Article: Brandon Drury is a Perfect Fit for the Brewers

[Tim Muma]

Brandon Drury would have been a terrific addition when the Milwaukee Brewers needed a bat at the 2022 trade deadline. We'll never know the offers on the table, but the San Diego Padres ponied up with the right prospect, and Milwaukee moved on. As a free agent, all he would cost is money, and he looks like a perfect fit.

 

There are many aspects to Brandon Drury's game that fit perfectly within the Milwaukee Brewers' philosophies. And without a rock-solid third baseman readily available for GM Matt Arnold on the free agent or trade markets, adding value in other ways makes sense. Drury isn't a star, and some might argue his numbers were extremely skewed by Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. While those assessments may be partially accurate, Drury offers plenty to the Brewers that would improve the club's lineup.

Undoubtedly, playing in a home run hitter's park in Cincy contributed to Drury's career-high 28 dingers in 2022. However, Great American Ballpark accounted for less than half (12) of his homers. A lot of his success came from simply getting a full-time opportunity. Last season was the first time Drury amassed more than 500 plate appearances in his career. Not surprisingly, he also had career-bests in RBI (87), runs scored (87), and extra-base hits (61). But it wasn't just about counting stats. Drury also posted a personal best .492 SLG and .813 OPS, good for a 122 OPS+ (meaning he was 22% better than the league average). His Statcast numbers show his strong suits in 2022

What is also encouraging to see is Drury's improvement over the past couple of years in making hard contact. An uptick in the frequency of hard-hit balls and average exit velocity shows a legit reason for enhanced numbers. Hitting the ball harder more consistently helped his batting average of balls in play (BABIP). Interestingly, despite his best production coming in 2022, that wasn't his best season for BABIP, which might indicate last year's stats were legitimate and not luck-based.

Producing against left-handed pitchers is another area where Drury can improve the Brewers' fortune. Most fans know how much Milwaukee has struggled against southpaws the last few seasons. And some may think didn't we try this "lefty masher" thing with Andrew McCutchen last season with little (if any) improvement? Yes, but Cutch was also 35 years old when the risk of a decline is much higher. Drury is only 30, and in the past two seasons, he has punished lefties, especially in the power department:

2021: .278/.297/.583/.881

2022: .299/.329/.626/.955

With the acquisition of Jesse Winker, Rowdy Tellez the current first baseman, and prospect Brice Turang possibly on the roster as left-handed bats at various positions, Drury would be another piece to complement the strong-side platoon. Therein lies the other perfect fit for the Brewers: positional versatility.

Drury can handle third base, second base, and first base defensively. He can even play a corner outfield spot in a pinch - maybe even better than Christian Yelich or Winker at this point. Assuming Milwaukee isn't adding a perennial All-Star bat to the lineup, platoons and matchups will again be the Crew's best option to optimize their offense. Moving a guy around the diamond like Drury also allows for strategic days off, injury management, and future roster moves if the Brewers look to make a deal in the offseason or at the trade deadline.

Adding Drury to the club also shouldn't break the bank. The MLB Trade Rumors staff predicted a two-year, $18 million deal for Drury. A $9 million average annual value (AAV) feels more than fair and accurate. However, with some of the contracts being handed out (Josh Bell at two years for $33 million), the Brewers might need to get creative. They could offer Drury two years at $19 million with a mutual option for a third year at $11 million, including a $3 million buyout. That would essentially guarantee Drury an $11 million AAV over the first two seasons (he would get the extra $3 million regardless).

So what concerns would people have about Drury? He did scuffle in the last couple of months when we went to San Diego. In fairness, almost every hitter who switched teams at the trade deadline also struggled to perform up to their previous levels. At the same time, he had nine doubles and eight home runs in 46 games with the Padres, suitable for a 109 OPS+. His defense also isn't spectacular at any position, and some might see him as redundant with Mike Brosseau already on the roster. Drury also doesn't help to diversify the Brewers' lineup overall since he, like others, strikes out plenty and owns a career .320 OBP. Plus, while $8-$10 million per season pales compared to other contracts, it could prohibit other moves.

I liked Drury a lot as a trade deadline acquisition with a hot bat this past season. Initially, he didn't seem like a great option (at that cost) for the Brewers in 2023 and beyond. But after a deeper look and seeing a lack of exciting offensive threats in Milwaukee's salary range, Drury actually fits well. Every player comes with his own set of risks, and it's up to the front office to figure out which ones will overcome those concerns to reap the rewards.

 

View full article

[DR28]

Yes please! Drury at 3B and Urias/Turang platoon at 2B, would very much improve our lineup.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, I don't hate the idea.  Good backup RHH 1B, obviously as well as 2b and 3b.

At the right price I'd like it.

 

[Devinep]

I wouldn’t mind Drury, but his continued breakout is far from a sure thing to continue. Plus, I don’t want Adames aka Javy Baez 2.0 hitting 2nd with a low OBP all-or-nothing approach, which Drury also has. That’s why I’d lean towards Justin Turner, who has more of the high-OBP approach this team needs and might be available for only a 1 year deal

[DR28]

2 minutes ago, Devinep said:

I wouldn’t mind Drury, but his continued breakout is far from a sure thing to continue. Plus, I don’t want Adames aka Javy Baez 2.0 hitting 2nd with a low OBP all-or-nothing approach, which Drury also has. That’s why I’d lean towards Justin Turner, who has more of the high-OBP approach this team needs and might be available for only a 1 year deal

Yea he might be... But at $15-$20 mil I bet.

[Lathund]

That statcast page is more of an argument *against* signing Drury than for. That's a league average xwOBA, and one of the larger differentials between wOBA and xwOBA in the league. Naturally the Statcast xstats aren't gospel, but it's not as if he has strong underlying metrics. And if a knock on the Brewers in 2022 was a "HR or nothing" approach with not enough focus on getting on base, then Drury really doesn't help with that. 

That being said, for a lefty masher to platoon with Tellez and (indirectly) with Turang it wouldn't be terrible at the right price, I just don't think it's that much of an upgrade. It really comes down to how much of his 2022 you think is repeatable. I don't think it really is, so I'm skeptical. 

[Devinep]

16 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Yea he might be... But at $15-$20 mil I bet.

The dodgers declined his option at 16 and if they don’t want to pay him, I doubt other teams value him at that level. Maybe 12-14 with an option for 2024 

[wallus]

While I agree that we need some help against LHP, it would not be wise to spend a lot to do it. I like Drury in theory but not if we spend all of the money we are planning to spend this offseason on him. I would rather upgrade at catcher as I would prefer VC to be the backup and I don't believe Felicano is ready/good enough.

[DR28]

12 minutes ago, wallus said:

While I agree that we need some help against LHP, it would not be wise to spend a lot to do it. I like Drury in theory but not if we spend all of the money we are planning to spend this offseason on him. I would rather upgrade at catcher as I would prefer VC to be the backup and I don't believe Felicano is ready/good enough.

Think we'll have to go trade route... Vazquez is looking for 4 yr deal...

But Murphy's trade cost is super high I guess... Sure Jansen would be high as well... James McCann I guess?

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, DR28 said:

Think we'll have to go trade route... Vazquez is looking for 4 yr deal...

But Murphy's trade cost is super high I guess... Sure Jansen would be high as well... James McCann I guess?

James McCann, as in the guy who's posted a -0.3 WAR the past two years and who posted a sparkling .538 OPS this year? Hard pass. It's Vazquez, Murphy, D'Arnaud, or Jansen or bust for me..

[wallus]

6 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Think we'll have to go trade route... Vazquez is looking for 4 yr deal...

But Murphy's trade cost is super high I guess... Sure Jansen would be high as well... James McCann I guess?

Yeah a trade is probably what we should do. I am a believer in Quero but he is probably 2 years away so a stop gap of at least 2 seasons would be nice. The Braves have 3 catchers, maybe we can swing a deal for one of them.

[tmwiese55]

This guy makes sense to me as they do need some RH coverage on all the lefties.  As I thought about it I remembered Brosseau though.  I guess I see more upside in Drury and sure I'd take both if we have the roster spots for them both.  But Brewers might very well think Brosseau can do what Drury can vs lefties for the like 2 mil or whatever they're paying him.  So they might think they've already covered this.

[JosephC]

Drury has 6 MLB seasons plus 1 day.  Lifetime 3.6 fWAR and 2.1 bWAR.  2022 he was 3.0 fWAR and 2.6 bWAR.  So for the 5 years prior to 2022, he was a 0.6 fWAR player (basically 0.1 WAR per season, or at replacement level) and a -0.5 bWAR player (below replacement level).

[JohnBriggs12]

Count me in.  I think the new rules will greatly benefit LH hitters and I am happy they acquired Winker to go along with Rowdy and Yelich..  But I think an upgrade over Urias is called for and Brosseau doesn't have the glove to be a regular.

[Robocaller]

I agree that 2022 Drury's bat would be a great addition for the Brewers.

I just don't know how likely 2023 Drury will be = 2022 Drury.

Over his career, he hasn't exactly been a LHP-killer. In his most-recent full year before 2022 (which is 2019), he did badly vs. lefties.

And he certainly doesn't help in the field.

2 years, $16M total contract is about the most that I'd consider. I think he'll want a longer contract.

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Count me in.  I think the new rules will greatly benefit LH hitters and I am happy they acquired Winker to go along with Rowdy and Yelich..  But I think an upgrade over Urias is called for and Brosseau doesn't have the glove to be a regular.

Drury bats RH.

[Tim Muma]

1 hour ago, JosephC said:

Drury has 6 MLB seasons plus 1 day.  Lifetime 3.6 fWAR and 2.1 bWAR.  2022 he was 3.0 fWAR and 2.6 bWAR.  So for the 5 years prior to 2022, he was a 0.6 fWAR player (basically 0.1 WAR per season, or at replacement level) and a -0.5 bWAR player (below replacement level).

I don't disagree there is some risk & his 2022 could be a mirage. However, plenty of guys "find it" for a few years mid-career when they know they will have full-time work. I believe his profile the last 2 seasons shows a window of higher performance for another year or two. It is a risk-reward play for sure.

The Brewers need another bat yet, unless you believe in Toro. The lineup still lacks enough reliable punch.

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Count me in.  I think the new rules will greatly benefit LH hitters and I am happy they acquired Winker to go along with Rowdy and Yelich..  But I think an upgrade over Urias is called for and Brosseau doesn't have the glove to be a regular.

Drury isn't an upgrade over Urias.