Article: Where Does the Roster Stand Post Renfroe Trade?

[monty57]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Renfroe is actually a nice four hitter in today’s game. Decent average, good power.

But what has really exposed the Brewer offense is the 2/3 hitters. You have Yelich at leadoff, which is actually pretty nice, but there isn’t even one guy they can slot in with a .270/.350/.450 line that you want manning the second and third slot.

Brewer run scoring was solid in 2022 but it could have been very good with better top of the order bats. Not superstars, just a guy like Adames not having a down year. 

Yeah, Adames' down season (especially in avg/OBP) mixed with McCutchen being forced into the top of the order every day hurt. There was no consistency behind Yelich.

I also think that the team's insistence that you cannot put two LH hitters back-to-back in the order hurts. Our best "vs RHP" lineup to start the season would probably have Yelich and Wong at the top of the order. With Yelich, Mitchell, Wong, Frelick, Tellez on the roster, it might be hard to find ways to not have back-to-back lefties.

Without Renfroe, it really throws the LRLRLR lineup for a loop, because it means that someone like Hiura or Urias would be the regular clean-up hitter. That's another reason to believe that we're going to pick up a RH corner-IF/DH before the season starts.

I hope that Frelick and Mitchell will continue to be higher-OBP guys as they transition to the majors. It will be interesting to see where Counsell puts them in the lineup to start the season, but as the season progresses, I expect to see them moved up in the order. Turang is another high-OBP guy that will eventually hit the majors as we continue the transition away from high-SLG, high K, "all or nothing" approach guys.

Of course, a lot will depend on what other moves are coming. As I mentioned, I think we're going to pick up another RH bat and I think that will make things look a lot different than they currently stand. Maybe freeing up $11M by trading Renfroe in order to sign Contreras to a $20M-per year deal would make people feel better about the trade :-) 

[monty57]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Renfroe is actually a nice four hitter in today’s game. Decent average, good power.

But what has really exposed the Brewer offense is the 2/3 hitters. You have Yelich at leadoff, which is actually pretty nice, but there isn’t even one guy they can slot in with a .270/.350/.450 line that you want manning the second and third slot.

Brewer run scoring was solid in 2022 but it could have been very good with better top of the order bats. Not superstars, just a guy like Adames not having a down year. 

Yeah, Adames' down season (especially in avg/OBP) mixed with McCutchen being forced into the top of the order every day hurt. There was no consistency behind Yelich.

I also think that the team's insistence that you cannot put two LH hitters back-to-back in the order hurts. Our best "vs RHP" lineup to start the season would probably have Yelich and Wong at the top of the order. With Yelich, Mitchell, Wong, Frelick, Tellez on the roster, it might be hard to find ways to not have back-to-back lefties.

Without Renfroe, it really throws the LRLRLR lineup for a loop, because it means that someone like Hiura or Urias would be the regular clean-up hitter. That's another reason to believe that we're going to pick up a RH corner-IF/DH before the season starts.

I hope that Frelick and Mitchell will continue to be higher-OBP guys as they transition to the majors. It will be interesting to see where Counsell puts them in the lineup to start the season, but as the season progresses, I expect to see them moved up in the order. Turang is another high-OBP guy that will eventually hit the majors as we continue the transition away from high-SLG, high K, "all or nothing" approach guys.

Of course, a lot will depend on what other moves are coming. As I mentioned, I think we're going to pick up another RH bat and I think that will make things look a lot different than they currently stand. Maybe freeing up $11M by trading Renfroe in order to sign Contreras to a $20M-per year deal would make people feel better about the trade :-) 

[Lajitas]

On 11/24/2022 at 10:33 AM, monty57 said:

Yelich and Woodruff would take up close to half our payroll, leaving around $50-$60M for the remaining 24 players (around $2-$2.5M per player on average). It will take a lot of league minimum players to make that happen. The best way to get these players would be by trading away the other two stars.

Your numbers are a bit off there.  Yelich is signed for $26 M and an extension for Woodruff would be in the same range as what Castillo signed ($24 M).  That's around $50 M combined for them both, leaving about $80 M for the rest of the team.

[Lajitas]

On 11/24/2022 at 10:33 AM, monty57 said:

Yelich and Woodruff would take up close to half our payroll, leaving around $50-$60M for the remaining 24 players (around $2-$2.5M per player on average). It will take a lot of league minimum players to make that happen. The best way to get these players would be by trading away the other two stars.

Your numbers are a bit off there.  Yelich is signed for $26 M and an extension for Woodruff would be in the same range as what Castillo signed ($24 M).  That's around $50 M combined for them both, leaving about $80 M for the rest of the team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, monty57 said:

Yeah, Adames' down season (especially in avg/OBP) mixed with McCutchen being forced into the top of the order every day hurt. There was no consistency behind Yelich.

I also think that the team's insistence that you cannot put two LH hitters back-to-back in the order hurts. Our best "vs RHP" lineup to start the season would probably have Yelich and Wong at the top of the order. With Yelich, Mitchell, Wong, Frelick, Tellez on the roster, it might be hard to find ways to not have back-to-back lefties.

Without Renfroe, it really throws the LRLRLR lineup for a loop, because it means that someone like Hiura or Urias would be the regular clean-up hitter. That's another reason to believe that we're going to pick up a RH corner-IF/DH before the season starts.

I hope that Frelick and Mitchell will continue to be higher-OBP guys as they transition to the majors. It will be interesting to see where Counsell puts them in the lineup to start the season, but as the season progresses, I expect to see them moved up in the order. Turang is another high-OBP guy that will eventually hit the majors as we continue the transition away from high-SLG, high K, "all or nothing" approach guys.

Of course, a lot will depend on what other moves are coming. As I mentioned, I think we're going to pick up another RH bat and I think that will make things look a lot different than they currently stand. Maybe freeing up $11M by trading Renfroe in order to sign Contreras to a $20M-per year deal would make people feel better about the trade :-) 

This roster could really use a lefty-killer platoon specialist. Having that available opens a lot of opportunities to stack lefties together while not allowing the opposing a manger to exploit that from the sixth inning onward. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, monty57 said:

Yeah, Adames' down season (especially in avg/OBP) mixed with McCutchen being forced into the top of the order every day hurt. There was no consistency behind Yelich.

I also think that the team's insistence that you cannot put two LH hitters back-to-back in the order hurts. Our best "vs RHP" lineup to start the season would probably have Yelich and Wong at the top of the order. With Yelich, Mitchell, Wong, Frelick, Tellez on the roster, it might be hard to find ways to not have back-to-back lefties.

Without Renfroe, it really throws the LRLRLR lineup for a loop, because it means that someone like Hiura or Urias would be the regular clean-up hitter. That's another reason to believe that we're going to pick up a RH corner-IF/DH before the season starts.

I hope that Frelick and Mitchell will continue to be higher-OBP guys as they transition to the majors. It will be interesting to see where Counsell puts them in the lineup to start the season, but as the season progresses, I expect to see them moved up in the order. Turang is another high-OBP guy that will eventually hit the majors as we continue the transition away from high-SLG, high K, "all or nothing" approach guys.

Of course, a lot will depend on what other moves are coming. As I mentioned, I think we're going to pick up another RH bat and I think that will make things look a lot different than they currently stand. Maybe freeing up $11M by trading Renfroe in order to sign Contreras to a $20M-per year deal would make people feel better about the trade :-) 

This roster could really use a lefty-killer platoon specialist. Having that available opens a lot of opportunities to stack lefties together while not allowing the opposing a manger to exploit that from the sixth inning onward. 

[UpandIn]

18 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Renfroe is actually a nice four hitter in today’s game. Decent average, good power.

But what has really exposed the Brewer offense is the 2/3 hitters. You have Yelich at leadoff, which is actually pretty nice, but there isn’t even one guy they can slot in with a .270/.350/.450 line that you want manning the second and third slot.

Brewer run scoring was solid in 2022 but it could have been very good with better top of the order bats. Not superstars, just a guy like Adames not having a down year. 

That's where Frelick should be huge for the Brewers. I just don't know what they're going to do to add right handed bats. Everyone keeps saying you can replace what Renfroe gave you by putting Frelick in there, but you can't. The power and...again, the ability to hit lefties is a big loss. 

We'll see where they end up, but that seemed like a very reasonable 1 year deal bridging the gap until Wiemer was ready. 

And I don't buy that because his chase rate was up from 33% to 34%, that's some indicator of things to come(especially as the point was made that his chase rate from '21 and '22 going up and the age of 31 being key indicators). It's a marginal tick up. 

Same with the BA with RISP. Yeah, you need to get guys who can put the ball in place, take an extra base, all those things. You could have added those things without getting rid of Renfroe.

 

But until we see what this lineup looks like to start next year, I won't worry about it too much. But we're certainly not looking great at THIS moment. Expecting Wiemer to step in and replace what Renfroe did is asking a lot. I think Frelick as a whole can more than replace Renfroe, he was coming up either way. 

So again, I'll just wait and see how this off-season goes. 

[UpandIn]

18 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Renfroe is actually a nice four hitter in today’s game. Decent average, good power.

But what has really exposed the Brewer offense is the 2/3 hitters. You have Yelich at leadoff, which is actually pretty nice, but there isn’t even one guy they can slot in with a .270/.350/.450 line that you want manning the second and third slot.

Brewer run scoring was solid in 2022 but it could have been very good with better top of the order bats. Not superstars, just a guy like Adames not having a down year. 

That's where Frelick should be huge for the Brewers. I just don't know what they're going to do to add right handed bats. Everyone keeps saying you can replace what Renfroe gave you by putting Frelick in there, but you can't. The power and...again, the ability to hit lefties is a big loss. 

We'll see where they end up, but that seemed like a very reasonable 1 year deal bridging the gap until Wiemer was ready. 

And I don't buy that because his chase rate was up from 33% to 34%, that's some indicator of things to come(especially as the point was made that his chase rate from '21 and '22 going up and the age of 31 being key indicators). It's a marginal tick up. 

Same with the BA with RISP. Yeah, you need to get guys who can put the ball in place, take an extra base, all those things. You could have added those things without getting rid of Renfroe.

 

But until we see what this lineup looks like to start next year, I won't worry about it too much. But we're certainly not looking great at THIS moment. Expecting Wiemer to step in and replace what Renfroe did is asking a lot. I think Frelick as a whole can more than replace Renfroe, he was coming up either way. 

So again, I'll just wait and see how this off-season goes. 

[monty57]

3 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Your numbers are a bit off there.  Yelich is signed for $26 M and an extension for Woodruff would be in the same range as what Castillo signed ($24 M).  That's around $50 M combined for them both, leaving about $80 M for the rest of the team.

I’d be pretty surprised if they have on opening day roster of $130M again this year. My guess is it’ll be around $110-$115. Right now, Cots has us around $102. 
 

I know some people don’t believe this, and no one wants to hear it, but last year’s $132M was probably over budget in a “go for it” year. Unfortunately, with reduced attendance, they probably lost money and we’ll see a reduction in payroll this year that will continue until ticket sales go back up. 

[monty57]

3 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Your numbers are a bit off there.  Yelich is signed for $26 M and an extension for Woodruff would be in the same range as what Castillo signed ($24 M).  That's around $50 M combined for them both, leaving about $80 M for the rest of the team.

I’d be pretty surprised if they have on opening day roster of $130M again this year. My guess is it’ll be around $110-$115. Right now, Cots has us around $102. 
 

I know some people don’t believe this, and no one wants to hear it, but last year’s $132M was probably over budget in a “go for it” year. Unfortunately, with reduced attendance, they probably lost money and we’ll see a reduction in payroll this year that will continue until ticket sales go back up. 

[monty57]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This roster could really use a lefty-killer platoon specialist. Having that available opens a lot of opportunities to stack lefties together while not allowing the opposing a manger to exploit that from the sixth inning onward. 

They have Brosseau as a “lefty killer,” but they could definitely use another solid RH bat. Hiura can’t hit lefties, so as of right now, we’ve got Taylor and whoever our backup catcher ends up being. 

[monty57]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This roster could really use a lefty-killer platoon specialist. Having that available opens a lot of opportunities to stack lefties together while not allowing the opposing a manger to exploit that from the sixth inning onward. 

They have Brosseau as a “lefty killer,” but they could definitely use another solid RH bat. Hiura can’t hit lefties, so as of right now, we’ve got Taylor and whoever our backup catcher ends up being. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, monty57 said:

They have Brosseau as a “lefty killer,” but they could definitely use another solid RH bat. Hiura can’t hit lefties, so as of right now, we’ve got Taylor and whoever our backup catcher ends up being. 

Which is why I've been ready to move on from Hiura for awhile. I hope the Brewers can get an A ball lottery ticket, move on, and replace his roster spot with someone who complements the lineup much more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, monty57 said:

They have Brosseau as a “lefty killer,” but they could definitely use another solid RH bat. Hiura can’t hit lefties, so as of right now, we’ve got Taylor and whoever our backup catcher ends up being. 

Which is why I've been ready to move on from Hiura for awhile. I hope the Brewers can get an A ball lottery ticket, move on, and replace his roster spot with someone who complements the lineup much more.

[Lajitas]

23 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I’d be pretty surprised if they have on opening day roster of $130M again this year. My guess is it’ll be around $110-$115. Right now, Cots has us around $102. 
 

I know some people don’t believe this, and no one wants to hear it, but last year’s $132M was probably over budget in a “go for it” year. Unfortunately, with reduced attendance, they probably lost money and we’ll see a reduction in payroll this year that will continue until ticket sales go back up. 

Yes, attendance was down compared to pre-pandemic levels.  But the average ticket price was also up.  Average ticket price times attendance for 2022 was only about $8 M less than 2019.  And that is countered by the revenue from the national TV deal being up about $8 M per team.

Plus, that $24 M salary number for a Woodruff extension wouldn't be for this season.  It would be for the 2025 season.  Even with signing an extension that buys out some of Woodruff's free agent years, he's still going to get around the $11 M he's projected to get this year.  Luis Castillo's deal with the Mariners, one that seems to be roughly what Woodruff would get, is only paying him $11.4 for 2023, as that would have been his final arbitration year.  Castillo's $24 M years don't kick in until 2024, which would have been his first free agent year.

Even figuring a $110 M payroll, Yelich and Woodruff's combined $37 M leaves over $70 M for the rest of the team.

Also, there's is no evidence that 2023 isn't also going to be a "go for it" year.  Trading Renfroe doesn't change that one bit.  Picking up Wong's option, not trading Adames, Burnes or Woodruff (and the indications are that they won't) means the team is still in "go for it" mode.

[Lajitas]

23 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I’d be pretty surprised if they have on opening day roster of $130M again this year. My guess is it’ll be around $110-$115. Right now, Cots has us around $102. 
 

I know some people don’t believe this, and no one wants to hear it, but last year’s $132M was probably over budget in a “go for it” year. Unfortunately, with reduced attendance, they probably lost money and we’ll see a reduction in payroll this year that will continue until ticket sales go back up. 

Yes, attendance was down compared to pre-pandemic levels.  But the average ticket price was also up.  Average ticket price times attendance for 2022 was only about $8 M less than 2019.  And that is countered by the revenue from the national TV deal being up about $8 M per team.

Plus, that $24 M salary number for a Woodruff extension wouldn't be for this season.  It would be for the 2025 season.  Even with signing an extension that buys out some of Woodruff's free agent years, he's still going to get around the $11 M he's projected to get this year.  Luis Castillo's deal with the Mariners, one that seems to be roughly what Woodruff would get, is only paying him $11.4 for 2023, as that would have been his final arbitration year.  Castillo's $24 M years don't kick in until 2024, which would have been his first free agent year.

Even figuring a $110 M payroll, Yelich and Woodruff's combined $37 M leaves over $70 M for the rest of the team.

Also, there's is no evidence that 2023 isn't also going to be a "go for it" year.  Trading Renfroe doesn't change that one bit.  Picking up Wong's option, not trading Adames, Burnes or Woodruff (and the indications are that they won't) means the team is still in "go for it" mode.

[Lajitas]

Let's take a look at the roster and the payroll.  We'll use the 40-man, actual salaries for those that are signed, MLBtraderumors' projected arbitration numbers and $750 K for pre-arbitration players (league minimum will be $720 K; some will get more)

Starting lineup:  C - Caratini ($2.8 M projection) / 1B - Tellez ($5.3 M projection) / 2B - Wong $10 M / SS - Adames ($9.2 M projection) / 3B - Urias ($4.3 M projection) / LF - Yelich $26 M / CF - Taylor $750 K / RF - Mitchell $750 K  Total: $59.1 M

Bench:  Feliciano - $750 K / Brosseau - ($1.2 M projection) / Hiura - ($2 M projection) / Singleton - $750 K / Ruiz - $750 K  Total: $5.45 M

Rotation:  Burnes - ($11.4 M projection) / Woodruff - ($11 M projection) / Peralta - $3.5 M / Lauer - ($5.2 M projection) / Houser - $3.6 M  Total:  $34.7 M

Bullpen:  Williams - ($3.2 M projection) / Bush - $1.85 M / Ashby - $1 M / Milner - ($1.1 M projection) / 4 various pre-arb out of the 7-8 on the option shuttle - $3 M total  Total:  $10.15 M

Total for the 26-man:  $109.4 M

[Lajitas]

Let's take a look at the roster and the payroll.  We'll use the 40-man, actual salaries for those that are signed, MLBtraderumors' projected arbitration numbers and $750 K for pre-arbitration players (league minimum will be $720 K; some will get more)

Starting lineup:  C - Caratini ($2.8 M projection) / 1B - Tellez ($5.3 M projection) / 2B - Wong $10 M / SS - Adames ($9.2 M projection) / 3B - Urias ($4.3 M projection) / LF - Yelich $26 M / CF - Taylor $750 K / RF - Mitchell $750 K  Total: $59.1 M

Bench:  Feliciano - $750 K / Brosseau - ($1.2 M projection) / Hiura - ($2 M projection) / Singleton - $750 K / Ruiz - $750 K  Total: $5.45 M

Rotation:  Burnes - ($11.4 M projection) / Woodruff - ($11 M projection) / Peralta - $3.5 M / Lauer - ($5.2 M projection) / Houser - $3.6 M  Total:  $34.7 M

Bullpen:  Williams - ($3.2 M projection) / Bush - $1.85 M / Ashby - $1 M / Milner - ($1.1 M projection) / 4 various pre-arb out of the 7-8 on the option shuttle - $3 M total  Total:  $10.15 M

Total for the 26-man:  $109.4 M

[sveumrules]

I wouldn’t be surprised if OD payroll is $100M or $150M or anywhere in between. (ok, I’ll be kinda surprised if it ends up at $150M)

I’d say general fan sentiment has been trending down since the 2021 playoffs,  with the Hader trade and missing the playoffs this year compounding things further.

The only two things I can see reversing that trend are having another Yelich/Cain “big moves” kind of offseason to drum up excitement or making a deep postseason run. Doing both would be ideal. One might even help facilitate the other.

I don’t think extending one of Burnes, Woody or Adames really moves the fan excitement needle much since they were going to be here next year anyway.

Even trading for outside help is risky because the same prospects who aren’t good enough to replace Renfroe will somehow also be too much to give up for whoever we get in return.

For me personally, a splashy offseason at the outer reaches of feasibility would be extending one of Adames/Woody, trading for Sean Murphy and signing Jose Abreu (which likely would put payroll in franchise record territory again), though I feel like that still wouldn’t quite clear the all-in threshold for many.

Trading for Yandy Diaz then signing Christian Vazquez and Michael Brantley is probably a lot more realistic, but that definitely isn’t selling any season ticket packages.

[sveumrules]

I wouldn’t be surprised if OD payroll is $100M or $150M or anywhere in between. (ok, I’ll be kinda surprised if it ends up at $150M)

I’d say general fan sentiment has been trending down since the 2021 playoffs,  with the Hader trade and missing the playoffs this year compounding things further.

The only two things I can see reversing that trend are having another Yelich/Cain “big moves” kind of offseason to drum up excitement or making a deep postseason run. Doing both would be ideal. One might even help facilitate the other.

I don’t think extending one of Burnes, Woody or Adames really moves the fan excitement needle much since they were going to be here next year anyway.

Even trading for outside help is risky because the same prospects who aren’t good enough to replace Renfroe will somehow also be too much to give up for whoever we get in return.

For me personally, a splashy offseason at the outer reaches of feasibility would be extending one of Adames/Woody, trading for Sean Murphy and signing Jose Abreu (which likely would put payroll in franchise record territory again), though I feel like that still wouldn’t quite clear the all-in threshold for many.

Trading for Yandy Diaz then signing Christian Vazquez and Michael Brantley is probably a lot more realistic, but that definitely isn’t selling any season ticket packages.

[Lajitas]

We have less than 1% chance of signing Abreu.  People need to get over that idea.  Jesus, talk about self-fulfilling.  "It's going to be a disappointing off-season if we don't do something that there is no chance of happening."

[Lajitas]

We have less than 1% chance of signing Abreu.  People need to get over that idea.  Jesus, talk about self-fulfilling.  "It's going to be a disappointing off-season if we don't do something that there is no chance of happening."

[DR28]

2 hours ago, Lajitas said:

We have less than 1% chance of signing Abreu.  People need to get over that idea.  Jesus, talk about self-fulfilling.  "It's going to be a disappointing off-season if we don't do something that there is no chance of happening."

Yea I dont get why everyone thinks we'll land Abreu... He is #1 target of Padres and Im sure other teams as well, Abreu will not be a Brewer.

[DR28]

2 hours ago, Lajitas said:

We have less than 1% chance of signing Abreu.  People need to get over that idea.  Jesus, talk about self-fulfilling.  "It's going to be a disappointing off-season if we don't do something that there is no chance of happening."

Yea I dont get why everyone thinks we'll land Abreu... He is #1 target of Padres and Im sure other teams as well, Abreu will not be a Brewer.

[UpandIn]

On 11/26/2022 at 11:46 AM, DR28 said:

Yea I dont get why everyone thinks we'll land Abreu... He is #1 target of Padres and Im sure other teams as well, Abreu will not be a Brewer.

 

On 11/24/2022 at 1:57 AM, BlightyBrew said:

Everyone on this board acts like the extension are completely controlled by the Brewers and players have no say in it.

 

Why does "everyone" on this board act like "everyone" makes these statements that aren't remotely true?

The overwhelming majority of the Burnes/Woodruff discussion has been centered around IF either would sign for comparable deals. Woodruff->Luis Castillo and Burnes in the deGrom 5/135 range. 

Who has said that it's just up to the Brewers if players sign extensions? In fact I'd guess the majority of people have said it's unlikely either would sign an extension at this point.

Same with Abreu. We know three things now about Abreu with regard to free agency. His preference was to stay in Chicago. He is "a top priority for the Padres." And he wants to continue to play 1B.  
I don't know how the numbers work out to  1% chance that he signs with the Brewers or what that's based off, but it's kinda silly. 

Maybe "everyone" should just stop speaking for "everyone?"