deGrom to Rangers - 5 years, $185 million

[Brock Beauchamp]

26 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Agreed, but they kinda have no other choice. Their farm has been climbing in the rankings, but hasn’t really turned out anyone yet. New stadium to fill.

Last made the playoffs in 2016, since then they’ve won 373 games, 6th fewest in MLB. Only PIT (368), MIA (364), KCR (362), DET (341) and BAL (336) have been worse.

At least the Orioles look like they’re starting to come out of it through development, but those other teams along with CIN (386 wins since 2017), OAK (ownership tearing it down) and WAS (2nd fewest wins in MLB since winning the WS) are the dregs for sure.

I’d include COL too since they seem to operate on an island, but their fans keep showing up so no big whoop I guess.

Then again, nothing might be more depressing than LAA wasting a decade of Trout and about to leave the whole Ohtani experience with nothing either barring the miraculous.

Oh, I get it but I think they've also made some really bad decisions along the way. I would have signed Correa over Seager because I think Seager will quickly move to second/third while Correa could easily stay at short for another 4-5 years. I would have signed several people over Semien.

And no way in hell would I give deGrom that money and years. I'd prefer Rodon over that timeline. Not by a lot but I just feel deGrom's arm is ready to grenade at any moment. I think they could have achieved more roster balance without consistently going for older guys with long contracts.

[UpandIn]

On 12/3/2022 at 12:40 PM, MrTPlush said:

Imagine paying a 35 year old basically $40mil a year and he hasn’t made half a seasons worth of start in 4 years.

mid you combined his stats with whatever starter has to replace him all the time when injured…how bad are his stats?

I guess you pray you can make the postseason and he is healthy when you make it. It is pretty hard to think there is a very likely chance this ends up a good deal in the grand scheme.

Imagine the Mets being mad they didn't have a chance to counter...

There's also a little embellishment in this post. 4 years ago he threw 200 IP and won a Cy Young.
2020 he made 12 starts in 60 games, 3rd in Cy Young voting.

Threw 92 IP in 2021(Still finished 9th in Cy Young voting).

And then got injured which lasted into this year...and then he came back and was dominant again this year.

I'm not the least bit surprised by the AAV over 5 years. I thought he'd sign for 3 at a higher AAV(and he almost certainly COULD have got more in AAV from the Mets). 

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Imagine the Mets being mad they didn't have a chance to counter...

There's also a little embellishment in this post. 4 years ago he threw 200 IP and won a Cy Young.
2020 he made 12 starts in 60 games, 3rd in Cy Young voting.

Threw 92 IP in 2021(Still finished 9th in Cy Young voting).

And then got injured which lasted into this year...and then he came back and was dominant again this year.

I'm not the least bit surprised by the AAV over 5 years. I thought he'd sign for 3 at a higher AAV(and he almost certainly COULD have got more in AAV from the Mets). 

It’s the five years that surprises me. I also expected a higher AAV and shorter length. 

[UpandIn]

41 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I get it but I think they've also made some really bad decisions along the way. I would have signed Correa over Seager because I think Seager will quickly move to second/third while Correa could easily stay at short for another 4-5 years. I would have signed several people over Semien.

And no way in hell would I give deGrom that money and years. I'd prefer Rodon over that timeline. Not by a lot but I just feel deGrom's arm is ready to grenade at any moment. I think they could have achieved more roster balance without consistently going for older guys with long contracts.

Correa made a LOT more sense. 

He and Semien would have been a better fit. Semien put up 6 WAR this past year but Seager had the worst year of his career. 

Other than that...I don't think the Rangers are quite as crazy are people are suggesting. deGrom came back throwing 100MPH again...won his playoff start and the 52M in deferred money plus the 20M team option makes it a reasonable risk after spending what they spent last year. 

They've also got a lot of young pitching in Lieter, White, Winn. The IF should be REALLY solid with Jung/Seager/Siemen/Lowe from 3rd to 1st. That's about as talented an IF as there is. 

Other prospects who are highly regarded and near MLB is OFer Owen White, Foscue.

I think the Rangers are being overlooked. deGrom is the most dominant pitcher since Pedro. Perez is back as the #2, Gray as the #3 and then...a lot of really talented young arms to fill in. Plus, I think Rucker could be a TOR starter, but I think it's more likely he slots into the BP and could do so in the near future. 

 

We'll see, but I'm a little surprised to see the...well, surprise by others. There were people projected 3/135 for deGrom before FA. Seems like he just took less per year and more over the long haul and the Rangers bet on the most talented pitcher in the least 20+ years to continue and stay healthy from the end of '22 and that's as safe a bet as you'll get. I'd definitely rather roll the dice on deGrom than Rodon, but we'll see. 

[UpandIn]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It’s the five years that surprises me. I also expected a higher AAV and shorter length. 

That's fair...I guess if you were going to go shorter, you're going 3 years and likely matching Scherzer's 43.5. AT that point, 2 more years, 50 million, most of which is deferred and then you get a team option?

The Rangers DESPERATELY needed that anchor and they clearly want those dominant power righties since their system is stocked with them. I know we're not looking to trade Burnes...but man, this could be a good time to squeeze them. Lieter, Jung and say...Roby, a guy the Brewers apparently coveted due to his high spin rates?

NOW the Rangers get two aces to go with Perez and Gray and a pretty loaded offense, the Brewers get a couple pitchers with high ceilings and a 3B?

 

Eh, not really the place, but it does seem like a rational next move if you're going to go all in on this team right now. That'd be one helluva 2 year window. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Correa made a LOT more sense. 

He and Semien would have been a better fit. Semien put up 6 WAR this past year but Seager had the worst year of his career. 

Other than that...I don't think the Rangers are quite as crazy are people are suggesting. deGrom came back throwing 100MPH again...won his playoff start and the 52M in deferred money plus the 20M team option makes it a reasonable risk after spending what they spent last year. 

They've also got a lot of young pitching in Lieter, White, Winn. The IF should be REALLY solid with Jung/Seager/Siemen/Lowe from 3rd to 1st. That's about as talented an IF as there is. 

Other prospects who are highly regarded and near MLB is OFer Owen White, Foscue.
I think the Rangers are being overlooked. deGrom is the most dominant pitcher since Pedro. Perez is back as the #2, Gray as the #3 and then...a lot of really talented young arms to fill in. Plus, I think Rucker could be a TOR starter, but I think it's more likely he slots into the BP and could do so in the near future. 

We'll see, but I'm a little surprised to see the...well, surprise by others. There were people projected 3/135 for deGrom before FA. Seems like he just took less per year and more over the long haul and the Rangers bet on the most talented pitcher in the least 20+ years to continue and stay healthy from the end of '22 and that's as safe a bet as you'll get. I'd definitely rather roll the dice on deGrom than Rodon, but we'll see. 

I actually think the Rangers are being overlooked in a few ways, too. They had a TERRIBLE one-run differential last season, which as we all know have really poor correlation YoY.

My problem with the Rangers isn't with any single deal they've made, it's the combination of them all. They could be REALLY potent this season but given the guys they chose to pursue, I think their drop-off could be fast and brutal. Signing one guy in his 30s to long-term deals is fine but when you start stacking those on top of each other (including Seager being a poor long-term choice at short), things can go sideways in a hurry.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, UpandIn said:

That's fair...I guess if you were going to go shorter, you're going 3 years and likely matching Scherzer's 43.5. AT that point, 2 more years, 50 million, most of which is deferred and then you get a team option?

I would have preferred deGrom at $40-45m per for three years. Maybe I'm wrong but that would be my preference over a five year deal with an option.

[UpandIn]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

I would have preferred deGrom at $40-45m per for three years. Maybe I'm wrong but that would be my preference over a five year deal with an option.

Fair enough...but maybe deGrom doesn't agree to the deferred money in that case.

As of now, he'll make 3/110 over the first 3 years, but 40.5 will be deferred. 

So it's really 3/69.5 for right now.

Now given he could have gotten more money and the deferred money doesn't start until the 2035 we all know the value of that is 40.5 million is worth quite a bit less due to inflation. 

The way this is structured, I see the logic behind the Rangers agreeing to 5 years 185 over the ~3/130 that would have been less likely to get that money deferred. 

And there absolutely is the risk of an injury with pitchers, particularly power pitchers like deGrom...who'd actually been pretty healthy up until half way through 2021 when he was having a historically great season. And if, by chance, he is one of those pitchers, due to his outstanding velocity and just pure stuff, who is dominant when they're in their late 30s, you get him for 20M in Yr 6 with no buyout. 

 

Again, I get the skepticism, I just am surprised at how much everyone is in agreement with it. It's a big risk/reward type move, but the reward is you get an all-time great at a time when age seems to matter less for the best pitchers than ever before. The risk is really the deferred money in ~15 years.

I am really just surprised deGrom didn't give the Mets the chance to counter.  

[UpandIn]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I actually think the Rangers are being overlooked in a few ways, too. They had a TERRIBLE one-run differential last season, which as we all know have really poor correlation YoY.

My problem with the Rangers isn't with any single deal they've made, it's the combination of them all. They could be REALLY potent this season but given the guys they chose to pursue, I think their drop-off could be fast and brutal. Signing one guy in his 30s to long-term deals is fine but when you start stacking those on top of each other (including Seager being a poor long-term choice at short), things can go sideways in a hurry.

So if they'd have gone Correa(same price) and then deGrom for 3/130, you'd be more on board?

That make sense, if for no other reason than Correa's transition to 3B seems like it'll be a natural one, he's played in Texas, less injury prone and I think he's just a better player right now. Maybe they moved off Seager because Correa wouldn't take the same overestimating his market. I did not realize Seager was still just 28 this year, but I do think that's likely to be a bad deal for the last 5 years. 

Siemen had a great 1st year(led the league in OAA I believe). Not quite as good offensively, but a 6 WAR season. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

55 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I am really just surprised deGrom didn't give the Mets the chance to counter.  

Ditto. Given Cohen's huge personality and willingness to spend, deGrom's life-long career as a Met, I'm a little shocked he didn't give them a chance to beat the offer and stay a Met.

[Brock Beauchamp]

51 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

So if they'd have gone Correa(same price) and then deGrom for 3/130, you'd be more on board?

That make sense, if for no other reason than Correa's transition to 3B seems like it'll be a natural one, he's played in Texas, less injury prone and I think he's just a better player right now. Maybe they moved off Seager because Correa wouldn't take the same overestimating his market. I did not realize Seager was still just 28 this year, but I do think that's likely to be a bad deal for the last 5 years. 

Siemen had a great 1st year(led the league in OAA I believe). Not quite as good offensively, but a 6 WAR season. 

Absolutely. Give me Correa at Seager money and deGrom for three years at an incredible AAV.

And Semien is fine, I guess, and if a team isn't signing Seager at the same time, I'd be fine with a Semien contract. But, again, it's all about stacking these contracts on top of one another. Remove one and I'm probably 100% on board.

[sveumrules]

Looking at some projections for deGrom, Steamer has him at 29 GS | 172 IP | 2.64 ERA | 2.34 FIP | 5.1 rWAR | 5.5 fWAR.

The GS | IP seem optimistic to me coming off the last three seasons, but have to think the Rangers would be happy with this as long as the three missed GS weren’t the last ones of the season.

ZiPS has him at 19 GS | 112 IP | 2.40 ERA | 3.2 WAR next year which feels like a more reasonable hedge to me. For the five year projection it had 95 GS | 568 IP | 14.1 WAR.

Throw one or two mostly healthy CY caliber seasons in there and you’re up over 20 WAR, throw a year plus missed to injury in and now you’re down closer to 10 WAR. One of each & you’re back where you started.

Jacob was actually mostly healthy to start his career, from 2014-19 his 1,101 IP were the 12th most. His 68 ERA- | 69 FIP- were bettered by only Kershaw (58 | 64) and equaled by only Scherzer (68 | 69), Kluber (69 | 69) and Sale (66 | 71) among SP. His 32.8 rWAR ranked 4th & his 31.5 rWAR ranked 3rd. A lil over five WAR a year, pretty much right in line with the Steamer projection.

Obviously the pandemic shortened 2020 was a mitigating factor for everybody, but from 2020-22 deGrom’s 224 IP ranked 120th. With a completely absurd 52 ERA- | 44 FIP- (Burnes was 63 | 58 over the same stretch) Jacob managed to rank 23rd in rWAR (9.0) and 14th in fWAR (9.7) despite the paucity of IP. Closer to three WAR per season, more in line with the ZiPS projection.

My guess would be a couple healthy-ish CY caliber seasons, a couple partial seasons and at least one season that will end up close to zero due to injury. I’ll say 18.7 WAR for Jacob Texas Ranger. 

[jerichoholicninja]

Apparently no one in the Rangers front office remembers when they threw ungodly money at ARod, Chan Ho Park, and others and how that failed miserably.