Article: Is Now the Right Time to Trade Corbin Burnes?

[Brock Beauchamp]

47 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Cause he failed so totally at being a GM that he had no place else to run. 

I’m sure there are loads of former front office execs I’d love to hear talk about baseball. As it turns out, Jim Bowden ain’t one of them, yet he’s the one with the job. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

47 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Cause he failed so totally at being a GM that he had no place else to run. 

I’m sure there are loads of former front office execs I’d love to hear talk about baseball. As it turns out, Jim Bowden ain’t one of them, yet he’s the one with the job. 

[Lajitas]

On 11/4/2022 at 5:00 PM, Robocaller said:

That would be something like 12, 18, and 30+M over those 3 years. That seems like an underpay for Burnes who probably would like a 5+ year contract.

Only five starting pitchers in MLB make $30 M or more.  $30 M plus for Burnes is an overpay.  

[Lajitas]

On 11/4/2022 at 5:00 PM, Robocaller said:

That would be something like 12, 18, and 30+M over those 3 years. That seems like an underpay for Burnes who probably would like a 5+ year contract.

Only five starting pitchers in MLB make $30 M or more.  $30 M plus for Burnes is an overpay.  

[Lajitas]

On 11/4/2022 at 2:24 PM, Hopper said:

I just don't think either will sign those deals.  Burnes is going to get a BIG payday if he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next 2 years, I mean a BIG payday!  There isn't a chance in hell he takes that offer.  I don't think we get Woodruff for less than 25 million per season either.

And I don't see Burnes getting a BIG payday.  He'll get in the $24 M-$25 M per year, but he ain't getting $30 M plus.

[Lajitas]

On 11/4/2022 at 2:24 PM, Hopper said:

I just don't think either will sign those deals.  Burnes is going to get a BIG payday if he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next 2 years, I mean a BIG payday!  There isn't a chance in hell he takes that offer.  I don't think we get Woodruff for less than 25 million per season either.

And I don't see Burnes getting a BIG payday.  He'll get in the $24 M-$25 M per year, but he ain't getting $30 M plus.

[Lajitas]

The whole point of signing a player to an extension is the player gives up future earning potential in exchange for salary security now.  If Burnes' maximum arbitration number for next season is $18 M, it is monumentally stupid for the Brewers to sign him now for that $18 M.  Because that number can only go down in the coming year.  If he projects to earn $30 M in free agency in two years, it's stupid to sign him to that $30 M now.  Because you can just sign him at that time for the $30 M, if you're going to pay it.  Or he'll cost less than that $30 M.

An extension for Burnes earning him 11/16/25/25/25 is a very reasonable extension for him.  That's $102 M.

[Lajitas]

The whole point of signing a player to an extension is the player gives up future earning potential in exchange for salary security now.  If Burnes' maximum arbitration number for next season is $18 M, it is monumentally stupid for the Brewers to sign him now for that $18 M.  Because that number can only go down in the coming year.  If he projects to earn $30 M in free agency in two years, it's stupid to sign him to that $30 M now.  Because you can just sign him at that time for the $30 M, if you're going to pay it.  Or he'll cost less than that $30 M.

An extension for Burnes earning him 11/16/25/25/25 is a very reasonable extension for him.  That's $102 M.

[sveumrules]

Obviously Corbin has two years before hitting free agency, so who knows what his platform years will end up looking like, or if he even hits FA at all, but I thought it might be interesting to compare his numbers since 2020 to the platform years of the pitchers who have signed big money deals somewhat recently.

Burnes, 2nd Max & Bauer all included 2020, and Strasburg had injuries so their splits are three years, while everyone else is two year splits before hitting FA to keep the IP totals in the same ballpark. Year (age) are for the first year of the big deal…

Burnes: 2025 (30) | 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR 

Cole: 9/324 | 2020 (29) | 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 

Stras: 7/245 | 2020 (31) | 514 IP | 73 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 14.7 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR 

Price: 7/217 | 2016 (30) | 468 IP | 74 ERA- | 71 FIP- | 11.1 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR 

Kersh: 7/215 | 2014 (26) | 463 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.1 rWAR | 13.2 fWAR 

Max: 7/210 | 2015 (30) | 434 IP | 77 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 11.3 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR

Zack: 6/207 | 2016 (32) | 425 IP | 61 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 14.1 rWAR | 9.8 fWAR 

Max: 3/130 | 2022 (37) | 419 IP | 65 ERA-| 64 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 13.7 fWAR 

Bauer: 3/102 | 2021 (30) | 457 IP | 70 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 12.4 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR 

[sveumrules]

Obviously Corbin has two years before hitting free agency, so who knows what his platform years will end up looking like, or if he even hits FA at all, but I thought it might be interesting to compare his numbers since 2020 to the platform years of the pitchers who have signed big money deals somewhat recently.

Burnes, 2nd Max & Bauer all included 2020, and Strasburg had injuries so their splits are three years, while everyone else is two year splits before hitting FA to keep the IP totals in the same ballpark. Year (age) are for the first year of the big deal…

Burnes: 2025 (30) | 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR 

Cole: 9/324 | 2020 (29) | 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 

Stras: 7/245 | 2020 (31) | 514 IP | 73 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 14.7 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR 

Price: 7/217 | 2016 (30) | 468 IP | 74 ERA- | 71 FIP- | 11.1 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR 

Kersh: 7/215 | 2014 (26) | 463 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.1 rWAR | 13.2 fWAR 

Max: 7/210 | 2015 (30) | 434 IP | 77 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 11.3 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR

Zack: 6/207 | 2016 (32) | 425 IP | 61 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 14.1 rWAR | 9.8 fWAR 

Max: 3/130 | 2022 (37) | 419 IP | 65 ERA-| 64 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 13.7 fWAR 

Bauer: 3/102 | 2021 (30) | 457 IP | 70 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 12.4 rWAR | 11.5 fWAR 

[sveumrules]

For a little more context on how Corbin’s 2020-22 stacks up with other dominant stretches of recent vintage, here is my top ten (plus one) 400-ish IP runs over the last ten or so seasons…

01. deGrom 18-19: 421 IP | 52 ERA- | 55 FIP- | 17.0 rWAR | 16.0 fWAR

02. Krshw 14-15: 431 IP | 54 ERA- | 51 FIP- | 16.4 rWAR | 16.5 fWAR

03. Vrlndr 11-12: 489 IP | 60 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.5 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR

04. Max 17-18: 421 IP | 59 ERA- | 65 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR

05. Burnes 20-22: 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR 

06. Sale 17-18: 372 IP | 57 ERA- | 53 FIP- | 13.8 rWAR | 13.8 fWAR

07. Cole 18-19: 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 

08. Kluber 17-18: 418 IP | 58 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 12.7 fWAR

09. Arrieta 14-15: 385 IP | 55 ERA- | 61 FIP- | 14.3 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR

10. Wheeler 20-22: 437 IP | 67 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.3 fWAR 

11. Jose 13-16: 471 IP | 68 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 13.9 rWAR | 14.5 rWAR

[sveumrules]

For a little more context on how Corbin’s 2020-22 stacks up with other dominant stretches of recent vintage, here is my top ten (plus one) 400-ish IP runs over the last ten or so seasons…

01. deGrom 18-19: 421 IP | 52 ERA- | 55 FIP- | 17.0 rWAR | 16.0 fWAR

02. Krshw 14-15: 431 IP | 54 ERA- | 51 FIP- | 16.4 rWAR | 16.5 fWAR

03. Vrlndr 11-12: 489 IP | 60 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 16.5 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR

04. Max 17-18: 421 IP | 59 ERA- | 65 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR

05. Burnes 20-22: 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR 

06. Sale 17-18: 372 IP | 57 ERA- | 53 FIP- | 13.8 rWAR | 13.8 fWAR

07. Cole 18-19: 412 IP | 63 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.4 fWAR 

08. Kluber 17-18: 418 IP | 58 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 15.2 rWAR | 12.7 fWAR

09. Arrieta 14-15: 385 IP | 55 ERA- | 61 FIP- | 14.3 rWAR | 12.3 fWAR

10. Wheeler 20-22: 437 IP | 67 ERA- | 66 FIP- | 13.6 rWAR | 13.3 fWAR 

11. Jose 13-16: 471 IP | 68 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 13.9 rWAR | 14.5 rWAR

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Only five starting pitchers in MLB make $30 M or more.  $30 M plus for Burnes is an overpay.  

Burnes is certainly top 3 in MLB. And $30 to buy out a single FA year is extremely optimistic. He'll want longer.

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Only five starting pitchers in MLB make $30 M or more.  $30 M plus for Burnes is an overpay.  

Burnes is certainly top 3 in MLB. And $30 to buy out a single FA year is extremely optimistic. He'll want longer.

[Robocaller]

8 hours ago, Lajitas said:

The whole point of signing a player to an extension is the player gives up future earning potential in exchange for salary security now.  If Burnes' maximum arbitration number for next season is $18 M, it is monumentally stupid for the Brewers to sign him now for that $18 M.  Because that number can only go down in the coming year.  If he projects to earn $30 M in free agency in two years, it's stupid to sign him to that $30 M now.  Because you can just sign him at that time for the $30 M, if you're going to pay it.  Or he'll cost less than that $30 M.

An extension for Burnes earning him 11/16/25/25/25 is a very reasonable extension for him.  That's $102 M.

Your logic only works if every player went year-to-year with their contracts. And even then, pretty poorly, as many teams would be fine with a one-year overpay.
So, I guess it doesn't work at all.

 

[Robocaller]

8 hours ago, Lajitas said:

The whole point of signing a player to an extension is the player gives up future earning potential in exchange for salary security now.  If Burnes' maximum arbitration number for next season is $18 M, it is monumentally stupid for the Brewers to sign him now for that $18 M.  Because that number can only go down in the coming year.  If he projects to earn $30 M in free agency in two years, it's stupid to sign him to that $30 M now.  Because you can just sign him at that time for the $30 M, if you're going to pay it.  Or he'll cost less than that $30 M.

An extension for Burnes earning him 11/16/25/25/25 is a very reasonable extension for him.  That's $102 M.

Your logic only works if every player went year-to-year with their contracts. And even then, pretty poorly, as many teams would be fine with a one-year overpay.
So, I guess it doesn't work at all.

 

[UpandIn]

12 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

Pat attention to WHAT? You STILL haven't made a coherent argument as to why Gunnar Henderson will not be a top 10 SS prospect over the next 6 years. 

What point have you made? That we don't ABSOLUTELY know what he'll do over the next 6 years? Great. You don't know what with literally anyone. 

Christian Yelich put up the best two year stretch in Brewers history. Came back and hit .205.

The absurdity of this argument would be like me pointing out that in 2021 Walker Buehler was worth 6.6 WAR and Burnes was worth 5.6 and now Walker Buehler is out for the year. 

You want to "pay attention," then look at what prospects the caliber of Henderson do, especially after performing at the MLB level. 

 

Feels like you're being a contrarian just...simply for the sake of being a contrarian. The consensus among Scouts and Executives have him as one of the top 2-3 prospects in baseball and he's already shown he's not overmatched by MLB pitching(yes, "but Hiura"). 

He's also an elite defensive player.

[UpandIn]

12 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

I don' think it is. I think it's going to be very close to years and AAV. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don' think it is. I think it's going to be very close to years and AAV. 

I don't see him getting a third year, especially in the same breath as deGrom only getting two. Even if you believe Verlander will get a third year, those two contracts don't make a lot of sense alongside one another.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Congratulations to @Tim Muma for writing the first story to receive 100 comments on Brewer Fanatic!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Congratulations to @Tim Muma for writing the first story to receive 100 comments on Brewer Fanatic!

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't see him getting a third year, especially in the same breath as deGrom only getting two. Even if you believe Verlander will get a third year, those two contracts don't make a lot of sense alongside one another.

I think deGrom gets the shorter contract because he wants the shorter deal. Maybe he'll get a 5/200 with a PO after the 2nd year. I don't know. 

Verlander on the other hand, I think he'll want the longer deal and he's showing no signs of regression. It also falls in line with pitchers getting shorter deals with higher AAV. New TV money coming in(not NFL type money, but more) and I don't think Verlander has trouble getting ~40AAV and 3 years. 

Now if deGrom wants a longer deal, I'm sure he'll get it. Beyond those top 2, I think Rodon is pretty accurate and then I think Bowden is...well, typical Bowden. Diaz is looking for 100M and I think he'll get it. He'll set the record for a reliever I would think and being on the Mets already, I think it's just that much more of a given. Maybe he comes in short of 100. 

I don't think you can get Senga 3/72. That seems like too much, but for a FA pitcher without a posting fee...and one who throws 100 with a plus-plus splitter(apparently, obviously I've just seen a couple pitches from Twitter). 

 

BUT-If you think that is ridiculous(which I'd understand, but disagree with). Did you see Keith Law's top 50 Free Agent list?

Carlos Correa. Ok, 28 year old franchise SS, played and played well in several post-seasons.
Trea Turner #2...alright. Makes sense. He's older, relies on speed, not the defender.
#3 Dansby Swanson...

If you just read his top 3, you'd think he forgot about that guy in NY who just put up one of the top offensive seasons in MLB HISTORY. 
Lots of nonsense after that. 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't see him getting a third year, especially in the same breath as deGrom only getting two. Even if you believe Verlander will get a third year, those two contracts don't make a lot of sense alongside one another.

I think deGrom gets the shorter contract because he wants the shorter deal. Maybe he'll get a 5/200 with a PO after the 2nd year. I don't know. 

Verlander on the other hand, I think he'll want the longer deal and he's showing no signs of regression. It also falls in line with pitchers getting shorter deals with higher AAV. New TV money coming in(not NFL type money, but more) and I don't think Verlander has trouble getting ~40AAV and 3 years. 

Now if deGrom wants a longer deal, I'm sure he'll get it. Beyond those top 2, I think Rodon is pretty accurate and then I think Bowden is...well, typical Bowden. Diaz is looking for 100M and I think he'll get it. He'll set the record for a reliever I would think and being on the Mets already, I think it's just that much more of a given. Maybe he comes in short of 100. 

I don't think you can get Senga 3/72. That seems like too much, but for a FA pitcher without a posting fee...and one who throws 100 with a plus-plus splitter(apparently, obviously I've just seen a couple pitches from Twitter). 

 

BUT-If you think that is ridiculous(which I'd understand, but disagree with). Did you see Keith Law's top 50 Free Agent list?

Carlos Correa. Ok, 28 year old franchise SS, played and played well in several post-seasons.
Trea Turner #2...alright. Makes sense. He's older, relies on speed, not the defender.
#3 Dansby Swanson...

If you just read his top 3, you'd think he forgot about that guy in NY who just put up one of the top offensive seasons in MLB HISTORY. 
Lots of nonsense after that. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

So, about that Edwin Diaz contract estimate…

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

So, about that Edwin Diaz contract estimate…