Trea Turner to Phillies - 11 years, $300 million

[homer]

 

[Brewcrew82]

Have fun with that Phillies once Turner loses his speed...

[reillymcshane]

Wow. That's a lot of money. At least they can move him to 2B down the road.

 

[StearnsFTW]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Have fun with that Phillies once Turner loses his speed...

First thought I had.  Paying a guy  like him until he's 40 seems not ideal.

[MrTPlush]

Exact kind of guy to not sign at 30 years old. A good reason I don't want Adames long term. Just not a wise type of player to sign.

[Thurston Fluff]

File this one in the stupid signing the blows up in the team's face while unnecessarily increasing the cost of every other free agent contract for little to no gain what so ever.

[jerichoholicninja]

And people want the Brewers to "go for it" and "make a splash" in free agency? The Verlander deal is the only one so far that hasn't made me laugh at how bad it will turn out.

[homer]

16 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

And people want the Brewers to "go for it" and "make a splash" in free agency? The Verlander deal is the only one so far that hasn't made me laugh at how bad it will turn out.

It does make me wonder what kind of contracts would satisfy the "go for it" crowd. 

 

But by the same token, if the Phillies win a single World Series with Turner is that worth it?

[wibadgers23]

Yeah you can pretty much cross off the top 20 or 25 free agents available every year.  The Brewers aren't going to spend that kind of money unless something weird happens and it's a one year, prove it type of deal.

[MrTPlush]

22 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yeah you can pretty much cross off the top 20 or 25 free agents available every year.  The Brewers aren't going to spend that kind of money unless something weird happens and it's a one year, prove it type of deal.

We have given Braun over $100mil and Yelich over $200mil. Even Cain was approaching $100mil. 

They can spend big bucks here and there, just not often. Are they going to compete for $300mil contracts and $40mil+ yearly average? Well no...but they can definitely chase after All Star level players in FA occasionally.

For the most part, I think the Brewers have been wise enough to know it isn't the greatest idea.

[brewerfan82]

2 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yeah you can pretty much cross off the top 20 or 25 free agents available every year.  The Brewers aren't going to spend that kind of money unless something weird happens and it's a one year, prove it type of deal.

I'd put the "we ain't gonna be able to pay for that guy" threshold closer to the top 5-10 free agents, depending on the year.

 - Two years ago Wong was the 13th highest paid player by total contract and 22nd by AAV
 - The same year, JBJ was 15th in total contract and 13th by AAV
 - In 2019/20, Avasail Garcia was 18th in total contract and 20th in AAV
 - In 2018/19, Grandal was 5th by AAV
 - In 2017/18, Cain was 5th in total contract and 8th in AAV.

I agree that the top guys are out of reach for the Brewers, but the prices do drop pretty quickly into the realm of possibility after the first few guys each year.

[Robocaller]

I think in most cases, contracts that run longer than 7 years are expected to be pretty bad overpays for the last years of the contract. Alex Rodriguez's contract with TX was an obvious exception.

[UpandIn]

4 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I'd put the "we ain't gonna be able to pay for that guy" threshold closer to the top 5-10 free agents, depending on the year.

 - Two years ago Wong was the 13th highest paid player by total contract and 22nd by AAV
 - The same year, JBJ was 15th in total contract and 13th by AAV
 - In 2019/20, Avasail Garcia was 18th in total contract and 20th in AAV
 - In 2018/19, Grandal was 5th by AAV
 - In 2017/18, Cain was 5th in total contract and 8th in AAV.

I agree that the top guys are out of reach for the Brewers, but the prices do drop pretty quickly into the realm of possibility after the first few guys each year.

And in '17/18 the Brewers had an offer on the table for Darvish that was bigger than the one for Cain. 

I don't know why these deals are so surprising. 

Turner got 27 AAV. So he took the longer deal with the lower AAV from a team that just lost in the WS. That really doesn't seem crazy to me. There are people arguing he hurt Correa, Swanson and Boegart's by taking "just" 27 a year. I'm sure he could have gotten 35M a year over 5-6 years. Is that really that much better? He'll obviously lose value as he loses his speed, but he's still a good hitter, these deals always look like they're going to be bad the final few years...no matter who it is, Pujols, Carbrera...this is just part of being arguably the top position player on the market(outside of Judge). 

Judge is almost certainly going to get a deal that's stupid the final few years as well...or he gets the shorter 6 year 240M type deal. 

Once you get past the top tier and the impatient teams, things settle down and get a bit more reasonable(just a BIT more). 

[sveumrules]

MLBTR reporting the Padres offered Trea 342 million.

Guess he was still miffed they traded him away in the first place.

[monty57]

There are teams for which the luxury tax is a hinderance that keeps them from spending hundreds of millions more on payroll, so they just rake in profits even after signing deals like this, and there are teams for which the luxury tax is a pipe dream, and they're breakeven with a payroll that isn't close to the luxury tax.

As long as MLB feels that this is a fair system, then fans of small-revenue teams just have to grin and bear it. We can't operate like big market teams. We have to trade away most of our good players when they near free agency and stockpile as much young talent as we can. Verlander, Turner and deGrom combine to make more than our entire team. There's no way we can sign/extend good players and spend our way to a title.

The length of this deal isn't something I'd recommend, but the money isn't anything out of the ordinary for top players today. It's just something that small market teams can't match. But, we'll still get bombarded with stories about how Burnes can't understand why the Brewers aren't offering him an extension, and how Lauer is upset that the Brewers won't "try to win."