Brewers lineup vs LHed pitchers...

[UpandIn]

Brewers projected lineup next year at this point. I cut and pasted this from another thread, but he had Christian Vazquez as the catcher. Makes sense, nice upgrade. 

Looks like a versatile, athletic lineup that has speed up and down the lineup, exceptional contact skills. Some power. Guys like Adames and Winker were both elite hitters in 2021 in the NLC and should bounce back(Adames just in terms of BA and OBP). Kinda given up on Yelich coming back with the power, but...I do think he should benefit more than most from the limits on the shift. 

Our Rotation is obviously as good as anyone if healthy.

Defense, up the middle, outstanding. Turang and Adames. OF, Frelick and Mitchell are both CFers. Depending on who you listen to or what you read, Frelick is an outstanding CFer who gets good jumps but just doesn't have a good arm to he's a capable CFer. Mitchell is like a create a player in terms of athletic attributes. I didn't think he was great going back on balls last year, but I think that was just Miller Park and needing to get used to the OF wall. 

HOWEVER...the problem with this lineup. All the LHHs. The Brewers were among the worst teams in Baseball vs left handers. Their best hitters vs lefties last season;

Hunter Renfroe at ~.840
Jace Peterson-.718
Andrew McCutchen .738 
Luis Urias .752
 

1B - Tellez (L) .644 OPS vs LHP
2B - Turang (L) .782 vs LHP(reverse splits) in AAA.
SS - Adamas (R) .699 OPS vs LHP
3B - Urias (R) .752 OPS
LF - Yelich (L) .694 OPS
CF - Mitchell (L) 1.000 OPS in 5 PAs, .892 OPS in AAA
RF - Frelick (L)-.BA: .324 vs lefties, .333 vs righties OPS .875 vs L, .885 vs R
DH - Winker (L) - .794 OPS in the worst year of his career, career OPS vs LHPers .661

OF - Taylor(.721), Ruiz (.465, 1.365 in 45 PAs in AAA)
INF - Toro(.532 OPS, .559 career), Brousseau(.764 OPS/.832 OPS for his career).
C -?

The three rookies are all lefties. All three seem to have good approaches vs lefties, but they're still lefties and they're still most importantly rookies.

But that's 6 lefties among our 8 current projected starters with some bench players who are our platoon options. 

 

I brought this up when we traded Renfroe, and I understand the logic...he was expensive and Frelick was a good bet to replace his WAR for ~10M less. 
I'm also thrilled they picked up Wong's option. As soon as he had that 3HR game and his OPS jumped up 20 points, I thought there was a good chance we'd be able to get a good return(or at least be able to get out of the 2M we owed in a buyout looking at the 2B market), but a career .270/.374/.463 slash line AFTER a terrible down year...that's an outstanding return. 

But are we confident this is a lineup that's going to be able to help us fix our issues vs left handed pitchers next year? And I understand...we can't have a perfect lineup, there should be some RHed hitters who are available as the year goes on, we'll get a better idea of where Wiemer, Ruiz, the three rookies, even Yelich and Tellez are with the shift(though that's going to help a lot of lefties). 

Or do you think we need to go out and make a move for an impact C/1B who can hit righties?

 

I have 5 possible targets...
1-CJ Cron
He had an OPS vs lefties last year of .695 vs lefties, but .977 and over 1.000 the previous two full years. He's in his last season with the Rockies, he's affordable. Can obviously play 1B or DH. Seems like an obvious target.

2-Christian Vazquez-.823 OPS last year vs lefties, .732 for his career...which is solid for a good defensive catcher.

3-Wilson Contreras-A big longshot, but an exceptional athlete, still a capable catcher and given his athleticism seems like he's got 3-4 more years in him. Saw his projected salary on The Athletic.com that suggested he'd get 3/36...which I don't remember the author, but it HAS to have been Bowden. 
He's probably looking at 4/80.
If we're in an all-in season building around the big 3...he seems like the guy to take a shot on. Can bridge the gap two Quero and in two years, short of a complete fall off, 

I don't see that happening, but...I didn't see LoCain or the Brewers interest in Darvish coming and this feels like the best way to finish off the lineup with a proven #5 hitter.

4-Mitch Haniger
Wouldn't make much sense to go out and sign a RF when you just traded one, BUT...if he's out there long enough coming off a down season...maybe you get him for what you paid McCutchen last year?

5-Yandy Diaz
He just crushes lefties and he's a guy who walks at a rate of ~17, 13 and 14 the last 3 years. K rate and BB rate is roughly the same. I'd LOVE to not have to watch more extra inning game next year where we start with a guy on 2nd base and we still can't score. I feel like a rich kid in HS. It's all set up for me and I still can't just get the run in. 

 

 

[Soupbone]

What would Diaz cost in a trade?

Rays should be looking for lower minors type guys?

[Brewcrew82]

I'd add Danny Jansen as a target. Right-handed hitter with an .826 OPS against LHP last year. Has hit RHP very well over his career, too. I appreciate hitters who can hit both. Seeing as he's a Wisconsin native, maybe we could buy out a year or two of his FA as well to help bridge the gap to Quero...I bet he'd take the guaranteed money. 

Yandy Diaz would also be a great add. I just think catcher is more of a priority at this point imo. 

[UpandIn]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd add Danny Jansen as a target. Right-handed hitter with an .826 OPS against LHP last year. Has hit RHP very well over his career, too. I appreciate hitters who can hit both. Seeing as he's a Wisconsin native, maybe we could buy out a year or two of his FA as well to help bridge the gap to Quero...I bet he'd take the guaranteed money. 

Yandy Diaz would also be a great add. I just think catcher is more of a priority at this point imo. 

Well...of course. That's ideal. And I think Turang and Frelick will both hit lefties well enough eventually. Hopefully Adames, who seems like he should crush LHPers can improve. 

Jansen would be a good target and could obviously be included. I went with those 5...just because they came to mind, were mostly cheaper in a trade or players we could sign without having to give anyone up. Contreras is an obvious long shot, but feels like the type of move they'd make if Attanasio was more involved. 

But Jansen and a 3 year might make sense. He's projected to get 3.7 this year so...maybe 9M next year. 3 year 25M with a 15M TO, 4M buyout?

 

Murphy, Kirk would both work. It really feels like we might need a couple right handers, but I suspect they'll kinda feel it out, hope Ruiz/Wiemer come along...if not, there SHOULD be someone who can hit RHed pitching at the deadline. That's usually an easier skill set to find.

[UpandIn]

17 minutes ago, Soupbone said:

What would Diaz cost in a trade?

Rays should be looking for lower minors type guys?

I don't know...someone had a proposal that was close on the Trade Value site and IIRC it was Mitchell plus Carlos Rodriguez(RHP) for Diaz. 

That's too much IMO, but he is pretty much exactly what we're looking for.

 

[Outlander]

Would not happen but would consider taking 21 year old Malcom Nunez in the rule 5 draft next week to play the Hiura role of last year that did not work of facing LHP as a DH/1B. Could also have a potential Rowdy replacement down the road as well. Makes more sense than Jon Singleton on this team.

[SF70]

Brandon Drury OPS’d .955 vs LHP last season and would be a great addition to this team especially if he could be had on a 2 year contract. 

Agree we need a RHH catcher acquisition. I’d prefer Vasquez, but his price would likely be too high for our FO to pay, so Jansen by trade would probably work.

 

[sveumrules]

Looking at three year splits only 200 players have even 250 PAs vs LHP. The most most PAs anyone has gotten against LHP the last three seasons combined is 530.

Due to physiology, we’re necessarily talking about small samples, spread over multiple seasons, so there’s a lot of noise present.

That said, there are five players on the roster currently that have been above average vs LHP from 2020-22…

Brosseau (261 PA | 128 wRC+), Urias (307 PA | 111 wRC+), Adames (389 PA | 110 wRC+), Tyrone (239 PA | 109 wRC+) and Yelich (401 PA | 104 wRC+).

Catcher and someone that could maybe move between 1B/3B/DH seem like the easiest spots to fit a lefty masher in.

Figure out a way to get a couple of Drury (215 PA | 143 wRC+), Longoria (267 PA | 143 wRC+), Haniger (300 PA | 142 wRC+), Yandy (408 PA | 139 wRC+), Wil Myers (310 PA | 139 wRC+), Grossman (379 PA | 139 wRC+), Haase (251 PA | 132 wRC+), Contreras (304 PA | 122 wRC+), Murphy (342 PA | 115 wRC+) or d’Arnaud (181 PA | 128 wRC+) and the lineup vs LHP should be pretty well positioned to improve on their southpaw WOAHs the last couple years.

Possible backstop additions Vasquez (329 PA | 84 wRC+) and Jansen (183 PA | 75 wRC+) haven’t fared as well vs LHP the last three seasons.

[reillymcshane]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Looking at three year splits only 200 players have even 250 PAs vs LHP. The most most PAs anyone has gotten against LHP the last three seasons combined is 530.

Due to physiology, we’re necessarily talking about small samples, spread over multiple seasons, so there’s a lot of noise present.

That said, there are five players on the roster currently that have been above average vs LHP from 2020-22…

Brosseau (261 PA | 128 wRC+), Urias (307 PA | 111 wRC+), Adames (389 PA | 110 wRC+), Tyrone (239 PA | 109 wRC+) and Yelich (401 PA | 104 wRC+).

Catcher and someone that could maybe move between 1B/3B/DH seem like the easiest spots to fit a lefty masher in.

Figure out a way to get a couple of Drury (215 PA | 143 wRC+), Longoria (267 PA | 143 wRC+), Haniger (300 PA | 142 wRC+), Yandy (408 PA | 139 wRC+), Wil Myers (310 PA | 139 wRC+), Grossman (379 PA | 139 wRC+), Haase (251 PA | 132 wRC+), Contreras (304 PA | 122 wRC+), Murphy (342 PA | 115 wRC+) or d’Arnaud (181 PA | 128 wRC+) and the lineup vs LHP should be pretty well positioned to improve on their southpaw WOAHs the last couple years.

Possible backstop additions Vasquez (329 PA | 84 wRC+) and Jansen (183 PA | 75 wRC+) haven’t fared as well vs LHP the last three seasons.

Thanks for all of this work.

[brewcrewdue80]

As current roster stands, vs LHP Yelich leads off?  

Adames

Winker

Urias or Brosseau/ RH Catcher acquisition.

Repeat Urias or Brosseau 

Tellez?

Mitchell/Taylor

Catcher anywhere from 4-8

Frelick or Ruiz? Toro?

Certainly as it stands, it has concern. 

You have a future roster additions with Wiemer and Chourio(though Chourio hasn't cemented success vs LHP) and Jeferson Quero.  Expect that help after this season.

FAs don't look promising if you are moving forward with your top prospects whom are playing the positions you would fill your RH need.  Contreras makes the most sense, but he's not about to sign any deal below 3years.

D'Arnaud just had an All Star season, probably looking for a 3yr contract finishing up his career.

Murphy separated his shoulder last season didn't return. Not whom you want to project your OD/full time starter.

Justin Turner won't happen.

Drury had negative WAR for his career prior to last season. Like D'Arnaud, gotta assume he looks to cash in on a multi year deal. 

Trade?  Who could they maybe acquire dangling Mitchell or Frelick as headliner?

 

Well 1 player and team ID try to work with is the White Sox and Andrew Vaughn.  Send them Tellez and 1 of Mitchell or Frelick. White Sox appear lacking of LH bats. They gain 2, we gain a RH future 1b/DH masher.

 

[UpandIn]

On 12/3/2022 at 2:49 PM, sveumrules said:

Looking at three year splits only 200 players have even 250 PAs vs LHP. The most most PAs anyone has gotten against LHP the last three seasons combined is 530.

Due to physiology, we’re necessarily talking about small samples, spread over multiple seasons, so there’s a lot of noise present.

That said, there are five players on the roster currently that have been above average vs LHP from 2020-22…

Brosseau (261 PA | 128 wRC+), Urias (307 PA | 111 wRC+), Adames (389 PA | 110 wRC+), Tyrone (239 PA | 109 wRC+) and Yelich (401 PA | 104 wRC+).

Catcher and someone that could maybe move between 1B/3B/DH seem like the easiest spots to fit a lefty masher in.

Figure out a way to get a couple of Drury (215 PA | 143 wRC+), Longoria (267 PA | 143 wRC+), Haniger (300 PA | 142 wRC+), Yandy (408 PA | 139 wRC+), Wil Myers (310 PA | 139 wRC+), Grossman (379 PA | 139 wRC+), Haase (251 PA | 132 wRC+), Contreras (304 PA | 122 wRC+), Murphy (342 PA | 115 wRC+) or d’Arnaud (181 PA | 128 wRC+) and the lineup vs LHP should be pretty well positioned to improve on their southpaw WOAHs the last couple years.

Possible backstop additions Vasquez (329 PA | 84 wRC+) and Jansen (183 PA | 75 wRC+) haven’t fared as well vs LHP the last three seasons.

I'd actually thought about Grossman, but didn't think that'd be well received. 

I love the idea of Contreras, it'd take a massive commitment by the Brewers...and he'd have to want to come here. If we offered 3/60 with a mutual option for 25M/10M buyout...I wonder if that gets it done? Or would you pretty much have to make it 4 years either way?

I suspect not at he was reportedly looking at 5/100. But if you're going for one year with Burnes, Woodruff and Adames...then kinda clear up the veterans and flip them for prospects, it MIGHT be worth it. Also, entirely possible that if you gave Contreras that deal, you'd be able to trade him 2 years into it without having to eat too much of it given the lack of catching around MLB. Though that's the same reason it's unlikely he lands in Milwaukee to begin with.

[clancyphile]

I'm not convinced Wiemer is in the minors all year. If anything, should both he and Winker perform well, I could see the Brewers dealing Winker for a prospect or two and promoting Wiemer. That would fix the supposed imbalance in the lineup for the short term.