Article: Brewers Keep 18th Pick After First Draft Lottery

[Seth Stohs]

MLB held its first-ever Draft Lottery on Tuesday night at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. There was little chance that the Brewers would move up into the top six picks, but every once in a while, crazy miracles happen. Did the Brewers cash in on a miracle? Umm, no. 

One of the new developments in last offseason's Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was the beginning of a Draft Lottery like the NBA and NHL. Previously, the team with the worst record from the previous season was guaranteed the top overall pick. Now, the worst teams aren’t even guaranteed a top six pick, and those three teams have the same odds of getting the top pick (16.5%). At a high level, the idea is simply to discourage teams from tanking for the worst record. 

The 18 teams that missed the postseason all have a chance at the top overall pick. The Brewers were eliminated from the playoffs during the final games of the year and were the best team in terms of record that did not go to the playoffs. Because of that, they had just a 0.2% chance of grabbing the #1 overall pick. 

Additionally, there are restrictions on how often a team can participate in the lottery. Teams that don’t receive revenue sharing (large-market teams) can not receive a lottery pick in consecutive drafts. Revenue-sharing recipients (small-market teams) are prohibited from being awarded a lottery pick in three consecutive years. Teams prohibited from a lottery pick can’t receive higher than the 10th overall pick. Obviously that will not come into play until at least next year's lottery. 

MLB Draft Lottery Results
As expected, the 2023 MLB Draft order shifted because of the Draft Lottery. However, the Brewers kept the 18th overall pick. For 2022, the first 18 picks will follow this order: 
1. Pirates (Up 2)
2. Nationals  (Down 1)
3. Tigers (Up 3)
4. Rangers (Up 3)
5. Twins (Up 8)
6. A's (Down 4)
7. Reds (Down 3) 
8. Royals (Down 3)
9. Rockies (Down 1)
10. Marlins (Down 1)
11. Angels (Down 1)
12. D-Backs (Down 1)
13. Cubs (Down 1)
14. Red Sox
15. White Sox
16. Giants
17. Orioles
18. Brewers

Competitive Balance Round Pick
Earlier this week, MLB announced the Competitive Balance Draft picks to teams that fall in the bottom 10 in revenue or market size. Competitive Balance Round A takes place after the completion of the first round, and these picks are the only ones that clubs are allowed to trade. Minnesota can hang on to this top-40 pick, or it might be an intriguing piece to trade this winter. The Round A picks are as follows:
1. Mariners
2. Rays
3. Brewers
4. Twins
5. Marlins
6. Tigers
7. Reds
8. A’s

General Thoughts
First, it's important to note that the Brewers will have the 18th and 33rd overall picks in the 2023 draft. In 2022, the Slot value of those picks were $3,659,800 for the 18th pick, and the 33rd overall pick value was $2,315,100. 

The Twins were really the big winner in this first MLB Draft Lottery. Despite having just a 0.9% chance to take the #1 pick, the Twins did jump into the Top 6 and will have the #1 overall pick. The value of the fifth pick compared to the 13th overall pick is about $2.1 million. Not only will the Twins have a Top 5 pick, but they have the money to potentially maneuver the system to add a high-ceiling type in a later round. 

Washington Nationals  55-107
Oakland A's  60-102
Pittsburgh Pirates  62-100

In the past, that would have been the draft order, about 16.5% The Pirates jumped up and took the top pick. The Nationals just fell one spot, so they will take the #2 pick. The A's, on the other hand, dropped four spots and will selected sixth overall. Why? Because the Tigers and the Rangers both jumped three spots, and the Twins jumped eight spots. 

How do you feel about the new draft lottery. It has been successful in the other leagues. Honestly, it was really fun to watch. It was exciting to see former MLB veteran Raul Ibanez announce the draft order. Even though the Brewers stayed in the same spot (which was too be expected), do you feel like the system can be a success? Do you think it will keep teams from intentionally tanking? (Injuries, playing inexperienced players and a team's schedule obviously factor into the W-L record as well.)

Brewers' Recent First-Round Picks 
To thins point, the Brewers haven't had a lot of MLB success from recent first-round picks. However, several of those players will likely play a much bigger role on the team starting in 2023 and 2024. 

In 2022, the team took Coastal Carolina shortstop Eric Brown, Jr., with the 27th overall pick. After signing, he reached Low-A Carolina. It will be interesting to see how quickly he can move up the ladder. 

Speaking of moving up, the Brewers drafted outfielder Sal Frelick out of Boston College with the 15th overall pick in 2021. He was the Brewer Fanatic Minor League Hitter of the Year. He continually got better as he moved from Wisconsin, to Biloxi, and ended the season playing very well for two months in Nashville. 

With the 33rd overall pick in 2021, the Brewers took Wright State second baseman Tyler Black. He also missed some time in 2022 due to injury, but when he played, he was solid for the TimberRattlers, spending time at all three middle-of-the-field positions. He ended the season with six weeks in the Arizona Fall League. 

2020 was a strange draft because of the pandemic. Most high school and college seasons were cancelled, and the draft was just five round. However, the Brewers took UCLA outfielder Garrett Mitchell with the 20th overall pick. He struggled early this season and then got hurt, but when he came back, he was pushed to Triple-A, and in late August, he was called up to the Brewers. He played well enough to be selected the Brewer Fanatic Rookie of the Year. 

In 2019, the Brewers took left-handed pitcher Ethan Small with the 28th overall pick out of Mississippi State. He spent most of the season at Nashville, but he made two starts for the Brewers and should get more time in 2023. 

2018 top pick is the only one from the high school ranks. With the 21st overall pick, The Crew selected shortstop Brice Turang out of Santiago High School in Corona, California. He spent all of 2022 at Nashville and was added to the 40-man roster in November. 

Keston Hiura was the Brewers top pick in 2017 out of UC-Irvine. While 2022 was an up-and-down year, there is a lot of ability here. 

The Brewers could get some contributions from each of these players in 2023 and beyond. This is even more impressive when you consider they've only had one pick in the Top 14 once. That is a credit to the scouting staff. 

What thoughts do you have on the first-ever MLB Draft lottery? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Brewer Fanatic Gift Ideas
FOCO is back again with a new collection of bobbleheads, but this time with a few twists. Their brand-new Holiday Bobble Bros collection is in stock and ready to ship ahead of the holidays. Unlike most of FOCO's bobbleheads, these are not limited and retail at a much lower price for just $30. This makes them the perfect stocking stuffer and a great addition to any Brewers fan’s home. 

The collection features team mascots wearing reindeer themed hats. They are also sporting a scarf with a baseball and bat in hand. The Billy Buffalo version is in a seated position and is wearing his team jersey. If you are familiar with some of FOCO's other bobbleheads, you will quickly notice that these don’t have a base, making these really stand out from the rest of their offering. 

Like all FOCO bobbleheads, each one is handcrafted and hand-painted so no two are exactly the same. As mentioned before, these are not limited and are in stock ready to ship now. They stand at just 4in tall so they should fit in any spot you’d want to display them. Don’t wait to pick up the Milwaukee Brewers Bobble Bro Mascot Bobblehead for yourself or as gift for the upcoming holidays!

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[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Additionally, there are restrictions on how often a team can participate in the lottery. Teams that don’t receive revenue sharing (large-market teams) can not receive a lottery pick in consecutive drafts. Revenue-sharing recipients (small-market teams) are prohibited from being awarded a lottery pick in three consecutive years. Teams prohibited from a lottery pick can’t receive higher than the 10th overall pick. Obviously that will not come into play until at least next year's lottery. 

 

What do you mean by this? If the same team picks (say) 16, 7, and 18  in three consecutive years, in the next year they have to draft #10 or later?  Or do you just mean the first 6 picks of the draft as a "lottery pick."  Because 10th overall pick IS a lottery pick.

 

[MrTPlush]

5 hours ago, Robocaller said:

What do you mean by this? If the same team picks (say) 16, 7, and 18  in three consecutive years, in the next year they have to draft #10 or later?  Or do you just mean the first 6 picks of the draft as a "lottery pick."  Because 10th overall pick IS a lottery pick.

 

1-6 are lottery picks. Those are the ones being drawn for. 

The Tigers/Rangers/Nationals will all be picking #10 or worse next year, regardless of record. As I imagine all of them are considered large markets. If they are #10 or worse to begin with it won't matter, outside of not being eligible to try and hop into the Top 6. 

Hypothetically, if all those teams ended up in the same draft slots next year, I believe they would get slotted at #10-#12...then whoever was actually #10-#12 would get shifted forward. Then lottery odds would be set for the eligible teams. Those three ineligible teams could then pick even worse if a team behind them wins a lottery spot. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

1-6 are lottery picks. Those are the ones being drawn for. 

The Tigers/Rangers/Nationals will all be picking #10 or worse next year, regardless of record. As I imagine all of them are considered large markets. If they are #10 or worse to begin with it won't matter, outside of not being eligible to try and hop into the Top 6. 

Hypothetically, if all those teams ended up in the same draft slots next year, I believe they would get slotted at #10-#12...then whoever was actually #10-#12 would get shifted forward. Then lottery odds would be set for the eligible teams. Those three ineligible teams could then pick even worse if a team behind them wins a lottery spot. 

This is my understanding as well. It's pretty complicated but makes some sense to me. The lottery is only 1-6, though teams 7-18 can break into the top six, as the Twins did this year.

The one thing I don't fully understand is are the Twins considered a "lottery team" because they broke into the top six this year, despite having the 13th best record? Does this count against one of their three consecutive lottery picks?

[BallFour]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is my understanding as well. It's pretty complicated but makes some sense to me. The lottery is only 1-6, though teams 7-18 can break into the top six, as the Twins did this year.

The one thing I don't fully understand is are the Twins considered a "lottery team" because they broke into the top six this year, despite having the 13th best record? Does this count against one of their three consecutive lottery picks?

I believe it does

[UpandIn]

11 hours ago, Robocaller said:

What do you mean by this? If the same team picks (say) 16, 7, and 18  in three consecutive years, in the next year they have to draft #10 or later?  Or do you just mean the first 6 picks of the draft as a "lottery pick."  Because 10th overall pick IS a lottery pick.

 

I don't really understand what revenue sharing teams means at this point. You read part of the 2018 CBA and it was all the teams that didn't go over the tax. 

It also says the Athletics were being phased out of the teams in the revenue sharing recipients and now they're back in that group. 

It seems like it has to mean different standards with regard to which teams are part of the 48% of revenue that gets divided up vs which teams get the competitive balance picks, but the MLB CBA is not all that clear to me. The NFL and NBAs is a lot more straight forward. The rules with the local TV deals and how much each team has to pay from their own deals and how it's impacted by the "risk" they take...it's a lot to sift through.

[brewcrewdue80]

On 12/7/2022 at 11:17 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is my understanding as well. It's pretty complicated but makes some sense to me. The lottery is only 1-6, though teams 7-18 can break into the top six, as the Twins did this year.

The one thing I don't fully understand is are the Twins considered a "lottery team" because they broke into the top six this year, despite having the 13th best record? Does this count against one of their three consecutive lottery picks?

The way I'm reading the OP, I'd definitely believe the teams who pick 1-6 are the teams that aren't allowed on the following seasons.  I could see how a 13th place team moving in to top 6 and having a losing season the following where they were/are more likely to pick in top 6, arguing that they should be allowed to stay but I mean they would only drop less than 6 picks?  How you going to win the argument when you were just awarded an earlier pick the year before.  

It's a great move in the right direction to penalize a team tanking multiple seasons in a row, to go with the rewards for playing a top 100 prospect from the moment a season begins, to the prospect gaining a full season service time finishing top 2.  Tanking teams wouldn't want to play their top prospects until forced by the prospect.  Kris Bryant the full example not being played in Sept and held back even further from Opening day just to gain the 7th season team control while tanking that season before. 

I would think top prospects are called up earlier now with this change for the better for baseball and fans.

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

The way I'm reading the OP, I'd definitely believe the teams who pick 1-6 are the teams that aren't allowed on the following seasons.  I could see how a 13th place team moving in to top 6 and having a losing season the following where they were/are more likely to pick in top 6, arguing that they should be allowed to stay but I mean they would only drop less than 6 picks?  How you going to win the argument when you were just awarded an earlier pick the year before.  

It's a great move in the right direction to penalize a team tanking multiple seasons in a row, to go with the rewards for playing a top 100 prospect from the moment a season begins, to the prospect gaining a full season service time finishing top 2.  Tanking teams wouldn't want to play their top prospects until forced by the prospect.  Kris Bryant the full example not being played in Sept and held back even further from Opening day just to gain the 7th season team control while tanking that season before. 

I would think top prospects are called up earlier now with this change for the better for baseball and fans.

Not all teams are bumped from the top six lottery after one season. Large market teams can only be a lottery pick one time, it is disqualified from a second consecutive lottery pick. Mid and small market teams are allowed two consecutive lottery picks and are disqualified from a third.

Pretty sure that’s how it works, anyway. I read about it when it happened so my memory is a little fuzzy. 

[jay87shot]

Not that I know much or do a lot of scouting in advance of the draft here are a few guys that interest me based on mlb.com scouting reports and rankings.

P Thomas White  Big left-handed HS pitcher, mid 90's heater and lots of room to grow. 

SS Matt Shaw   He is probably one of the safest picks as far as bats go, he may be iffy to stay at short but would be a great 2B if nothing else. Looks like Tyler Black with more power and speed.

P Bryce Eldridge 1B/RHP  A high school 6'7" kid who throws mid-90's, I like that he can play 1st and pitch. My guess is he has more value as a P and you would start him there and maybe bat occasionally the 1st few years.

P Travis Sykora  RHP Another big 6'6" 220 pound high schooler with big heat. It seems like our front office likes tall pitchers based on the past few drafts.

C/SS/OF Cole Carigg   Talk about utility star, managers wet dream. He has advanced hit, speed, and defense tools all around the field. Maybe like a Turang style player who can catch and more OF experience. I always like reaching on a guy like this and signing below slot and then finding the highest ceiling arm later with the saved money.