Brewers pick up Wong's option.

[Brewcrew82]

52 minutes ago, monty57 said:

It will be interesting to see what they do with Turang. He's a natural SS, so he's heir apparent when Adames is gone, which will probably be after the '23 season or at next year's trade deadline if they're out of it.

With that in mind, the team should only be concerned with what's best for his development, and how they can maximize his value to the team. Therefore, if he doesn't get a starting MLB job, I'd probably send Turang to AAA so he gets everyday playing time, but I think the team's m.o. will lead to them using him as a utility guy.

No one knows for sure if he'd develop better as a MLB utility guy or as an everyday guy at AAA, but I hate putting players in a role they're not accustomed to, and I hate using up a year of service time for a quality prospect in a bench role.

But does it best serve the team and the player to just hand him a starting spot without any previous time in the Majors? In Peterson's utility role, he'll still get regular bats, but will be able to ease in more to the majors. 

[monty57]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

But does it best serve the team and the player to just hand him a starting spot without any previous time in the Majors? In Peterson's utility role, he'll still get regular bats, but will be able to ease in more to the majors. 

I don't know. Some players hit the ground running, and some do not. But there's also no certainty that guys with some experience will do well, hence the "sophomore slump" and free agent signings that don't pan out. It's entirely possible that sporadic playing time while getting bounced from position to position could set him back. 

That's why I included the final paragraph: "No one knows for sure if he'd develop better as a MLB utility guy or as an everyday guy at AAA, but I hate putting players in a role they're not accustomed to, and I hate using up a year of service time for a quality prospect in a bench role."

He is the top infield prospect the Brewers have, so "just hand him a starting spot" isn't really accurate. He's proven himself in the minors, and he's earned a promotion. If they don't have an open starting spot, then I would prefer they keep him down until they do. That keeps him playing everyday, which would seem to be the best way for him to develop, and it would probably give the Brewers an extra year's service time rather than using up a year as a part-time player.

Burnes is a pitcher, so it may not be apples to apples, but I'd like to have the 2018-19 years of service time back. We got 77 innings of -0.2 WAR in two years of using him as a reliver and bouncing him around, when I'd prefer to have two years of him pitching like he is now. The question: "Is he only this good because we bounced him around in '18 and '19, or would he still be this good and we just wasted two very valuable years of service time?"

Like I said earlier, the Brewers' m.o. would be to bring Turang up as a utility guy next year. It's just probably not what I would do.

[Oxy]

Meh.  The BEST case scenario here is that we get something back in a trade or Wong bounces back and merely fulfills his value. The downside is a crash and burn year where he is old and ineffective or hurt, etc--and frankly that seems more likely to me. I'd rather have used Wong's salary+McCutcheon's salary to actually get one above average player rather than spending $8-12M each for guys who neither move the needle nor even really have any chance at breaking out and outperforming their contract. If Wong were the last piece of an already loaded lineup, sure, then you take his defense and plug the last hole.  We need to roll the dice a bit and try for something bigger/riskier with higher upside.

[Brewcrew82]

32 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I don't know. Some players hit the ground running, and some do not. But there's also no certainty that guys with some experience will do well, hence the "sophomore slump" and free agent signings that don't pan out. It's entirely possible that sporadic playing time while getting bounced from position to position could set him back. 

That's why I included the final paragraph: "No one knows for sure if he'd develop better as a MLB utility guy or as an everyday guy at AAA, but I hate putting players in a role they're not accustomed to, and I hate using up a year of service time for a quality prospect in a bench role."

He is the top infield prospect the Brewers have, so "just hand him a starting spot" isn't really accurate. He's proven himself in the minors, and he's earned a promotion. If they don't have an open starting spot, then I would prefer they keep him down until they do. That keeps him playing everyday, which would seem to be the best way for him to develop, and it would probably give the Brewers an extra year's service time rather than using up a year as a part-time player.

Burnes is a pitcher, so it may not be apples to apples, but I'd like to have the 2018-19 years of service time back. We got 77 innings of -0.2 WAR in two years of using him as a reliver and bouncing him around, when I'd prefer to have two years of him pitching like he is now. The question: "Is he only this good because we bounced him around in '18 and '19, or would he still be this good and we just wasted two very valuable years of service time?"

Like I said earlier, the Brewers' m.o. would be to bring Turang up as a utility guy next year. It's just probably not what I would do.

We got to within one game of the World Series in part because of Burnes' contributions in relief in 2018. And then, without the failure that was his 2019 season, Burnes would never have reworked his arsenal, particularly the cutter, which has turned him into one of the game's very best pitchers. So, not sure that logic entirely works out. 

These guys aren't machines. Not that often is top prospect going to come up and "hit the ground running", as you say. There's a developmental process that can only occur in the majors, and the Brewers seemingly recognize that. Turang has been in AAA for a year and a half now. There's nothing left for him to do there. In Jace Peterson's role, he would get regular at-bats, especially with Wong likely sitting against LHP, without the immediate pressure of having to hold down a starting spot and produce. It's the optimal situation, if you ask me, and it certainly wouldn't be a "waste" of his service time.

[LouisEly]

22 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Mid-season, I was sure Wong wouldn't have gotten the the option picked up, but he looked completely different the last couple months. 

Good point - the second half of last season he had a .862 OPS and wRC+ of 141.

And I think the sitting him vs LHP is a bit overblown as he had a 111 wRC+ against LHP in 2021.

[brewmann04]

I think they will end of moving Wong at somepoint

[Brewcrew82]

37 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Good point - the second half of last season he had a .862 OPS and wRC+ of 141.

And I think the sitting him vs LHP is a bit overblown as he had a 111 wRC+ against LHP in 2021.

It's not that overblown when Counsell had him sitting against a left-handed starter almost every time we faced one in the latter part of the season....

[Outlander]

Right, not a coincidence his numbers improved when he no longer had at bats against lhp to bring his overall no numbers down.

[Devinep]

Even if Wong is traded, it wouldn’t make sense to give Turang the starting 2B spot.  Why have him for all of 2022-28 when you could leave him down for less than a month then gain another year of control. Plus there is more organizational depth with Wong (or another big league infielder) and Turang rather than just Turang. 

[Redd Vencher]

2 hours ago, Devinep said:

Even if Wong is traded, it wouldn’t make sense to give Turang the starting 2B spot.  Why have him for all of 2022-28 when you could leave him down for less than a month then gain another year of control. Plus there is more organizational depth with Wong (or another big league infielder) and Turang rather than just Turang. 

There's new draft pick compensation for not doing that if the prospect wins ROY and eligible for more with a top 3 finish in MVP or Cy Young during his pre arb seasons. If he's ready to go, you break camp with him to see if he performs. If he struggles, you can get that extra year back by demoting him for a few weeks.

[Devinep]

7 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

There's new draft pick compensation for not doing that if the prospect wins ROY and eligible for more with a top 3 finish in MVP or Cy Young during his pre arb seasons. If he's ready to go, you break camp with him to see if he performs. If he struggles, you can get that extra year back by demoting him for a few weeks.

A couple issues with that: Turang is not likely to be a ROY or MVP candidate so that incentive wouldn’t likely be enticing. And you are correct that he could be sent down if he struggles, but there isn’t going to be any decent infielder who would want to sign when Turang is going to be the starter. Better to have Wong (or some other starter-worthy player) be the big leaguer with Turang being the minor league reinforcement in a few weeks rather than Turang be the big league starter and some Pablo Reyes-type be the minor league reinforcement. 

[Jopal78]

20 hours ago, monty57 said:

He is the top infield prospect the Brewers have, so "just hand him a starting spot" isn't really accurate. He's proven himself in the minors, and he's earned a promotion. 

 

But has he really, or is this more of a situation where the cupboard is relatively bare, and he's a former first round pick who has reached AAA?

For what its worth Orlando Arcia had better numbers in AAA in more games and plate appearances.  It doesn't seem to me Turang is one of those "can't miss" prospects like Churio, or Fielder, Braun etc., so  I don't get why he wouldn't have to force their hand onto the 26 man in the first place... like Trent Grisham in '19 and Ronnie Belliard in '98 etc. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

But has he really, or is this more of a situation where the cupboard is relatively bare, and he's a former first round pick who has reached AAA?

For what its worth Orlando Arcia had better numbers in AAA in more games and plate appearances.  It doesn't seem to me Turang is one of those "can't miss" prospects like Churio, or Fielder, Braun etc., so  I don't get why he wouldn't have to force their hand onto the 26 man in the first place... like Trent Grisham in '19 and Ronnie Belliard in '98 etc. 

This is really inaccurate. Turang has played in 175 AAA games and has 779 AAA PAs, compared to Arcia before his 2016 call up, when he had played in 100 AAA games and had 440 PAs. And Turang's wRC+ in AAA is 105, whereas Arcia's was 91....Even if you include when Arcia was briefly demoted in 2018, Turang still has more games played and at-bats. 

He may not be a Chourio or a Braun, but his performance this year, particularly with his increased power output, definitely earned him an opportunity at the major league level. Plus, the team already has to put him on the 40 man this offseason. 

[Redd Vencher]

2 hours ago, Devinep said:

A couple issues with that: Turang is not likely to be a ROY or MVP candidate so that incentive wouldn’t likely be enticing. And you are correct that he could be sent down if he struggles, but there isn’t going to be any decent infielder who would want to sign when Turang is going to be the starter. Better to have Wong (or some other starter-worthy player) be the big leaguer with Turang being the minor league reinforcement in a few weeks rather than Turang be the big league starter and some Pablo Reyes-type be the minor league reinforcement. 

I would agree, but it gives them another chance at a pick if the team thinks he's ready to play in the majors.. He doesn't have to be the starter for this. Jace Peterson had 300+ PA the last 2 seasons, and may have had 400 this year without the month missed to injury. It's a role he can be put in much cheaper than what it would cost to hang on to Peterson, and would be one area they could trim some payroll.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

He may not be a Chourio or a Braun, but his performance this year, particularly with his increased power output, definitely earned him an opportunity at the major league level. Plus, the team already has to put him on the 40 man this offseason. 

But why? Aren't his numbers overall kind of mediocre, and that is against AAA pitching where there aren't any Kershaws, Sherzers, Verlanders, etc. .286/.360/.412

[monty57]

46 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

But why? Aren't his numbers overall kind of mediocre, and that is against AAA pitching where there aren't any Kershaws, Sherzers, Verlanders, etc. .286/.360/.412

He had a 108 wRC+ with a .360 OBP (.381 in 2021) while playing "defense first" positions.

My earlier "he's earned a position" comment doesn't mean the Brewers should rush to trade Adames to make room for Turang.  I'm not even saying that he needs to be up to start the season. Rather, I'm saying that he's a good baseball player who should be a starter when he arrives. 

He's not someone who should sit the bench with sporadic playing time. Do that to guys like Reyes, not guys who look to be key pieces of the team for the next six years.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

But why? Aren't his numbers overall kind of mediocre, and that is against AAA pitching where there aren't any Kershaws, Sherzers, Verlanders, etc. .286/.360/.412

First of all, Turang was 22 this season, which was 4.3 years younger than the AAA average. That has to be taken into consideration when evaluating his stats. He was more than a year younger than Garrett Mitchell, for comparison. Which makes that .286/.360/.412/772 slashline and 108 wRC+ look pretty nice, to go along with stellar contact numbers. 

Second of all, here was his slashline post July 1, when his power output really started to take-off following some swing-adjustments: .296/.395/.484/879. That's elite for a SS. 

Finally, Turang is already a big plus in all other aspects of the game, particularly with respect to his fielding and baserunning. That adds significantly to his overall value. 

Within this context, he's definitely earned an opportunity and there's nothing left for him to prove in AAA. The one "black mark" on his profile was his power, but his 2nd half went a long way towards easing those concerns. He's not "can't miss", but he's a top 100 prospect per most sites ATM. 

[Brewcrew82]

21 minutes ago, monty57 said:

He had a 108 wRC+ with a .360 OBP (.381 in 2021) while playing "defense first" positions.

My earlier "he's earned a position" comment doesn't mean the Brewers should rush to trade Adames to make room for Turang.  I'm not even saying that he needs to be up to start the season. Rather, I'm saying that he's a good baseball player who should be a starter when he arrives. 

He's not someone who should sit the bench with sporadic playing time. Do that to guys like Reyes, not guys who look to be key pieces of the team for the next six years.

Jace Peterson did not "sit the bench with sporadic playing time". He received at-bats on a level roughly equivalent to a starter. So, if Turang does take over Jace Peterson's spot on the roster, he'll still get regular at-bats, but without the pressure of being an immediate starter. Why is that not optimal to you? Would you rather have given him the 2B spot from the start, only to have him struggle initially (as most prospects do), lose his confidence and be sent back down to AAA, while we're left scrambling on the major league roster?  It's no different from how Garrett Mitchell was incorporated onto the team this year by splitting time with Tyrone Taylor in the OF. 

[Devinep]

I agree that Turang should get consistent playing time when he gets to the big leagues, but just sign some johan Camargo-type and leave Turang in AAA for just a few weeks to get another whole year of control out of him 

[Jopal78]

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

First of all, Turang was 22 this season, which was 4.3 years younger than the AAA average. That has to be taken into consideration when evaluating his stats. He was more than a year younger than Garrett Mitchell, for comparison. Which makes that .286/.360/.412/772 slashline and 108 wRC+ look pretty nice, to go along with stellar contact numbers. 

Second of all, here was his slashline post July 1, when his power output really started to take-off following some swing-adjustments: .296/.395/.484/879. That's elite for a SS. 

Finally, Turang is already a big plus in all other aspects of the game, particularly with respect to his fielding and baserunning. That adds significantly to his overall value. 

Within this context, he's definitely earned an opportunity and there's nothing left for him to prove in AAA. The one "black mark" on his profile was his power, but his 2nd half went a long way towards easing those concerns. He's not "can't miss", but he's a top 100 prospect per most sites ATM. 

I guess my point is: Turang isn’t Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Volpe, where they’re planning a team with them in it long term. With Turang most “experts” write he has average offensive tools with potential for more and is a speed, defense player. 
 

Why clear the decks for a player of that caliber, until he takes his game to another level and forces their hand? Realistically what does a .AAA 760 OPS shortstop project to  in the big leagues: .720-.730?

Seems like a case of the Brewers not having many blue chippers and he’s a known name, former first rounder in AAA hence the hype.

[UpandIn]

14 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

But has he really, or is this more of a situation where the cupboard is relatively bare, and he's a former first round pick who has reached AAA?

For what its worth Orlando Arcia had better numbers in AAA in more games and plate appearances.  It doesn't seem to me Turang is one of those "can't miss" prospects like Churio, or Fielder, Braun etc., so  I don't get why he wouldn't have to force their hand onto the 26 man in the first place... like Trent Grisham in '19 and Ronnie Belliard in '98 etc. 

Yes, he really has. 

And...yes, it's ALSO a situation where the cupboard is relatively bare and he's a former first round pick who has reached AAA. 

BOTH of those statements are true. 

I also don't understand why he'd have to hit like Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun...or Jackson Chourio who feels like a "one of these is not like the other," given he's not yet produced above HiA while Turang has performed well at AAA. 

[UpandIn]

10 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Jace Peterson did not "sit the bench with sporadic playing time". He received at-bats on a level roughly equivalent to a starter. So, if Turang does take over Jace Peterson's spot on the roster, he'll still get regular at-bats, but without the pressure of being an immediate starter. Why is that not optimal to you? Would you rather have given him the 2B spot from the start, only to have him struggle initially (as most prospects do), lose his confidence and be sent back down to AAA, while we're left scrambling on the major league roster?  It's no different from how Garrett Mitchell was incorporated onto the team this year by splitting time with Tyrone Taylor in the OF. 

Not really though. He averaged ~2.9 PAs per game. Too many games he came in for a late pinch hitting appearance, or as a late defensive replacement. 

That's great for Peterson. He filled that role very well(late inning PHer) with his ability to draw walks. That's less than ideal for a 23 year old SS who needs regular ABs. 

The Mariners, Phillies and ChW are all in need of 2B. There were very few viable options in free agency. Jean Segura and a 17M dollar option. Toronto needs a 2B(and they were actually tracking Wong's option on one site I stumbled onto). 

I think the Brewers end up dealing Wong. I think they viewed him as an asset and rather than pay 2M for him to go away, they may be able to get a viable BP piece, save 10M, put that money toward someone like Jose Abreu and improve their pen. Or not, that's just been my position for a while. I started a thread after his 3HR game and asked that very question. If he finished the year strong, could they pick up his option and then trade him. 

 

A lot of it will have to do with where they're going in terms of payroll. I think ~150 is reasonable(though maybe 140 with some room built in if they're truly going to go for it this year). Maybe they start the year with Wong at 2B and keep Turang down to ensure he's not a super 2, see how he produces. I think with the way he finished and the power coming along....not that I actually need to see much more, just see how it plays out, what type of offers you get. 

[Jopal78]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Yes, he really has. 

And...yes, it's ALSO a situation where the cupboard is relatively bare and he's a former first round pick who has reached AAA. 

BOTH of those statements are true. 

I also don't understand why he'd have to hit like Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun...or Jackson Chourio who feels like a "one of these is not like the other," given he's not yet produced above HiA while Turang has performed well at AAA. 

I didnt write that he has to hit like those players, rather those guys we’re “can’t miss prospects” which Turang certainly is not.
 

But my point is: Turnag hasn’t necessarily dominated AAA pitching where there are no Verlanders, Kershaws etc. As the posters here point out he apparently did show some developing power in late summer ‘22, therefore why bring him up at all until he shows he can consistently take apart AAA pitching and is fortified to go against the best every night in the major leagues?

[Jopal78]

6 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Not really though. He averaged ~2.9 PAs per game. Too many games he came in for a late pinch hitting appearance, or as a late defensive replacement. 

That's great for Peterson. He filled that role very well(late inning PHer) with his ability to draw walks. That's less than ideal for a 23 year old SS who needs regular ABs. 

The Mariners, Phillies and ChW are all in need of 2B. There were very few viable options in free agency. Jean Segura and a 17M dollar option. Toronto needs a 2B(and they were actually tracking Wong's option on one site I stumbled onto). 

I think the Brewers end up dealing Wong. I think they viewed him as an asset and rather than pay 2M for him to go away, they may be able to get a viable BP piece, save 10M, put that money toward someone like Jose Abreu and improve their pen. Or not, that's just been my position for a while. I started a thread after his 3HR game and asked that very question. If he finished the year strong, could they pick up his option and then trade him. 

 

A lot of it will have to do with where they're going in terms of payroll. I think ~150 is reasonable(though maybe 140 with some room built in if they're truly going to go for it this year). Maybe they start the year with Wong at 2B and keep Turang down to ensure he's not a super 2, see how he produces. I think with the way he finished and the power coming along....not that I actually need to see much more, just see how it plays out, what type of offers you get. 

Reportedly they shopped Wong at the deadline this year. Obviously they  didn’t find anything to their liking, because he wasn’t traded. 
 

I don’t think his trade market will suddenly change in a few months. 

Rather, 8 million dollars is bargain rate for a starting caliber player in the major leagues today, and Wong has a long track record as a quality player. 

His value comes from being a quality starter on a cut rate contract. Thus, the Brewers could move him as part of a larger deal because of that value, I just don’t see the Brewers picking up his option to actively shop him. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not worried about Turang getting PAs.

First, half the roster will be injured by Opening Day. That's just how baseball works nowadays.

Second, Adames and Urias are righties, Wong and Turang are lefties. There are plenty of infield plate appearances to go around in that arrangement.