What Level Will Prospects Begin in 2023?

[ClosetBrewerFan]

2 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I could be wrong, but unless they missed their first year on the IL, I think Castaneda, Hall and everyone Martinez and below are free agents after 2024.

Good catch. I was going off of when they signed a contract, but the players you mentioned did not play in their first year.

[damuelle]

Adding so many AAA-level pitchers (Junk, Miller, Stock, Pannone, Rea, Wiles, Myers, Peguero, Yeager, Claudio, Vieira) had me re-checking where I expect MILB pitchers to start the 2023 season. Here's what I've got for Starting Pitchers - 7-8 at each level to allow for injuries/trades:

• AAA: Jason Alexander, Janson Junk, LHP Ethan Small, LHP Robert Gasser, Caleb Boushley, Colin Rea, LHP Thomas Pannone
• AA: Victor Castaneda, Carlos F. Rodriguez (accelerated move), LHP Brandon Knarr, LHP Adam Seminaris, Justin Jarvis, LHP Russell Smith (sink or swim), LHP Nick Bennett
• High-A: Stiven Cruz, Joseph Hernandez, Alexander Cornielle, Israel Puello, Jeison Pena (others see as a reliever), Cameron Wagoner, Ryne Moore
• Low-A: Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, LHP Nate Peterson, Alexander Vallecillo, Yujanyer Herrera, Arielbi Gonzalez, Brailin Rodriguez (assuming full recovery), Edwin Jimenez

[Joseph Zarr]

5 hours ago, damuelle said:

Adding so many AAA-level pitchers (Junk, Miller, Stock, Pannone, Rea, Wiles, Myers, Peguero, Yeager, Claudio, Vieira) had me re-checking where I expect MILB pitchers to start the 2023 season. Here's what I've got for Starting Pitchers - 7-8 at each level to allow for injuries/trades:

• AAA: Jason Alexander, Janson Junk, LHP Ethan Small, LHP Robert Gasser, Caleb Boushley, Colin Rea, LHP Thomas Pannone
• AA: Victor Castaneda, Carlos F. Rodriguez (accelerated move), LHP Brandon Knarr, LHP Adam Seminaris, Justin Jarvis, LHP Russell Smith (sink or swim), LHP Nick Bennett
• High-A: Stiven Cruz, Joseph Hernandez, Alexander Cornielle, Israel Puello, Jeison Pena (others see as a reliever), Cameron Wagoner, Ryne Moore
• Low-A: Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, LHP Nate Peterson, Alexander Vallecillo, Yujanyer Herrera, Arielbi Gonzalez, Brailin Rodriguez (assuming full recovery), Edwin Jimenez

I have a very hard time (personally speaking) envisioning LHP Russell Smith being selected in Biloxi over RHP TJ Shook - who ended his Double-A season on a decent note. I saw very little to any consistency from Smith deserving of a promotion to a League consistently demonstrating it is quite tough to pitch in. Let Smith prove he has honed his control and his overall arsenal for 2-3 months in Wisconsin before considering a move that could be considered strictly related to draft position over demonstrable results, imho. 

Thanks for the effort and reflections here!

[damuelle]

Having added Skye Bolt and Monte Harrison to the AAA outfield over the past 48 hours had me re-checking expected outfield MILB placements. Here's my current breakdown of 5-6 outfielders per level to start 2023, allowing for possible opt-outs, trades, injuries and releases:

• AAA: Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins, Skye Bolt, Monte Harrison, Tristen Lutz
• AA: Jackson Chourio, Joe Gray Jr. (really hope he figures it out), Carlos D. Rodriguez, Noah Campbell, Je'Von Ward
• High-A: Hendry Mendez (no point smacking singles and drawing walks in Low-A again), Micah Bello, Arbert Cipion, Lamar Sparks, Terence Doston
• Low-A: Hedbert Perez (hope for a Micah Bello-April 2022 style breakout), Jace Avina, Luis Castillo, Eduarqui Fernandez, Oswal Leones, Reidy Mercado
• Extended Spring Training (possible call-up to Low-A before ACL season starts in June): Kaylan Nicasia, Luis Medina

Who has better ideas?

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

Having added Skye Bolt and Monte Harrison to the AAA outfield over the past 48 hours had me re-checking expected outfield MILB placements. Here's my current breakdown of 5-6 outfielders per level to start 2023, allowing for possible opt-outs, trades, injuries and releases:

• AAA: Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins, Skye Bolt, Monte Harrison, Tristen Lutz

Who has better ideas?

I hope the Brewers have the idea of starting Sal in the majors. They can always send him down if he's not hitting and save a year of service. There would be plenty of OF ABs with him, Mitchell, Taylor, and Yelich covering the 3 positions, with a few starts by Anderson in RF, and very few starts from Winker.

 

[damuelle]

Is anybody else hoping that we keep Darrien Miller back in High-A for the start of 2023? At his age and defensive level, I don’t see the point of pushing him to Biloxi yet. Here are my projected MILB Catcher placements:

• AAA: Payton Henry, Alex Jackson, Brian Navarreto
• AA: Brent Diaz (steady hand), Jason Lopez, Nick Kahle (I’ll never understand too-rapid promotion in 2021, then barely playing in 2022)
• High-A: Jeferson Quero (bar-none top catching prospect in system), Darrien Miller (just turning 22; let him keep developing and hitting), Alex Hall (done plenty in Australia to earn another year), Jose Sibrian (re-signed for 8th year in organization)
• Low-A: Matt Wood (injured in just his 2nd game last year), Tayden Hall (6’4”; was mainly a first baseman in college, but he played 35 innings at catcher in ACL), Satchell Norman (decent in 2022 small ACL sample; $125k sign-on bonus and 6 months older than Tayden Hall)
• Extended Spring Training (possible call-up to Low-A before ACL season starts in June): Jesus Garcia (spent most of 2022 in Low-A, but barely played), Jhonnys Cabrera (put up decent 2022 ACL stats in limited time)

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

Is anybody else hoping that we keep Darrien Miller back in High-A for the start of 2023? At his age and defensive level, I don’t see the point of pushing him to Biloxi yet. Here are my projected MILB Catcher placements:

• AAA: Payton Henry, Alex Jackson, Brian Navarreto
• AA: Brent Diaz (steady hand), Jason Lopez, Nick Kahle (I’ll never understand too-rapid promotion in 2021, then barely playing in 2022)
• High-A: Jeferson Quero (bar-none top catching prospect in system), Darrien Miller (just turning 22; let him keep developing and hitting), Alex Hall (done plenty in Australia to earn another year), Jose Sibrian (re-signed for 8th year in organization)
• Low-A: Matt Wood (injured in just his 2nd game last year), Tayden Hall (6’4”; was mainly a first baseman in college, but he played 35 innings at catcher in ACL), Satchell Norman (decent in 2022 small ACL sample; $125k sign-on bonus and 6 months older than Tayden Hall)
• Extended Spring Training (possible call-up to Low-A before ACL season starts in June): Jesus Garcia (spent most of 2022 in Low-A, but barely played), Jhonnys Cabrera (put up decent 2022 ACL stats in limited time)

I know the stats from last season look rough, but don't count Blayberg Diaz out from showing up in Carolina (although the catcher depth chart is obviously crowded). He had a 12.7% walk rate to a 16.4% K rate, threw out 40% of base stealers and is one season removed from posting a .770 OPS as an 18-year-old in Arizona. Was the quality of contact that much worse (his line drive rate did tank) or was there a substantial amount of bad luck involved? Regardless, there are at least a couple of signs that warrant optimism.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

On 2/3/2023 at 4:12 PM, damuelle said:

Is anybody else hoping that we keep Darrien Miller back in High-A for the start of 2023? At his age and defensive level, I don’t see the point of pushing him to Biloxi yet. Here are my projected MILB Catcher placements:

• AAA: Payton Henry, Alex Jackson, Brian Navarreto
• AA: Brent Diaz (steady hand), Jason Lopez, Nick Kahle (I’ll never understand too-rapid promotion in 2021, then barely playing in 2022)
• High-A: Jeferson Quero (bar-none top catching prospect in system), Darrien Miller (just turning 22; let him keep developing and hitting), Alex Hall (done plenty in Australia to earn another year), Jose Sibrian (re-signed for 8th year in organization)
• Low-A: Matt Wood (injured in just his 2nd game last year), Tayden Hall (6’4”; was mainly a first baseman in college, but he played 35 innings at catcher in ACL), Satchell Norman (decent in 2022 small ACL sample; $125k sign-on bonus and 6 months older than Tayden Hall)
• Extended Spring Training (possible call-up to Low-A before ACL season starts in June): Jesus Garcia (spent most of 2022 in Low-A, but barely played), Jhonnys Cabrera (put up decent 2022 ACL stats in limited time)

This is a good list.  I would put Darrien at AA.  He needs to work on his throwing obviously, but I don't see why he can't do that at AA.  His bat is ready for a promotion.  That would also give Quero more ABs in high A.  Tayden Hall seems like he is going to be a 1B/DH.  It would be great for him to get a few more tries at C but it seemed like the Brewers moved on (though still small sample).  I have him in A+ playing 1b.  I'd assume Blayberg will be back in Arizona and he deserves another shot.  I'm also excited to see Yannic Walther play.  This is the 18 year old german born C we signed late last year.  He was sent to DSL but I would imagine he would get a quick call up to Arizona if he does well.

[USCBrewFan]

On 11/24/2022 at 9:38 PM, CheeseheadInQC said:

I said I'd do pitching predictions, so here are some guesses on the rotations. A few notes: 1. I included six for each of the top three levels partially because the schedule sets up for it and partially because the sad truth is, pitching injuries are fairly common, especially at the lower levels. I have 10 for low-A because of tandems. 2. If I didn't list a player, including one at least mildly prominent example at AAA, I likely am guessing they move to the bullpen. Or I just had a memory lapse.

Based on the rosters right now, in no particular order:

AAA: Gasser, Small, Junk, Seminaris, Alexander, Boushley

AA: Cruz, C. Rodriguez, Jarvis, Knarr, Shook, Lazar

High-A: Henderson, Cornielle, Wagoner, Smith, Jimenez, Puello

Low-A: Misiorowski, Rudy, Woessner, Peterson, Aquino, Vallecillo, Segura, Herrera, B. Rodriguez, Gonzalez

Be interested to hear your take on the AA staff.  Looks like a good staff to me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, USCBrewFan said:

Be interested to hear your take on the AA staff.  Looks like a good staff to me.

Welcome to the site and yes, @CheeseheadInQC is very knowledgeable about the farm!

[CheeseheadInQC]

9 hours ago, USCBrewFan said:

Be interested to hear your take on the AA staff.  Looks like a good staff to me.

Thanks for the kind words @Brock Beauchamp. My analysis mostly comes down a a bizarre combination of microstats and broad system overviews given that I haven't seen more than YouTube clips on most of these guys (maybe now that I'm not working evenings for the first time in 17 years I might have to try to change that).

Really, for a system that isn't as pitching deep as it is in hitting, there are some really interesting names on all of the lists. I really like Rodriguez and Cruz and how they managed to adjust to the promotion quickly despite being young, at least experience wise, for their levels. Both Knarr and Seminaris (who after some of the recent signings I now think starts in AA) feel like guys who at least make the majors at some point. I'm not as high on Jarvis as some (leery a bit of guys who succeed after repeating a level but then don't carry the momentum over after getting promoted. I know his ERA, but that walk to strikeout rate at AA isn't where it needs to be), but I know others really like him.

There will be pressure on some of the guys at the back of the rotation, though, because there are likely to be guys in the high-A rotation who the Brewers wouldn't hesitate to give a fairly early bump if they show good results (Hernandez, Smith, Cornielle).