Zach Eflin to Rays - 3 years, $40 million

[homer]

 

 

 

[MVP2110]

If you want to see why the Brewers traded for pitching depth this deal is why. 3/40 for Eflin is wild

[Brewcrew82]

Holy crap. This is insane. And Boyd, who the Tigers literally non-tendered last year and pitched all of 13 innings this season, just received $10 million from DET, too. 

If we did trade Burnes, I'd want Grayson Rodriguez, Gabriel Moreno, etc.

[SF70]

40 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Holy crap. This is insane. And Boyd, who the Tigers literally non-tendered last year and pitched all of 13 innings this season, just received $10 million from DET, too. 

If we did trade Burnes, I'd want Grayson Rodriguez, Gabriel Moreno, etc.

A Burnes trade needs to return high-end starters. Forget the Moreno’s and Cartaya’s and focus on what this team lacks organizationally — big-armed SP prospects in the upper minors.

First team that headlines with 2 big-armed starters wins Burnes. 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, SF70 said:

A Burnes trade needs to return high-end starters. Forget the Moreno’s and Cartaya’s and focus on what this team lacks organizationally — big-armed SP prospects in the upper minors.

First team that headlines with 2 big-armed starters wins Burnes. 

I strongly disagree. The goal should be to accumulate as much elite talent as possible, regardless of position. Trades and free agent signings can always be made to fill in the gaps on your roster. Doing otherwise is how you set yourself up to lose trades. I'd much rather have Moreno than a guy such as DL Hall....

Plus, the first player I named was Grayson Rodriguez...

[brewmann04]

Yes FA Pitching is out of wack Brewers not paying for that and that why they will eventually have to Move both Woodruff and Burnes and hopefully Matt will do better than his predecessor did with moving Josh 

[SF70]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I strongly disagree. The goal should be to accumulate as much elite talent as possible, regardless of position. Trades and free agent signings can always be made to fill in the gaps on your roster. Doing otherwise is how you set yourself up to lose trades. I'd much rather have Moreno than a guy such as DL Hall....

Plus, the first player I named was Grayson Rodriguez...

Rodriguez might be the exception, being the consensus best starter prospect in the game, but outside of Baltimore, multiple high-end starters need to come back if I’m MKE. 

This team has a monster positional farm system, and a nice stable of young potential 3-5 starters below AA. Misiorowski is really the only TOR potential we have and he’s 2-3 years from even touching the rotation.

Getting the high-end starters we need for ‘24/‘25 will need to come from the trading of Burnes now and or both of Burnes/Woodruff next offseason.

Rather get both high-end starter prospects in the trading of Burnes now so we can keep Woodruff for the draft-pick and contend in ‘23 & ‘24.

[wibadgers23]

This is why you offer a guy like Houser arbitration at $4 million or whatever it's going to be.

[Redd Vencher]

13 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

This is why you offer a guy like Houser arbitration at $4 million or whatever it's going to be.

Houser signed for $3.6 M already.

[wibadgers23]

8 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Houser signed for $3.6 M already.

That's right - thanks.  $3.6 million is even better then.

[Robocaller]

pretty obscene pay for a #4/5 starter.

[jay87shot]

Tyler Anderson  2.57 era in 178 innings   3/39

Zach Eflin  4.04 era in 75 innings 3/40

I get that teams are into advance stats and maybe the Rays see something like a new type of opener who can pitch like 2-3 innnings every 3 or 4 days but this is off for a savy team.

Also the Boyd contract is hilariously awful, it's not like he has a big arm or will be a workhorse. For a team that struggled with pitching injuries getting a starter with injury issues for almost triple what other would have given him is beyond awful. I live in Michigan and the fans around here are really really down on the Tigers front office and they just put a new one in place.

Guys like Lauer and Hauser's value should be skyrocketing after those deals.

[MVP2110]

I still find it extremely likely the Brewers deal one of Lauer or Houser before the season and with their FA prices it would seem like the Brewers would be likely to get back a decent haul 

[brewmann04]

This is the reason the Brewers have to develop their young their young arms. Unless you can get good deals for them like they did for Ashby and Freddy.  I sure Arnold will try to  sign one of the Big 2  but expecting one or Both traded. 

 

[endaround]

33 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Tyler Anderson  2.57 era in 178 innings   3/39

Zach Eflin  4.04 era in 75 innings 3/40

I get that teams are into advance stats and maybe the Rays see something like a new type of opener who can pitch like 2-3 innnings every 3 or 4 days but this is off for a savy team.

Also the Boyd contract is hilariously awful, it's not like he has a big arm or will be a workhorse. For a team that struggled with pitching injuries getting a starter with injury issues for almost triple what other would have given him is beyond awful. I live in Michigan and the fans around here are really really down on the Tigers front office and they just put a new one in place.

Guys like Lauer and Hauser's value should be skyrocketing after those deals.

Or teams realize that ERA is a terrible stat.  Eflin had FIP of 3.68 and 3.56 in 2021 and 2022. Yes he has some risk, but if he can get to 150 innings the Rays likely think they have a 2.5 to 3.0 win pitcher. Now decent chance that may not happen but that is why he didn't cost too much given he's going to be 29 next season.

Every time a league average pitcher gets a league average contract this place goes weird.

Lauer has FIPS of 4.04 and 4.50 that past two years.  Houser 4.33 and 4.21. So no I don't think this means their value has gone through the roof. It is what has been before these contracts.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, there are a few factors at play with the Anderson/Eflin contracts being closer than ERA might indicate.

Anderson is four years older and coming off a breakout season with one of the best teams at maximizing pitcher results (2.93 ERA | 3.54 FIP for LAD since 2020). Will he be able to maintain that level of performance as he ages with a notably less savvy organization (4.37 ERA | 4.17 FIP for LAA since 2020)?

Eflin is kind of on the flip side as a younger pitcher with possible untapped upside. Out of 135 pitchers with at least 200 IP since 2020, his 0.51 differential between his ERA (4.08) and FIP (3.57) is the 13th largest in MLB.

On a team level since 2020, the Phillies (4.33 ERA | 3.96 FIP) have been the 2nd worst team at living up to their peripherals. The only team worse has been COL (5.06 ERA | 4.54 FIP) and they have Coors to contend with.

The Rays (3.55 ERA | 3.77 FIP) conversely have been the 4th best team at getting their pitchers to beat their peripherals.

Eflin looks like a better bet to live up to his deal for me.

[MrTPlush]

12 hours ago, SF70 said:

A Burnes trade needs to return high-end starters. Forget the Moreno’s and Cartaya’s and focus on what this team lacks organizationally — big-armed SP prospects in the upper minors.

First team that headlines with 2 big-armed starters wins Burnes. 

Good way to end up with a bunch of trash that flames out into AAAA players.

I will go with whatever projects as the best and safest bet for being great MLB players some day. If it is pitching, great. If it is hitting, great. The only thing I would maybe avoid is OFers…because at some point you have so many they will die of old age before they ever get a chance to show us what they are.

Talent > perceived organizational need

[SF70]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Good way to end up with a bunch of trash that flames out into AAAA players.

I will go with whatever projects as the best and safest bet for being great MLB players some day. If it is pitching, great. If it is hitting, great. The only thing I would maybe avoid is OFers…because at some point you have so many they will die of old age before they ever get a chance to show us what they are.

Talent > perceived organizational need

Drafting — Yes, absolutely take the best player available with the caveat of working to get max value from the pool money.

If this team wants to better-time their SP with their incredible positional talent, they need to be able to do it through a trade of Burnes and possibly Woodruff. Pitching given-up for pitching returned.

Teams aren’t likely giving up big armed pitching prospects in a trade for a position player.. This is why we need to focus our Burnes return with SP prospects. The eventual Burnes trade should be to the team giving-up the best starter prospects.

 

[MrTPlush]

27 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Drafting — Yes, absolutely take the best player available with the caveat of working to get max value from the pool money.

If this team wants to better-time their SP with their incredible positional talent, they need to be able to do it through a trade of Burnes and possibly Woodruff. Pitching given-up for pitching returned.

Teams aren’t likely giving up big armed pitching prospects in a trade for a position player.. This is why we need to focus our Burnes return with SP prospects. The eventual Burnes trade should be to the team giving-up the best starter prospects.

 

I agree with you. I certainly would hope for the best offer being pitching centric…or at least on par with other offers. I wouldn’t go out of my way to take a pitching offer just because I want pitching though. Not if it means it is notably less on paper.

It isn’t like we are going to go out and can cherry pick whatever offer we want. Realistically, we probably would get a few serious offers for Burnes because A) only so many teams want to give up that kind of prospect capital and B) only so many have it to begin with. 
 

Personally I would almost prefer the package to be headlined by an elite hitter. A lot of fantastic and elite starters come out of the secondary range of prospects at 40-70 in the Top 100. Historically those elite pitching prospects actually haven’t faired all that well.

[jay87shot]

I would like for a elite middle of the order profile hitter in a Burnes trade 1st and foremost, with a 2nd prospect just maximize value (wherever they play). Then with 3rd and 4th prospects get younger prospects with the loudest tools or quality reliever (if available). If you look at our young bats there really isn't an obvious 100 rbi guy.

[Brewcrew82]

59 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I would like for a elite middle of the order profile hitter in a Burnes trade 1st and foremost, with a 2nd prospect just maximize value (wherever they play). Then with 3rd and 4th prospects get younger prospects with the loudest tools or quality reliever (if available). If you look at our young bats there really isn't an obvious 100 rbi guy.

Chourio, Wiemer? Even so, RBI's are not really a stat you should predicate your moves on. Tellez is a near 100 RBI guy, and look how relatively cheap we got him. 

[brewmann04]

Brewers need hitter who can put ball in play Hitting Home Runs should be a Plus 

[jay87shot]

Let me clarify, when I think of a middle of the order hitter I think .280+ 100 rbi's and decent power (20+) and not a crazy amount of strikeouts. Yes, Weimer and Chourio (and maybe Mitchell) have potential to get to those numbers both have some strikeout worries potentially and in Chourio's case a few levels of better pitching to prove themselves. Rowdy, Willy, and Yeli still have some middle of the order juice as well if Rowdy and Willy can get the BA up to .270 or so and Yeli would need to remember how to lift the ball (and not miss juicy middle middle pitches). 

Sorry my we don't have an obvious +100 rbi guy wasn't the best description,