Article: Do the Brewers Need to Trade Christian Yelich?

[Ewitkows1]

I'm kinda surprised that they haven't given Wiemer a 1B glove. He's 6'5 and we have nothing in the pipeline. He can split time between 1B and the OF and get 400AB

[Hopper]

2 hours ago, monty57 said:

That said, the Yelich deal is a good example why you shouldn't use the logic "You can't turn away Burnes who is a Cy Young candidate..." Yelich was coming off of two straight MVP-caliber seasons, and we are talking about trading Burnes along with Yelich for nothing just to get out of the contract.

 

Huge difference between extending Yelich and extending Burnes. 

Yelich had not yet played since his season ending knee cap injury.  We extended him anyway.

Burnes, as far as we know, is 100% healthy.

Not the same situation.

 

[Hopper]

16 minutes ago, Ewitkows1 said:

I'm kinda surprised that they haven't given Wiemer a 1B glove. He's 6'5 and we have nothing in the pipeline. He can split time between 1B and the OF and get 400AB

He's way to good of a fielder to waste at 1B though.  

[monty57]

12 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Huge difference between extending Yelich and extending Burnes. 

Yelich had not yet played since his season ending knee cap injury.  We extended him anyway.

Burnes, as far as we know, is 100% healthy.

Not the same situation.

 

Any pitcher is always one throw away from Tommy John. It is probably more likely that Burnes will have TJ over the next 5-6 years than that he won't. I would never expect a long-term contract with a pitcher to be injury-free. 

That said, I would love to have Burnes for a few more years. At his age, anyone would love to have him. That's why he's going to get a contract that is way out of the Brewers' league. We might as well expect that we'll sign Aaron Judge this offseason. Even with some sort of discount for signing him while he's still in arby (the discount wouldn't be too much at this late stage), he's still going to be too expensive, especially with the Yelich deal on the books.

I know that I keep saying it, but small-revenue fans can't think like big-revenue fans. It sucks that we can't keep our guys, but it is generally not a good idea for a team like the Brewers to guarantee huge sums of money for a long period of time to anyone, even if he's really good. In fact, being really good might make it a worse idea, because great players are a lot more expensive. If we can't win with a 28-year-old Burnes making $6.8M while pitching like a Cy Young candidate, then how will we win with a 32-year-old Burnes making $40M? How will we do when he needs to take a year and a half off for TJ surgery, but we still have to pay him?

Our next extensions should be to guys like Mitchell, Frelick, Turang, Chourio and the top prospects we bring back when we trade away Burnes, Woodruff and Adames.

I find it ironic that I'm writing this in a thread titled "Do the Brewers Need to Trade Yelich," with the notion that we'd probably have to add Adames and Burnes to a trade or eat most of the contract just to get a team to take Yelich off our hands. And this is happening while Yelich is still an above-average MLB player!! Big, expensive contracts are really bad for small-revenue teams.

[Brewcrew82]

20 hours ago, Robocaller said:

3WAR is optimistic.

Not really. He's literally projected for a 3.0 WAR by Steamer. 

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, Ewitkows1 said:

I'm kinda surprised that they haven't given Wiemer a 1B glove. He's 6'5 and we have nothing in the pipeline. He can split time between 1B and the OF and get 400AB

He's too athletic and has too good of an arm to put at 1B. If all of our OF prospects do well, you trade one.

 

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not really. He's literally projected for a 3.0 WAR by Steamer. 

He had 1.2 and 2.7 the last two years.

3 is optimistic.

[Brewcrew82]

53 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

He had 1.2 and 2.7 the last two years.

3 is optimistic.

2.7 this year. Far from unreasonable to think he gets a bump of 0.3 from the banning of the shift and a potential increase in time at DH. Why he's ultimately projected by Steamer to do so. Optimistic would be like 4.0 and above, which would be a return to all-star caliber production. 

[wntrtxn21]

8 hours ago, Grabkoj said:

They won’t be able to trade Yelich, what they’ll possibly have to do is extend Adames and Woodruff/Burnes in season, I really think they’ll extend Adames and Burnes and trade Woodruff.

You can’t turn away Burnes who is a Cy Young Candidate every year and Adames as a cornerstone of the team.

Brewers can still have a very good rotation and compete without Woodruff, especially while getting a veteran or two and development of Aaron Ashby.

I really think now is the time to trade guys like Taylor and Lauer to get younger and cheaper players who can be in the minors for one year or ready.

Lauer can get a decent return, and Taylor can get a young back of the end starter that’s cheap (like Zach Plesac)

Woodruff on the other hand can get a lot of major league ready talent, and guys that can take place at the hot corner, rotation, and first base in the near future.

Woodruff to Mets for INF INF Ronny Mauricio, P Matt Allen, INF Mark Vientos, P Joel Diaz, and P Jose Butto 

Vientos is major league ready at first base or DH, Mauricio can be our 3B of the future and blocked by Baty and Lindor

Matt Allen can be a swing starter in a year and develop, while the other two are young and promising 

I don't see any way the Brewers can extend Burnes.  He's going to be way out of their price range, especially when you look at what of the FAs have been getting this year so far.  I think of the two, if they are looking to extend someone, it's Woodruff. He gets maybe 2/3 or less of what Burnes will command.  As far as trading Woodruff, I think your trade might be viable if the Brewers were completely tanking, but even then I don't see the value.  Mauricio is a big swing, low OBP, low average shortstop. He's played only 3 games at 3rd and was so bad the Mets gave up on the idea. Allan is 18 and no help for years, if ever.  Based on what he's done, Butto has a ceiling of #5/long man. Diaz too is just starting his career and really struggled at A level. He is also no help for years, if ever.  Vientos is a start, but he would get a look at 3B first. 

[brewcrewdue80]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not really. He's literally projected for a 3.0 WAR by Steamer. 

I would think part of that projection is history/career based. He's getting a bump because 2018&19.  He puts another 2021 this year, I would think he won't see a 2 first in any of his future projections.

[Brewcrew82]

21 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I would think part of that projection is history/career based. He's getting a bump because 2018&19.  He puts another 2021 this year, I would think he won't see a 2 first in any of his future projections.

I wouldn't go that far. He still put up a 2.7 WAR this year. 

[clancyphile]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I wouldn't go that far. He still put up a 2.7 WAR this year. 

Leading off, Yelich posted a .767 OPS, per Baseball Reference.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=yelicch01&year=2022&t=b

I think 3 WAR is possible. Yelich's LD percentage was a career low, and BABIP is trending upward. He's not washed up by a long shot.

[monty57]

8 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Leading off, Yelich posted a .767 OPS, per Baseball Reference.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=yelicch01&year=2022&t=b

I think 3 WAR is possible. Yelich's LD percentage was a career low, and BABIP is trending upward. He's not washed up by a long shot.

To be fair, @Robocaller said that projecting a 3 WAR season would be "optimistic." He didn't say "far-fetched" or "impossible." 

I think that banning the shift will help Yelich, who hits a lot of hard-hit grounders and liners to the right side of the infield. I'll agree with the term "optimistic," but I don't think it's far-fetched at all to believe that he could be a 3 WAR player this year. It will be a lot less possible if he gets moved to full-time DH, but at the plate Yelich is still an above-average MLB player.

I like him at the leadoff spot. I just wish we didn't have to pay him $26M/year for his production. It will be fun watching this team if he stays at leadoff and one of the young, high-avg/high-OBP OFs earns the #2 spot.

[JosephC]

Phillies get:

RHSP-Corbin Burnes (from Milwaukee)

OF-Christian Yelich (from Milwaukee)

Brewers get:

DH-Nick Castellanos (from Philadelphia)

C-Danny Jansen (from Toronto)

LHRP-Erik Miller (from Philadelphia)

Blue Jays get:

RHRP-Connor Brodgon (from Philadelphia)

OF-Garrett Mitchell (from Milwaukee)

No way do I see the Brewers moving Burnes in a Yelich swap, and then including Mitchell on top of it.  But for someone looking for what a Yelich deal could look like, this is the best I can do.  At least Milwaukee gets a proven big bat coming off ONE bad season who could be a serious bounce-back candidate and a good controllable catcher for the next few seasons.  Castellanos due 20 million over each of the next four years for 80 million total,  Yelich guaranteed another 162.5 million, so the Brewers save over 80 million in the swap.  

[clancyphile]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

To be fair, @Robocaller said that projecting a 3 WAR season would be "optimistic." He didn't say "far-fetched" or "impossible." 

I think that banning the shift will help Yelich, who hits a lot of hard-hit grounders and liners to the right side of the infield. I'll agree with the term "optimistic," but I don't think it's far-fetched at all to believe that he could be a 3 WAR player this year. It will be a lot less possible if he gets moved to full-time DH, but at the plate Yelich is still an above-average MLB player.

I like him at the leadoff spot. I just wish we didn't have to pay him $26M/year for his production. It will be fun watching this team if he stays at leadoff and one of the young, high-avg/high-OBP OFs earns the #2 spot.

I am operating under the assumption of an OD outfield of Frelick in left, Mitchell in center, and Taylor in right. Three relatively young CF-types (in other words, they get to a lot of balls). So, defensively (for those who defend the shift of Braun from 3B after a ROY season), it's hard to top that. Maybe you work Yelich in the OF part-time to give them breaks, but out of the six of Frelick, Mitchell, Taylor, Ruiz, Perkins, and Yelich, the 2022 NL Gold Glove finalist is sixth out of six defensively.

On the flip side, if he's not running all over the field to make catches, perhaps he stays healthier and the offense goes up. The shift ban will also help, true, but DH Yelich could be a 3-3.5 WAR guy at worst. Maybe he gets back to the 2018-2019 form. Even in 2020, his ISO was pretty good, his BABIP was an outlier.

[Hopper]

All this talk of Yelich and those hard hit balls to the right side of the infield, don't forget the plethora or weakly hit groundballs to the same side.  To be honest, I remember a lot more weakly hit ones than hard hit ones.

[DR28]

2 hours ago, monty57 said:

To be fair, @Robocaller said that projecting a 3 WAR season would be "optimistic." He didn't say "far-fetched" or "impossible." 

I think that banning the shift will help Yelich, who hits a lot of hard-hit grounders and liners to the right side of the infield. I'll agree with the term "optimistic," but I don't think it's far-fetched at all to believe that he could be a 3 WAR player this year. It will be a lot less possible if he gets moved to full-time DH, but at the plate Yelich is still an above-average MLB player.

I like him at the leadoff spot. I just wish we didn't have to pay him $26M/year for his production. It will be fun watching this team if he stays at leadoff and one of the young, high-avg/high-OBP OFs earns the #2 spot.

Like Frelick....

Yeli and Sal will be great table setters for years to come.

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, Hopper said:

All this talk of Yelich and those hard hit balls to the right side of the infield, don't forget the plethora or weakly hit groundballs to the same side.  To be honest, I remember a lot more weakly hit ones than hard hit ones.

Not sure if there is a way to break it down by batted ball type, but StatCast has Yelich 89th percentile on average exit velocity, 98th percentile on max exit velocity and 90th percentile on hard hit percentage in 2022.

[sveumrules]

Just glancing over the Shift splits on FanGraphs it looks like league average was 77 wRC+ in 2021 and 80 wRC+ in 2022.

Yelich actually fared alright with a 103 wRC+ in 559 shifted PAs from 2021-22.

Guys who look like they could maybe stand to gain the most over their 2021-22 shifted results would be Rowdy (571 PAs | 42 wRC+), Tyrone (676 PAs | 58 wRC+), Urias (276 PAs | 62 wRC+) and Caratini (311 PAs | 57 wRC+).

Wouldn’t be surprised either if Singleton getting added to the 40 Man had something to do with Brewers brass thinking his batted ball profile will benefit from the shift removal.

[Austin Tatious]

Rowdy will benefit from taking out the shift.  That’s why his BABIP was so low.  He hit right into the defense and doesn’t have the hit tool to do anything about it.  He may be able to get 20 points added to his average and find 10 plus ribbies this way.  He is an ideal example of a guy who will benefit from the rule change. 

[StearnsFTW]

On 11/30/2022 at 6:16 PM, Robocaller said:

3WAR is optimistic.

Yep.  I should have italicized "hope".

I think it's possible for the next couple years but it might get really rough after that.

[brewcrewdue80]

45 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Just glancing over the Shift splits on FanGraphs it looks like league average was 77 wRC+ in 2021 and 80 wRC+ in 2022.

Yelich actually fared alright with a 103 wRC+ in 559 shifted PAs from 2021-22.

Guys who look like they could maybe stand to gain the most over their 2021-22 shifted results would be Rowdy (571 PAs | 42 wRC+), Tyrone (676 PAs | 58 wRC+), Urias (276 PAs | 62 wRC+) and Caratini (311 PAs | 57 wRC+).

Wouldn’t be surprised either if Singleton getting added to the 40 Man had something to do with Brewers brass thinking his batted ball profile will benefit from the shift removal.

Thanks on posting bout Yelich vs the shift. I had noticed his numbers were better against the shift last season than when teams didn't use the shift vs him.  I'd wonder since being played straight up he would change his batting approach, only to roll over a soft grounder to 2b anyway.

Gotta remember Yelich is turning 31. Age decline imminent. His avg velocity went 92+ up to 94 to 91 and 91.5 last year.  That launch angle doesn't improve the continued lower exit velocity will wreak havoc on his expected BA.  On the other end he did go from 91 to 91.5 and as svuemrules noted had 98th percentile max exit velocity. Maybe he's rounding back to 2018 form. Truthfully he's a 5-7° higher launch angle where he's elite. Any added higher launch angle up to 14 will make his numbers better than last season.