Would you prefer the Brewers trade Woodruff, Burnes and Adames or keep them?

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I don't really get the Adames hype sometimes...maybe it is just me, but Adames isn't even in the same universe that those peak Baez/Story years were. Both of those guys had pretty long track records. Story had multiple .900+ OPS seasons and Baez had a second place MVP finish plus many great seasons. Those guys had high ceilings and hit them in multiple seasons. 

Adames has had his spurts of elite play...but realistically he has 3 full seasons to his name. An OPS of .735, .818, and last year was .756. There is still a lot of uncertainty on how good he is and if he can consistently do it every year. Giving him $100mil+ sounds like a potential disaster wrapped up in a giftbox. Brewers shouldn't probably avoid giving a SS a contract for his 30s.

Baez Career 104 wRC+ when he hit FA with a peak of 131 (2018), 3 total times north of 110 and 5 times south of 100.

Story Career 111 wRC+ when he hit FA with a peak of 128 (2018), 4 times north of 110, and 2 below 100,

Adames Career 111 wRC+ peak of 126 (2020) with 3 total times north of 110 (2022 just missed at 109), and 1 time below 100 (2019 just missed at 99)

I think FA $/WAR is around $8 M, and even at $6 M/WAR you're looking 3 WAR for the money. There's certainly risk like any contract, but I'm fine with the risk at that level. If he'd sign cheaper, I'd certainly prefer that.

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

The movie was literally about a 102 win team regrouping after losing Giambi(1.137 OPS) and an All-Star CFer Johnny Damon and replacing them with high OBP guys and then winning 103 games. 

 

High OBP (with low-moderate HRs) guys were undervalued back then. Now, teams value OBP more, so have to look for the next undervalued class of players.

BTW, it might be the lowish OBP with plenty of HR guys like Tellez.

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

And both of those deals look terrible right now and they're a year old. 

Baez had two 6+ War seasons at 25 and 26. Adames best season was 4.4 WAR. 

And Baez turned down 8/168 for an average of 21M per one year before free agency and he was coming off 13 WAR in the previous 2 seasons and an MVP runner up. Story put up even better years at 25 and 26 putting up 13.1 WAR. And again, both look like bad deals right now.

Yeah, I could see Willy putting up 6 WAR...but he hasn't yet. You're comparing him to players who, at the same age, put up MUCH higher war. 

You're also locking him up through age 35, not 34 with the option at age 35. 

 

It was in the ballpark of $180 M before the 2020 season 2 years before he hit FA not 1 year at least according to Olney's reporting.

There's certainly risk, and I would take fewer years if I could. I don't think that's possible, so I'm fine risk in the deal I laid out.

The option year isn't a guaranteed year, so I don't treat it as him being locked in. Just a difference in semantics, so I'll leave that there.

[MrTPlush]

3 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Baez Career 104 wRC+ when he hit FA with a peak of 131 (2018), 3 total times north of 110 and 5 times south of 100.

Story Career 111 wRC+ when he hit FA with a peak of 128 (2018), 4 times north of 110, and 2 below 100,

Adames Career 111 wRC+ peak of 126 (2020) with 3 total times north of 110 (2022 just missed at 109), and 1 time below 100 (2019 just missed at 99)

I think FA $/WAR is around $8 M, and even at $6 M/WAR you're looking 3 WAR for the money. There's certainly risk like any contract, but I'm fine with the risk at that level. If he'd sign cheaper, I'd certainly prefer that.

So Aaron Judge is getting $50mil+?People thought $8mil was too much for $24mil Kolton Wong (3 WAR guy). Have Peterson could make $15mil?

It just doesn’t work that way.  

[Redd Vencher]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

So Aaron Judge is getting $50mil+?People thought $8mil was too much for $24mil Kolton Wong (3 WAR guy). Have Peterson could make $15mil?

It just doesn’t work that way.  

I take it you're conceding the Adames/Story/Baez comparison.

The $/WAR calculation is based on what teams actually spent in FA. Obviously, the average isn't going to be the same for every player as teams have their own internals on player value that differs from team to team. The whole Moneyball philosophy is about finding players the market undervalues.

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

It was in the ballpark of $180 M before the 2020 season 2 years before he hit FA not 1 year at least according to Olney's reporting.

There's certainly risk, and I would take fewer years if I could. I don't think that's possible, so I'm fine risk in the deal I laid out.

The option year isn't a guaranteed year, so I don't treat it as him being locked in. Just a difference in semantics, so I'll leave that there.

Olney reported only a "offer in the area of 180," no # of years, no details and the Cubs, per Baez, pulled the offer Per the Athletic, he turned down 8/168.

Quote

According to The Athletic’s sources, Baez was “hoping for a bigger payday on the free agent market”, which was made clear by all of the expectations analysts predicted for Baez. To further this point, Baez even turned down an eight-year, $168 million offer from the Cubs in 2020.

So Baez basically lost himself 8M dollars by the time he got to the FA market which has been absolutely stacked with SS's the past couple years(this year included). To the point where there actually moving elite defensive SS's to different positions as the did with Story in Boston(Which never made much since given his production way from Coors.
Story at Coors-.303/.369/.972
Story away from Coors- .241/.310/.752

So we should just throw out the Story comp IMO. 

Quote

 

"But everything that happened around the world with the pandemic changed everything for everybody. I am happy and have no judgment about that. Everything happens for a reason. Who knows what would have happened if I would have stayed.”

 

 

 

BUT AGAIN, you paying Willy for what you think he can still do. He's been an inconsistent defensive and offensive player(coming off an elite year defensively) but a 4.4 WAR. Story and Baez at 25/26, the last two years Adames was had put up WARs from Again, ages 25, 26, Willy has put up ~8.5 WAR. Story 13.2, Baez 13.0. That's a BIG gap, plus a MVP runner up award. 

So that's a ~5 WAR difference. That in and of itself is better than any season Willy's had. Any contract extension, especially if we're using Story and Baez's deals, they should reflect that. 

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, Robocaller said:

High OBP (with low-moderate HRs) guys were undervalued back then. Now, teams value OBP more, so have to look for the next undervalued class of players.

BTW, it might be the lowish OBP with plenty of HR guys like Tellez.

I think it may be speed, defense(especially with the shift) and low K rates. 

Baseball is cyclical. Maybe we're going back to good pitching and guys who can get an IF single, get themselves to 2nd and then score on back to back outs. 

It'd be nice given the current construction of our farm system. 

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

I take it you're conceding the Adames/Story/Baez comparison.

The $/WAR calculation is based on what teams actually spent in FA. Obviously, the average isn't going to be the same for every player as teams have their own internals on player value that differs from team to team. The whole Moneyball philosophy is about finding players the market undervalues.

No, because I don’t think Adames is near either offensively or defensively. 
 

Your use of WRc is being really generous for Adames. His peak was in 2020, not even an actual half seasons worth of PAs. You are also using his 2018, which while a bit more games, still nowhere near a full season.

Adames has just now put together two full seasons of baseball in a row, both of which are quite different results…great years, but offensively and defensively they were pretty different one way or the other. Story had three full years and Baez had four. Both averaged about 6.5 WAR in their 25/26 seasons….Adames with about 4 WAR.

Wily Adames would command a pretty penny for an extension, but I think he has a HUGE amount more risk than Baez or Story would have perceived to have at the same venture. Those guys looked to be sure bets to be yearly big producers…I don’t think Adames has done that yet. Unless he would take a 4 year deal you would essentially have to give him 8 years. Not saying I would do it, but I am guessing 8/$120mil would be a realistic middle ground offer. Not sure what his FA class is looking like though…which could dramatically effect what he could hope of getting.

[sveumrules]

Since becoming a full time starter in 2019 Adames is 11th in WAR among SS at 12.5. His components are 111 wRC+ | +6.9 BSR | +25.3 DEF

Over that same time frame Story is 10th in WAR among SS at 13.6 with a 110 wRC+ | +19.2 BSR | +30.7 DEF.

Willy has essentially been Trevor without the wheels over the last four seasons.

Since 2019 Baez comes in 12th among SS at 12.4 WAR with 100 wRC+ | +6.3 BSR | +51.3 DEF.

Essentially a wash on WAR, Javy better with the glove, Willy better with the bat.

[sveumrules]

If one wants to give Willy a pass for 2019 since it was his first full season and narrow the parameters to 2020-22 it shakes out to…

Willy (10.6 WAR)
116 wRC+ | +4.6 BSR | +13.6 DEF 

Story (7.2 WAR)
103 wRC+ | +13.3 BSR | +11.7 DEF

Baez (6.5 WAR)
95 wRC+ | +5.1. BSR | +19.5 DEF

If one wanted to give everyone a pass on 2020 for extenuating circumstances and instead just look at the last two full seasons it shakes out to…

Willy (8.0 WAR)
114 wRC+ | +2.6 BSR | +14.6 DEF

Baez (6.0 WAR)
103 wRC+ | +5.5 BSR | +11.5 DEF

Story (5.1 WAR)
99 wRC+ | +9.3 BSR | +9.2 DEF

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Wily Adames would command a pretty penny for an extension, but I think he has a HUGE amount more risk than Baez or Story would have perceived to have at the same venture. Those guys looked to be sure bets to be yearly big producers…I don’t think Adames has done that yet. Unless he would take a 4 year deal you would essentially have to give him 8 years. Not saying I would do it, but I am guessing 8/$120mil would be a realistic middle ground offer. Not sure what his FA class is looking like though…which could dramatically effect what he could hope of getting.

I don't even know if I agree those guys were both sure bets. Baez maybe...though he had incredibly poor OBP, but he was an electric player who had incredible defensive versatility. 

But Story on the other hand...he was Juan Soto at Coors and Christian Yelich(post 2019) on the road. And since leaving Coors for the friendly confines of Fenway, he's STILL down ~.250 points on his OPS from Coors to Fenway and then down to .642 OPS at home. 

So...talk about cautionary tales. Better by quite a bit than Adames at the same ages but both signed contracts that their teams would likely love to get out of at the moment. 

Also, look at the state of SS around MLB. Correa couldn't get his 300M last year, so he had to settle for a 3 year deal with a PO to try again this year with Correa, Turner and Swanson as other FAs.

So I'll roll the dice with Adames unless he signs a ~6/90 deal with maybe a couple TOs at 25. I like him a lot, but he hasn't become the superstar that we'd be paying him as. 

[UpandIn]

48 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

If one wants to give Willy a pass for 2019 since it was his first full season and narrow the parameters to 2020-22 it shakes out to…

Willy (10.6 WAR)
116 wRC+ | +4.6 BSR | +13.6 DEF 

Story (7.2 WAR)
103 wRC+ | +13.3 BSR | +11.7 DEF

Baez (6.5 WAR)
95 wRC+ | +5.1. BSR | +19.5 DEF

If one wanted to give everyone a pass on 2020 for extenuating circumstances and instead just look at the last two full seasons it shakes out to…

Willy (8.0 WAR)
114 wRC+ | +2.6 BSR | +14.6 DEF

Baez (6.0 WAR)
103 wRC+ | +5.5 BSR | +11.5 DEF

Story (5.1 WAR)
99 wRC+ | +9.3 BSR | +9.2 DEF

Yes, if we massage the numbers in order to take Willy Adames best 2 year stretch while excluding Story and Baez' two year stretch, then he would certainly look better.

Just the obvious flaws with these. His +14.6 Def the last two years is the result of 14.8 while last year he had a -.2 DEF.

So you're just really skewing this to make Adames look at best as possible, while...again, taking the other two players worse seasons. 

The argument was made that he was on the same trajectory as those two were at the same point in their respective careers as a justification for that extension. But he's not been better and both of those teams would gladly get out from under those deals if they could. 

Also, bWAR

Adames WAR 7.9
Baez-7.1 WAR
Story-6.7
 

But if that's ALL you have to go on...who's giving the later two players 6/140?

He's been marginally better than the other two while Story has played ~50 fewer games and due to the presence of Xander Boegarts, he moved from SS to 2B. Kida just felt like an afterthought move Boston

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Just the obvious flaws with these. His +14.6 Def the last two years is the result of 14.8 while last year he had a -.2 DEF.

So you're just really skewing this to make Adames look at best as possible, while...again, taking the other two players worse seasons. 

Single season defensive metrics are highly volatile, I don’t see how it’s flawed to include multiple seasons.

I’m not trying to make anybody look anything. A comparison was made between three players so I just presented splits for the last four, three, and two seasons. People are free to draw whatever conclusions they wish.

[UpandIn]

46 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Single season defensive metrics are highly volatile, I don’t see how it’s flawed to include multiple seasons.

I’m not trying to make anybody look anything. A comparison was made between three players so I just presented splits for the last four, three, and two seasons. People are free to draw whatever conclusions they wish.

Then shouldn't the starting point be the production of the players who are being compared to him for salary purposes include their best years rather than ignoring them and including their worst years while including Adames best years?

If we're talking about both current and future value, do you think that's a large enough sample size to compare Baez, Story and Adames?

It's like comparing the last 3 years and saying Mike Trout and George Springer are comparable because Trout has 9.9 WAR from 2020-2022 and Springer has 8.6.

Stats tell the story you want them to tell when presented in a certain way. 

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Not sure what his FA class is looking like though…which could dramatically effect what he could hope of getting.

I've been making this argument for a while now, but I don't think we've seen as much SS talent as we have in MLB in a VERY long time. There are just SO many teams who either have established SS stars, elite young SS prospects...a guy like Carlos Correa would NORMALLY have no trouble getting 300M. Trea Turner would have been locked up. 

And then Dansby Swanson was the 3rd rated FA overall(behind Aaron Judge because...Jim Bowden exists, but still, he IS a very good SS). And then you have Xander Boegarts who's going to be a FA. 

I just went by real quick and did a team by team on their SS situation without really getting too far into just the likelihood of a team spending money, but...I deleted it on accident. Literally how ALMOST every team either has an elite SS, a young SS or a couple like Oakland who aren't going to be in the bidding anyway.

I'll do a recap. 

ALE-NYY(Volpe(5), Peraza~45), Balt(Henderson(2), Holliday(13), TB Franco and prospects, Tor, Bichette+a top 50 prospects
ALC-Minn looks like they'll try and re-sign Correa, even if unlikely, they have two top SS prospects. 
Cleveland-Loaded farm system, 26 year old SS
ChW-Tim Anderson+Their top prospect
KC-Bobby Witt Jr

ALW-Oak-didn't bother looking. 
Hou-a 25 year old coming off a ~5 WAR season who was just ALCS MVP and WS MVP...and expenses elsewhere. 
LAA-The first team I think could invest, but they also have Ohtani, Trout, Rendon and no pitching.
Seattle-JP Crawford
Texas-Just signed Seager and Seimen

NLE-
ATL-Trying to re-sign Dansby, but they have 5 stud position players locked up and their #1 prospect Vaughn played 2B last year when Albies was out. 
Miami, Philly-Both could spend on a SS. 
NYM-Lindor

NLC-
Pitt-Cruz is a core piece, plus a SS with a 70 hit tool and another top ~70 prospect who is a plus defender. And they don't spend money and if they do, it won't be on a SS. 
STL-They've got Edman and a top 50 prospect with a 80 arm and a 60 grade defensively who's in AA and a top ~50.
ChC-Their best player, Nico Hoener
Cincy-4 of their top 5 prospects are SS and they're all rated in the top 70 including the guy they got for Castillo. So the 14th and the 17th best prospects are SS's who are close. 
Brewers-I wouldn't even include Turang if this was any other team because he's not rated, so it's a superficial "rating," but it speaks to what teams would be inclined to spend on a SS rather than other positions. 

NLW-AZ-#12 prospect is a SS, Lawlar, the #2 pick a couple years ago and he's in AA. 
SFG-They have Crawford who's 35 and then Luciano(16) who has a cannon but might not stick at SS. 
LAD-They will likely sign one of the 4 SSs IMO, probably Turner, but they have Lux and if not, they're in play. 
SDP-They have Kim who put up 5.1 WAR this year, Jake Crownenworth who held down SS when Tatis got injured and Tatis could always move back to SS...PLUS their top prospect, also  SS. 
Col-They have a 21 year old SS with a 60 arm and a 70 field already up at the MLB level. 

 

So...obviously there aren't "too many" good Shortstops and teams can always move players off the position, but looking back at least year, there wasn't the demand for SS that people were expecting. Seager took the Rangers deal first, but Correa had to settle for a 3 year deal with a PO so he could get back into FA. Story and Baez were looking for 200M+ and didn't come close. 

The Red Sox offered to add 20M and one more year to Xander Boegart's deal...which he apparently found insulting. 

All these talented young SSs and I think there are 4-5 teams at most who will spend for them and that's assuming the Twins and Marlins are going to behave uncharacteristically and spend big. Both teams are rumored to be all in on Correa, but beyond that, where do the other 3 go?

 

I think in addition to pitchers getting shorter deals with massive AAV, I think Shortstops are going to struggle to get paid what we'd have expected. Just a couple trends I think we're going to see. 

Of course, another way to look at it, if you can play SS, you can usually play 3rd(even if you haven't played it since 2013).

I don't know what that means, but if we go into this off-season and say...Dansby Swanson gets ~25 per year over 6 years and Correa and Turner end up closer to 200 than 300(more Turner, I expect Correa to cash in)...that could impact what Willy Adames is willing to sign for.

 

All this to say, I'd hold the line at 6/90 with 2 option years at ~25M and a 8M buyout. Guarantee him 6/98. And I'd only do that after Burnes and Woodruff turned down deals. But I definitely wouldn't use two deals that just one year in look very bad for players who'd vastly out-performed Adames...though I do understand the rationale. It DOES seem like he COULD be headed for 6-7 WAR seasons at his peak. If the defense comes and his BA/OBP rebounds, then that's an MVP candidate. But I wouldn't just trust that. 

[MrTPlush]

Yah, those numbers don't make a ton of sense for any argument. Using the 2022 stats of Baez/Story is completely useless. They got their $160mil before the season...so even if you are arguing Adames would get $140mil or potentially more as a FA in two years...what those guys did in 2022 means nothing to that argument.  It also gets fuzzy using 2020 stats at all because I think most teams gave people a pass regardless of what they did.

One could point of Story and his Coors stats or his splits...but history has shown over and over again teams don't really care. Some team always treats them like they played in any other ballpark. 

 

[sveumrules]

In the four seasons (2018-21) before signing their respective FA deals Baez came in at 16.5 WAR | 113 wRC+ and Story came in at 15.8 WAR | 117 wRC+.

We don't know how Willy's next two seasons will go, or if he will even hit FA at all, but over his last two seasons he is at 8.0 WAR | 114 wRC+. If he maintains that type of production over the next two seasons, he would enter FA with the same kind of four season splits as Baez and Story.

[Robocaller]

13 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I think it may be speed, defense(especially with the shift) and low K rates. 

Baseball is cyclical. Maybe we're going back to good pitching and guys who can get an IF single, get themselves to 2nd and then score on back to back outs. 

It'd be nice given the current construction of our farm system. 

Since most teams don't run very much, speed is probably pretty appropriately valued. You're definitely right on defense.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

Since most teams don't run very much, speed is probably pretty appropriately valued. You're definitely right on defense.

Larger bases, new pick-off rules, pitch-clock, limited shifting, will lead to speed being much more important starting OD of ‘23. Stolen base % will skyrocket for teams with the speed to take advantage. 

And then there’s the stress this puts on the pitchers and how it will affect their pitching.

Having an 80-grade runner, a 70-grade runner, and 2 60 graders, not including Yelich, all potentially in the same lineup, all with high on-base potential, should cause havoc on the bases and to the opposition pitcher. 

[Redd Vencher]

The comparison you want to make is with their careers 2 years before FA.

Story 2282 PA 114 wRC+ 20.0 bWAR 19.5 fWAR

Baez 2473 PA 105 wRC+ 18.1 bWAR 17.3 fWAR

Adames 2284 PA 111 wRC+ 15.5 bWAR 13.7 fWAR

We're not even talking a significant difference between @UpandIn's top 6 year + 7th year option for $98 M and what lopping the last 2 seasons off the deal I would do. Mine would be 6 years + 7th year option for $100 M, so I don't think we're all that far apart in our evaluation of Adames. If we could do shorter, I'd do it. If we could do it cheaper, I'd do it. 

[Grabkoj]

People are forgetting the Orioles in the conversation

they are an ace away from being a pretty relevant team, even in the competitive American League East

I think they’re gonna trade one of them, and the guy is going to be Corbin Burnes.

They can get a lot of really good prospects from the Orioles along with another hitter, Orioles have Major League ready guys to trade and also guys to bring up to play everyday when they trade some regulars 

They can get a lot of really good prospects from the Orioles along with another hitter

Corbin Burnes and Tyrone Taylor to Orioles for P Grayson Rodriguez, P DL Hall, INF Coby Mayo, and OF Austin Hays

Rodriguez and Hall are bonefide starters, Hays is OF/DH with pop, and Mayo is two years away from being ML ready or even a reserve next year 

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

21 minutes ago, Grabkoj said:

People are forgetting the Orioles in the conversation

they are an ace away from being a pretty relevant team, even in the competitive American League East

I think they’re gonna trade one of them, and the guy is going to be Corbin Burnes.

They can get a lot of really good prospects from the Orioles along with another hitter, Orioles have Major League ready guys to trade and also guys to bring up to play everyday when they trade some regulars 

They can get a lot of really good prospects from the Orioles along with another hitter

Corbin Burnes and Tyrone Taylor to Orioles for P Grayson Rodriguez, P DL Hall, INF Coby Mayo, and OF Austin Hays

Rodriguez and Hall are bonefide starters, Hays is OF/DH with pop, and Mayo is two years away from being ML ready or even a reserve next year 

 

 

That's an overpay by the Orioles. And Hall is not what you would call a "bonafide starter". Great stuff, but real chance that he'll end up in the bullpen. 

[UpandIn]

13 hours ago, Grabkoj said:

People are forgetting the Orioles in the conversation

they are an ace away from being a pretty relevant team, even in the competitive American League East

I think they’re gonna trade one of them, and the guy is going to be Corbin Burnes.

They can get a lot of really good prospects from the Orioles along with another hitter, Orioles have Major League ready guys to trade and also guys to bring up to play everyday when they trade some regulars 

They can get a lot of really good prospects from the Orioles along with another hitter

Corbin Burnes and Tyrone Taylor to Orioles for P Grayson Rodriguez, P DL Hall, INF Coby Mayo, and OF Austin Hays

Rodriguez and Hall are bonefide starters, Hays is OF/DH with pop, and Mayo is two years away from being ML ready or even a reserve next year 

 

 

I guess these threads kinda all run together, but the idea of Burnes to the O's has been brought up...dozens of times...and for the reasons you say. They are on the brink of competing, and they're loaded with talent. 

BUT...hypothetically, would YOU trade Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Gasser and Luis Urias for Yordan Alvarez for 2 years(assuming he didn't sign that extension)?

And then realize that Baltimore's package is more valuable and that Baltimore's window is WIDE open. It's just started to open up. They've got the youngest position player in baseball in Gunnar Henderson who's already produced, Grayson Rodriguez has stuff that's similar to deGrom, DL Hall looks like he might be a reliever, but IF he can stay healthy and get his control down, he'll either be ace or he'll be a Josh Hader type closer.

I could see a trade where we get Westburg, Hall+....but I don't think they'll trade the top pitching prospect in baseball at this point. It just doesn't make sense. It shortens their window.  Also, it's as likely as not that they take a step back next year as they incorporate young players into the team....though, they COULD spend 100-130M in salary this off-season and still not be where they were the last time they were competitive. 

 

[umphrey]

I am usually a "trade them for prospects" kind of guy but I just don't see the point of it right now. The NL central is still winnable, the Cardinals aren't that good. 2 years of control is a long time. We could trade 1, finish with a draft pick around 15 and not really be set up to win in 3 years because of the weak rebuild move. If I am in charge of the Brewers I am still trying to win next year, I would even trade away prospects. I think next year is the year to potentially blow it up or at least force either a trade or an extension. 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, umphrey said:

I am usually a "trade them for prospects" kind of guy but I just don't see the point of it right now. The NL central is still winnable, the Cardinals aren't that good. 2 years of control is a long time. We could trade 1, finish with a draft pick around 15 and not really be set up to win in 3 years because of the weak rebuild move. If I am in charge of the Brewers I am still trying to win next year, I would even trade away prospects. I think next year is the year to potentially blow it up or at least force either a trade or an extension. 

I guess the argument would be...IF you got hypothetically 4-5 top 100 propsects+5-6 top 150 prospects back for the three, if you then combined them with Frelick, Chourio, Quero, Misiorowski, Black, Mitchell, Wiemer, Gasser...and what appears to be the deepest and best farm system we've had in a while, you'd have a group coming up together that could end up better off. 

Especially if you're going to lose them for nothing. And I'm not certain what you mean by the "we could trade 1, finish with a draft pick around 15 and not really be set up to win in 3 years because of the weak rebuild move."

I'm not sure if you're talking about comp picks or what exactly.