Would you prefer the Brewers trade Woodruff, Burnes and Adames or keep them?

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Moneyball seems more focused on tomorrow rather than today.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

That's just when it became official. Selig has ALMOST no day to day involvement in the Brewers organization when he was the interim commissioner. 

Wendy Selig-Prieb, Laurel Prieb and Bando were running the day to day operations of the Brewers...it just wasn't made official until Selig was officially named commissioner.

SHE represented the franchise at the owners meetings starting in 1992. So when she was officially named is of little consequence to me, she was the one calling the shots. 

Bud Selig didn't even know there was a problem with Molitor until a week or two before they had to decide to offer him arbitration and he stepped in at the last minute and tried to solve the problem, but the problems had been done. 

 

And I do not agree paying Rizzo would be a better idea than extending a young prospect. Vargas is projected to be worth nearly 1 more WAR next year...must less in 7 years when Rizzo(33) is 40 years old and Vargas(22) is 29.

OBVIOUSLY these signings would come a couple months into the season, but it's hardly unprecedented. It's how the Braves have locked up half of their everyday lineup through 2030. 

The point is to sign the young players to team friendly deals early in their careers.

I don’t want to rain on your fantasy parade about Wendy. She would have been 32 when Molitor left. Maybe she was running a MLB team behind the scenes at that age with no experience, but I doubt it.

As for Vargas, the Brewers are probably a few years too late. The pre-arbitration extensions are few and far in between since Albies and Acuna signed their deals (wonder why).

[DR28]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I think the Brewers should go all out the next few years.  Re-sign Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff.  The young talent in triple A and the projected stud in double A are too good to pass up.  I think it is safe to say that the only other team in Brewer history with this much talent is the '82 Brewers.  

 

Think about it the Brewers have Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Ruiz, and Turang joining an already solid squad.  I know the major and minor leagues lack relievers but the Brewers have lots of 4/5 starters.  Trade them, sign Bieber, and go for it the next few years.  If the payroll goes to $150 million is a problem for Attanasio sell the team.  There will never be a better time for him to sell.

 

Can you imagine the Brewers trotting out Burnes, Bieber, Woodruff, Peralta, and Lauer/Houser.  The NL central is wide open the Brewers should take advantage.  This should make a GM salivate.  

Bieber isnt a FA.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I think the Brewers should go all out the next few years.  Re-sign Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff.  The young talent in triple A and the projected stud in double A are too good to pass up.  I think it is safe to say that the only other team in Brewer history with this much talent is the '82 Brewers.  

 

Think about it the Brewers have Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Ruiz, and Turang joining an already solid squad.  I know the major and minor leagues lack relievers but the Brewers have lots of 4/5 starters.  Trade them, sign Bieber, and go for it the next few years.  If the payroll goes to $150 million is a problem for Attanasio sell the team.  There will never be a better time for him to sell.

 

Can you imagine the Brewers trotting out Burnes, Bieber, Woodruff, Peralta, and Lauer/Houser.  The NL central is wide open the Brewers should take advantage.  This should make a GM salivate.  

If the Brewers re-signed those 3 players and signed Shane Bieber their payroll would be well over $150M 

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, UpandIn said:

If we're in 1st place, but trending in the wrong direction and instead of trading a closer, you trade Corbin Burnes, the fallout of that would be...absolutely awful. So I think that'd be a difficult decision. 

That's the only time I think it'd be a hard decision. You get a good offer and you're on the brink of contending. 

You don't trade one of your starters at the deadline if you're contending. You acquire someone to fill a need if you can. It's simple.

[Redd Vencher]

It all comes down to whether they'll accept a deal that fits or when teams offer enough value to trade them. I don't think Burnes can be extended with the current trajectory he's on. We just saw a comparable pitcher to Woodruff in Castillo sign an extension that I think is feasible for the Brewers. I'd go 5 years $105 M with a 6th year option for Woodruff. (23 $10 M 24 $15 M 25-27 $25 M 28 $5 M buyout of $25 M option) I think Adames should be an extension candidate, and I'd be willing to go 8 years $132 M with a 9th year option. (22 $8 M 23 $12 M 24-29 $18 M 30 $4 M buyout of $18 M option) To make both fit with the Yelich deal, you can defer $5 M per year for Woodruff's FA years and $4 M per year for Adames' FA years. ($39-48 M defferred if options are picked up) Getting those 2 extensions done would make it an easier sell trading Burnes this offseason, but it's a lot of moving pieces.

[jay87shot]

8 years for Adames is way to much, he is a very good player but only superstars get 8 years. I would say like 5/84 (8,12,20,20,20 (4 mill buyout on 20 million 6th year option)).

[Brewcrew82]

56 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

8 years for Adames is way to much, he is a very good player but only superstars get 8 years. I would say like 5/84 (8,12,20,20,20 (4 mill buyout on 20 million 6th year option)).

Why would Adames take less than what he's scheduled to make in arbitration this year for the first year? 8 years may be too much, but that's not exactly a realistic proposal either. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It might take three guaranteed free agency years to extend Adames but $20m per year of free agency is probably in the right ballpark.

[SF70]

Higher AAV with less years for Adames. 4 years, $75M. 10-15-25-25. All prime. He then hits FA at 32. This team shouldn’t be paying for past-prime performance on extention’s — as a rule, with very few exceptions. 

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

8 years for Adames is way to much, he is a very good player but only superstars get 8 years. I would say like 5/84 (8,12,20,20,20 (4 mill buyout on 20 million 6th year option)).

He's pacing to enter FA with a career WAR in the Javier Baez and Trevor Story range if he plays the next 2 seasons at his career average. They both got 6 years $140 M on the market at the same age (Story) and a year younger (Baez) when Adames hits FA.  I was using the 6 year $140 M deals as a framework for his FA seasons, and that's how I got to the 8 year deal.

[Redd Vencher]

2 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Higher AAV with less years for Adames. 4 years, $75M. 10-15-25-25. All prime. He then hits FA at 32. This team shouldn’t be paying for past-prime performance on extention’s — as a rule, with very few exceptions. 

That isn't higher AAV for less years. You'd be looking at $30+ M for those 2 FA years, and that's not something the Brewers would do. that's a pretty joke offer to Adames.

[SF70]

2 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

That isn't higher AAV for less years. You'd be looking at $30+ M for those 2 FA years, and that's not something the Brewers would do. that's a pretty joke offer to Adames.

Then the team shouldn’t extend him. Age 32-35 years this team shouldn’t be paying for. 

 

[Redd Vencher]

16 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Then the team shouldn’t extend him. Age 32-35 years this team shouldn’t be paying for. 

 

It depends on a bunch of different factors. I still see some 6+ WAR seasons in Willy's future, and I'm willing to lock him in longer to snag those at reasonable rate. 8 years would only take him through his age 34 season. I don't think he's going to completely fall off a cliff in his early 30s that would make me nervous about giving him $18 M per year during those seasons.

[Hopper]

If we have to pay Adames THAT much to keep him, this is why baseball is stacked against teams in our market.

It's pathetic.

If that is what it will take, then the only option is to trade him.  Simple as that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Redd Vencher said:

He's pacing to enter FA with a career WAR in the Javier Baez and Trevor Story range if he plays the next 2 seasons at his career average. They both got 6 years $140 M on the market at the same age (Story) and a year younger (Baez) when Adames hits FA.  I was using the 6 year $140 M deals as a framework for his FA seasons, and that's how I got to the 8 year deal.

But he's not an FA for two more seasons. That in itself lops a couple of years off any potential deal. He gets massive guaranteed money, the Brewers get fewer years, and he enters free agency at a reasonable enough age to get another nice contract.

For a player of Adames' calibre, that's a pretty fair deal all around.

[Redd Vencher]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But he's not an FA for two more seasons. That in itself lops a couple of years off any potential deal. He gets massive guaranteed money, the Brewers get fewer years, and he enters free agency at a reasonable enough age to get another nice contract.

For a player of Adames' calibre, that's a pretty fair deal all around.

I don't think 2 years before FA lops any years off any prospective deal. 2 years before FA means you're more likely to get a discount on those FA years. Any proposed extension is going to need to be at least $100 M to get him locked up, or it doesn't make any sense from Adames' perspective. Looking at comparables, the Cubs offered Baez a $180 M extension 2 years before FA that he ultimately turned down.

[MrTPlush]

I don't really get the Adames hype sometimes...maybe it is just me, but Adames isn't even in the same universe that those peak Baez/Story years were. Both of those guys had pretty long track records. Story had multiple .900+ OPS seasons and Baez had a second place MVP finish plus many great seasons. Those guys had high ceilings and hit them in multiple seasons. 

Adames has had his spurts of elite play...but realistically he has 3 full seasons to his name. An OPS of .735, .818, and last year was .756. There is still a lot of uncertainty on how good he is and if he can consistently do it every year. Giving him $100mil+ sounds like a potential disaster wrapped up in a giftbox. Brewers shouldn't probably avoid giving a SS a contract for his 30s.

[UpandIn]

19 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t want to rain on your fantasy parade about Wendy. She would have been 32 when Molitor left. Maybe she was running a MLB team behind the scenes at that age with no experience, but I doubt it.

 

 

And I hate to rain on yours, but she was literally representing the team at the owners meeting. There wasn't anything "behind the scenes" about it. Also, '92 was Molitor's last year, so it was more '93 and moving forward. 

Either way...she was running the team. Probably deferring to Bando, but her and Laurel Prieb became the face of the Brewers ownership when Selig became interim comish. 

Also...why would this rain on my parade? Do you think this is something I'm celebrating?

19 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The pre-arbitration extensions are few and far in between since Albies and Acuna signed their deals (wonder why).

The Braves literally just signed two more players to large pre-arbitration deals to players with less than 1 year of service time. Strider and Harris. Austin Riley signed last year...don't know if he was super-2, but lets leave him out of this and assume he was. 

I don't get what you argument is though. It was originally, we'd be better off signing Anthony Rizzo through age 40 and now it's players don't sign them...presumably because Albies in particular signed a bad deal? So what? Didn't stop Strider, Harris or on our very own team, Ashby or Peralta...just as Lucroy's extension didn't stop them from signing. 

That first big contract is appealing to teams AND players as it generally guarantees generational wealth and the opportunity, particularly if you'd be 30 by the time that contract is over...to hit free agency again. Obviously not every player is going to sign...but they haven't exactly stopped happening because of the two you cited. 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I don't really get the Adames hype sometimes...maybe it is just me, but Adames isn't even in the same universe that those peak Baez/Story years were. Both of those guys had pretty long track records. Story had multiple .900+ OPS seasons and Baez had a second place MVP finish plus many great seasons. Those guys had high ceilings and hit them in multiple seasons. 

Adames has had his spurts of elite play...but realistically he has 3 full seasons to his name. An OPS of .735, .818, and last year was .756. There is still a lot of uncertainty on how good he is and if he can consistently do it every year. Giving him $100mil+ sounds like a potential disaster wrapped up in a giftbox. Brewers shouldn't probably avoid giving a SS a contract for his 30s.

Agreed. Though, this year his defense really pushed him into the elite SS category. If he can combine last year's offensive production with this year's defense you're looking at a 6/7 WAR player and MVP candidate. But, I would still like to see him actually prove it before giving him $100 mil. plus. Woody and Corbin have earned it more than him to this point. 

[UpandIn]

21 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I think the Brewers should go all out the next few years.  Re-sign Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff.  The young talent in triple A and the projected stud in double A are too good to pass up.  I think it is safe to say that the only other team in Brewer history with this much talent is the '82 Brewers.  

 

Think about it the Brewers have Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Ruiz, and Turang joining an already solid squad.  I know the major and minor leagues lack relievers but the Brewers have lots of 4/5 starters.  Trade them, sign Bieber, and go for it the next few years.  If the payroll goes to $150 million is a problem for Attanasio sell the team.  There will never be a better time for him to sell.

 

Can you imagine the Brewers trotting out Burnes, Bieber, Woodruff, Peralta, and Lauer/Houser.  The NL central is wide open the Brewers should take advantage.  This should make a GM salivate.  

You're talking about about a payroll a lot closer to 180M than 150. 

And I don't know that I want Attanasio to sell the team. There are a LOT of owners who'd buy the team and move them. 

I like watching baseball in Nashville...because they're our AAA  team. A new owner is probably more likely to move a team to Nashville or LV than it is to invest the 400-500M dollars needed by 2030 when the lease is up to maintain Miller Park(or AmFam) or build a new stadium as the life of Miller Park was apparently only meant to be 40-50 years in large part because of the roof and the way it's constructed. I guess the money doesn't need to be spent BY them, but in the not too distant future. 

So if you're a billionaire and you want to buy a team and you're not from Wisconsin, why would you keep the team here? Maybe one of the 4 billionaires in Wisconsin will want to buy the team, but they're all old(as are most billionaires). 

Nashville, LV, Portland, Carolina, either one, they'd probably love a franchise.

 

Anway...obviously signing all three would be great and if we could do it, everyone would. But we don't have the resources for it and it's real unlikely. 5 years with those 3, plus the players you mentioned, Chourio, Quero, Black...and I think we'll find relievers just fine. Uribe looks like he could be a stud, Gasser, whatever, we'll fine 'em. I just don't think it's realistic. 

3 years from now, you'd be conservatively paying ~90 million for Adames, Burnes, Woodruff and Yelich. So then you'd likely just watch the young studs we developed leave and the Brewers would slash payroll and totally rebuild. 

[Robocaller]

22 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Moneyball seems more focused on tomorrow rather than today.

Moneyball is about acquiring undervalued resources. 

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

He's pacing to enter FA with a career WAR in the Javier Baez and Trevor Story range if he plays the next 2 seasons at his career average. They both got 6 years $140 M on the market at the same age (Story) and a year younger (Baez) when Adames hits FA.  I was using the 6 year $140 M deals as a framework for his FA seasons, and that's how I got to the 8 year deal.

And both of those deals look terrible right now and they're a year old. 

Baez had two 6+ War seasons at 25 and 26. Adames best season was 4.4 WAR. 

And Baez turned down 8/168 for an average of 21M per one year before free agency and he was coming off 13 WAR in the previous 2 seasons and an MVP runner up. Story put up even better years at 25 and 26 putting up 13.1 WAR. And again, both look like bad deals right now.

4 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

It depends on a bunch of different factors. I still see some 6+ WAR seasons in Willy's future, and I'm willing to lock him in longer to snag those at reasonable rate. 8 years would only take him through his age 34 season. I don't think he's going to completely fall off a cliff in his early 30s that would make me nervous about giving him $18 M per year during those seasons.

Yeah, I could see Willy putting up 6 WAR...but he hasn't yet. You're comparing him to players who, at the same age, put up MUCH higher war. 

You're also locking him up through age 35, not 34 with the option at age 35. 

 

[UpandIn]

28 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Moneyball is about acquiring undervalued resources. 

The movie was literally about a 102 win team regrouping after losing Giambi(1.137 OPS) and an All-Star CFer Johnny Damon and replacing them with high OBP guys and then winning 103 games. 

 

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Agreed. Though, this year his defense really pushed him into the elite SS category. If he can combine last year's offensive production with this year's defense you're looking at a 6/7 WAR player and MVP candidate. But, I would still like to see him actually prove it before giving him $100 mil. plus. Woody and Corbin have earned it more than him to this point. 

His defense is fantastic…but if that is a huge cause of ones value that is a big red flag for handing out a hefty extension. We just watched Kolton Wongs defense plummet from gold glove to awful in a single year…and at 31 years old.

The other issue is he plays a premium up the middle position. Great now, but how long does he stick there? When he has to move, where does he go?

I feel similar to Lucroy. Glad he is playing fantastic, but I’m not sure I really want him longer than we do now. Let him aging be someone else’s problem. Both the comps (Baez/Story) didn’t exactly have great years to start out their contracts. Not bad by any means, but not as good as you want when typically you only go down from there as the contract plays out.