Franchise Reset Trade

[Jose Cardenal]

1) I believe that the Brewers as currently constructed will be a winning team but not one that truly is a World Series contender.

2) I don't believe the Brewers have the financial wherewithal to add the necessary pieces to become a true title contender.  This will only get worse in 2024.

3) The Brewers do have a few cornerstone type players that if supplemented with a couple more could be part of a team with a playoff window 2024-2028.

4) The Dodgers have a need at SS and the Rotation and have to be feeling the heat to keep up with SF and SD (as well as the Mets and Phillies).  So I propose a trade that resets the Franchise to really compete in the very near future.

5) In conjunction with this Trade I would extend Woodruff (5yr - $100 million) which the Brewers could easily live with after moving the other pieces below.

 

Dogers Get:

Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Tyler Black & Esteury Ruiz

 

Brewers Get:

Diego Cartaya - C - Top 10 Prospect and cornerstone player

Bobby Miller - RHP - Top 30 Prospect and cornerstone player

Gavin Lux - 2b/3B - Would also except Michael Busch a Top 50 2B/OF prospect instead

Ryan Prepiot - RHP - Top 100 Prospect with some MLB success under his belt

Maddox Bruns - LHP - Dodgers 2021 1st Rd pick

Nick Nastrini - RHP - Dodgers 2021 4th Rd Pick

 

The trade values match closely via Baseball Trade Values.  Adding the above talent to Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Chourio, Freelick, Weimer, Turang & Mitchell should open a nice competitive window that leaves the Brewers with some financial flexibility (especially in the 2024-26 years) to fill out the roster.

[Hopper]

That trade is WAY light on our end, that is a lot of crazy right there...  A LOT OF CRAZY!

[Jose Cardenal]

As I said it balances on Baseball Trade Values so I wouldn't say it is Crazy.  

[brewmann04]

It only a Matter of time before we will be trading those two big arms.

[StearnsFTW]

Intriguing thought.  Not sure I'd do it, but I know I wouldn't be mad if they did.

And it's not crazy.  Adames is worth at least a top 100 plus another guy.

Burnes is worth the rest.

 

Edit:

Adames--Lux/Pepiot

Burnes-Cartaya/Miller +

 

If the Brewers made either of those trades individually I'd be fine it.  I wouldn't take anything less.

[wibadgers23]

In theory, this trade makes sense for both sides but I tend to believe the reports saying we aren't trading any of the big three this offseason.  I do think they'll give it one more season with these guys before the big sell-off happens.  This type of trade is more likely at the deadline if we stink or next offseason.  Also, I'm a big Miguel Vargas fan so he'd have to be in the trade for me.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, I'd rather have Vargas than Lux myself.

[jay87shot]

Can we please stop using or citing baseball trade values that site is so trash on prospects. For big leaguer for big leaguer trades ok, it has some mathematical value but is still flawed on a recency bias (see value of Woody vs. Burnes)

Here is my reasoning, in separate trades we could get.

Burnes for Cartaya, Miller, Pepiot.  If you look at the Castillo to the Mariners trade this is a little better because you get Pepiot instead of 2 mid level prospects but Burnes is better and has an extra half year control. 

That leaves Adames for Lux (or prospect swap), Bruns, Nastrini

Adames has at least those 2 prospects value over Lux even with Lux's control.

No need to add Ruiz and Black.

[wallus]

I'd prefer to give it a go and blow it up if things don't look great at the deadline.

[jay87shot]

41 minutes ago, wallus said:

I'd prefer to give it a go and blow it up if things don't look great at the deadline.

Agreed, assuming health and decent play Burnes, Willy, Woody, Lauer, Rowdy, etc should all have pretty much the same trade value just a few less interested teams. However there will likely be a couple teams that are more desperate. If we are playing well great, we can still get a decent return on one year for a few guys.

[Brewcrew82]

51 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Can we please stop using or citing baseball trade values that site is so trash on prospects. For big leaguer for big leaguer trades ok, it has some mathematical value but is still flawed on a recency bias (see value of Woody vs. Burnes)

Here is my reasoning, in separate trades we could get.

Burnes for Cartaya, Miller, Pepiot.  If you look at the Castillo to the Mariners trade this is a little better because you get Pepiot instead of 2 mid level prospects but Burnes is better and has an extra half year control. 

That leaves Adames for Lux (or prospect swap), Bruns, Nastrini

Adames has at least those 2 prospects value over Lux even with Lux's control.

No need to add Ruiz and Black.

No one's saying that BTV is the Bible or anything, but it's at least a fair starting point that helps provide an effective grounding for trade discussions. I believe it's been accurate on around 90% of actual trades. 

FWIW, I just noticed that BTV adjusted Woody's MTV from 39 to 51. That's a lot more reasonable compared to Burnes' 78 MTV, though maybe still a bit short. 

[jay87shot]

15 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

No one's saying that BTV is the Bible or anything, but it's at least a fair starting point that helps provide an effective grounding for trade discussions. I believe it's been accurate on around 90% of actual trades. 

FWIW, I just noticed that BTV adjusted Woody's MTV from 39 to 51. That's a lot more reasonable compared to Burnes' 78 MTV, though maybe still a bit short. 

Good they adjusted Woody but I think that proves my point, a guy who hasn't pitched in like 3 months moved 12 points overnight. That's like the value of Joey Weimer, if the site can be behind that much a players value, trades that are 10-20 points different can be valid proposals or complete trash. People who reference btv make it so trades have to be within a couple points and then knock trade more than 5 apart, when a fair trade has a much wider range.

Also take Yeli, he has 6/156 (not counting an option or buyouts) left, if he averages 2 WAR (2 is fair I feel) in those 6 years (12 WAR x 8 mill) he has a 96 million value. That is a -60 value, BTV has him at -112 which is a average yearly WAR of like 1, which is way off. The difference between them and me is the value of Woody-ish.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Good they adjusted Woody but I think that proves my point, a guy who hasn't pitched in like 3 months moved 12 points overnight. That's like the value of Joey Weimer, if the sight can be behind that much a players value trade that are 10-20 points different can be valid proposal or complete trash. People who reference btv make it so trades have to be within a couple points, when a fair trade has a much wider range.

Also take Yeli, he has 6/156 (not counting an option or buyouts) left, if he averages 2 WAR (2 is fair I feel) in those 6 years (12 WAR x 8 mill) he has a 96 million value. That is a -60 value, BTV has him at -112 which is a average yearly WAR of like 1, which is way off. The difference between them and me is the value of Woody-ish.

Adjustments are a good thing and not necessarily an indication of unreliability. In this particular case, they made the correct adjustment by moving Woody up 12 points. 

Again, I wouldn't focus on making sure that everything lines up value-wise to the last decimal. That's not how the real world operates. But it does provide a basic picture that is grounded in empirical data and which helps to structure the discussion around potential trades. And the fact remains that it's been accurate on upwards of 90% of actual trades. That's a pretty good indication of validity right there.  

[Devinep]

3 hours ago, Jose Cardenal said:

As I said it balances on Baseball Trade Values so I wouldn't say it is Crazy.  

As an example of how accurate that site is, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor are about the same in value. That site is often inaccurate 

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, Devinep said:

As an example of how accurate that site is, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor are about the same in value. That site is often inaccurate 

From August 2019 to now, it's been accurate on 94.6% of real-life trades....It's not perfect by any stretch, but it's better than anything else that's publicly available. 

https://theathletic.com/3447510/2022/07/26/juan-soto-trade-values/

[Redd Vencher]

2 hours ago, Devinep said:

As an example of how accurate that site is, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor are about the same in value. That site is often inaccurate 

Taylor has 724 PA in his career with a 106 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR and 4.0 bWAR while Weimer is still a prospect that could flame out which is calculated into their values. Nomar Mazara was a top 20-25 in baseball, which Wiemer is not, and he has less career WAR than Taylor. It's not unreasonable for the projection to spit out a comparable trade value for the 2 players.

[Robocaller]

There have been several threads in this forum that have detailed trades of one or more of our big 3 to LAD, including 2 of my  "blueprints" which involved both Burnes and Adames.

Some of us would prefer getting Vargas.

 

[jay87shot]

12 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Taylor has 724 PA in his career with a 106 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR and 4.0 bWAR while Weimer is still a prospect that could flame out which is calculated into their values. Nomar Mazara was a top 20-25 in baseball, which Wiemer is not, and he has less career WAR than Taylor. It's not unreasonable for the projection to spit out a comparable trade value for the 2 players.

The point is that if we trade Taylor we aren't getting anything near a top 100 prospect. Taylor has some value and Weimer could flame out (or be a 5 WAR a year guy...hopefully). I would guess we would get about the same value for Taylor that we did Renfroe. 

15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

From August 2019 to now, it's been accurate on 94.6% of real-life trades....It's not perfect by any stretch, but it's better than anything else that's publicly available. 

https://theathletic.com/3447510/2022/07/26/juan-soto-trade-values/

What does 94.6% accurate mean, 5.4% could be big gap depending on the data used  to define value(sorry I haven't read the article if it spells it out). 

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

The point is that if we trade Taylor we aren't getting anything near a top 100 prospect. Taylor has some value and Weimer could flame out (or be a 5 WAR a year guy...hopefully). I would guess we would get about the same value for Taylor that we did Renfroe.

Trades are always going to come down to fit and internal evaluations of a player. There's probably a team that values that back of the top 100 prospect like a top 50 prospect and others that value him like a top 200 prospect. Looking at what would be baffling trades including highly touted prospects, I like bringing up the Rays trading a package around a top 50 pitching prospect for Jose Martinez and a prospect in the 10-15 range in St. Louis' system. Nobody calls that trade the Matthew Liberatore trade or the Jose Martinez trade. It's the Randy Arozarena trade. Another one and one BTV got way wrong was the Urias and Lauer for Grisham and Davies.

[Jopal78]

Why would the Dodgers do that trade, they don't need either of those players. LA is already 4 deep in the rotation with terrific starters: Kerhsaw, Urias, Gonsolin and May.  They also have tremendous minor league SP depth with Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone in the upper minor leagues. Plus, they even still  have Walker Buehler on the comeback trail for 2024. 

Moreover, while Adames is a more productive player than Lux right now, that also comes with huge differences in cost (9.2 million to 700K) and service time remaining (2 years v. 4), and doesn't take into account Lux just turned 25 has 1000 fewer PAs experience than Willy. 

Sure, adding Burnes and Adames would make the Dodgers better in the short run but they're also a team that just won 111 games. I just don't see them selling of the next Blue wave to add two players who are very very good but aren't at positions of need for LA. 

[StearnsFTW]

Starting pitching is definitely a position of need for the Dodgers.  They may think they can handle it internally though.

Getting 2 years of Burnes cheap is a great way to get under the luxury tax to avoid the repeater tax and having exclusive negotiating rights in his hometown is not nothing either.

 

I think the timing is poor though because I think they're actually trying to duck the tax this year.

 

 

[UpandIn]

On 12/8/2022 at 12:45 PM, StearnsFTW said:

Yeah, I'd rather have Vargas than Lux myself.

Same. 

I'd be fine with just Vargas and then Miller, Stone, Pepiot and a couple of lower ranked arms.

I suspect the Dodgers could care less about the rankings though and they're probably not the priority for the Brewers either.  They probably value Ronan Kopp(for example) more than some much more highly rated prospects because of his spin rate. 

BUT for me, if you trade Burnes, just get back a few arms with high ceilings. And it ultimately likely won't be Miller, Stone, Pepiot, it'll be the guys in A ball and who we may have to wait a year or two. Otherwise, why trade for Burnes and Adames just to give away 30 years of control of highly ranked prospects? Regardless of the trade value chart?

[UpandIn]

On 12/9/2022 at 1:30 PM, StearnsFTW said:

Starting pitching is definitely a position of need for the Dodgers.  They may think they can handle it internally though.

Getting 2 years of Burnes cheap is a great way to get under the luxury tax to avoid the repeater tax and having exclusive negotiating rights in his hometown is not nothing either.

 

I think the timing is poor though because I think they're actually trying to duck the tax this year.

 

 

It's obviously their biggest area of need. They're losing Buehler(comparable with Burnes) Tyler Anderson who put up a 2.57 ERA and 4+ WAR, Gonsolin threw 130IP last year, the most he's ever thrown and struggled badly in the post-season. Heaney...who I think they're bringing back saw his ERA drop about 2.70 runs last year and he didn't start in the post-season.

And Kershaw is an all-time great, but not the pitcher he was.

So a pitcher like Burnes is just about their biggest need. Not saying they'd give up multiple MLB ready pitchers or the value we'd require, but...it's clearly a need. That's not a franchise that's playing to win Division Titles. It does seem obvious they're trying to get under the repeaters tax and again, waiting on a ruling regarding Bauer. They've got about 40M to stay below the tax.