Article: Do the Brewers Need to Trade Christian Yelich?

[GAME05]

Brewers don't have the payroll and riches to be sending another team money to get rid of a contract. And even if the Brewers could send $10M/season off with Yelich, what are you picking up for that leftover $16m--basically a player of Yelich's current ability.

[jay87shot]

Yeli went from a 1.2 to 2.7 WAR in 2022. My guess is that almost all of that is after he took over leadoff. I feel like there are way to many people making it sound like Yeli was a heaping pile of trash. Yes, he probably will never be a 7 WAR player again and worth the $26 mill per year. He is still an average-ish defense left feilder with speed and maybe a little power can come back (he did hit one 499 ft hr last year). To say that contract is worse (or could be worse) than Chris Davis is a stretch. I don't think anyone would be surprised if he hits .280 with the shift off. Yeli will be an above average player for at least 3 years and if he DH's he will be at least an average player for those 6 years.

That being said it would be nice to trade him and be able to resign some of our stars. I wouldn't add him to a Woody/Burnes trade and lessen those pitchers value. Anthony Rendon would have been the only bad deal I would have considered and now that they have Renfroe so they don't need an OF. If the Nats were better Corbin or Stras could make sense (especially if Stras gets healthy) but with the Nats rebuilding that won't happen. Eventually (maybe 2 years) someone like Trevor Story might work. 

 

[monty57]

@Robocaller hit the nail on the head. In order to trade Yelich, we'd have to do what the Reds did in getting rid of Suarez, which is add a good player into the deal to offset Yelich's negative value. 

Unfortunately, his deal relative to his production is so bad that even Burnes might not be enough to offset it. I know some people don't like baseballtradevalues.com, but they have Yelich at -119.3, with Burnes at 78.3. Whoever took the deal would get Burnes for two seasons, but would be stuck with the Yelich deal for years. By BTV's math, we'd need to trade Adames and Burnes along with Yelich just to get zero return (we'd actually get a 0.30 value player in return). For sake of reference, they have Junk (one of the three guys we got back in the Renfroe trade where people have said we got no return) valued at 0.30.

But, let's say a team would be willing to take on Yelich's contract if we add Burnes to the deal. Would you trade Burnes for nothing just to get rid of Yelich? I wouldn't. I certainly wouldn't want to trade Adames, Burnes, and Yelich for Junk. We're much better off getting another year out of Burnes and Adames and trading them for a bunch of prospects who can complement Yelich for league minimum.

If you can look past the negative trade value due to the contract, Yelich has some value to the team as a player. The contract will keep the team from signing or extending other players, but if he can keep a .350+ OBP, he can help the team win. He'll likely be the LF this year, transitioning to DH as our OF prospects make the way to the MLB team. 

At some point in the future, the team will probably have to just eat the contract (or most of it in trade), but that's a few years down the road. Until then, we can use this as Exhibit A as to why we need to strongly consider whether it is worth it to "back up the truck" to sign another big money, long-term deal to someone that takes them into their mid-30's... even if we really like that player. Even if that player remains an average-to-above-average MLB player, we'd still wish we could give him away for nothing just to get out of the contract.

[Lajitas]

Just think, with the deferred money, we'll be paying him until 2042.

[wallus]

Yikes

[Robocaller]

12 hours ago, sveumrules said:

FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE

That just means he has to be on-board with the trade. There must be places he'd rather be, given an option.

[Jim French Stepstool]

20 hours ago, Robocaller said:

 

I think the most likely successful course would be to expose Yelich to weird religious sects that would cause him to retire, if he joined them. That's the best-case scenario, assuming we don't want to indulge in any foul play. I don't think I'm joking.

 

Well, he IS playing for the same organization that brought you Danny Thomas?.

[Axman59]

The Brewers should encourage Yelich to spend his off-seasons with Ryan Braun. Might get better production.

[DHonks]

I think Yeli is the primary DH this year, with some time in LF.  The Brewers’ statisticians likely expect some bounce back in ‘23 in part to a finally healthy Yelich AND the new shift rules.  Given he led the league in hard-hit groundball outs, it’s likely that some become hits.  I’d always consider trading anyone, but I don’t want to eat $75million to have him play for someone else.  This is why the old August waiver period should come back.  We could have tried to move guys like him, McCutchen, Wong, etc in August if someone was willing to take on their salaries.  But I wouldn’t want to lose him to free agency while still having to pay every dime (remember guys could be pulled off of waivers)

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, DHonks said:

I think Yeli is the primary DH this year, with some time in LF.  The Brewers’ statisticians likely expect some bounce back in ‘23 in part to a finally healthy Yelich AND the new shift rules.  Given he led the league in hard-hit groundball outs, it’s likely that some become hits.  I’d always consider trading anyone, but I don’t want to eat $75million to have him play for someone else.  This is why the old August waiver period should come back.  We could have tried to move guys like him, McCutchen, Wong, etc in August if someone was willing to take on their salaries.  But I wouldn’t want to lose him to free agency while still having to pay every dime (remember guys could be pulled off of waivers)

Barring injury, I think he'll play at least 50 games in the OF, and maybe even 80+.  

 

[monty57]

6 hours ago, DHonks said:

I think Yeli is the primary DH this year, with some time in LF.  

I think the Brewers will start Mitchell and Frelick, but I don't think they'll have an entire OF of rookies. Do you think they'll play Taylor everyday in RF, do you believe Wiemer is ready, or do you think they'll acquire another OF?

I'd guess that Yelich will be the primary LF, with plenty of "days off" at DH and Taylor getting a lot of playing time as the primary backup at all three OF positions. Wiemer will probably make his MLB debut this season, and by opening day 2024, I could see Yelich being the primary DH, but I don't think they're quite there yet.

I agree with the rest of your post, and think Yelich will benefit from the new shift rules. His hard grounders will have a lot bigger gaps to get through.

[StearnsFTW]

Stick him at DH (or 1b).  Hope for 3 WAR.  Repeat for 5 years (ugh).

Not many options other than that. 

At 3 WAR he's not a disaster.  Not good, but not a disaster.

 

[Lajitas]

4 hours ago, monty57 said:

I think the Brewers will start Mitchell and Frelick, but I don't think they'll have an entire OF of rookies. Do you think they'll play Taylor everyday in RF, do you believe Wiemer is ready, or do you think they'll acquire another OF?

I'd guess that Yelich will be the primary LF, with plenty of "days off" at DH and Taylor getting a lot of playing time as the primary backup at all three OF positions. Wiemer will probably make his MLB debut this season, and by opening day 2024, I could see Yelich being the primary DH, but I don't think they're quite there yet.

People need to check themselves with thinking Frelick and/or Wiemer are going to be starting this season.  Frelick has played 46 games at AAA and Wiemer has played 43.  It's FAR more likely our OF is going to be Yelich, Mitchell and some combination of Taylor/Ruiz/Perkins/some inexpensive veteran.

[Joseph Zarr]

Do the Brewers need to trade Christian Yelich?        No

Would it be wise to trade Christian Yelich?               Absolutely

Can they trade Christian Yelich?                                 I believe this answer is complicated

 

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

People need to check themselves with thinking Frelick and/or Wiemer are going to be starting this season.  Frelick has played 46 games at AAA and Wiemer has played 43.  It's FAR more likely our OF is going to be Yelich, Mitchell and some combination of Taylor/Ruiz/Perkins/some inexpensive veteran.

Wiemer? Probably yes. Frelick? I severely doubt so. Frelick is as major league ready as it gets, with one of the best hit tools (if not THE best) in the entire minors. They may keep him down until mid to late April in order to gain the extra year of control. But he's going to be up in short order regardless. 

FWIW, he'll have to be on the opening day roster if they want the possibility of gaining that extra draft pick from the ROY vote. 

[Lajitas]

Frelick has played a third of a season at AA and a third of a season at AAA.  Before May of last season, he hadn't been above A ball.  If there was nobody else and he has an incredible spring, maybe.  But they'll go through all their other options before calling him up.

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

Frelick has played a third of a season at AA and a third of a season at AAA.  Before May of last season, he hadn't been above A ball.  If there was nobody else and he has an incredible spring, maybe.  But they'll go through all their other options before calling him up.

He was a college draft pick, expected to be one of the fastest movers from his draft class due to his elite hit tool....He literally just laid waste to AAA pitching, with more walks than strikeouts and one of the highest contact rates in the minors. He's ready, the Brewers recognize this, and they have an incentive to have him on the opening day roster. Hence, the Renfroe trade...

[Lajitas]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He was a college draft pick, expected to be one of the fastest movers from the draft class due to his elite hit tool....He literally just laid waste to AAA pitching, with more walks than strikeouts and one of the highest contact rates in the minors. He's ready, the Brewers recognize this, and they have an incentive to have him on the opening day roster. 

He also hit about 50 points higher all the way across his typical slash line in those few AAA games.  They'll wait to see if it continues.  Again, if they didn't have other options, I would agree.  But they'll cycle through those first, and bring him up only if all the others fail.

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

He also hit about 50 points higher all the way across his typical slash line in those few AAA games.  They'll wait to see if it continues.  Again, if they didn't have other options, I would agree.  But they'll cycle through those first, and bring him up only if all the others fail.

And where is the evidence for this? Because I just presented the evidence that they will almost certainly call him up in short order, if not by opening day....If you want to present things as a matter of fact, then the evidence should be clear...

[monty57]

12 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

He also hit about 50 points higher all the way across his typical slash line in those few AAA games.  They'll wait to see if it continues.  Again, if they didn't have other options, I would agree.  But they'll cycle through those first, and bring him up only if all the others fail.

They really don't have other options that are anywhere near as talented as Frelick. Other than potentially looking to save a year's service time, Frelick is not going to be held back in order to give a shot to Taylor, Ruiz or Perkins. 

Not all prospects are created equally. Some never make it, some need to "take their lumps" and spend time at each level to prove themselves, eventually finding a spot on the MLB roster. Then there are your top prospects, who the team finds a way to get onto the MLB field. Frelick is sitting in that category.

Nothing is certain, and even top prospects sometimes fail, but after a disappointing history of failure in the draft, the Brewers look like they've finally got some guys that are showing they deserved to be drafted early in the first round. They are not going to hold Frelick back "until Ruiz, Perkins and Taylor fail." 

The front office is probably designing their five- and ten-year plans around Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Turang. The "other options" you mentioned are likely going to be fighting to hold onto "backup OF" status. Ruiz has a more potential than the others, but he's still raw in the OF, having been moved off of second base, so he needs AAA experience more than Frelick does.

[DR28]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Wiemer? Probably yes. Frelick? I severely doubt so. Frelick is as major league ready as it gets, with one of the best hit tools (if not THE best) in the entire minors. They may keep him down until mid to late April in order to gain the extra year of control. But he's going to be up in short order regardless. 

FWIW, he'll have to be on the opening day roster if they want the possibility of gaining that extra draft pick from the ROY vote. 

Agreed, I believe Frelick will win LF job in ST, he doesnt need more time in the minors... Look at Sal's perfect comp in Steven Kwan, he made Guardians 2022 OD roster... I see the same thing happening to Sal.

How I see our 23 OD OF:

Frelick in LF

Mitchell/Taylor platoon in CF

Someone like Adam Duvall or Robbie Grossman (Cheap(er) vet) in RF

Yelich will be DH

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, DR28 said:

Agreed, I believe Frelick will win LF job in ST, he doesnt need more time in the minors... Look at Sal's perfect comp in Steven Kwan, he made Guardians 2022 OD roster... I see the same thing happening to Sal.

How I see our 23 OD OF:

Frelick in LF

Mitchell/Taylor platoon in CF

Someone like Adam Duvall or Robbie Grossman (Cheap(er) vet) in RF

Yelich will be DH

Honestly, barring a free agent signing, which wouldn't make a lot of sense in light of the Renfroe trade, I think we're going to see: Yelich in LF, Frelick in CF, and Mitchell in RF, with Taylor as the 4th outfielder seeing regular at-bats. Yelich will get time at DH, but I don't see him moving there full time just yet. 

[DR28]

30 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Honestly, barring a free agent signing, which wouldn't make a lot of sense in light of the Renfroe trade, I think we're going to see: Yelich in LF, Frelick in CF, and Mitchell in RF, with Taylor as the 4th outfielder seeing regular at-bats. Yelich will get time at DH, but I don't see him moving there full time just yet. 

We need to replace Renfroe’s production… Cant rely on Mitchell or Taylor to do that alone.

Think we’ll add a cheap vet OF on a 1 year deal to play RF.

[SF70]

28 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Honestly, barring a free agent signing, which wouldn't make a lot of sense in light of the Renfroe trade, I think we're going to see: Yelich in LF, Frelick in CF, and Mitchell in RF, with Taylor as the 4th outfielder seeing regular at-bats. Yelich will get time at DH, but I don't see him moving there full time just yet. 

I see Frelick in CF OD as well. 70 hit-tool prospects are rare and need to play right away. I’m expecting a Frelick extension sooner than later, so the extra year won’t matter, so go for the draft-pick. 

Wiemer can replace Mitchell in RF sometime after the 3rd week of April, with Mitchell taking over CF and Frelick to LF with Yelich to DH. This OF is so fast and athletic it’s ridiculous. Boatloads of runs will be saved for this pitching-staff.

[DR28]

Man I cant see us going with all rookie OF... That could be a disaster if they dont hit.