Where will our Rookies Play in 2023?

[Redd Vencher]

@igor67You can filter by rookies on Fangraphs. Here are the number of rookie hitters with 400+ PA by league and year since 2000.

2022 9 AL 7 NL

2021 6 AL 6 NL

2019 8 AL 10 NL

2018 6 AL 7 NL

2017 9 AL 6 NL

2016 5 AL 3 NL

2015 9 AL 13 NL

2014 9 AL 3 NL 1 Both*

2013 4 AL 8 NL

2012 3 AL 8 NL

2011 5 AL 6 NL

2010 3 AL 10 NL

2009 4 AL 6 NL

2008 10 AL 7 NL

2007 8 AL 7 NL

2006 5 AL 14 NL

2005 12 AL 5 NL

2004 6 AL 8 NL

2003 11 AL 8 NL

2002 7 AL 4 NL

2001 10 AL 4 NL

2000 5 AL 7 NL 1 Both**

Averages to 7 per year in each league.

*Yangervis Solarte played for the Yankees and Padres his rookie season.

**Melvin Mora played for the Mets and the Orioles his rookie season.

Here's the same span for rookie pitchers with at least 100 IP.

2022 6 AL 6 NL

2021 12 AL 8 NL

2019 7 AL 8 NL

2018 5 AL 8 NL

2017 3 AL 9 NL

2016 4 AL 11 NL

2015 8 AL 8 NL

2014 13 AL 4 NL

2013 3 AL 10 NL

2012 13 AL 6 NL

2011 8 AL 5 NL

2010 4 AL 8 NL

2009 14 AL 7 NL 1 Both*

2008 8 AL 7 NL 1 Both**

2007 7 AL 9 NL

2006 8 AL 14 NL

2005 7 AL 5 NL

2004 4 AL 0 NL

2003 7 AL 10 NL

2002 11 AL 11 NL

2001 10 AL 10 NL

2000 5 AL 10 NL

Averages to 8 per year in each league.

*Clayton Richard played for the White Sox and Padres his rookie season.

**Sean Gallagher played for the Cubs and A's his rookie season.

On average, there's 15 players that play enough to get consideration for ROY. There's more like 5-10 that perform well enough to truly get into the ROY conversation. If you think a prospect on multiple top 100 prospect lists entering the season is good enough to warrant the playing time, it behooves the team to start them in the majors within the timeframe to get the extra pick. If the prospect struggles, they can always be sent back down to get that extra year back.

[MrTPlush]

42 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

@igor67You can filter by rookies on Fangraphs. Here are the number of rookie hitters with 400+ PA by league and year since 2000.

2022 9 AL 7 NL

2021 6 AL 6 NL

2019 8 AL 10 NL

2018 6 AL 7 NL

2017 9 AL 6 NL

2016 5 AL 3 NL

2015 9 AL 13 NL

2014 9 AL 3 NL 1 Both*

2013 4 AL 8 NL

2012 3 AL 8 NL

2011 5 AL 6 NL

2010 3 AL 10 NL

2009 4 AL 6 NL

2008 10 AL 7 NL

2007 8 AL 7 NL

2006 5 AL 14 NL

2005 12 AL 5 NL

2004 6 AL 8 NL

2003 11 AL 8 NL

2002 7 AL 4 NL

2001 10 AL 4 NL

2000 5 AL 7 NL 1 Both**

Averages to 7 per year in each league.

*Yangervis Solarte played for the Yankees and Padres his rookie season.

**Melvin Mora played for the Mets and the Orioles his rookie season.

Here's the same span for rookie pitchers with at least 100 IP.

2022 6 AL 6 NL

2021 12 AL 8 NL

2019 7 AL 8 NL

2018 5 AL 8 NL

2017 3 AL 9 NL

2016 4 AL 11 NL

2015 8 AL 8 NL

2014 13 AL 4 NL

2013 3 AL 10 NL

2012 13 AL 6 NL

2011 8 AL 5 NL

2010 4 AL 8 NL

2009 14 AL 7 NL 1 Both*

2008 8 AL 7 NL 1 Both**

2007 7 AL 9 NL

2006 8 AL 14 NL

2005 7 AL 5 NL

2004 4 AL 0 NL

2003 7 AL 10 NL

2002 11 AL 11 NL

2001 10 AL 10 NL

2000 5 AL 10 NL

Averages to 8 per year in each league.

*Clayton Richard played for the White Sox and Padres his rookie season.

**Sean Gallagher played for the Cubs and A's his rookie season.

On average, there's 15 players that play enough to get consideration for ROY. There's more like 5-10 that perform well enough to truly get into the ROY conversation. If you think a prospect on multiple top 100 prospect lists entering the season is good enough to warrant the playing time, it behooves the team to start them in the majors within the timeframe to get the extra pick. If the prospect struggles, they can always be sent back down to get that extra year back.

This doesn’t include relief pitchers, which have won the award and do garner votes.

Sure, if they struggle A LOT you can send them down. However, if Turang is sporting a 90 OPS+ or something there is likely no reasonable explanation of why you are sending him down. Not unless you are replacing him at the deadline. If a player is serviceable, sending him down isn’t going to be all that possible.

A draft pick has nowhere near the value as an extra year of service time. It’s not close. If we hold a guy back he would need to finish Top 2 for them to gain the year of service time anyway. From some quick research that likely means a hitter will need to be floating an .800 OPS or better. Below that and very little chance of being Top 2. It also makes a massive difference whether or not you are a hyped prospects (Top 20 or even Top 10). Those prospects just naturally get more attention and more votes. So Turang and his .772 OPS at AAA and career .745 OPS has an incredibly unlikely chance of being in the Top 2 or Top 3 conversation. Sal Frelick has enough prospect hype and high enough ceiling…he could potentially have a shot to be in that conversation.

A lot can depend on the year though. I don’t know how many Top 15 prospects are set to debut early this year…but the years you see multiple of those guys ready to throw up .900+ OPS’s really could alter the rest of the prospect worlds chances.

[Redd Vencher]

19 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

This doesn’t include relief pitchers, which have won the award and do garner votes.

Sure, if they struggle A LOT you can send them down. However, if Turang is sporting a 90 OPS+ or something there is likely no reasonable explanation of why you are sending him down. Not unless you are replacing him at the deadline. If a player is serviceable, sending him down isn’t going to be all that possible.

A draft pick has nowhere near the value as an extra year of service time. It’s not close. If we hold a guy back he would need to finish Top 2 for them to gain the year of service time anyway. From some quick research that likely means a hitter will need to be floating an .800 OPS or better. Below that and very little chance of being Top 2. It also makes a massive difference whether or not you are a hyped prospects (Top 20 or even Top 10). Those prospects just naturally get more attention and more votes. So Turang and his .772 OPS at AAA and career .745 OPS has an incredibly unlikely chance of being in the Top 2 or Top 3 conversation. Sal Frelick has enough prospect hype and high enough ceiling…he could potentially have a shot to be in that conversation.

A lot can depend on the year though. I don’t know how many Top 15 prospects are set to debut early this year…but the years you see multiple of those guys ready to throw up .900+ OPS’s really could alter the rest of the prospect worlds chances.

There's 5 ROY RP (2001 Sassaki, 2005 Street, 2009 Bailey, 2010 Feliz, and 2011 Kimbrel) and 4 more top 3 (2004 Takatsu and Otsuka, 2006 Papelbon, and 2014 Betances) in the 22 year sample, and they were all over a decade ago outside of Betances. (5.6% of available spots) The player doesn't have to win the award to get the draft pick. A top 3 finish is sufficient.

Unless MLB, BA, or ESPN reverse course, Turang won't be eligible for PPI.

There's plenty of sub .800 top 3 ROY finishes as well. I can dig through to get the actual percentage later.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think there is a decent chance Turang starts in AAA, more because I think they might give Toro a look early on than any service time shenanigans.

[igor67]

As I had indicated in my original post there is a time to mess around for the extra year of service time, but I also indicated that because high draft picks do tend to make the big leagues at a pretty good rate the extra draft pick is worth more total service time. What the possible compensation does is my estimation is make the straight-up value of the two approaches close enough that you will end up factoring in other considerations before making the call-up. Like perceived chances of winning. For example a player like Taylor was when we finally called him up would have a very small chance of ROY, so trying to hold him for an extra year is potentially quite valuable, cheap effective utility types with options help fill the roster very economically. But your Braun, Fielder, types you give them a shot when they are ready and maybe build that good will to get all the things: Extra pick, immediate help for the team, good will leading to an early extension. Weimer, Felick, and Chourio for example I'd be worried about even in a smaller number of ABs them earning the year of service time anyway. Not that I can ballpark those odds but in a shorter span of ABs Frelick becomes more likely to hit for a silly batting average. Weimer could certainly have a great couple of months and hit a boatload of HRs before pitchers adjust.

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

There's 5 ROY RP (2001 Sassaki, 2005 Street, 2009 Bailey, 2010 Feliz, and 2011 Kimbrel) and 4 more top 3 (2004 Takatsu and Otsuka, 2006 Papelbon, and 2014 Betances) in the 22 year sample, and they were all over a decade ago outside of Betances. (5.6% of available spots) The player doesn't have to win the award to get the draft pick. A top 3 finish is sufficient.

Unless MLB, BA, or ESPN reverse course, Turang won't be eligible for PPI.

There's plenty of sub .800 top 3 ROY finishes as well. I can dig through to get the actual percentage later.

The fact, as a Brewers fan, you missed Devin Williams in all that research…is incredible.

Also, I am aware there are some Top 2 or Top 3 finishes below a .800 OPS. I found a few at .775 in recent history. It’s not common though and you would exactly expect it going into the year. 

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

The fact, as a Brewers fan, you missed Devin Williams in all that research…is incredible.

Also, I am aware there are some Top 2 or Top 3 finishes below a .800 OPS. I found a few at .775 in recent history. It’s not common though and you would exactly expect it going into the year. 

I didn't miss Devin Williams because I left 2020 out of the sample as it wasn't a full season. 

[Robocaller]

17 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I think there is a decent chance Turang starts in AAA, more because I think they might give Toro a look early on than any service time shenanigans.

I think they acquired Toro and Miller strictly to facilitate such service time shenanigans.

[Robocaller]

19 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

@igor67You can filter by rookies on Fangraphs. Here are the number of rookie hitters with 400+ PA by league and year since 2000.

[snip]

Here's the same span for rookie pitchers with at least 100 IP.

[snip]

This is irrelevant. The only thing I could find as requirements to win rookie of the year are that the player started the season as a rookie, and exceeded rookie limits during the year (so 130 AB or 50 IP).

If a guy came in and hit .390 in 250 ABs with 30 HRs, they're going to be ROY.

But to earn the extra pick, the player has to have enough days of service time (172 days, iirc). So, almost all of those guys will have your 400+ PAs unless they sat on the bench most of the season.

[Robocaller]

16 hours ago, igor67 said:

As I had indicated in my original post there is a time to mess around for the extra year of service time, but I also indicated that because high draft picks do tend to make the big leagues at a pretty good rate the extra draft pick is worth more total service time. What the possible compensation does is my estimation is make the straight-up value of the two approaches close enough that you will end up factoring in other considerations before making the call-up. Like perceived chances of winning. For example a player like Taylor was when we finally called him up would have a very small chance of ROY, so trying to hold him for an extra year is potentially quite valuable, cheap effective utility types with options help fill the roster very economically. But your Braun, Fielder, types you give them a shot when they are ready and maybe build that good will to get all the things: Extra pick, immediate help for the team, good will leading to an early extension. Weimer, Felick, and Chourio for example I'd be worried about even in a smaller number of ABs them earning the year of service time anyway. Not that I can ballpark those odds but in a shorter span of ABs Frelick becomes more likely to hit for a silly batting average. Weimer could certainly have a great couple of months and hit a boatload of HRs before pitchers adjust.

Braun was called up on May 25. Prince was called up late in 2005, so he'd still be a rookie in 2006.

[Redd Vencher]

39 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

This is irrelevant. The only thing I could find as requirements to win rookie of the year are that the player started the season as a rookie, and exceeded rookie limits during the year (so 130 AB or 50 IP).

If a guy came in and hit .390 in 250 ABs with 30 HRs, they're going to be ROY.

But to earn the extra pick, the player has to have enough days of service time (172 days, iirc). So, almost all of those guys will have your 400+ PAs unless they sat on the bench most of the season.

There's only 15 (11.4%) instances of top 3 finishes in ROY with less than 400 PA, and one of them was Ohtani who also had 50+ IP his rookie year. Only 2 (1.5%) of those 15 had less than 300 PA. (2006 Francoeur and 2016 Sanchez) 400 PA and 100 IP seems to be a pretty reasonable cutoff when analyzing this question. Obviously, an outlier performance can still get in the top 3, but you're not going to make a decision expecting an outlier performance to happen.