Would you prefer the Brewers trade Woodruff, Burnes and Adames or keep them?

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 11/8/2022 at 7:11 PM, Redd Vencher said:

Baez Career 104 wRC+ when he hit FA with a peak of 131 (2018), 3 total times north of 110 and 5 times south of 100.

Story Career 111 wRC+ when he hit FA with a peak of 128 (2018), 4 times north of 110, and 2 below 100,

Adames Career 111 wRC+ peak of 126 (2020) with 3 total times north of 110 (2022 just missed at 109), and 1 time below 100 (2019 just missed at 99)

I think FA $/WAR is around $8 M, and even at $6 M/WAR you're looking 3 WAR for the money. There's certainly risk like any contract, but I'm fine with the risk at that level. If he'd sign cheaper, I'd certainly prefer that.

That Baez contract terrified me for the same reason a long-term Adames contract terrifies me: guys with terrible discipline, a middling strikeout rate, and good contact skills tend to age really badly.

When Baez signed that deal, I called him a rich man's Eddie Rosario and given the first year of Baez in Detroit, that turned out to be an overly generous comparison point.

I'm not against an Adames extension if done immediately but I'd rather pay more money for fewer years, as I have very little faith in Willy aging well into his 30s.

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That Baez contract terrified me for the same reason a long-term Adames contract terrifies me: guys with terrible discipline, a middling strikeout rate, and good contact skills tend to age really badly.

When Baez signed that deal, I called him a rich man's Eddie Rosario and given the first year of Baez in Detroit, that turned out to be an overly generous comparison point.

I'm not against an Adames extension if done immediately but I'd rather pay more money for fewer years, as I have very little faith in Willy aging well into his 30s.

Willy Adames doesn't have terrible discipline, though. League average O-Swing% was 32.6% in 2022 while Adames was at 33.7% with a career 30.4%. Baez was 48.7% tops in baseball with a career 44.8% chase rate. If we want to look at a comparison for another guy we can look at Ryan Braun who's career O-Swing% was 32.9%. This perception that Adames has no plate discipline is weird.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Willy Adames doesn't have terrible discipline, though. League average O-Swing% was 32.6% in 2022 while Adames was at 33.7% with a career 30.4%. Baez was 48.7% tops in baseball with a career 44.8% chase rate. If we want to look at a comparison for another guy we can look at Ryan Braun who's career O-Swing% was 32.9%. This perception that Adames has no plate discipline is weird.

And that's fair, I should have specified that I'm leery of signing Adames into his 30s while I was absolutely dead-set against my teams signing Baez last offseason. They're not the same player but they share some traits I'm not fond of locking down long-term.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

And that's fair, I should have specified that I'm leery of signing Adames into his 30s while I was absolutely dead-set against my teams signing Baez last offseason. They're not the same player but they share some traits I'm not fond of locking down long-term.

Yeah, in terms of comfortability with signing long-term, it would go Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames, for me. I would like to see Adames put a full season together of elite offense and elite defense, first. 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, in terms of comfortability with signing long-term, it would go Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames, for me. I would like to see Adames put a full season together of elite offense and elite defense, first. 

Then you might as well forget an Adames extension completely, since an elite offensive and defensive year would price him out of our reach.

Extending Burnes is a pipe-dream. An extension for Woody pays him for past-prime years.

I think the safest and most realistic extension would be Adames for two reasons. Age & the fact he’s a position player. 

Even an 8 year extension gets us the majority of his years in-prime. But obviously we should try to do less years. I’d love to see a 4 year deal at $85M. Go with more up-front, 15-20-25-25. 

Adames would still be young enough to get a large contract post-Brewers and we’d very likely get his best seasons.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Then you might as well forget an Adames extension completely, since an elite offensive and defensive year would price him out of our reach.

Extending Burnes is a pipe-dream. An extension for Woody pays him for past-prime years.

I think the safest and most realistic extension would be Adames for two reasons. Age & the fact he’s a position player. 

Even an 8 year extension gets us the majority of his years in-prime. But obviously we should try to do less years. I’d love to see a 4 year deal at $85M. Go with more up-front, 15-20-25-25. 

Adames would still be young enough to get a large contract post-Brewers and we’d very likely get his best seasons.

If you read my entire post, you'll notice my ranking was based on comfortability with signing, not probability of actually signing....

 There's still some amount of projection to Adames' profile, whereas we know Burnes and Woody are elite pitchers in the game and are likely to stay that way over the next several years barring catastrophic injury. His sub .300 OBP this season remains a concern, despite his low BABIP

I don't get why a being a position player is a plus. I'd rather have an ace pitcher such as Woody, even with his age, given that ace pitchers age better and how crucial they are to a successful World Series formula. 

 

[SF70]

26 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If you read my entire post, you'll notice my ranking was based on comfortability with signing, not probability of actually signing....

 There's still some amount of projection to Adames' profile, whereas we know Burnes and Woody are elite pitchers in the game and are likely to stay that way over the next several years barring catastrophic injury. His sub .300 OBP this season remains a concern, despite his low BABIP

I don't get why a being a position player is a plus. I'd rather have an ace pitcher such as Woody, even with his age, given that ace pitchers age better and how crucial they are to a successful World Series formula. 

 

Positional player extension’s are less risky than pitcher extension’s because of the potential for catastrophic pitching injuries. A TJ or serious shoulder injury, best case, knocks away 2 years of that pitcher being 100% the pitcher he was prior to injury.

And a Woodruff extension would be for all of his post-prime years, which this team probably shouldn’t risk imo. For every Wheeler there’s a deGrom, an ace that can’t stay healthy.

[umphrey]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I guess the argument would be...IF you got hypothetically 4-5 top 100 propsects+5-6 top 150 prospects back for the three, if you then combined them with Frelick, Chourio, Quero, Misiorowski, Black, Mitchell, Wiemer, Gasser...and what appears to be the deepest and best farm system we've had in a while, you'd have a group coming up together that could end up better off. 

Especially if you're going to lose them for nothing. And I'm not certain what you mean by the "we could trade 1, finish with a draft pick around 15 and not really be set up to win in 3 years because of the weak rebuild move."

I'm not sure if you're talking about comp picks or what exactly. 

Trading 1 guy, I don't think it's enough to make it a rebuild. Trade 2 of them and get a top 5 draft pick and we can get there. 

[UpandIn]

13 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That Baez contract terrified me for the same reason a long-term Adames contract terrifies me: guys with terrible discipline, a middling strikeout rate, and good contact skills tend to age really badly.

When Baez signed that deal, I called him a rich man's Eddie Rosario and given the first year of Baez in Detroit, that turned out to be an overly generous comparison point.

I'm not against an Adames extension if done immediately but I'd rather pay more money for fewer years, as I have very little faith in Willy aging well into his 30s.

I'm with you...to a degree. Adames and Baez are in two totally different leagues when it comes to plate discipline(at least walks). Adames was over 10% last year, 2 of his 3 years in TB before that, he was juust below 10%. Two other years he was at 7.9. That's concerning. 

Similar K rates, but Adames walks more. He can definitely get wild and swing at too much, but he reigns it back in. 

Not to say your larger point isn't right, they're guys who go up there looking to hit the ball a mile, but Baez is just...as undisciplined as you can get. 

On a side note, I just thought I'd look at what Vladimir Guerrero's BB/K rate was 8.1/10.9

Tell me that doesn't show you how the game has changed. Or maybe it's just my perception, but I thought Vlad Sr struck out a lot. Great bad ball hitter(the famous single off the bouncing ball). 

Anyway, I thought Baez deal was actually fine. 6/140. Not too long, I didn't think he was a great player, but he was exciting, you knew what you'd be getting. I thought the Story deal was a bad one and pointless. Terrible outside of Coors and now Fenway...a haven for RHed hitters and moving from SS. Especially when you compare that with the 10 years 300M that the top SS seek. 

 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, SF70 said:

Positional player extension’s are less risky than pitcher extension’s because of the potential for catastrophic pitching injuries. A TJ or serious shoulder injury, best case, knocks away 2 years of that pitcher being 100% the pitcher he was prior to injury.

And a Woodruff extension would be for all of his post-prime years, which this team probably shouldn’t risk imo. For every Wheeler there’s a deGrom, an ace that can’t stay healthy.

Ok...every pitcher gets hurt, but I think you're exaggerating the risks at this point. TJ generally means one season, not two. Maybe it takes two to get back to 100%, but really, most elite pitchers come back better than they were before. Their arm often gets stronger. 

I just don't know what you're looking for if not Woodruff. His avg FB velo was 94.8 in 2017. It's 96.4 now. He's a big 6'4 240 ace who can carry that FB velo deep into games, he's reliable. 

The only real risk for a pitcher is a shoulder injury. His has been fine. And I don't think age has been as much of an issue as usage is. Woodruff is 29 and he's thrown 613 innings. He's a bulldog. 

As for deGrom, he's averaged roughly 164 innings pitched since he came up in 2016 and nearly 5 WAR PER YEAR despite what I think is a gross exaggeration when you say he "can't stay healthy." 

He's basically had one injury and he's come all the way back from it. Sign me up for that type of...risk ANY day of the week. 

 

Now...Wheeler, who you're holding up as the upside, he's actually pitched fewer innings than deGrom despite coming up at the same time. And he's been worth ~20 fewer WAR. 

Is the issue really age or is it just that sometimes power arms need TJ or due to maximum effort to have to sit down, skip a couple starts?

 

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If you read my entire post, you'll notice my ranking was based on comfortability with signing, not probability of actually signing....

 There's still some amount of projection to Adames' profile, whereas we know Burnes and Woody are elite pitchers in the game and are likely to stay that way over the next several years barring catastrophic injury. His sub .300 OBP this season remains a concern, despite his low BABIP

I don't get why a being a position player is a plus. I'd rather have an ace pitcher such as Woody, even with his age, given that ace pitchers age better and how crucial they are to a successful World Series formula. 

 

The whole, "extending Burnes is a pipe dream," is really over the top. It's the same language that was used with Yelich. 

And I agree, give me the ace pitcher every day of the week. That's what wins you World Series. 

Even if Adames were to have his breakout season, I laid out the LONG list of elite Shortstops and how few teams are in need of one. I have no doubt a team would want him, but he'd be the clear #5 most valuable SS this year in FA. 

Last year he'd be...4th at best, probably 5th. 

 

9 hours ago, SF70 said:

Then you might as well forget an Adames extension completely, since an elite offensive and defensive year would price him out of our reach.

Extending Burnes is a pipe-dream. An extension for Woody pays him for past-prime years.

I don't think it would with Adames, but...lets move past that.

What are "prime years" for a pitcher? A pitcher that has effectively 3 years worth of 200IP seasons thus far? Your early 30s are MAYBE past your prime years if you're a Basketball player. Definitely a RB. But this strange obsession with 30 for baseball players, pitchers in particular. Especially when you haven't overused or abused them. He's thrown fewer innings in his CAREER than deGrom did in his back to back Cy Young seasons and then 2019(before deGrom's '20 season in which he threw 10 more innings than Burnes breakout year).

Also, Burnes extension being a pipe dream is only if you're going off the historic FA contract signed by Cole...that was signed as a FA, not the deal signed by deGrom, the better pitcher. 5/130. That's not a pipe dream and that's a fair offer to Burnes. 

[UpandIn]

10 hours ago, SF70 said:

Then you might as well forget an Adames extension completely, since an elite offensive and defensive year would price him out of our reach.

Extending Burnes is a pipe-dream. An extension for Woody pays him for past-prime years.

I think the safest and most realistic extension would be Adames for two reasons. Age & the fact he’s a position player. 

Even an 8 year extension gets us the majority of his years in-prime. But obviously we should try to do less years. I’d love to see a 4 year deal at $85M. Go with more up-front, 15-20-25-25. 

Adames would still be young enough to get a large contract post-Brewers and we’d very likely get his best seasons.

Adames is probably going to make ~8-9M this year. Maybe 18 next year. So lets say 27 conservatively. 

We'd be paying nearly 30M for his 2 FA seasons. I don't see the point of giving him a contract 2 years early if you don't get anything out of it.

You could wait until he hit Free Agency and likely sign him at that rate. That is the type of contract you give him IF he puts together the big season you're hoping for, not at this point...IMO. 

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, umphrey said:

Trading 1 guy, I don't think it's enough to make it a rebuild. Trade 2 of them and get a top 5 draft pick and we can get there. 

I asked you to clarify exactly what you meant, but it sounds like you're saying if they traded 2 of the 3 players, they'd finish up with one of the 3 worst records in the game and be in a "full rebuild" with a top 5 pick?

I think that's vastly overstating things. If you just got rid of say Burnes and Adames, got nothing back for them and went with the same lineup you had last year, same pitching staff...which...if those players are good enough to take us from a 95 and 86 win team, it's hard to see how we'd struggle to win more than 60 games.

I don't think anyone is suggesting a "full rebuild," over maximizing the players we've got who have enormous value, turning them into prospects who will be arriving with Frelick and company. I also wouldn't tank for picks...particularly now that there is a lottery system. The Brewers could end up with the 5th pick and a significant bonus pool(unlikely as it may be). 

[SF70]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

The whole, "extending Burnes is a pipe dream," is really over the top. It's the same language that was used with Yelich. 

And I agree, give me the ace pitcher every day of the week. That's what wins you World Series. 

Even if Adames were to have his breakout season, I laid out the LONG list of elite Shortstops and how few teams are in need of one. I have no doubt a team would want him, but he'd be the clear #5 most valuable SS this year in FA. 

Last year he'd be...4th at best, probably 5th. 

 

I don't think it would with Adames, but...lets move past that.

What are "prime years" for a pitcher? A pitcher that has effectively 3 years worth of 200IP seasons thus far? Your early 30s are MAYBE past your prime years if you're a Basketball player. Definitely a RB. But this strange obsession with 30 for baseball players, pitchers in particular. Especially when you haven't overused or abused them. He's thrown fewer innings in his CAREER than deGrom did in his back to back Cy Young seasons and then 2019(before deGrom's '20 season in which he threw 10 more innings than Burnes breakout year).

Also, Burnes extension being a pipe dream is only if you're going off the historic FA contract signed by Cole...that was signed as a FA, not the deal signed by deGrom, the better pitcher. 5/130. That's not a pipe dream and that's a fair offer to Burnes. 

I would probably do a Burnes extension for 5/130, but I don’t think he’d sign for that. 

A pitchers prime is at least 1 year younger than a positional player. 24/25-28/29 vs 25/26-29-30.

 

[SF70]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Adames is probably going to make ~8-9M this year. Maybe 18 next year. So lets say 27 conservatively. 

We'd be paying nearly 30M for his 2 FA seasons. I don't see the point of giving him a contract 2 years early if you don't get anything out of it.

You could wait until he hit Free Agency and likely sign him at that rate. That is the type of contract you give him IF he puts together the big season you're hoping for, not at this point...IMO. 

What we get is his prime-years performance, which, imo, is definitely worth paying extra for to avoid paying for post-prime performance.

[UpandIn]

9 hours ago, SF70 said:

I would probably do a Burnes extension for 5/130, but I don’t think he’d sign for that. 

A pitchers prime is at least 1 year younger than a positional player. 24/25-28/29 vs 25/26-29-30.

 

I don't think that's true in 2022 at all. In fact I think it's just the opposite. Long term statistics may be skewed by the steroid era, but it's quite a bit more common to see pitchers thrive into their late 30s than it is position players. 
 

Edit-I think it's 50/50 Burnes takes that deal, maybe you add a 6th year mutual option for 35M with a 5M buyout to make it 135. That's what deGrom got and again, he was just better, more dominant, a different level than even Burnes. 

But I wouldn't go past the 5 ~135.

Edited November 13, 2022 by UpandIn
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[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, SF70 said:

What we get is his prime-years performance, which, imo, is definitely worth paying extra for to avoid paying for post-prime performance.

What I'm saying is there's no upside in that contract. You're paying Adames like he's already put up a couple of 6 or 7 WAR seasons. He's put up a 4.4 WAR season in which he had an OBP under .300. 

He's really good, but you're paying extra up front...which hurts you, and again, you're paying him CLOSE to what Correa got last year for the Twins as a FA. He's not in that league. Not yet. You should be getting at least a 5th year if you're willing to commit to 85M. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, SF70 said:

I would probably do a Burnes extension for 5/130, but I don’t think he’d sign for that. 

A pitchers prime is at least 1 year younger than a positional player. 24/25-28/29 vs 25/26-29-30.

The biggest problem with extending pitchers is that you never know who the rubber-armed fools are until they’re established rubber-armed fools.

Justin Verlander looked completely cooked as a 33-34 year old and look at him now as a 39 year old. 

[UpandIn]

On 11/12/2022 at 6:50 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

The biggest problem with extending pitchers is that you never know who the rubber-armed fools are until they’re established rubber-armed fools.

Justin Verlander looked completely cooked as a 33-34 year old and look at him now as a 39 year old. 

And I will GLADLY sign up for a pitcher when he looks cooked at 33-34 finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting both years and put up over 14.3 WAR! 

Obviously just being a smart ass. He did struggle a couple years earlier at age 31/32 and looked like he might be done being an ace. In 2014 they speculated he came back too quickly from a core muscle injury and his mechanics were off.

THEN 2015 he started off terribly giving up 7ER, 7ER and 6 ER in his first 5 starts and finished with a 2.49 ERA the last ~100IP. 

Whatever it was, Tigers fans were talking about their ace was done, his velocity dipped, he was clearly not the same pitcher as he dealt with injuries those two years...blamed the Tigers saying they mis-diagnosed him.

Still put up 6.3Fwar those two years, but just 3.3 bWAR which seems much more accurate. 

 

The thing is, there ARE other signs. You can reasonably guess a pitcher who have very little wear on his arm is not going to fall off a cliff due to age. It's not a skill that increases or declines significantly with age. Wear and tear maybe, but it's not like just losing bat speed or speed-speed which is a concern with Trea Turner. All you can do is just look at their body of work, their trends in terms of velocity and command and make an informed decision. I think Clayton Kershaw has shown signs of decline before he REALLY showed them, but he's been so protected by the Dodgers pitching depth, they could give him extra time off. 

 

Bartolo Colon was an effective pitcher into his 40s. If there has ever been an indication of ANY player putting almost no effort into maintaining his physical ability...or ability to move anything than his right arm in a throwing motion it was Colon. If you're talking left arm, then it'd be David Wells. 

[MrTPlush]

Realistically they need to figure out if they can extend Burnes (they can’t), then they need to figure out if they can extend Woodruff (maybe…if they want to), or Adames (just no).

If they can’t sign either pitcher and opt to trade one, all three of these players should get shipped out if a team offers a good deal. Trading one and thinking you are going to actually compete for a World Series in 2023 is just comical if you are being realistic. Many are depressed about 2023 even IF we keep them all…let alone trading one. So if that is the case, why risk any chance of regression or injury next year? 
 

To me, it is exactly how this question is asked. Keep all…or keep none. Obviously it depends on the offers, but it’s all or bust in my mind.

[SF70]

On 11/14/2022 at 7:01 AM, UpandIn said:

And I will GLADLY sign up for a pitcher when he looks cooked at 33-34 finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting both years and put up over 14.3 WAR! 

Obviously just being a smart ass. He did struggle a couple years earlier at age 31/32 and looked like he might be done being an ace. In 2014 they speculated he came back too quickly from a core muscle injury and his mechanics were off.

THEN 2015 he started off terribly giving up 7ER, 7ER and 6 ER in his first 5 starts and finished with a 2.49 ERA the last ~100IP. 

Whatever it was, Tigers fans were talking about their ace was done, his velocity dipped, he was clearly not the same pitcher as he dealt with injuries those two years...blamed the Tigers saying they mis-diagnosed him.

Still put up 6.3Fwar those two years, but just 3.3 bWAR which seems much more accurate. 

 

The thing is, there ARE other signs. You can reasonably guess a pitcher who have very little wear on his arm is not going to fall off a cliff due to age. It's not a skill that increases or declines significantly with age. Wear and tear maybe, but it's not like just losing bat speed or speed-speed which is a concern with Trea Turner. All you can do is just look at their body of work, their trends in terms of velocity and command and make an informed decision. I think Clayton Kershaw has shown signs of decline before he REALLY showed them, but he's been so protected by the Dodgers pitching depth, they could give him extra time off. 

 

Bartolo Colon was an effective pitcher into his 40s. If there has ever been an indication of ANY player putting almost no effort into maintaining his physical ability...or ability to move anything than his right arm in a throwing motion it was Colon. If you're talking left arm, then it'd be David Wells. 

Based on the teams stated goal of perpetual playoff contention, trading all 3 is not going to happen. That would  very likely force a rebuild. Holding all 3 will also force a rebuild, just not until after the ‘25 season.

I think it’s more likely they trade 1 (Burnes > trade return), extend 1 (Adames > safest), and ride the other for the draft-pick (Woodruff). This gives the team a good chance to contend thru 2024 and beyond if they nail the Burnes return.

The extention and hold should also help mitigate the casual fan’s reaction to Burnes being traded. 

 

[Soupbone]

In SF70's proposal instead of riding  Woodruff for a draft pick trade him at the deadline. Return would be greater.

[Soupbone]

Unless, of course, you are in first place at the time.

[Brewcrew82]

6 hours ago, SF70 said:

Based on the teams stated goal of perpetual playoff contention, trading all 3 is not going to happen. That would  very likely force a rebuild. Holding all 3 will also force a rebuild, just not until after the ‘25 season.

I think it’s more likely they trade 1 (Burnes > trade return), extend 1 (Adames > safest), and ride the other for the draft-pick (Woodruff). This gives the team a good chance to contend thru 2024 and beyond if they nail the Burnes return.

The extention and hold should also help mitigate the casual fan’s reaction to Burnes being traded. 

 

Growing contingent of baseball insiders saying the Brewers are unlikely to trade any of the three this offseason and are looking instead to build around them....

https://fansided.com/2022/11/15/mlb-free-agency-updates-early-trade-candidates/

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34986165/2022-23-mlb-offseason-passan-free-agency-predictions

https://theathletic.com/3896331/2022/11/14/rosenthal-mlb-free-agency-rumors/

[DR28]

Trade Woody to Texas for Jung+ or to NY for Baty+

Keep and extend Burnes, Adames.