Xander Bogaerts to Padres - 11 years, $280 million

[homer]

 

 

 

[UpandIn]

WHAT?

LOL...why? 11 and 280? Correa better stop sitting around!

Another contract going through age 41(or 42 actually). What did Correa cost? Because that feels like it was worth it if you were gonna spend that much money.

That's just stupid money...and I think he's a stud. Is this protection against Machado opting out? 

[owbc]

So as of right now the Padres have $700 million committed to shortstop. 
 

This is insanity.

[BallFour]

I see how teams are trying to get around the luxury tax, basically writing off the final couple years. We might be getting to 2012 NHL lockout type stuff when teams were handing out 14 year deals to keep their cap numbers low.

Padres fans are pretty lucky to have an owner like this. Looked up his net worth and it is $3 Billion. If they really are profitable with handing out these contracts as a mid market team then fans of most teams are getting absolutely duped by their owners.

[reillymcshane]

***. The Padres? Good for them. Wow

[UpandIn]

8 minutes ago, BallFour said:

I see how teams are trying to get around the luxury tax, basically writing off the final couple years. Padres fans are pretty lucky to have an owner like this. Looked up his net worth and it is $3 Billion. If they really are profitable with handing out these contracts as a mid market team then fans of most teams are getting absolutely duped by their owners.

The Padres are in a totally different situation from the Brewers, Cleveland, KC, Pitt...

They've got far more sources of revenue...and again, charge about 4X on average for a ticket to Petco. 

But also...yes, it'd be nice to have an owner who was worth 3B, not 600-700M. 

I don't think the Pads spending tells us anything about mid market team as they're an outlier as a mid-market team. 

[Brewcrew82]

Wow. This is the literal definition of "spending stupid money". True test will come when they try to extend Soto, who will probably get over half a billion dollars. 

[BallFour]

4 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

The Padres are in a totally different situation from the Brewers, Cleveland, KC, Pitt...

They've got far more sources of revenue...and again, charge about 4X on average for a ticket to Petco. 

But also...yes, it'd be nice to have an owner who was worth 3B, not 600-700M. 

I don't think the Pads spending tells us anything about mid market team as they're an outlier as a mid-market team. 

Far more sources of revenue sure which is why I am counting the owners 3 Billion net worth. If we are talking strictly baseball. And just by doing a quick search the Brewers and Padres had very similar revenues in 2021 and 2019. 

 

 

[UpandIn]

12 minutes ago, owbc said:

So as of right now the Padres have $700 million committed to shortstop. 
 

This is insanity.

A Billion if you wanna include Machado who could very easily be a SS in another timeline and came up as an elite defensive SS. 

Tatis-340
Machado-300
Bogaerts-280
Kim 28M
That's nearly a billion dollars

So I guess they move Kim to 2B?
Crownwnworth is their 1B. Gives them a pretty good defense...I think? I don't know who the hell plays where, but it's definitely a good lineup. 

Just a MASSIVE overpay. Again, I'll reiterate, if you were willing to go here for Xander, what would Correa have cost? Couldn't be that much more, right?

 

Also, they reportedly offered 400M over 10 years to Judge. I wonder if they turn their attention now to Soto's extension?

[UpandIn]

2 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Far more sources of revenue sure which is why I am counting the owners 3 Billion net worth. If we are talking strictly baseball. And just by doing a quick search the Brewers and Padres had very similar revenues in 2021 and 2019. 

 

 

Well...it's virtually impossible to know what their baseball revenues are, those are estimates, but the Padres real estate is what is giving them a MASSIVE edge compared to the Brewers. 

We've talked about this at length a few times, but the Padres opened their books a few years ago to show the money they were paying just in loans. It was enough to pay another MLB payroll. Pads fans were furious when they saw their revenue...and the ownership group promised when they were clear and refinanced the insanely bad deals they inherited and then paid them down, they'd spend on the team. 

Their revenue is not on the same planet as the Brewers and it's not just because the owner is worth 3B. It's because the Padres generate a lot of money they don't have to disclose from...that real estate. 

[BallFour]

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Well...it's virtually impossible to know what their baseball revenues are, those are estimates, but the Padres real estate is what is giving them a MASSIVE edge compared to the Brewers. 

We've talked about this at length a few times, but the Padres opened their books a few years ago to show the money they were paying just in loans. It was enough to pay another MLB payroll. Pads fans were furious when they saw their revenue...and the ownership group promised when they were clear and refinanced the insanely bad deals they inherited and then paid them down, they'd spend on the team. 

Their revenue is not on the same planet as the Brewers and it's not just because the owner is worth 3B. It's because the Padres generate a lot of money they don't have to disclose from...that real estate. 

Ya which is different than strictly baseball....which contributes to his net worth. which is exactly what I said. Thanks for the education lesson.

[UpandIn]

8 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Ya which is different than strictly baseball....which contributes to his net worth. which is exactly what I said. Thanks for the education lesson.

Dude...it's OWNED by the Padres...which contributes to THEIR revenue. They also own a big part of Petco...and large plots of land and real estate around the stadium. The team, not just the owner.

And you're welcome. 

 

This has been covered...so many times on here. From the Soto trade to the Judge offer, you're gonna have to go back and read the extended version if you want a more detailed lesson. 

Also, wouldn't "education lesson" be redundant unless I was explaining how they come up with curriculum in schools or something along those lines?

[Seth Stohs]

What do the Trea Turner (11-years, $300 million) and Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million) deals mean for any sort of long-term contract extension for Willy Adames... if anything? 

No, Adames isn't in the same category as those two... or Carlos Correa (who has to be really, really excited now), but he is definitely in a similar place as Dansby Swanson... Maybe that's the deal that the Brewers and Adames would look at more. 

Even so, Adames has two years of arbitration remaining... He would likely get somewhere around $25 million over the next two years... but after that, he could be looking at a 8-10 year deal at around $25 million per year. Would he consider signing an 8-year, $160 million deal right now? (AAV down because of the two arb years, and a little lower for the guaranteed money (as opposed to waiting two more years)

[Axman59]

The Padres expect Machado to opt out next year. He will be off the books if they decide not to re-sign.

I think this is Padres management pushing all their chips in for 2023. And the Dodgers, who have done almost nothing this offseason, will still finish ahead of the Padres due to their deep and strong farm system and very smart front office.

The Padres have quickly become my least liked NL team, despite the fact that they employ the imminently likeable Josh Hader.

[brewcrewdue80]

50 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

What do the Trea Turner (11-years, $300 million) and Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million) deals mean for any sort of long-term contract extension for Willy Adames... if anything? 

No, Adames isn't in the same category as those two... or Carlos Correa (who has to be really, really excited now), but he is definitely in a similar place as Dansby Swanson... Maybe that's the deal that the Brewers and Adames would look at more. 

Even so, Adames has two years of arbitration remaining... He would likely get somewhere around $25 million over the next two years... but after that, he could be looking at a 8-10 year deal at around $25 million per year. Would he consider signing an 8-year, $160 million deal right now? (AAV down because of the two arb years, and a little lower for the guaranteed money (as opposed to waiting two more years)

Um Bogaerts  has nearly a 130 OPS+ below 125ks 5 years running. Adames was at 112 last season. And 3 straight full season(19/21/22)above 150ks.  Back it down to 7yrs and 110mil.  Looks like Adames is projected around 21mil the next 2 seasons. 5yrs-90 mil nearly 20mil per. Considering Bogaerts with a better/longer track record didn't get 27mil avg while a FA, kinda hard to justify asking much higher. Bogaerts is in another level Adames hasn't touched.

 

Edit add-Looking at Dansby Swanson, and those numbers with defense are quite similar to Adames.  So I think Swanson's deal will range what Adames is looking at.(imagine 1.5-2mil avg below that AAV past next 2 years)

[Redd Vencher]

I'm feeling a lot more confident about my 8 year $132 M with 9th year option for an Adames extension I posted a few months ago.

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

What do the Trea Turner (11-years, $300 million) and Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million) deals mean for any sort of long-term contract extension for Willy Adames... if anything? 

No, Adames isn't in the same category as those two... or Carlos Correa (who has to be really, really excited now), but he is definitely in a similar place as Dansby Swanson... Maybe that's the deal that the Brewers and Adames would look at more. 

Even so, Adames has two years of arbitration remaining... He would likely get somewhere around $25 million over the next two years... but after that, he could be looking at a 8-10 year deal at around $25 million per year. Would he consider signing an 8-year, $160 million deal right now? (AAV down because of the two arb years, and a little lower for the guaranteed money (as opposed to waiting two more years)

I don't think they have anything to do with Adames. 

They're Free Agents and Adames isn't. Lindor and Tatis both got 340 and 345. But there are only so many teams wiling to spend. The Giants are the obvious ones. 

Both LAA teams are in a holding pattern. The Dodgers need to wait and see if they've gotta pay Bauer 60M from the last two years which would be well over 100M with the tax. 

The Angels already have a bloated payroll and are in the process of selling. The Cubs aren't really spending, almost certainly not for a Correa. 

I expect a couple wild signings by the Giants and then...the Twins might be the dark horse for Dansby, but with their two top prospect being MLB SS's at the upper levels...I don't see why. 

 

Anyway, love Willy, but I don't think he's established himself in their league and I wouldn't pay him that type of money.  If you can do that, you could take a run at Burnes who makes a lot more sense. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Complete and utter madness. Boegarts isn't a good defensive shortstop today. An 11 year deal?

Ick.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

The Padres are insane, sports in general are insane.  The owner is going to take a hit in the pocketbook on this one.  No way does he make $250 million next year to make pay roll for this team.  Reminds me of the Angels of the early 2000's.  That organization has gone through two or three ownership groups since.  What happens when Machado, Soto, Snell, Hader, and Darvish become free agents in the two years.  

 

What is happening to sports in general?  Contracts paying upwards of $50 million per year.  I couldn't possibly make this much money in my career.   No wonder why sports betting is allowed.  Just be care what you wish for sports leagues.  Someday is coming.

[MrTPlush]

Adames better start hitting the ball a bit better if he wants a 10 year contract averaging $25mil+. Bogarts/Correa/Turners of the world have put up years of OPS's north of .800...some over .900. Adames would have to go absolutely nuts the next two years to even have a shot at being offered a 10 year contract. He has two full years and they were .818 and .756. Neither of those figures are getting him some monster decade deal. His defense may be good, but that isn't what teams go crazy for. They want the offense.

If Adames is licking his chops at these deals he is delusional and should go to the batting cages to practice. Dansby Swanson will be a good comp of what he could maybe get if he puts another two good years. Swanson also lacks a lengthy track record, a lot of value credited to his defense, the same mid to upper .700 OPS type offensive profile, K machine, garbage OBP, and will hit FA at the same age. They are just about clones. For reference, many think he will get 6 years at about $115-$150mil.

Redd's 8/$132mil is probably not that far off what would be a realistic mutual deal if Swanson ends up getting that $150mil figure over 6 years. That is about $105mil for the 6 FA years for Adames (if you just chalk up the next two as what he would get anyway through arby). It isn't a huge discount, but there also isn't a huge amount of risk for Adames. Though his track record is almost nothing...so a poorly timed down year would be a total disaster. I want nothing to do with extending him...but I do think Redd's guesstimate is fairly realistic.

 

 

[homer]

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

In 11 years' time at the rate things are going with inflation, we might all be making ~$30 million a year.  I'm starting to wonder if the Padres' owner is planning to sell the team with all these crazy longterm contracts getting thrown around.  I think he paid roughly $800M for them in 2013ish, betting he'd make a tidy little profit if he sold right about now before all these bills really came due.

I'm just picturing the scene in Dumb and Dumber, when Lloyd is handing paper IOU's from Mary Swanson's briefcase to the bad guy after burning through all the money that was inside it.  Picturing the Pads owner with a pile of them in the office...."That's as good as money Fernando and Xander and Manny, those are IOUs"

[MrTPlush]

6 minutes ago, homer said:

 

Inaccurate, this infers they are still playing baseball. They will be on a beach in Malibu sipping margs by then.

[homer]

39 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Inaccurate, this infers they are still playing baseball. They will be on a beach in Malibu sipping margs by then.

That could be a softball field :)

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

The Padres traded away their future with the prospects now they will go through salary cap hell the next few years.  Have you ever heard of the saying borrowing from the future to pay the past?