Would you prefer the Brewers trade Woodruff, Burnes and Adames or keep them?

[UpandIn]

I'm going to add some caveats that you probably don't need. The question's pretty simple, should we trade whomever we can't extend of these three right now for the most likely best possible return, or do you give it one more run and then see if they can get hot like the Phillies did and ride those two aces and maybe some young players like Frelick, Mitchell...and by the end of next year, Uribe, Gasser, who knows who develops, but see if we can make a run. 

Or do we just sell high, get 60-80 years of service time, stop top prospects. 

 

I put together some proposals that I think are reasonable. I suppose most of these deals could be on the table by the trade deadline as injuries, pitchers going down, teams surprisingly competing, they may offer the same or more, but it's more about this year vs next. 

 

So here are what I think are more realistic packages. Do you think we should pull the trigger or not?

Burnes=1 top ~25 prospect, 1 top ~75 2 more top ~100.
Dodgers have been among the teams talked about the most because they have exactly what type of players we're looking for and they have a need.
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/dodgers
This has Miller 40th and Vargas as the 10th rated prospect in the organization(somehow) while Stone is the #90 overall prospect.

So a Dodgers trade would be Bobby Miller(27), Miguel Vargas(44), Ryan Pepiot(#74 Gavin Stone(#77) per MLB.com

The Dodgers need a true ace. They could spent for him or they could trade for him. Burnes is from the area. I think we need to sweeten this deal with maybe a Ruiz or even a Mitchell, but I believe you get at least ONE ace out of this trio and maybe 2 and a dominant reliever. Miller has the makeup of an ace throwing triple digits at times with a mid 90s sinker, 60 slider, 60 change, 55 curve and while his grade is a 55 for control, his walk rates have been very good. Vargas could stick at 3B with a big arm, but probably a 1B. Hits for a high average and per MLB.com, could win multiple batting titles. Stone's upside could be the best prospect of the group while Bruns may have the best pure stuff, but he hasn't pitched above A+ ball. Sits in the upper 90s, touches 100, needs to work on his delivery to realize his potential. Could be a elite closer, but is only 20 years old.
Woodruff ` top ~30, 3 in the top `125 range. 
For fangraphs rankings and projected lineup(for instance, they have Jobe as the #58 overall prospect) you can look here;
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/tigers
The Rangers just graduated several of the top prospects in baseball including a couple cornerstone corner IFers, they signed Javy Beaz, they have young pitchers. They're in a very winnable division and they seem like they need a staff ace and their young players to develop to get them over the hump. 
Det(#38 Jackson Jobe RHP), Wilmer Flores RHP(#100), Ty Madden(Det #4), Ryan Keidler(Det #7 SS/3B).

Willy Adames-1 top ~50, 2 top 150 prospects. 
(Abel is #20 overall by fangraphs).
The Phillies already have about ~170M in payroll commitments, came a couple games away from a WS despite getting very little from their SS. Jean Segura has a 17M Team Option and they're expected to be a team going after a Shortstop this off-season. Willy Adames hitting around Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Schwarber, etc...Bryan Scott can move over to 2B which is a black hole as of now. Abel is in AA and has TOR type stuff. McGarry and Miller are both AAA pitchers with big time velo and stuff, but with command issues or other warts keeping them from realizing their potential...which is why they're ranked where they are. Both throw about ~100, they just need to get it over the plate. The Brewers pitching school does as good a job as anyone at helping these guys figure it out. 
Phillies Mick Abel-RHP(#54), Griff McGarry LHP(Phil #4), Erik Miller(#7)

 

Downside-You probably struggle to win 70 games this next year.

Upside, even though you suck, you get to see Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Gasser, Ashby, Peralta, probably all 4 Dodger prospects, all 3 Phillies prospects, probably 1 or 2 of the Tigers prospects, maybe Black maybe, give Hiura another run. Slash the payroll to ~75M and hopefully they can put that back into the team in ~2024-25 when our current group and the pitchers we acquired should be in sync rather than pressing for the last year or the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames years. Push the payroll up to 160 for a few years if we slash it now.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

I'm going to add some caveats that you probably don't need. The question's pretty simple, should we trade whomever we can't extend of these three right now for the most likely best possible return, or do you give it one more run and then see if they can get hot like the Phillies did and ride those two aces and maybe some young players like Frelick, Mitchell...and by the end of next year, Uribe, Gasser, who knows who develops, but see if we can make a run. 

Or do we just sell high, get 60-80 years of service time, stop top prospects. 

 

I put together some proposals that I think are reasonable. I suppose most of these deals could be on the table by the trade deadline as injuries, pitchers going down, teams surprisingly competing, they may offer the same or more, but it's more about this year vs next. 

 

So here are what I think are more realistic packages. Do you think we should pull the trigger or not?

Burnes=1 top ~25 prospect, 1 top ~75 2 more top ~100.
Dodgers have been among the teams talked about the most because they have exactly what type of players we're looking for and they have a need.
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/dodgers
This has Miller 40th and Vargas as the 10th rated prospect in the organization(somehow) while Stone is the #90 overall prospect.

So a Dodgers trade would be Bobby Miller(27), Miguel Vargas(44), Ryan Pepiot(#74 Gavin Stone(#77) per MLB.com

The Dodgers need a true ace. They could spent for him or they could trade for him. Burnes is from the area. I think we need to sweeten this deal with maybe a Ruiz or even a Mitchell, but I believe you get at least ONE ace out of this trio and maybe 2 and a dominant reliever. Miller has the makeup of an ace throwing triple digits at times with a mid 90s sinker, 60 slider, 60 change, 55 curve and while his grade is a 55 for control, his walk rates have been very good. Vargas could stick at 3B with a big arm, but probably a 1B. Hits for a high average and per MLB.com, could win multiple batting titles. Stone's upside could be the best prospect of the group while Bruns may have the best pure stuff, but he hasn't pitched above A+ ball. Sits in the upper 90s, touches 100, needs to work on his delivery to realize his potential. Could be a elite closer, but is only 20 years old.
Woodruff ` top ~30, 3 in the top `125 range. 
For fangraphs rankings and projected lineup(for instance, they have Jobe as the #58 overall prospect) you can look here;
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/tigers
The Rangers just graduated several of the top prospects in baseball including a couple cornerstone corner IFers, they signed Javy Beaz, they have young pitchers. They're in a very winnable division and they seem like they need a staff ace and their young players to develop to get them over the hump. 
Det(#38 Jackson Jobe RHP), Wilmer Flores RHP(#100), Ty Madden(Det #4), Ryan Keidler(Det #7 SS/3B).

Willy Adames-1 top ~50, 2 top 150 prospects. 
(Abel is #20 overall by fangraphs).
The Phillies already have about ~170M in payroll commitments, came a couple games away from a WS despite getting very little from their SS. Jean Segura has a 17M Team Option and they're expected to be a team going after a Shortstop this off-season. Willy Adames hitting around Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Schwarber, etc...Bryan Scott can move over to 2B which is a black hole as of now. Abel is in AA and has TOR type stuff. McGarry and Miller are both AAA pitchers with big time velo and stuff, but with command issues or other warts keeping them from realizing their potential...which is why they're ranked where they are. Both throw about ~100, they just need to get it over the plate. The Brewers pitching school does as good a job as anyone at helping these guys figure it out. 
Phillies Mick Abel-RHP(#54), Griff McGarry LHP(Phil #4), Erik Miller(#7)

 

Downside-You probably struggle to win 70 games this next year.

Upside, even though you suck, you get to see Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Gasser, Ashby, Peralta, probably all 4 Dodger prospects, all 3 Phillies prospects, probably 1 or 2 of the Tigers prospects, maybe Black maybe, give Hiura another run. Slash the payroll to ~75M and hopefully they can put that back into the team in ~2024-25 when our current group and the pitchers we acquired should be in sync rather than pressing for the last year or the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames years. Push the payroll up to 160 for a few years if we slash it now.

I would trade Burnes to the Dodgers this offseason for Miller, Stone & Vargas. That’s a fair return, and one that actually has a chance of happening, imo. Trying to add Pepiot in addition likely keeps that deal from happening.

Having all 3 being close to big-league ready, is critical to the extension of contention timeline and fixes the organization’s biggest weakness— potential impactful upper minors starting pitching.

Hold Woodruff this offseason, add a veteran starter like Quintana, and try to extend Adames. Less risk with a positional player, plus the majority of contract years would still fall within his prime. 

Woodruff, Peralta, Quintana, Lauer, Ashby and Houser make up the 6 man with Gasser, Small, Miller, Stone at AAA to start the year. Post S2 some can pitch out of the bullpen.

Next offseason the team can trade or hold Woodruff and Lauer depending on the development of the young pitchers.

 

 

[jay87shot]

There would be lots of ways to build trades for these guys, for example if the Mets want Burnes/ they could include Francisco Alvarez who would have the value of a top 25 and top 100 as a top 5 overall prospect. Additionally we could make a trade more like the Mike Clevinger deal (maybe for Woody or Adames) where we get like 6 solid pieces but none are top 50 prospects. We could also get an established MLB player(s) for someone.

Overall your values are good,  I would trade 1, extend 1, keep 1 if possible. Burnes would be the likely trade since his extension will be a ton, I have been torn on who to extend. It might come down to what we would get for Burnes on who to extend if we get better bats extend Woody and if we get better arms extend Willy.

 

[Hopper]

The fans of this team will scream bloody murder if we trade all 3 this off season.

If you want to piss off a large segment of those who buy the tickets and over priced concessions, trade all 3.

I have personally accepted that one of Burnes/Woodruff will probably be gone on opening day, but trading them both, plus our only real star on offense would be an issue with the fan base.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I strongly consider trading one of the starters with the option to move one or both of the other players within the following 12 months based on how the team looks in 2023.

For example, I don't think Adames value today is much different than it will be in July provided he's not injured.

[wibadgers23]

It will be a staggered rebuild or retool, whatever you want to call it. No way they trade everybody in the same offseason. I think Burnes is the likeliest to go this offseason.

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

I would trade Burnes to the Dodgers this offseason for Miller, Stone & Vargas. That’s a fair return, and one that actually has a chance of happening, imo. Trying to add Pepiot in addition likely keeps that deal from happening.

Having all 3 being close to big-league ready, is critical to the extension of contention timeline and fixes the organization’s biggest weakness— potential impactful upper minors starting pitching.

Hold Woodruff this offseason, add a veteran starter like Quintana, and try to extend Adames. Less risk with a positional player, plus the majority of contract years would still fall within his prime. 

Woodruff, Peralta, Quintana, Lauer, Ashby and Houser make up the 6 man with Gasser, Small, Miller, Stone at AAA to start the year. Post S2 some can pitch out of the bullpen.

Next offseason the team can trade or hold Woodruff and Lauer depending on the development of the young pitchers.

 

 

Signing Quintana wouldn't fit with the Brewers trying to save on payroll, as he'll likely sign for what Burnes and Woodruff are going to get paid in arbitration. 

[SF70]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Signing Quintana wouldn't fit with the Brewers trying to save on payroll, as he'll likely sign for what Burnes and Woodruff are going to get paid in arbitration. 

Quintana at $10-$12M per year on a 2 year deal, I’d do, and they absolutely could afford him.

Remember I’m ridding the team of Renfroe and Wongs money as well as Burnes, and if he goes to LAD with Vargas as part of the return, I’m trading  Tellez as well.

So I can sign Quintana, Chafin, and a catcher with the $31M saved.

[Brewcrew82]

38 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Quintana at $10-$12M per year on a 2 year deal, I’d do, and they absolutely could afford him.

Remember I’m ridding the team of Renfroe and Wongs money as well as Burnes, and if he goes to LAD with Vargas as part of the return, I’m trading  Tellez as well.

So I can sign Quintana, Chafin, and a catcher with the $31M saved.

Of course, they could afford him. I guess it depends on whether they want to slash payroll or just gain more flexibility. If the former, then Quintana doesn't make sense, while the later makes it possible.

No way do I trade Renfroe AND Tellez, as that eliminates almost all of your power output aside from Adames. I think they really need to keep Tellez, as he is set to be among the main beneficiaries of the rule changes. Vargas being able to play 3B helps with that and would allow them to rotate Tellez and Yelich at DH. 

[Brewcrew82]

Honestly, I think Lauer could be traded this offseason, as he'll only get more expensive and you ideally don't want to pay him much more than you're already paying him. 

[SF70]

41 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Of course, they could afford him. I guess it depends on whether they want to slash payroll or just gain more flexibility. If the former, then Quintana doesn't make sense, while the later makes it possible.

No way do I trade Renfroe AND Tellez, as that eliminates almost all of your power output aside from Adames. I think they really need to keep Tellez, as he is set to be among the main beneficiaries of the rule changes. Vargas being able to play 3B helps with that and would allow them to rotate Tellez and Yelich at DH. 

Ok, we keep Tellez and his power, which until Wiemer establishes, the lineup can use for sure.

[Hopper]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Of course, they could afford him. I guess it depends on whether they want to slash payroll or just gain more flexibility. If the former, then Quintana doesn't make sense, while the later makes it possible.

No way do I trade Renfroe AND Tellez, as that eliminates almost all of your power output aside from Adames. I think they really need to keep Tellez, as he is set to be among the main beneficiaries of the rule changes. Vargas being able to play 3B helps with that and would allow them to rotate Tellez and Yelich at DH. 

Everything I've read says that Vargas is NOT an option going forward at 3B.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Everything I've read says that Vargas is NOT an option going forward at 3B.

I don't know about that. I've read that he should be able to play average defense at 3B, but that he'd play a better 1B, with the ability to also be installed in the corner OF. And we all know how much this team values defensive versatility.  But I do tend to think that he would play the majority of his time at 1B, with Rowdy mostly DHing against righties and sitting against lefties. 

[Jopal78]

They'll eventually trade all three because none of them is likely forgo their free agency at this point to sign an extension no matter who employs them (Chris Bassitt at 34 years old just declined a 19.5 million dollar option for free agency, so I don't necessarily buy that Woodruff will take an extension because he's 'older' either).

Frankly, the Dodgers don't really trade away their blue chip prospects for veterans unless they're already blocked by someone else on their roster. Jeter Downs was regarded as #44 on the top 100 prospects list but was blocked by Corey Seager at the time he was traded for Betts. Keibert Ruiz was blocked by Will Smith. Josiah Gray was behind Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and the their other major league starting pitchers. The notion of them trading away multiple pitching prospects to get a pitcher doesn't make a lot of sense given their history in building a roster. 

In fact, the Dodgers would be ahead to simply non-tender Cody Bellinger (18.1 million projected for '23), decline their club option on Justin Turner (16 million club option for '23) and redistribute that 34 million dollars in an attempt to  resign Kershaw or whomever else they prefer, then plug in those same young players into their own major league roster. That is the pipeline working and how they stay on top year after year. 

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, SF70 said:

I would trade Burnes to the Dodgers this offseason for Miller, Stone & Vargas. That’s a fair return, and one that actually has a chance of happening, imo. Trying to add Pepiot in addition likely keeps that deal from happening.

Having all 3 being close to big-league ready, is critical to the extension of contention timeline and fixes the organization’s biggest weakness— potential impactful upper minors starting pitching.

Yeah...I kinda went back and forth and had Bruns in there as the 4th pitcher. He's probably more realistic and probably has as much upside. But I think that is probably too much for any player with just 2 years of team control. 
I should have stuck with that because while I didn't run any of these through the simulator, that both feels like too much and it's really not how the Dodgers do things. Especially not with pitchers. They're fine taking a starting pitcher and burning service time having him throw 80 innings out of the BP. 

So Madison Bruns/Walker Buehler. I still like that idea...let him rehab for a year and then IF he comes back by the end of next year like Glasnow did, try and extend him buying out a year of Free Agency. 
I'd also be happy to include another player going back to the Dodgers to facilitate Pepiot or even Bruns as I think you're probably right, Miller, Stone and Vargas is a very fair return for Burnes. I guess it comes down to how bad they want him. 

I also thought about doing the Phillies. They've got Nola and Wheeler, but it's pretty hard to argue against 3 aces. Though that's the exact type of team that overpays for a guy like Burnes in-season if one of those two guys goes down. 

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, Hopper said:

The fans of this team will scream bloody murder if we trade all 3 this off season.

If you want to piss off a large segment of those who buy the tickets and over priced concessions, trade all 3.

I have personally accepted that one of Burnes/Woodruff will probably be gone on opening day, but trading them both, plus our only real star on offense would be an issue with the fan base.

Fans are always upset when the season ends with the exception of 2008...and that was just the result of how insanely bad Wendy Selig-Prieb ran this team into the ground after taking over in the early 90's and immediately running out one of the two HOFers the Brewers ever produced out of town coming off a competitive year, and the other when they lost in 7 games in the NLCS because.

Fans are happy with winning. They'd get over it if this team made the right trades, developed players and then put the money back into the team by locking up the young players they acquired. 

I'd start by extending Vargas almost immediately to a 7/82M type deal with a couple TOs(if he takes it). 
 

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

Everything I've read says that Vargas is NOT an option going forward at 3B.

I think that's overstating it. Fangraphs has him as their projected opening day starter next year at 3B. The Dodgers apparently believe internally that he can handle playing 3B. Most scouting reports suggest he'll end up having to move off 3B as he fills out because he's not a great athlete, but he has a big am and good hands.

He's MLB ready and will almost certainly be on a team next year and the Dodgers had him play the majority of his games at 3B last year and only 3 games at 1B. So that lines up with the reports that the Dodgers believe he can handle 3rd. At least for now. If the Dodgers thought he was "NOT an option going forward at 3B," it'd stand to reason...they'd get him more time at 1B(where they don't really have a long term solution).

[Jopal78]

34 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Fans are always upset when the season ends with the exception of 2008...and that was just the result of how insanely bad Wendy Selig-Prieb ran this team into the ground after taking over in the early 90's and immediately running out one of the two HOFers the Brewers ever produced out of town coming off a competitive year, and the other when they lost in 7 games in the NLCS because.

Fans are happy with winning. They'd get over it if this team made the right trades, developed players and then put the money back into the team by locking up the young players they acquired. 

I'd start by extending Vargas almost immediately to a 7/82M type deal with a couple TOs(if he takes it). 
 

I think that's overstating it. Fangraphs has him as their projected opening day starter next year at 3B. The Dodgers apparently believe internally that he can handle playing 3B. Most scouting reports suggest he'll end up having to move off 3B as he fills out because he's not a great athlete, but he has a big am and good hands.

He's MLB ready and will almost certainly be on a team next year and the Dodgers had him play the majority of his games at 3B last year and only 3 games at 1B. So that lines up with the reports that the Dodgers believe he can handle 3rd. At least for now. If the Dodgers thought he was "NOT an option going forward at 3B," it'd stand to reason...they'd get him more time at 1B(where they don't really have a long term solution).

Wendy Selig-Prieb didn't become the Brewers Team President until '98-- Molitor's last year in the majors.  The Brewers were terrible for years before she even got there. As a 38 year old, who's dad owned the team I'm not so sure how much autonomy she really had running the organization anyways.

Back on topic, these trade ideas are fun to think about but, handing Vargas an 82 million dollar guarantee with basically no major league experience  doesn't make much sense for Milwaukee. They could probably sign Anthony Rizzo for that much money and be better off in the short run, and the long run. 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, jay87shot said:

There would be lots of ways to build trades for these guys, for example if the Mets want Burnes/ they could include Francisco Alvarez who would have the value of a top 25 and top 100 as a top 5 overall prospect. Additionally we could make a trade more like the Mike Clevinger deal (maybe for Woody or Adames) where we get like 6 solid pieces but none are top 50 prospects. We could also get an established MLB player(s) for someone.

Overall your values are good,  I would trade 1, extend 1, keep 1 if possible. Burnes would be the likely trade since his extension will be a ton, I have been torn on who to extend. It might come down to what we would get for Burnes on who to extend if we get better bats extend Woody and if we get better arms extend Willy.

 

Exactly. Maybe I didn't articulate this as well as I could have. 

The trade packages aren't meant to be taken as gospel. They're outlines. The type of value you'd be expected to get back for these three players. 

Also, I was trying to ask IF you can't extend one(you try and extend all 3, Burnes, Woodruff and then Adames in that order) you either trade all 3 now or you keep all three together. 

It's purely academic as the Brewers aren't trading all 3 their 3 best players in the same off-season with 2 years of team control, but it was meant to gauge if fans on this board thought would rather maximize the return right now or go for it another year. 

But absolutely, it doesn't have to be Milller/Stone/Vargas/Pepiot for Burnes(which is again, probably an overpay and the Brewers would have to send something back or take a less 4th prospect in return for Pepiot). Just a package of that type of value. 

As far as your Alvarez idea, I haven't really watched him and don't know much about him, but it feels like the flameout rate for catches is a bit high. Of course he's a guy with a bat that'll play all over the place, but I'd prefer to spread out and mitigate the risk a bit. So if you get back the #1 prospect in baseball...you're lucky if you're getting anything other than a couple of lottery tickets after that. That makes sense if he's as good as people are saying, I'm just a bit risk adverse. 

[Robocaller]

My preference would be to bring them back for next season, and move them at the deadline, if we're out of the race, or next offseason.
My second choice would be to move all of them right now, assuming  the return was satisfactory.

Caveats:

1) Of course, if any of them are willing to sign a reasonable contract, you do so. It would be great to extend them 2 FA years, but I don't see them willing to do that.
2) Of course you trade any of them if the offer is extraordinary.

 

[Hopper]

I see a lot of people saying to keep them until the deadline, and if we are out of it, trade them.

Ok, so what if we are just hanging around, not winning the division outright, in the mix for a wildcard, but it could go either way, then what?

Set us up for another Hader ordeal?

Safest bet is to trade one now, probably Burnes for the best return, try to extend one or both of Woodruff and Adames, if not, then worry about it next off season.

We can't think about the deadline because there are just too many factors at play.

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Wendy Selig-Prieb didn't become the Brewers Team President until '98-- Molitor's last year in the majors.  The Brewers were terrible for years before she even got there. As a 38 year old, who's dad owned the team I'm not so sure how much autonomy she really had running the organization anyways.

Back on topic, these trade ideas are fun to think about but, handing Vargas an 82 million dollar guarantee with basically no major league experience  doesn't make much sense for Milwaukee. They could probably sign Anthony Rizzo for that much money and be better off in the short run, and the long run. 

That's just when it became official. Selig has ALMOST no day to day involvement in the Brewers organization when he was the interim commissioner. 

Wendy Selig-Prieb, Laurel Prieb and Bando were running the day to day operations of the Brewers...it just wasn't made official until Selig was officially named commissioner.

SHE represented the franchise at the owners meetings starting in 1992. So when she was officially named is of little consequence to me, she was the one calling the shots. 

Bud Selig didn't even know there was a problem with Molitor until a week or two before they had to decide to offer him arbitration and he stepped in at the last minute and tried to solve the problem, but the problems had been done. 

 

And I do not agree paying Rizzo would be a better idea than extending a young prospect. Vargas is projected to be worth nearly 1 more WAR next year...must less in 7 years when Rizzo(33) is 40 years old and Vargas(22) is 29.

OBVIOUSLY these signings would come a couple months into the season, but it's hardly unprecedented. It's how the Braves have locked up half of their everyday lineup through 2030. 

The point is to sign the young players to team friendly deals early in their careers.

[Robocaller]

4 minutes ago, Hopper said:

I see a lot of people saying to keep them until the deadline, and if we are out of it, trade them.

Ok, so what if we are just hanging around, not winning the division outright, in the mix for a wildcard, but it could go either way, then what?

Set us up for another Hader ordeal?

Safest bet is to trade one now, probably Burnes for the best return, try to extend one or both of Woodruff and Adames, if not, then worry about it next off season.

We can't think about the deadline because there are just too many factors at play.

It doesn't have to be at the deadline if there is no good offer. Then you wait until the offseason.

I really don't think it will be a hard decision when the time comes. 

[UpandIn]

6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

My preference would be to bring them back for next season, and move them at the deadline, if we're out of the race, or next offseason.
My second choice would be to move all of them right now, assuming  the return was satisfactory.

Caveats:

1) Of course, if any of them are willing to sign a reasonable contract, you do so. It would be great to extend them 2 FA years, but I don't see them willing to do that.
2) Of course you trade any of them if the offer is extraordinary.

 

Yeah, I don't think there's going to be much of a difference in trading them this off-season or next trade deadline. As others have pointed out, at the trade deadline, you get teams who've had injuries, who've had surprisingly good seasons and they're willing to pay more. 

And of course I agree, extend them if they'll accept. I'd go 3 FA years for the pitchers. 

As for #2, I think the more I look at it, the proposed deal from the Dodgers, would probably be too good of a deal to pass up(which also means they're likely not making it). 

[UpandIn]

6 minutes ago, Hopper said:

I see a lot of people saying to keep them until the deadline, and if we are out of it, trade them.

Ok, so what if we are just hanging around, not winning the division outright, in the mix for a wildcard, but it could go either way, then what?

Set us up for another Hader ordeal?

Safest bet is to trade one now, probably Burnes for the best return, try to extend one or both of Woodruff and Adames, if not, then worry about it next off season.

We can't think about the deadline because there are just too many factors at play.

I'm not following, are you saying for the purpose of this hypothetical we can't think about the deadline? Because that makes sense. But if you're saying in reality waiting until the deadline creates a difficult scenario, then I don't think that's an issue. 

I don't see this being like Hader. We were 3-4 games up when we traded Hader, he's a reliever, so inherently less valuable than an ace or a ~5 WAR SS. 

 

But for the purpose of this hypothetical, if they're in the mix for a wildcard, I guess it'd depend. Are the rookies you hoped would come in and produce flailing? Is your BP leaking? Or did we get off to a 20-30 start and then get hot and work our way back into playoff consideration?

I should have clarified this off-season/deadline, but I THINK that question will answer itself. What I hope is that if we're in that position, the same one were this past year...we're not playing well, we're trending in the wrong direction, you make the trade. More than anything, if you're getting a massive offer, I think that takes care of itself. 

8 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

It doesn't have to be at the deadline if there is no good offer. Then you wait until the offseason.

I really don't think it will be a hard decision when the time comes. 

If we're in 1st place, but trending in the wrong direction and instead of trading a closer, you trade Corbin Burnes, the fallout of that would be...absolutely awful. So I think that'd be a difficult decision. 

That's the only time I think it'd be a hard decision. You get a good offer and you're on the brink of contending. 

But yeah, if you don't get a good offer, you don't make the deal. I don't think that'll be an issue. I think a good GM will just have to divorce himself from emotion as Stearns did. Didn't work out in his case, but you set a price, they agree or you start the process of quietly shopping them(teams I'm sure have already called and inquired). Unless Attanasio, snake bitten from getting blamed last year interferes, it should go smoothly. 

I'm still fairly confident that we'll extend one of the two pitchers. With a significant increase in money via revenue sharing and TV deals, we really should be able to push the payroll up. So IF Burnes accepts 5/130(Which I know people don't think he will, I think he might) I don't think that'd cripple the Brewers or be a bad move. 

But I also would discourage Attanasio from digging deeper into some of the contracts I've seen thrown around(6/200 was one...I think that's WAY too much as we're taking the risk and we'll pay him ~30M the next 2 years...so then you're paying around 4/170 and that's basically what he'd likely get as a FA this year IF the trend continues where the AAV for pitchers keeps going up and the length of the contract goes down). 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

I think the Brewers should go all out the next few years.  Re-sign Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff.  The young talent in triple A and the projected stud in double A are too good to pass up.  I think it is safe to say that the only other team in Brewer history with this much talent is the '82 Brewers.  

 

Think about it the Brewers have Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Ruiz, and Turang joining an already solid squad.  I know the major and minor leagues lack relievers but the Brewers have lots of 4/5 starters.  Trade them, sign Bieber, and go for it the next few years.  If the payroll goes to $150 million is a problem for Attanasio sell the team.  There will never be a better time for him to sell.

 

Can you imagine the Brewers trotting out Burnes, Bieber, Woodruff, Peralta, and Lauer/Houser.  The NL central is wide open the Brewers should take advantage.  This should make a GM salivate.