Article: Potential First Base Free Agent Targets: Jose Abreu and Josh Bell

[Outlander]

There are not quality third basemen available. I guess Justin Turner may fall into that category but he is declining offensively and defensively and has trouble staying on the field as well getting older. Abreu is more of a DH and the Brewers do need somebody there. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think there’s room for both Tellez and Abreu/Bell. This team could really use some right-handed pop in the middle of the order. Just swap out Hiura, whose reverse splits make him redundant alongside Tellez. 

True, there's conceivably room for Tellez and one of the other. The thing is, though, that Abreu and Bell are projected to be just as bad of defenders as Tellez at 1B, so we wouldn't be upgrading on defense. I am also someone who thinks we should move Yelich to DH semi-permanently, which a signing of one of those guys would prevent. IMO, catcher and the bullpen are more of a priority at this point. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think there’s room for both Tellez and Abreu/Bell. This team could really use some right-handed pop in the middle of the order. Just swap out Hiura, whose reverse splits make him redundant alongside Tellez. 

True, there's conceivably room for Tellez and one of the other. The thing is, though, that Abreu and Bell are projected to be just as bad of defenders as Tellez at 1B, so we wouldn't be upgrading on defense. I am also someone who thinks we should move Yelich to DH semi-permanently, which a signing of one of those guys would prevent. IMO, catcher and the bullpen are more of a priority at this point. 

[Hopper]

How many DH type guys can we afford to roster?

We all know that Yelich, if we are being honest, should be a full time DH.

Hiura, same.

Several claim that Rowdy's defense should land him at DH.

Some have been saying Wong should be playing at DH.

Now we want to sign another guy who ideally fits at DH in Bell/Abreu?

This roster is already frustrating, and we now have plans to muddy it up even more, and still not having a legit guy at 3B or C?

 

[Hopper]

How many DH type guys can we afford to roster?

We all know that Yelich, if we are being honest, should be a full time DH.

Hiura, same.

Several claim that Rowdy's defense should land him at DH.

Some have been saying Wong should be playing at DH.

Now we want to sign another guy who ideally fits at DH in Bell/Abreu?

This roster is already frustrating, and we now have plans to muddy it up even more, and still not having a legit guy at 3B or C?

 

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

True, there's conceivably room for Tellez and one of the other. The thing is, though, that Abreu and Bell are projected to be just as bad of defenders as Tellez at 1B, so we wouldn't be upgrading on defense. I am also someone who thinks we should move Yelich to DH semi-permanently, which a signing of one of those guys would prevent. IMO, catcher and the bullpen are more of a priority at this point. 

Couldn't agree more.  I am not in the least bit interested in signing someone to play DH.  That should go to Yelich which would open up another outfield spot for Frelick.   

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

True, there's conceivably room for Tellez and one of the other. The thing is, though, that Abreu and Bell are projected to be just as bad of defenders as Tellez at 1B, so we wouldn't be upgrading on defense. I am also someone who thinks we should move Yelich to DH semi-permanently, which a signing of one of those guys would prevent. IMO, catcher and the bullpen are more of a priority at this point. 

Couldn't agree more.  I am not in the least bit interested in signing someone to play DH.  That should go to Yelich which would open up another outfield spot for Frelick.   

[UpandIn]

14 hours ago, Lajitas said:

I'll put is so simply even you would understand.  Weimer, Abreau and some reliever would NOT be an upgrade over Renfroe, Tellez and Lauer.  Plus the Abreau variation would cost more money.

Yeah, you really didn't though. In your world, Renfroe is getting non-tendered either way. So...how does his loss factor in?

Lauer? It was laughable to call him a #3, right? So now it's a #4/5? I don't know what's NOT laughable to you. But a back of the rotation pitcher(per you) and Tellez vs Abreu.

This is a circular argument as you're the one who made the claim they absolutely HAD to get rid of those players in order to add ABREU...so it started with your faulty premise, then I pointed out IF they did trade those players, they'd get talent back for them...and it seemingly went over your head. 

[UpandIn]

14 hours ago, Lajitas said:

I'll put is so simply even you would understand.  Weimer, Abreau and some reliever would NOT be an upgrade over Renfroe, Tellez and Lauer.  Plus the Abreau variation would cost more money.

Yeah, you really didn't though. In your world, Renfroe is getting non-tendered either way. So...how does his loss factor in?

Lauer? It was laughable to call him a #3, right? So now it's a #4/5? I don't know what's NOT laughable to you. But a back of the rotation pitcher(per you) and Tellez vs Abreu.

This is a circular argument as you're the one who made the claim they absolutely HAD to get rid of those players in order to add ABREU...so it started with your faulty premise, then I pointed out IF they did trade those players, they'd get talent back for them...and it seemingly went over your head. 

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Hopper said:

All this talk of replacing Rowdy with guys who "might" be better, and we are still planning on going into the season with Urias at 3B?  Why in the hell does this organization continue to ignore 3B?  Urias isn't the guy, he just isn't.

If we are going to spend $ on Abreu or Bell, I think it's foolish when we still do not have a 3B on the roster.

None of us here are actually making any of these calls, so I don't know if "we" are planning on going into the season with Urias at 3B, but the top 3B on the FA market...is Jace Peterson. 

Who is the 3B we should be talking about?

You want a catcher...cool. I'd gladly take Contreras as a FA. I don't think that's going to happen.

So no 3B, SS is set. Wong or maybe Segura are the top 2B. 
Catcher is a possible position to upgrade.

OR a 1B who just happens to fit into the lineup about as perfectly as possible. A guy who hits for a high average and crushes left handed pitching?

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Hopper said:

All this talk of replacing Rowdy with guys who "might" be better, and we are still planning on going into the season with Urias at 3B?  Why in the hell does this organization continue to ignore 3B?  Urias isn't the guy, he just isn't.

If we are going to spend $ on Abreu or Bell, I think it's foolish when we still do not have a 3B on the roster.

None of us here are actually making any of these calls, so I don't know if "we" are planning on going into the season with Urias at 3B, but the top 3B on the FA market...is Jace Peterson. 

Who is the 3B we should be talking about?

You want a catcher...cool. I'd gladly take Contreras as a FA. I don't think that's going to happen.

So no 3B, SS is set. Wong or maybe Segura are the top 2B. 
Catcher is a possible position to upgrade.

OR a 1B who just happens to fit into the lineup about as perfectly as possible. A guy who hits for a high average and crushes left handed pitching?

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

True, there's conceivably room for Tellez and one of the other. The thing is, though, that Abreu and Bell are projected to be just as bad of defenders as Tellez at 1B, so we wouldn't be upgrading on defense. I am also someone who thinks we should move Yelich to DH semi-permanently, which a signing of one of those guys would prevent. IMO, catcher and the bullpen are more of a priority at this point. 

That's fair. I think the market on Abreu and/or Bell might end up being pretty soft, which is why I've mentioned them multiple times. I think at least one of them might end up being an under-market signing late in the offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

True, there's conceivably room for Tellez and one of the other. The thing is, though, that Abreu and Bell are projected to be just as bad of defenders as Tellez at 1B, so we wouldn't be upgrading on defense. I am also someone who thinks we should move Yelich to DH semi-permanently, which a signing of one of those guys would prevent. IMO, catcher and the bullpen are more of a priority at this point. 

That's fair. I think the market on Abreu and/or Bell might end up being pretty soft, which is why I've mentioned them multiple times. I think at least one of them might end up being an under-market signing late in the offseason.

[umphrey]

Josh Bell has been very inconsistent in his career. I don't think Milwaukee is the place for him, We get the worst of all the hitters that come here. Sign me up for Abreu though. I think that guy is going to play until he's 40, doesn't need any coaching whatsoever and I don't even care if the power comes back if he hits .300 and takes walks. 

[umphrey]

Josh Bell has been very inconsistent in his career. I don't think Milwaukee is the place for him, We get the worst of all the hitters that come here. Sign me up for Abreu though. I think that guy is going to play until he's 40, doesn't need any coaching whatsoever and I don't even care if the power comes back if he hits .300 and takes walks. 

[Lajitas]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Yeah, you really didn't though. In your world, Renfroe is getting non-tendered either way. So...how does his loss factor in?

Lauer? It was laughable to call him a #3, right? So now it's a #4/5? I don't know what's NOT laughable to you. But a back of the rotation pitcher(per you) and Tellez vs Abreu.

This is a circular argument as you're the one who made the claim they absolutely HAD to get rid of those players in order to add ABREU...so it started with your faulty premise, then I pointed out IF they did trade those players, they'd get talent back for them...and it seemingly went over your head. 

If Renfroe is a prominent non-tender candidate, they aren't getting much in talent back for him.  A direct quote from your first response to me: "It's not like you'd non-tender them."

Lauer IS a back of the rotation, innings eater.  Nothing more.  He's not bringing back a "valuable high leverage reliever" (again, quoting you).  And even if he did, that reliever's salary would be as much, if not more than Lauer's.

They WOULD have to get rid of a bunch of salary to sign Abreu.  You are probably the only one on the planet that thinks, "hey, they'll just add $20 M to the payroll to sign Abreu."  I picked Renfroe, Tellez and Lauer/Houser because their combined salaries are about $20 M Abreu will get.  It could be Renfroe and Adames.  That's about $20 M, also. 

[Lajitas]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Yeah, you really didn't though. In your world, Renfroe is getting non-tendered either way. So...how does his loss factor in?

Lauer? It was laughable to call him a #3, right? So now it's a #4/5? I don't know what's NOT laughable to you. But a back of the rotation pitcher(per you) and Tellez vs Abreu.

This is a circular argument as you're the one who made the claim they absolutely HAD to get rid of those players in order to add ABREU...so it started with your faulty premise, then I pointed out IF they did trade those players, they'd get talent back for them...and it seemingly went over your head. 

If Renfroe is a prominent non-tender candidate, they aren't getting much in talent back for him.  A direct quote from your first response to me: "It's not like you'd non-tender them."

Lauer IS a back of the rotation, innings eater.  Nothing more.  He's not bringing back a "valuable high leverage reliever" (again, quoting you).  And even if he did, that reliever's salary would be as much, if not more than Lauer's.

They WOULD have to get rid of a bunch of salary to sign Abreu.  You are probably the only one on the planet that thinks, "hey, they'll just add $20 M to the payroll to sign Abreu."  I picked Renfroe, Tellez and Lauer/Houser because their combined salaries are about $20 M Abreu will get.  It could be Renfroe and Adames.  That's about $20 M, also. 

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, Lajitas said:

If Renfroe is a prominent non-tender candidate, they aren't getting much in talent back for him.  A direct quote from your first response to me: "It's not like you'd non-tender them."

Right. I don't believe they will non-tender him. You do. To recap this discussion, YOU listed the players we'd be "losing," I then said we wouldn't be losing them for nothing IF we did.

Just...a hypothetical, from a Twins message board;

Quote

True, but his Arb cost, low defensive value and single year of control won’t make him super expensive. Give up a decent prospect or 2 and it should be enough, my ideal trade was Balazovic and Megill for him.

So...basically, a AA reliever and a MLB reliever with a upper 90s fastball. 

Again, I don't see the Brewers dumping their best hitter from last year so they can go with 3 rookies and Yelich in the OF...

6 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Lauer IS a back of the rotation, innings eater.  Nothing more.  He's not bringing back a "valuable high leverage reliever" (again, quoting you).  And even if he did, that reliever's salary would be as much, if not more than Lauer's.

3.47 ERA and an ERA+ of 107 and 130 the past two years(with nearly a quarter of his Earned runs coming in two starts inflated even those numbers this year). That seems like a BIT more than a "back of the rotation, innings eater. Nothing more." 

That's definitely something...more than that. Again, you came up with the scenario in which the only way the Brewers could afford Abreu was this cataclysmic event in which we had to rid ourself of these players who...apparently don't have a whole lot of value in your opinion.

6 hours ago, Lajitas said:

They WOULD have to get rid of a bunch of salary to sign Abreu.  You are probably the only one on the planet that thinks, "hey, they'll just add $20 M to the payroll to sign Abreu."  I picked Renfroe, Tellez and Lauer/Houser because their combined salaries are about $20 M Abreu will get.  It could be Renfroe and Adames.  That's about $20 M, also. 

Am I the only one who thinks that? Doesn't seem like I'm "the only person on the planet" who thinks the Brewers COULD sign Abreu given there is additional TV revenue coming in this year that more than makes up for it. OR they could still deal Wong as I've suggested since Turang is ready in AAA.

I guess I'll just have to take your word for it that I'm the ONLY one in the world in a year with increasing revenue and Mark Attanasio saying they'll be "very active" this off-season while talking about building around the core of this team!

 

Now, lets circle back;

Quote

To get there, that means Renfroe, Tellez and one of Houser/Lauer would have to go.  Is either truly enough of an upgrade over Rowdy?

 I guess if you don't think they should even bother to tender Renfroe and that Lauer is "Nothing more" than an innings eater, the answer would then be pretty obvious. YEAH. Abreu would most definitely be worth the upgrade. In particular, his ability to hit left handed pitching and the 137 WRC+.

Feels like you kinda answered your own question here! Just needed to work it out I guess?

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, Lajitas said:

If Renfroe is a prominent non-tender candidate, they aren't getting much in talent back for him.  A direct quote from your first response to me: "It's not like you'd non-tender them."

Right. I don't believe they will non-tender him. You do. To recap this discussion, YOU listed the players we'd be "losing," I then said we wouldn't be losing them for nothing IF we did.

Just...a hypothetical, from a Twins message board;

Quote

True, but his Arb cost, low defensive value and single year of control won’t make him super expensive. Give up a decent prospect or 2 and it should be enough, my ideal trade was Balazovic and Megill for him.

So...basically, a AA reliever and a MLB reliever with a upper 90s fastball. 

Again, I don't see the Brewers dumping their best hitter from last year so they can go with 3 rookies and Yelich in the OF...

6 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Lauer IS a back of the rotation, innings eater.  Nothing more.  He's not bringing back a "valuable high leverage reliever" (again, quoting you).  And even if he did, that reliever's salary would be as much, if not more than Lauer's.

3.47 ERA and an ERA+ of 107 and 130 the past two years(with nearly a quarter of his Earned runs coming in two starts inflated even those numbers this year). That seems like a BIT more than a "back of the rotation, innings eater. Nothing more." 

That's definitely something...more than that. Again, you came up with the scenario in which the only way the Brewers could afford Abreu was this cataclysmic event in which we had to rid ourself of these players who...apparently don't have a whole lot of value in your opinion.

6 hours ago, Lajitas said:

They WOULD have to get rid of a bunch of salary to sign Abreu.  You are probably the only one on the planet that thinks, "hey, they'll just add $20 M to the payroll to sign Abreu."  I picked Renfroe, Tellez and Lauer/Houser because their combined salaries are about $20 M Abreu will get.  It could be Renfroe and Adames.  That's about $20 M, also. 

Am I the only one who thinks that? Doesn't seem like I'm "the only person on the planet" who thinks the Brewers COULD sign Abreu given there is additional TV revenue coming in this year that more than makes up for it. OR they could still deal Wong as I've suggested since Turang is ready in AAA.

I guess I'll just have to take your word for it that I'm the ONLY one in the world in a year with increasing revenue and Mark Attanasio saying they'll be "very active" this off-season while talking about building around the core of this team!

 

Now, lets circle back;

Quote

To get there, that means Renfroe, Tellez and one of Houser/Lauer would have to go.  Is either truly enough of an upgrade over Rowdy?

 I guess if you don't think they should even bother to tender Renfroe and that Lauer is "Nothing more" than an innings eater, the answer would then be pretty obvious. YEAH. Abreu would most definitely be worth the upgrade. In particular, his ability to hit left handed pitching and the 137 WRC+.

Feels like you kinda answered your own question here! Just needed to work it out I guess?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

15 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Lauer IS a back of the rotation, innings eater.  Nothing more.  He's not bringing back a "valuable high leverage reliever" (again, quoting you).  And even if he did, that reliever's salary would be as much, if not more than Lauer's.

Actual statistics beg to differ. I mean, yeah, if Lauer were pitching for the Dodgers, he'd probably be their 4th starter. But that isn't the case typically. I'd venture to say that Lauer's numbers stack up favorably against most team's #3 guy, if not their #2. 20 years ago Eric Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

15 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Lauer IS a back of the rotation, innings eater.  Nothing more.  He's not bringing back a "valuable high leverage reliever" (again, quoting you).  And even if he did, that reliever's salary would be as much, if not more than Lauer's.

Actual statistics beg to differ. I mean, yeah, if Lauer were pitching for the Dodgers, he'd probably be their 4th starter. But that isn't the case typically. I'd venture to say that Lauer's numbers stack up favorably against most team's #3 guy, if not their #2. 20 years ago Eric Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  

[Lajitas]

35 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Actual statistics beg to differ. I mean, yeah, if Lauer were pitching for the Dodgers, he'd probably be their 4th starter. But that isn't the case typically. I'd venture to say that Lauer's numbers stack up favorably against most team's #3 guy, if not their #2. 20 years ago Eric Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  

"Most teams #3"  Yeah, non-contending teams.  And in 2002, Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  Ace on a team that loses over 100 games.

Any team that looks at Lauer as their #3 isn't a team looking to make the playoffs.

 

[Lajitas]

35 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Actual statistics beg to differ. I mean, yeah, if Lauer were pitching for the Dodgers, he'd probably be their 4th starter. But that isn't the case typically. I'd venture to say that Lauer's numbers stack up favorably against most team's #3 guy, if not their #2. 20 years ago Eric Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  

"Most teams #3"  Yeah, non-contending teams.  And in 2002, Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  Ace on a team that loses over 100 games.

Any team that looks at Lauer as their #3 isn't a team looking to make the playoffs.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

20 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

"Most teams #3"  Yeah, non-contending teams.  And in 2002, Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  Ace on a team that loses over 100 games.

Any team that looks at Lauer as their #3 isn't a team looking to make the playoffs.

 

Most teams are non contenders.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

20 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

"Most teams #3"  Yeah, non-contending teams.  And in 2002, Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  Ace on a team that loses over 100 games.

Any team that looks at Lauer as their #3 isn't a team looking to make the playoffs.

 

Most teams are non contenders.