Article: Do the Brewers Need to Trade Christian Yelich?

[Seth Stohs]

If we are to believe that the Brewers intend to build around Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, and they want to extend Willy Adames, and they want to do so within a realistic budget, the team may have to trade Christian Yelich. 

According to the immensely valuable Cot's Contract, the Brewers' Opening Day, 26-man payroll was a team-high $131,930,160, the 19th-highest in baseball. If we are to assume that Mark Attanasio has directed new President of Baseball Operations Matt Arnold to keep payroll approximately the same, they will need to get creative. 

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are projected to make $11.4 million and $11.0 million, respectively. Brewers MVP Willy Adames is projected to get a bump to $9.2 million. Recently, we projected what a long-term contract with the two aces (Burnes, Woodruff) might look like. Summary... it's going to be a lot. If Willy Adames was a free agent, he would likely get a contract in the same price range as what Dansby Swanson might get this offseason.

The team tendered Hunter Renfroe and then traded him to the Angels for three pitchers rather than pay him about $11 million as well. 

The Yelich Contract
When the Brewers acquired Christian Yelich from the Marlins before the 2018 season, he was in the middle of a seven-year, $49.57 million deal. However, right before the 2020 season, the Brewers and Yelich agreed to replace the final two seasons of that deal with a new nine-year, $215 million deal that includes an option that could take the contract through the 2029 season. There are six years and $156 million remaining on the deal, plus the option. 

As has been pointed out in the Comments below, Yelich was also given full no-trade protection. Of course, that only means that he would have to OK any trade, not that he is untradeable, but it is another factor making it a difficult situation. 

The Yelich Production 
Yelich came to the Brewers and in his first season (2018), he won the National League MVP when he hit .326/.402/.598 (1.000) with 34 doubles, seven triples, 36 home runs, and 110 RBI. He came back in 2019 and was even better (but he finished 2nd in MVP voting). He hit .329/.429/.671 (1.100) with 29 doubles, three triples, 44 homers, and 97 RBI. Over those seasons, he stole 52 bases and was caught just six times. 

And then, almost inexplicably, his production plummeted.  In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, it's understandable because of the smaller sample size. He hit just .205/.356/.430 (.786) with seven doubles and 12 homers. Great on-base skills, but very low average. However, in 2021, things actually got worse. He hit .248/.362/.373 (.736) with 19 doubles and just nine home runs. In twice as many games, he hit three fewer homers than the previous year. Where did the power go? 

2022 was Yelich's age-30 season. He was able to play in 154 games and was a Gold Glove finalist. However, he hit .252/.355/.383 (.738) with 25 doubles and 14 homers. Three consecutive seasons with reduced power has become a theme, a trend... the new normal? 

Replacing Yelich 
Losing both corner outfield starters would seem difficult to replace, and that's fair. Tyrone Taylor will likely return. Garrett Mitchell came up in late August and had a solid month. He was named Best Rookie by Brewer Fanatic (video). In 28 games, he hit .311/.373/.459 (.832) with three doubles, two homers, nine RBI, and eight stolen bases (without being caught). 

Fellow Top 5 Brewers prospects, outfielders Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer both finished their seasons with two months at Triple-A Nashville.

Frelick was the team's top draft pick in 2021 (15th overall) from Boston College. He began the season at High-A Wisconsin where he posted an .847 OPS. He moved up to Double-A Biloxi and in 52 games, he hit .317/.380/.464 (.844) with 12 doubles, three triples, and five home runs. Then he finished his season with 46 games in Nashville where he hit .365/.435/.508 (.943) with 11 doubles, two triples and four homers. Combined, he had 24 steals in 32 attempts. He was named Brewer Fanatic's Minor League Hitter of the Year. 

Wiemer was the Brewers fourth-round pick in 2020 from Cincinnati. He began the 2022 season at Biloxi. After a huge start, he struggled, but in 84 games, he hit .243/.321/.440 (.761) with 19 doubles, 15 homers and 47 RBI. He also had 25 stolen bases in 26 attempts. He finished the season with Nashville and in 43 games, he hit .287/.368/.520 (.888) with 15 doubles, six homers and 30 RBI. He was 6-for-8 in steal attempts. (Brewers Spotlight with Joey Wiemer: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) 

Wiemer will turn 24 before the 2023 season, and Frelick will turn 23 shortly after the season begins. Both are good outfielders with strong arms. Speaking of good outfielders, Jackson Chourio was named a Rawlings minor-league Gold Glove winner for his work in center field in 2022. 

Chourio, who won't turn 19 until after the 2023 season begins, started his season in Extended Spring Training. Less than a month into the season, he was promoted to Low-A Carolina. In 62 games, he hit .324/.373/.600 (.973) with 23 doubles, five triples, and 12 home runs. He moved up to High-A Wisconsin and played in 31 games. He hit .252/.317/.488 (.805) with six doubles and eight homers. He even ended the season by getting a week (six games) with Double-A Biloxi. He had just two hits in 23 at-bats (.087), but one was a double. He was 16-for-20 in stolen base attempts. 

Chourio certainly isn't ready to join the Brewers quite yet, but at this stage, it's hard to put too many limitations on what the top prospect can do by the end of the 2023 season. Frelick and Wiemer are at least close to being ready to join Mitchell in the Brewers outfield. Will they be able to match the production of Yelich and Renfroe? Probably not, but it may be close. The defense in the outfield would certainly be strong. 

As important, at least in this conversation and discussion, those three outfield spots would all cost the league minimum or slightly more than it for 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons before arbitration would hit. That is significant to a team trying to lock up their two aces and potentially their franchise shortstop. 

A quick glance at the Brewer Fanatic End-of-Season Prospect Rankings show: 

1. Jackson Chourio
2. Sal Frelick
3. Joey Wiemer
4. Garrett Mitchell 

The Return for Yelich 
This is where things kind of get difficult. Would any team be interested in a 30-year-old former MVP who hasn't hit for average or power the past three seasons, but at least does have a great eye at the plate and solid defense, but is owed another $156 over the next six years?

I can't imagine that any team would be interested in acquiring Yelich's contract in a straight trade. If they did, the return might be less than the team received for Hunter Renfroe last week. If the Brewers are willing to eat a large chunk of the remaining contract, maybe up to $40-50 million, they might receive a decent prospect in return. It's also possible any team acquiring Yelich would insist that the Brewers take on a contract or two that they don't want. That's the give-and-take, the negotiations that would make such a deal really difficult to predict or even imagine. 

What's Going to Happen?
Alright, I intentionally wrote the above without having a definitive answer for how this situation could or even should play out. Here is where the discussions and conversations really begin. 

The reality is that Christian Yelich is not a bad player. He is a solid contributor to a big-league team. He plays good defense. He is solid near the top of the order because he does have good on-base skills. He is capable of hitting doubles and the occasional homer. He runs the bases well. He plays solid defense in left field. 

The 'problem' is that after arguably being grossly underpaid during the first seven seasons of his big-league career, he has been a big overpaid the past three seasons. FanGraphs says that he was worth 2.3 fWAR in 2022, or about $18.1 million. In 2021, he was at 1.6 fWAR, or $12 million. If I'm a team that is interested in a good player but maybe would prefer to only pay him about $16 million per year, the Brewers might have to throw in about $60 million in a potential trade. 

I think Matt Arnold and his staff should, and certainly will, have some initial conversations with teams about Yelich just to gauge interest and maybe even get some sense of what a trade might look like. It is hard to imagine that something can get done this offseason. If it can be, then Arnold deserves another promotion and raise. 

And I don't think that it is necessarily a bad thing to have Christian Yelich and his contract return in 2023. First, he will still be just 31 and he can do a lot of good things on the field. In addition, the three outfield prospects (plus the very young Mitchell) are not necessarily ready to jump into the team's lineup on opening day. Having the stability of the generally-healthy Yelich at the top of the order and in left field can be a positive and allow the youngsters a little more time to develop. 

In addition, even if Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames all stick around and get pay bumps via arbitration or contract extension, their 2023 numbers won't be as big as they will certainly be in 2024 and beyond. And so they can absorb Yelich's contract and still maintain a reasonable budget and have a competitive team in 2023. In addition, just because we may want the Brewers to reach long-term agreements to keep The Big Three around for a long time does not mean that they will be able to do that. The players may want to experience free agency, or their contract demands might be too much. Those decisions may also determine whether or not the Brewers decide to trade Kolten Wong, or even Eric Lauer? 

So I would conclude by saying that the Brewers should have a dialogue with other organizations regarding Yelich, but they shouldn't feel like it is mandatory to do this offseason. If they can, and it helps them lock up their aces, great. If not, they still have the talent to make another run in 2023. 

Your Turn
Feel free to share your thoughts in the Comments below. 

 

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[Robocaller]

No financially responsible team would be willing to trade for Yelich. I suppose it's possible for a team with an almost unlimited budget to take him, expecting more of the same from him as a floor and dreaming on him returning to MVP-level production. I'd be exploring such trades, but I doubt you could make one.

The alternative would be to trade Yelich and Burnes together for basically nothing (maybe a spare part or very marginal prospect). That doesn't make us better, though we'd be able to afford a couple of serviceable FAs with the cost savings.

I think the most likely successful course would be to expose Yelich to weird religious sects that would cause him to retire, if he joined them. That's the best-case scenario, assuming we don't want to indulge in any foul play. I don't think I'm joking.

 

[Robocaller]

No financially responsible team would be willing to trade for Yelich. I suppose it's possible for a team with an almost unlimited budget to take him, expecting more of the same from him as a floor and dreaming on him returning to MVP-level production. I'd be exploring such trades, but I doubt you could make one.

The alternative would be to trade Yelich and Burnes together for basically nothing (maybe a spare part or very marginal prospect). That doesn't make us better, though we'd be able to afford a couple of serviceable FAs with the cost savings.

I think the most likely successful course would be to expose Yelich to weird religious sects that would cause him to retire, if he joined them. That's the best-case scenario, assuming we don't want to indulge in any foul play. I don't think I'm joking.

 

[sveumrules]

FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE

[sveumrules]

FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE

[SF70]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE

Right, was just going to say that. As time goes on just try to hide him as a 5th OF/DH. I think that could start as early as this season due to the teams otherworldly OF talent.

To expect Yelich to improve over what he did last year just isn’t realistic based on the last 2.33 years worth of data. Maybe he can surprise, but I’m not counting on it. 

Based on age-regression performance it could get ugly at age 34/35 and if so he probably should be released at that point.

Just look at it as a lesson learned (Attanasio). This is why the team should not sign ANYONE to a long-term extension through a majority of their non-prime performance years. 

[SF70]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE

Right, was just going to say that. As time goes on just try to hide him as a 5th OF/DH. I think that could start as early as this season due to the teams otherworldly OF talent.

To expect Yelich to improve over what he did last year just isn’t realistic based on the last 2.33 years worth of data. Maybe he can surprise, but I’m not counting on it. 

Based on age-regression performance it could get ugly at age 34/35 and if so he probably should be released at that point.

Just look at it as a lesson learned (Attanasio). This is why the team should not sign ANYONE to a long-term extension through a majority of their non-prime performance years. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

In addition to the full NTC, kind of a gaping omission of the article to neglect mentioning Yelich shattering his kneecap by fouling a ball off his leg in mid September 2019 as a potential reason why his production at the plate dramatically changed since then.  Not to mention the fact he's consistently had back issues, which tend to not get better with age.

At the time Yelich's new contract was announced, I was happy with the deal but wondered why both sides would make the move when they did.  From Yelich's side, why lock in a longterm team-friendly discount after what was basically back to back MVP-level seasons?  From the Brewers' side, why do that deal right as COVID is blowing up stateside and threatening the 2020 season and why not wait at least until you can see similar onfield production after his knee injury when you still had him under team control on his prior deal for several more seasons?

[Fear The Chorizo]

In addition to the full NTC, kind of a gaping omission of the article to neglect mentioning Yelich shattering his kneecap by fouling a ball off his leg in mid September 2019 as a potential reason why his production at the plate dramatically changed since then.  Not to mention the fact he's consistently had back issues, which tend to not get better with age.

At the time Yelich's new contract was announced, I was happy with the deal but wondered why both sides would make the move when they did.  From Yelich's side, why lock in a longterm team-friendly discount after what was basically back to back MVP-level seasons?  From the Brewers' side, why do that deal right as COVID is blowing up stateside and threatening the 2020 season and why not wait at least until you can see similar onfield production after his knee injury when you still had him under team control on his prior deal for several more seasons?

[wibadgers23]

Yelich will be a Brewer for a long time.  Just move him to DH and hope for the best at this point.  Best case scenario is his numbers return to his days as a Marlin.  Worst case scenario is we're paying him $25 million a year to watch him hit little dribblers to the right side every AB.

[wibadgers23]

Yelich will be a Brewer for a long time.  Just move him to DH and hope for the best at this point.  Best case scenario is his numbers return to his days as a Marlin.  Worst case scenario is we're paying him $25 million a year to watch him hit little dribblers to the right side every AB.

[UpandIn]

I don't think you trade him with Burnes and call it a wash. 

First, I'd just write the 28M in deferred money to a sunk cost. I don't think a team is going to take that on.

Second, not this year, but if he has another 3 WAR season next year, I'd agree to send ~40M with him in a deal, at which point a team would be paying roughly 5 years and 110M, 70M with the Brewers eating 40M of that money. 

At that point, his contract is more like Aaron Hicks, but he's a much better hitter. Then...maybe you can get out from a big chunk of that money and you'd have young players who could step in, play the OF, they'd be cheap and...MAYBE if a team was desperate you could make a trade. 

Not real likely, but also '22 Yelich isn't quite the albatross he's painted as. Especially as the shift should help him as much as just about anyone. Best case is he can get up to ~280/.370/.400 with the limited shift, be a valuable hitter atop the order and we just....live with it. Worst case is his back gets worse and we're stuck eating the whole contract and he's in and out of the lineup. So not much different than '21.

 

The deal made a lot of sense, just...didn't work out. Kinda like the guy who won the MVP after him, Cody Bellinger...who the Dodgers had also tried to lock up. Just bad luck. I don't think it was the knee, I think it was the back, but whatever it is, he hits the ball hard still...just on the ground and to the right side of the IF. So again, hopefully the new rules benefit him. 

[UpandIn]

I don't think you trade him with Burnes and call it a wash. 

First, I'd just write the 28M in deferred money to a sunk cost. I don't think a team is going to take that on.

Second, not this year, but if he has another 3 WAR season next year, I'd agree to send ~40M with him in a deal, at which point a team would be paying roughly 5 years and 110M, 70M with the Brewers eating 40M of that money. 

At that point, his contract is more like Aaron Hicks, but he's a much better hitter. Then...maybe you can get out from a big chunk of that money and you'd have young players who could step in, play the OF, they'd be cheap and...MAYBE if a team was desperate you could make a trade. 

Not real likely, but also '22 Yelich isn't quite the albatross he's painted as. Especially as the shift should help him as much as just about anyone. Best case is he can get up to ~280/.370/.400 with the limited shift, be a valuable hitter atop the order and we just....live with it. Worst case is his back gets worse and we're stuck eating the whole contract and he's in and out of the lineup. So not much different than '21.

 

The deal made a lot of sense, just...didn't work out. Kinda like the guy who won the MVP after him, Cody Bellinger...who the Dodgers had also tried to lock up. Just bad luck. I don't think it was the knee, I think it was the back, but whatever it is, he hits the ball hard still...just on the ground and to the right side of the IF. So again, hopefully the new rules benefit him. 

[MrTPlush]

I doubt the Brewers would even try floating the idea themselves. The last thing the Brewers need is PR about how they are trying to dump Yelich. Especially since it is essentially impossible and he has a full no trade clause. 

All we would get out of approaching other teams is laughter and look stupid. 

[MrTPlush]

I doubt the Brewers would even try floating the idea themselves. The last thing the Brewers need is PR about how they are trying to dump Yelich. Especially since it is essentially impossible and he has a full no trade clause. 

All we would get out of approaching other teams is laughter and look stupid. 

[JosephC]

People put a lot in the no trade clause.  For some reason I don't see Yelich killing any deal that would send him to a California team outside of the A's.  Really think Yelich would rather play for the Brewers instead of the Yankees or Mets?  How about the Astros, Red Sox, Braves, Phillies?  He'd have to be head-over-heels in love with finishing 7th every year, or has no real interest in having a good chance of winning a World Series, or be a complete no-brain MLBPA lackey that MAY ask him to put his "below average contract in a big market" concept ahead of his own self-interest (which is the one realistic possibility that I can see, but even don't think that is likely since Yelich doesn't appear to be a star-level player anymore).  

[JosephC]

People put a lot in the no trade clause.  For some reason I don't see Yelich killing any deal that would send him to a California team outside of the A's.  Really think Yelich would rather play for the Brewers instead of the Yankees or Mets?  How about the Astros, Red Sox, Braves, Phillies?  He'd have to be head-over-heels in love with finishing 7th every year, or has no real interest in having a good chance of winning a World Series, or be a complete no-brain MLBPA lackey that MAY ask him to put his "below average contract in a big market" concept ahead of his own self-interest (which is the one realistic possibility that I can see, but even don't think that is likely since Yelich doesn't appear to be a star-level player anymore).  

[Seth Stohs]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE

Thanks for the note. I did update the article to point that out. Of course, that doesn't mean he can't be traded, just that he would have to OK any deal... That makes it a bit more difficult. 

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

In addition to the full NTC, kind of a gaping omission of the article to neglect mentioning Yelich shattering his kneecap by fouling a ball off his leg in mid September 2019 as a potential reason why his production at the plate dramatically changed since then.  Not to mention the fact he's consistently had back issues, which tend to not get better with age.

At the time Yelich's new contract was announced, I was happy with the deal but wondered why both sides would make the move when they did.  From Yelich's side, why lock in a longterm team-friendly discount after what was basically back to back MVP-level seasons?  From the Brewers' side, why do that deal right as COVID is blowing up stateside and threatening the 2020 season and why not wait at least until you can see similar onfield production after his knee injury when you still had him under team control on his prior deal for several more seasons?

That is a terrific point. I chose not to dig too much into the injury history because he played in 154 games last year, which is pretty good. That said, any contract with any player beyond age 30 has to come with a "Beware of lingering injuries" warning... 

[JosephC]

So I'm just going to steal this from the Baseball Trade Values site.  Bottom five contracts in terms of surplus value (and there is a pretty sizable gap between #5 and #6) are Strasburg, Rendon, Yelich, Stanton and Bryant.  The Brewers are not going to trade Burnes or any prospect(s) to get rid of Yelich.  The only realistic way of getting Yelich off the roster is to take one of these bad contracts back.  It would make perfect sense for the Angels to do a Rendon/Yelich swap.  But Yelich has 162.5 million left on his deal and it's more spread out (no more than 26 million in a single season and part of that is deferred), whereas Rendon has 152 million left on his deal and that's all crammed into 4 seasons.  Imagine saving 10 million in the long-term but actually losing 12+ million in "payroll space" each of the next 4 years, and in the swap you pick up a player who probably projects at a lower WAR than Yelich does.  Stanton has a full no-trade clause and...well, he's not likely to waive that to go from the Yankees to Milwaukee.  Oh, that no-trade clause was in effect when he was with the Marlins...didn't stop him from going to the Yankees when he got the chance.  The remainder of Bryant's contract is actually very similar to Yelich, but he has that messed up foot that probably makes him a bigger risk than Yelich going forward.  Has Strasburg retired yet?  Looking likely that his contract will go down in history as being even worse than the Chris Davis deal, and that is saying something!

Don't see any scenario at this point that moves Yelich off of the Brewer's roster.

[Thurston Fluff]

This article would have been better had it focused on talking to Yelich about accepting a trade. If they approach Yelich and asked him who he would waive his no trade clause for we'd at least know which teams not to waste our time talking to. Personally I don't think he'd accept any trade. In generally there are few markets that have as tolerant a media or fan base for under performing athletes than Milwaukee. Less so for a player who has no past performance legacy for the team. He'd be going to a place where he didn't have any good will built up and expose himself to all kinds of grief.

[MrTPlush]

32 minutes ago, JosephC said:

People put a lot in the no trade clause.  For some reason I don't see Yelich killing any deal that would send him to a California team outside of the A's.  Really think Yelich would rather play for the Brewers instead of the Yankees or Mets?  How about the Astros, Red Sox, Braves, Phillies?  He'd have to be head-over-heels in love with finishing 7th every year, or has no real interest in having a good chance of winning a World Series, or be a complete no-brain MLBPA lackey that MAY ask him to put his "below average contract in a big market" concept ahead of his own self-interest (which is the one realistic possibility that I can see, but even don't think that is likely since Yelich doesn't appear to be a star-level player anymore).  

Those fanbases would actually expect him to perform and would pelt him with stones if he didn't. 

In Milwaukee he can casually be average and still have a cult following of fangirls who don't care if he goes 0-50.

He followed in his buddies footsteps (Braun) and made sure to sign a massive extension before he turned into a crippled pumpkin. Braun decided it was easier to just play for Milwaukee versus going to a team like the Dodgers. 

Playing for a coast team is overrated. During the season you are basically working 24/7 outside of sleeping. You don't really get to chill on the beach all day...half the time you aren't even at home anyway. He is filthy rich...he can just own a Malibu house and enjoy it in the offseason. That is what Braun did.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

He improved his batting from 2020&2021.  That's positive that he can continue. I think there was a total lack of confidence in 2020 and 2021. But statcast in 2022 his numbers are early days in Miami return to.  

His defense though-Statcast listed him 1pct or the worst OF jump on Balls hit.  Gotta move him to DH which maybe allows the back to hold up more.

Theres just no chance Yelich is traded even if there wasn't a no trade clause. His launch angle is too low and his age reduces that Exit velocity continually so his best days are behind him. Think we'll see more consistent seasons with where his numbers sat in 2022 and 2020 BA is a thing of the past.

[Jopal78]

No other team would take the financial commitment owed to Yelich.

The Brewers do not pay significant cash to move bad contracts.

There's your answer. Nice click bait though ?

[reillymcshane]

No team takes on $150m+ for a soon-to-be 31-year old outfielder who is a solid, but not that good. Plus he's aging and has an injury history. That's a disaster waiting to happen.

Yelich's 2.8 bWAR is the best he's produced in three years. If he can do that going forward, he's still a valuable player. But does any team really think he can sustain that production when he's 35-36 years old? 

I'd love to see Yelich rebound - even a little - and just stay healthy. If he could hit .260-.270 with 20 HRs - he's a good player to have. Overpaid? Yes, but still decent. 

But no team is going to expect big things from him. They'll see a guy that has lost his power and skills, has a rag arm, and is past his prime. Why trade for that?