...Winker and a former top prospect who can play all over the IF.

Renfroe...I hated that trade...because it makes us worse vs LHed pitchers. But how was Wong underwhelming? 

Well, it opens a hole at 2B for now. The two in return were also bad last year so that is underwhelming.  If we don’t trade Wong, he is at least adequate or roughly an avg mlb second baseman. Solid and consistent… we need some more consistency in a looks like young lineup. 
Renfroe… right. Just keep him for a year and let him walk. Good not great bat…especially for lefties. I guess the trade brought depth to the bullpen. I guess.

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

What does that have to do with the Brewers doing their medical due diligence? The Brewers have doctors that talk to other doctors and review medical information independently.  Based on those reviews the Brewers either have a high degree of confidence he will be fine.  I mean, this really is baseball 101 stuff.

All they could do is examine him (and any imaging they took) to assure that the operations weren't terrible failures and that his recovery was on schedule. As they couldn't evaluate his ability to do baseball activities, they really don't know if he will be limited. That's not hard to understand, is it? Yelich was supposedly 100% recovered from his knee, and we see how that turned out.

But it's really not like they have a lot riding on it. Instead of paying Wong $2M for a buyout, they paid the M's $1.75M and got Winker and Toro in return. So if they get over 1.1WAR performance from the both of them, they're ahead of the game.

 

[MrTPlush]

2 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

All they could do is examine him (and any imaging they took) to assure that the operations weren't terrible failures and that his recovery was on schedule. As they couldn't evaluate his ability to do baseball activities, they really don't know if he will be limited. That's not hard to understand, is it? Yelich was supposedly 100% recovered from his knee, and we see how that turned out.

But it's really not like they have a lot riding on it. Instead of paying Wong $2M for a buyout, they paid the M's $1.75M and got Winker and Toro in return. So if they get over 1.1WAR performance from the both of them, they're ahead of the game.

 

You are strongly assuming the option was this trade or paying Wong $2mil. I’m guessing they could have found a team willing to trade for Wong and take his entire salary. It wasn’t a lot of money for a one year commitment to a guy playing a more premium position. I doubt the Brewers would pick up the option to scramble to trade him for a similar salary. The trade kind of looks like a mutual salary dump, but I think it is more coincidental due to it being two competitive teams that are payroll stingy.

Hopefully their evaluation of his health goes a little better than Trevor Rosenthal last year though…

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

All they could do is examine him (and any imaging they took) to assure that the operations weren't terrible failures and that his recovery was on schedule. As they couldn't evaluate his ability to do baseball activities, they really don't know if he will be limited. That's not hard to understand, is it? Yelich was supposedly 100% recovered from his knee, and we see how that turned out.

But it's really not like they have a lot riding on it. Instead of paying Wong $2M for a buyout, they paid the M's $1.75M and got Winker and Toro in return. So if they get over 1.1WAR performance from the both of them, they're ahead of the game.

 

Well yes, I don't think he had a brain injury that would make him forget how to do baseball.  I think the Brewers are pretty comfortable with that.  I would suspect he may be limited at least early in spring training but again, he isn't the first person to undergo these surgeries and they are most likely being done by preeminent doctors with top notch rehab.  He isn't going down to the local strip mall to recover.  At the end of the day the only factual position is that the Brewers have far more insight, medical and otherwise, into Winker than any of us schleps so I'll go with their evaluation.

The results from Yelich are much more likely due to a chronic back issue than the knee.  Unless you have definitive proof that this version of Yelich is a direct result of a knee injury...

 

 

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

You are strongly assuming the option was this trade or paying Wong $2mil. I’m guessing they could have found a team willing to trade for Wong and take his entire salary. It wasn’t a lot of money for a one year commitment to a guy playing a more premium position. I doubt the Brewers would pick up the option to scramble to trade him for a similar salary. The trade kind of looks like a mutual salary dump, but I think it is more coincidental due to it being two competitive teams that are payroll stingy.

Hopefully their evaluation of his health goes a little better than Trevor Rosenthal last year though…

To be fair, the injury to Rosenthal after his acquisition was a completely different injury than what he was rehabbing when they got him.  Unless we are holding the Brewers to a predictive standard this is apples and oranges.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/trevor-rosenthal-likely-to-miss-rest-of-2022-season.html

 

[MrTPlush]

29 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

To be fair, the injury to Rosenthal after his acquisition was a completely different injury than what he was rehabbing when they got him.  Unless we are holding the Brewers to a predictive standard this is apples and oranges.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/trevor-rosenthal-likely-to-miss-rest-of-2022-season.html

 

I didn’t even know he ever threw a rehab pitch. I’d say it isn’t totally unrelated. When you don’t pitch for basically two years an injury during rehab to knock you out a month is a fair possibility. Winker has played recently, but just had knee and neck surgery…and struggled last year before multiple surgeries. I’d say the chances of him being crippled and/or a poor performer next year are on the radar of concerns. If you acquire an injured player, there is a certain risk you run.
 

Though to be fair, I was more joking than serious with the Rosenthal reference.

 

[UpandIn]

22 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Well, it opens a hole at 2B for now. The two in return were also bad last year so that is underwhelming.  If we don’t trade Wong, he is at least adequate or roughly an avg mlb second baseman. Solid and consistent… we need some more consistency in a looks like young lineup. 
Renfroe… right. Just keep him for a year and let him walk. Good not great bat…especially for lefties. I guess the trade brought depth to the bullpen. I guess.

You gotta go with Turang at some point. I really think Turang vs Wong will be at worst a push next year when you look at his defense and speed. Wong was headed the wrong way physically. Getting slower, his arm was declining. Last year was a fluke year defensively, but I don't think he's a impact defender. Turang should be. He's also a lot faster, makes good contact. He can't POSSIBLY be worse vs lefties than Wong. Turang actually had reverse splits whereas Wong had an OPS of like .430 last year vs lefties. So...getting back Winker is a huge win there. You have the chance at getting back a guy who SHOULD be a .250/.360/.460 guy and that's pretty pessimistic. Given how he hits at AmFam, there's absolutely no reason he doesn't replicate his 2020/2021 season when he put up a combined line of ,292/.392/.552. That's pretty much Yelich like numbers...who, by the way, should also put up better numbers as he's near the top of the list of guys who should benefit the most from the rules regarding the shift. 

And they also get back Toro...who may not be anything, but he's been an outstanding player coming up in the minors in a stacked Astros system and plays 2nd/3B as a Switch hitter with power.

I think we're a lot better off with Turang/Winker/Toro vs Wong...even if Toro doesn't figure it out.

 

If not for the Renfroe trade, I'd be thrilled with the two moves. Then they could just focus on a Catcher and they'd have a really nice looking lineup offensively and defensively. 

Either way, they didn't. But this trade makes us better. 

[brewmann04]

I think one of the arms will be moved at some point.

[UpandIn]

17 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

I think one of the arms will be moved at some point.

Well...I think it's a given both will be moved at some point.

Are you saying you think they'll do so this year or are you saying in the future?

[SF70]

20 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

I think one of the arms will be moved at some point.

I’m beginning to think they ride all 3 for the draft-picks. The team should contend all season-long for a playoff spot, so forget this trade-deadline. Then how are they going to trade-off any of them in another go for it year?

The time to trade one (Burnes) would have been now, but since Arnold publicly took them off the market, that time seems to have past.
 

I think the team has even more confidence in their pitching development system than I do and they  believe they can develop Gasser and a couple of Small, Wagoner, Rodriguez, Cruz, Cornielle, Henderson, Misiorowski, Jarvis, Casteneda, and Smith into rotation arms by OD ‘25.

Turang should take over for Adames, with Brown/Moore at 2B, Black at 1B, and Chourio & Quero knocking at the big-league door as well.