Article: Is Now the Right Time to Trade Corbin Burnes?

[Robocaller]

22 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

And just 5 minutes ago you were arguing if the 2021 season was last season or two seasons ago. 

Seems to me you're enjoy arguing pointless issues while willfully ignoring the very clear point being made and in doing so, sidetrack a discussion. 

While acknowledging that much of the world is Gray, I cherish and defend those things which are black and white.

[Robocaller]

22 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

And just 5 minutes ago you were arguing if the 2021 season was last season or two seasons ago. 

Seems to me you're enjoy arguing pointless issues while willfully ignoring the very clear point being made and in doing so, sidetrack a discussion. 

While acknowledging that much of the world is Gray, I cherish and defend those things which are black and white.

[Brock Beauchamp]

53 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

It really is though. What other pitcher has gotten 9 years and 300M?

In fact, I don't think a pitcher has gotten 7 in the last couple years. 

They're usually 5 or 6 years now. 

And I do not agree Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball and I don't think it's particularly close. After him there are a number of pitchers you could argue are better than Burnes(Wheeler being one, Scherzer...Verlander among them). 

Sure. But if we're talking about best starting pitcher close to free agency, deGrom hasn't pitched even 100 innings in three years.

Burnes pitched nearly as many innings in 2022 (202) as deGrom has in the past three seasons combined (224).

If I’m pushing all the chips to the middle of the table, I’m betting on Burnes. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

53 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

It really is though. What other pitcher has gotten 9 years and 300M?

In fact, I don't think a pitcher has gotten 7 in the last couple years. 

They're usually 5 or 6 years now. 

And I do not agree Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball and I don't think it's particularly close. After him there are a number of pitchers you could argue are better than Burnes(Wheeler being one, Scherzer...Verlander among them). 

Sure. But if we're talking about best starting pitcher close to free agency, deGrom hasn't pitched even 100 innings in three years.

Burnes pitched nearly as many innings in 2022 (202) as deGrom has in the past three seasons combined (224).

If I’m pushing all the chips to the middle of the table, I’m betting on Burnes. 

[UpandIn]

47 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Sure. But if we're talking about best starting pitcher close to free agency, deGrom hasn't pitched even 100 innings in three years.

Burnes pitched nearly as many innings in 2022 (202) as deGrom has in the past three seasons combined (224).

If I’m pushing all the chips to the middle of the table, I’m betting on Burnes. 

Well...one of those years was 2020, so that's really not meaningful. 

He's Jacob deGrom. You might take him over Burnes, but he's healthy...and I suspect you'd be in the overwhelming minority on that. 

I love Burnes. He's great. deGrom is in a league of his own however. 

It's 11.4 WAR vs 8.5 WAR since 2020...and again, deGrom WAS injured much of that time. 

The other has been in his prime and won a Cy Young. That in and of itself is insane. deGrom is all the way back, averaging 99 MPH on his FB again. There's just no comp for him. If he hadn't come back or was still having shoulder issues, absolutely, the risk would be too great. But he came back from a stress fracture in his shoulder and was as dominant as ever. 

deGrom has allowed 1 or fewer run in almost HALF of his starts...for his entire career. That is...incomprehensible. 

[UpandIn]

47 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Sure. But if we're talking about best starting pitcher close to free agency, deGrom hasn't pitched even 100 innings in three years.

Burnes pitched nearly as many innings in 2022 (202) as deGrom has in the past three seasons combined (224).

If I’m pushing all the chips to the middle of the table, I’m betting on Burnes. 

Well...one of those years was 2020, so that's really not meaningful. 

He's Jacob deGrom. You might take him over Burnes, but he's healthy...and I suspect you'd be in the overwhelming minority on that. 

I love Burnes. He's great. deGrom is in a league of his own however. 

It's 11.4 WAR vs 8.5 WAR since 2020...and again, deGrom WAS injured much of that time. 

The other has been in his prime and won a Cy Young. That in and of itself is insane. deGrom is all the way back, averaging 99 MPH on his FB again. There's just no comp for him. If he hadn't come back or was still having shoulder issues, absolutely, the risk would be too great. But he came back from a stress fracture in his shoulder and was as dominant as ever. 

deGrom has allowed 1 or fewer run in almost HALF of his starts...for his entire career. That is...incomprehensible. 

[BrewFan130]

I don’t see Burnes going anywhere before 2023 mid-season. It gives the Brewers a chance to feel out their competitiveness and ability to compete for the post season and I also think you get more for players in trades when other teams have the need in that moment versus the off-season when there’s no wins and losses on the board. 
the other questions is really for Brewers management and that is do they think they can compete for a World Series in the  next 2 seasons and if not then they need to make a deal

[BrewFan130]

I don’t see Burnes going anywhere before 2023 mid-season. It gives the Brewers a chance to feel out their competitiveness and ability to compete for the post season and I also think you get more for players in trades when other teams have the need in that moment versus the off-season when there’s no wins and losses on the board. 
the other questions is really for Brewers management and that is do they think they can compete for a World Series in the  next 2 seasons and if not then they need to make a deal

[UpandIn]

52 minutes ago, BrewFan130 said:

I don’t see Burnes going anywhere before 2023 mid-season. It gives the Brewers a chance to feel out their competitiveness and ability to compete for the post season and I also think you get more for players in trades when other teams have the need in that moment versus the off-season when there’s no wins and losses on the board. 
the other questions is really for Brewers management and that is do they think they can compete for a World Series in the  next 2 seasons and if not then they need to make a deal

It's not logical...getting more value when you have 1.5 years of team control vs 2, but I agree with you. 

Take...any number of teams who've been in long droughts or desperately want to win a WS. Maybe the Angels jump out to a 60-40 start next year. Ohtani is a pending FA they're trying to re-sign, they've hit on a bunch of prospects who are having big years, or the Rangers after their Fa splurge find themselves in the same position with some of those promising young arms working their way up, plus the teams that come into the season with a strong rotation that loses a key arm due to injury...Houston, LAD, NYY, Toronto(particularly the later). 

That's when I could see an overpay. 

Conversely, if Sal Frelick comes up and he's slashing .300/.380/.430 and Yelich is back to .280./.370./500  without the shift, Turang...not lighting the world on fire, but he's getting on base. .270/.340;/.300 while paying elite defense at what'll likely be 2B and we're up 4-5 games, Ashby, Peralta, Lauer throwing the ball well...then it's hard to justify a trade. 

This team could be a legitimate WS contender...it could be a middling playoff caliber team. There's no doubt that you can win no matter what if you get in, but...there's a difference between being a team with an elite pitching staff, a good lineup with table setters, middle of the order hitters and then flawed bottom of the order hitters like the Dodgers...and a team like the Phillies. Either can win with these short series, the fluky nature of baseball, but are you better 24 years of top ~100 prospects and maybe a couple of true difference makers on that distinction? I think they know they CAN win a WS. But again, is it worth it to go for it when you need to upset 3-4 teams to win it or if you're one of the favorites. 

 

Anyway, good post, I agree. 

 

[UpandIn]

52 minutes ago, BrewFan130 said:

I don’t see Burnes going anywhere before 2023 mid-season. It gives the Brewers a chance to feel out their competitiveness and ability to compete for the post season and I also think you get more for players in trades when other teams have the need in that moment versus the off-season when there’s no wins and losses on the board. 
the other questions is really for Brewers management and that is do they think they can compete for a World Series in the  next 2 seasons and if not then they need to make a deal

It's not logical...getting more value when you have 1.5 years of team control vs 2, but I agree with you. 

Take...any number of teams who've been in long droughts or desperately want to win a WS. Maybe the Angels jump out to a 60-40 start next year. Ohtani is a pending FA they're trying to re-sign, they've hit on a bunch of prospects who are having big years, or the Rangers after their Fa splurge find themselves in the same position with some of those promising young arms working their way up, plus the teams that come into the season with a strong rotation that loses a key arm due to injury...Houston, LAD, NYY, Toronto(particularly the later). 

That's when I could see an overpay. 

Conversely, if Sal Frelick comes up and he's slashing .300/.380/.430 and Yelich is back to .280./.370./500  without the shift, Turang...not lighting the world on fire, but he's getting on base. .270/.340;/.300 while paying elite defense at what'll likely be 2B and we're up 4-5 games, Ashby, Peralta, Lauer throwing the ball well...then it's hard to justify a trade. 

This team could be a legitimate WS contender...it could be a middling playoff caliber team. There's no doubt that you can win no matter what if you get in, but...there's a difference between being a team with an elite pitching staff, a good lineup with table setters, middle of the order hitters and then flawed bottom of the order hitters like the Dodgers...and a team like the Phillies. Either can win with these short series, the fluky nature of baseball, but are you better 24 years of top ~100 prospects and maybe a couple of true difference makers on that distinction? I think they know they CAN win a WS. But again, is it worth it to go for it when you need to upset 3-4 teams to win it or if you're one of the favorites. 

 

Anyway, good post, I agree. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Well...one of those years was 2020, so that's really not meaningful. 

He's Jacob deGrom. You might take him over Burnes, but he's healthy...and I suspect you'd be in the overwhelming minority on that. 

I love Burnes. He's great. deGrom is in a league of his own however. 

It's 11.4 WAR vs 8.5 WAR since 2020...and again, deGrom WAS injured much of that time. 

The other has been in his prime and won a Cy Young. That in and of itself is insane. deGrom is all the way back, averaging 99 MPH on his FB again. There's just no comp for him. If he hadn't come back or was still having shoulder issues, absolutely, the risk would be too great. But he came back from a stress fracture in his shoulder and was as dominant as ever. 

deGrom has allowed 1 or fewer run in almost HALF of his starts...for his entire career. That is...incomprehensible. 

deGrom is amazing, no doubt about it. But I just cannot ignore his health issues. Anyone who throws that hard is really concerning as they age into their 30s. I would be terrified to sign deGrom to a long term deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Well...one of those years was 2020, so that's really not meaningful. 

He's Jacob deGrom. You might take him over Burnes, but he's healthy...and I suspect you'd be in the overwhelming minority on that. 

I love Burnes. He's great. deGrom is in a league of his own however. 

It's 11.4 WAR vs 8.5 WAR since 2020...and again, deGrom WAS injured much of that time. 

The other has been in his prime and won a Cy Young. That in and of itself is insane. deGrom is all the way back, averaging 99 MPH on his FB again. There's just no comp for him. If he hadn't come back or was still having shoulder issues, absolutely, the risk would be too great. But he came back from a stress fracture in his shoulder and was as dominant as ever. 

deGrom has allowed 1 or fewer run in almost HALF of his starts...for his entire career. That is...incomprehensible. 

deGrom is amazing, no doubt about it. But I just cannot ignore his health issues. Anyone who throws that hard is really concerning as they age into their 30s. I would be terrified to sign deGrom to a long term deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think a good comp to this conservation is Byron Buxton. When he’s on the field and healthy, he’s probably the best CF in baseball. The problem is he’s on the field healthy so rarely that no one can really call him that.

The same applies to the past two seasons of deGrom and he’s not getting younger. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think a good comp to this conservation is Byron Buxton. When he’s on the field and healthy, he’s probably the best CF in baseball. The problem is he’s on the field healthy so rarely that no one can really call him that.

The same applies to the past two seasons of deGrom and he’s not getting younger. 

[UpandIn]

14 hours ago, Robocaller said:

the difference is I acknowledge when I'm wrong.

 

How many innings did Mickey Lolich pitch in 1971?

Was it over 370 innings?

[UpandIn]

14 hours ago, Robocaller said:

the difference is I acknowledge when I'm wrong.

 

How many innings did Mickey Lolich pitch in 1971?

Was it over 370 innings?

[UpandIn]

36 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think a good comp to this conservation is Byron Buxton. When he’s on the field and healthy, he’s probably the best CF in baseball. The problem is he’s on the field healthy so rarely that no one can really call him that.

The same applies to the past two seasons of deGrom and he’s not getting younger. 

I don't think that's a good comp at all. I think Mike Trout is a better comp. 

When he's healthy and on the field, he's one of the handful of best to ever do it. 

He's healthy...and nobody is getting any younger, but deGrom did get stronger as the season went on. 

[UpandIn]

36 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think a good comp to this conservation is Byron Buxton. When he’s on the field and healthy, he’s probably the best CF in baseball. The problem is he’s on the field healthy so rarely that no one can really call him that.

The same applies to the past two seasons of deGrom and he’s not getting younger. 

I don't think that's a good comp at all. I think Mike Trout is a better comp. 

When he's healthy and on the field, he's one of the handful of best to ever do it. 

He's healthy...and nobody is getting any younger, but deGrom did get stronger as the season went on. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

I don't think that's a good comp at all. I think Mike Trout is a better comp. 

When he's healthy and on the field, he's one of the handful of best to ever do it. 

He's healthy...and nobody is getting any younger, but deGrom did get stronger as the season went on. 

Mike Trout is also a fine comp. But realize Buxton was “healthy” for exactly zero games this season and posted an fWAR of 4.0 in 92 games while DHing every third day because he could barely walk. As someone who has watched Buxton a lot, he’s prime Trout-level good when he’s healthy, he’s just never healthy.

Anyway, we’re kinda derailing here. We disagree on this and that’s fine. Let’s move on to how else you’re wrong instead of containing this derailment. ?

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

I don't think that's a good comp at all. I think Mike Trout is a better comp. 

When he's healthy and on the field, he's one of the handful of best to ever do it. 

He's healthy...and nobody is getting any younger, but deGrom did get stronger as the season went on. 

Mike Trout is also a fine comp. But realize Buxton was “healthy” for exactly zero games this season and posted an fWAR of 4.0 in 92 games while DHing every third day because he could barely walk. As someone who has watched Buxton a lot, he’s prime Trout-level good when he’s healthy, he’s just never healthy.

Anyway, we’re kinda derailing here. We disagree on this and that’s fine. Let’s move on to how else you’re wrong instead of containing this derailment. ?

[UpandIn]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Mike Trout is also a fine comp. But realize Buxton was “healthy” for exactly zero games this season and posted an fWAR of 4.0 in 92 games while DHing every third day because he could barely walk. As someone who has watched Buxton a lot, he’s prime Trout-level good when he’s healthy, he’s just never healthy. 

Ok, I don't wanna nitpick this too much...because I get your point and Buxton is a FREAK talent when healthy, but I'm looking at it more like the flaws in their game and their peak and impact on their game. 

deGrom is pretty much the perfect pitcher when he's healthy...kinda like Trout is just about the perfect player when HE'S healthy. And remember, he has a degenerative back problem that's been ailing him. 

And we've never seen a full season of Buxton. We've seen several full seasons from deGrom, including back to back Cy Young's and one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory. 

Buxton is a guy who's value comes largely from his defense and...you can get him out. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton break out and have a monster, MVP type season, but I'm not really counting on it. 

deGrom is the odds on favorite to win the Cy Young next year regardless what league he ends up in.

 

BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). 

deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1
Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). 
Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. 
Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). 
Kodai Senga 3/72
That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. 
Eovaldi 4/90

Chris Bassitt 4/74
Taillon -4/70
Zach Efflin 3/36

Now...hypothetically, lets say we traded both Woody and Burnes. 
I'd be out on Rodon because...why spend that money when you could have just signed one of those two(though you would get massive value back in prospects). 
That's actually a pretty reasonable price for Rodon, just...don't see the point.

The two guys who I think Bowden is overestimating are Kodai Senga. 

I see him at more a 5 years @20M per with a PO after the 3rd or4th year. THAT I'd consider. It'd be a risk, but...I think a justified one. 
And then Nathan Eovaldi...but NOT at 4/90. I see him back in Boston at like 2/44 similar to Rodon with a TO for 30M.

But the one that makes the most sense is Zach Efflin. Gets a lot of GBs. Whichever order we roll out our IF, it should be good defensively on the IF. He induces soft contact. He can be a swing man or a late inning reliever. Could allow the Brewers to use their pitchers a bit more freely. 
I'd prefer we go with more high end relievers like Suarez and Montero and spend just a bit more, but Efflin has some appeal to my mind. 

[UpandIn]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Mike Trout is also a fine comp. But realize Buxton was “healthy” for exactly zero games this season and posted an fWAR of 4.0 in 92 games while DHing every third day because he could barely walk. As someone who has watched Buxton a lot, he’s prime Trout-level good when he’s healthy, he’s just never healthy. 

Ok, I don't wanna nitpick this too much...because I get your point and Buxton is a FREAK talent when healthy, but I'm looking at it more like the flaws in their game and their peak and impact on their game. 

deGrom is pretty much the perfect pitcher when he's healthy...kinda like Trout is just about the perfect player when HE'S healthy. And remember, he has a degenerative back problem that's been ailing him. 

And we've never seen a full season of Buxton. We've seen several full seasons from deGrom, including back to back Cy Young's and one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory. 

Buxton is a guy who's value comes largely from his defense and...you can get him out. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buxton break out and have a monster, MVP type season, but I'm not really counting on it. 

deGrom is the odds on favorite to win the Cy Young next year regardless what league he ends up in.

 

BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). 

deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1
Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). 
Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. 
Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). 
Kodai Senga 3/72
That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. 
Eovaldi 4/90

Chris Bassitt 4/74
Taillon -4/70
Zach Efflin 3/36

Now...hypothetically, lets say we traded both Woody and Burnes. 
I'd be out on Rodon because...why spend that money when you could have just signed one of those two(though you would get massive value back in prospects). 
That's actually a pretty reasonable price for Rodon, just...don't see the point.

The two guys who I think Bowden is overestimating are Kodai Senga. 

I see him at more a 5 years @20M per with a PO after the 3rd or4th year. THAT I'd consider. It'd be a risk, but...I think a justified one. 
And then Nathan Eovaldi...but NOT at 4/90. I see him back in Boston at like 2/44 similar to Rodon with a TO for 30M.

But the one that makes the most sense is Zach Efflin. Gets a lot of GBs. Whichever order we roll out our IF, it should be good defensively on the IF. He induces soft contact. He can be a swing man or a late inning reliever. Could allow the Brewers to use their pitchers a bit more freely. 
I'd prefer we go with more high end relievers like Suarez and Montero and spend just a bit more, but Efflin has some appeal to my mind. 

[Sixtolezcano]

21 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Henderson has more trade value by himself than Burnes does (BTV). 

That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

[Sixtolezcano]

21 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Henderson has more trade value by himself than Burnes does (BTV). 

That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

How many innings did Mickey Lolich pitch in 1971?

Was it over 370 innings?

I had looked at a list of guys who led innings pitched. Either I missed that, or the list I looked at was inaccurate.