Article: Is Now the Right Time to Trade Corbin Burnes?

[Tim Muma]

It is rare to willingly get rid of one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB, who also won a Cy Young Award two seasons ago. However, the Milwaukee Brewers have to consider the option of trading Corbin Burnes now to maximize the return package of talent, especially if they aren't going to offer the right-hander a long-term contract.

 

GM Matt Arnold will have some tough decisions in the coming months and years, but nothing is more significant than determining how to handle Corbin Burnes' time with the Milwaukee Brewers. That could also be affected by what the Brewers decide to do with Brandon Woodruff. It isn't easy to see them keeping both or offering long-term deals before they become free agents in two seasons. Could they trade both? That would be a gamble, too. But let's look squarely at Burnes and his trade candidacy.

The 2021 NL Cy Young has been phenomenal since the start of the 2020 season, which means a big payday is on the horizon. Some people need to appreciate how ridiculous Burnes has been in the last three years and how it will impact his salary.

Corbin Burnes ranks first among MLB starters in these categories since 2020:

• 2.60 ERA
• 2.36 FIP
• 0.96 WHIP
• 11.83 K/9
• 33.3 K% 
• 27.1 K-BB%
• 7.86 WPA (Win Probability Added)
• 14.3 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement)

Burnes makes a strong case for being the best pitcher in baseball right now. With two years of arbitration remaining, he would become a free agent after the 2024 season if he doesn't sign a contract extension. Those numbers for a starter who would hit free agency at 30 with mostly good health could generate a record contract. Burnes also tossed more than 200 innings last season while leading the NL with 243 strikeouts, meaning he isn't likely to decline soon. A quick look at recent starting pitcher contracts could legitimately net Burnes a contract for anywhere between five and eight years from $175-$275 million if a big market team is determined to land him. Check out the list below from Spotrac.com and you can see the huge deals for recent starting pitchers. 

Realistically, the Brewers are unlikely to invest that much in one player, especially with the way the Christian Yelich deal has gone thus far. Pitchers also carry more injury risk. If the organization doesn't want to lose Burnes to free agency without getting anything in return, this offseason could net them the most crucial haul for future success. The question is, can you get fair value back in a trade?

For the Brewers to jettison Burnes elsewhere, they need at least a couple of players at the beginning of their MLB careers or on the cusp. Getting two players back who are under team control for five or six years and are ready to contribute now is essential to keep the club from dipping in performance. Then Milwaukee would need a couple of higher-level prospects with significant potential. Ideally, they're getting at least two starting pitchers in the deal and one impact bat. People might argue the return should include a top-20 MLB prospect and three more of the team's best 10 minor leaguers, but that can be subjective.

It's going to come down to the right fit for a club that lacks top-tier starting pitching and has the means to sign Burns to a long-term contract. It would help if you also had a team that feels comfortable offensively or is willing to add offense via free agency. They would then feel good about swapping out a solid bat (and the other pieces) for a true ace that puts them over the top. The first two clubs that come to mind as examples are the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles. Both teams want to push their franchises forward, and their farm systems were ranked sixth and first this past August.

Texas has already shown a willingness to pay big bucks by giving Corey Seager and Marcus Semien mega-deals last offseason. The Rangers have six prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100, including third baseman Josh Jung (#36) and right-handed pitchers Jack Leiter (#45), Owen White (#59), and Brock Porter (#89). Getting Jung and two of those hurlers gets them in the ballpark, then you figure out the fourth player. Texas finished fifth in runs scored (4.36 R/G) in the AL last season but 12th in ERA (4.22), so they would make a considerable jump up with Burnes. Rangers' fans in September were already pining for a rotation with Burnes at the top.

How does this sound for Rangers opening day rotation 2023

RHP Corbin Burnes
RHP Jon Gray
LHP Martin Perez
RHP Koudai Senga
RHP Dane Dunning

— John Moore (The Recliner Nerd) (@reclinernerd) September 13, 2022

As for the Orioles, they were only 10th in the AL in runs scored (4.16), although they would have an entire season of catcher Adley Rutschman and shortstop Gunnar Henderson to increase production in 2023 and beyond. Baltimore also has money to burn in free agency to acquire a big hitter for the middle of its lineup. Meanwhile, the O's 3.97 ERA ranked ninth in the AL; however, they had a 4.35 starting pitching ERA. They could use a stud arm up front to lead their young hurlers.

Baltimore also has six of MLB's top-100 prospects, though Henderson (#2), right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (#4), and this year's number one overall draft pick, Jackson Holliday, are probably off limits. That leaves outfielder Colton Cowser (#40), infielder Jordan Westburg (#76), and left-handed pitcher DL Hall (#87) in play. Of course, Baltimore could also entice the Brewers with a Major Leaguer. Could outfielders Cedric Mullins or Anthony Santander be moved to acquire a starter like Burnes? It's possible because of the Orioles loaded farm system and available cash.

? Jordan Westburg rakes!

This is Westy's second 5-hit game of the season for Norfolk ? pic.twitter.com/H7Fsx5kQ2r

— Orioles Player Development (@OsPlayerDev) September 17, 2022

No matter who the Brewers get in return for a potential Burnes trade, many in the fanbase will be upset - and there's nothing wrong with that. Unfortunately, moving a player of Burnes' caliber at the right time for the best collection of young talent possible is often the ideal long-term option for continued, sustainable success.

The most intriguing question around a Burnes trade might be, when is the best time to make it happen? Should the Brewers see how 2023 starts and trade him at the mid-season deadline if the club is floundering? It gives you another shot at the playoffs with your two aces (assuming Woodruff is still with the club). Do you wait until next offseason when he has just one year left on the contract and has slightly less value? You also risk injury or ineffectiveness curtailing his worth. That potential for injury and a possible dip in value is why many believe that if the Milwaukee Brewers are going to trade Corbin Burnes, this offseason is the time to strike. What do you think about dealing Burnes away, and who should they try to get back?

View full article

[endaround]

My answer is no, but then I know I am by myself with not trading anyone over the next two years and trying to actually win 90+ games each year.  Right now marginal wins are valuable, in three or four years when these prospects are ready, the Brewers may be struggling for that 75th win.  And this is what these trades are, expected wins today for expected future wins.  Right now there are only 7 or 8* teams trying to win in the NL. That is likely to change in the future as the Cubs and the Nationals are not going to sit on the sidelines forever.  So strike when you have the most to gain and when wins have the most meaning. In two years, you let everyone walk, get a bunch of draft picks, trade Peralta and Ashby (if he has value), trade some of the younger players coming up now (Wiemer if still on the Brewers would make sense given his age and Chourio coming up. Another option would be Mitchell) and go from there.

 

*Well I think Colorado is also trying but in that special Colorado way which is panful to watch, so there is 9th team technically.

[endaround]

My answer is no, but then I know I am by myself with not trading anyone over the next two years and trying to actually win 90+ games each year.  Right now marginal wins are valuable, in three or four years when these prospects are ready, the Brewers may be struggling for that 75th win.  And this is what these trades are, expected wins today for expected future wins.  Right now there are only 7 or 8* teams trying to win in the NL. That is likely to change in the future as the Cubs and the Nationals are not going to sit on the sidelines forever.  So strike when you have the most to gain and when wins have the most meaning. In two years, you let everyone walk, get a bunch of draft picks, trade Peralta and Ashby (if he has value), trade some of the younger players coming up now (Wiemer if still on the Brewers would make sense given his age and Chourio coming up. Another option would be Mitchell) and go from there.

 

*Well I think Colorado is also trying but in that special Colorado way which is panful to watch, so there is 9th team technically.

[Lou Buell]

After what happened with the Hader trade if they move Burnes look for a full out player mutiny.  If they are crazy enough to do it put Yelich in the deal as the deal breaker and YES there is a team that would do the deal.  Also, don't count out Stearn's ending up with the Yankee's and not the Met's, that fan base is putting pressure on their GM.

[Lou Buell]

After what happened with the Hader trade if they move Burnes look for a full out player mutiny.  If they are crazy enough to do it put Yelich in the deal as the deal breaker and YES there is a team that would do the deal.  Also, don't count out Stearn's ending up with the Yankee's and not the Met's, that fan base is putting pressure on their GM.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I shop Burnes this offseason but I'm not trading him unless a team like the Orioles comes in hot. If someone offers me four global 100 guys I like that includes two close-to-MLB players and two pitchers, I pull the trigger.

If someone offers me three global 100 prospects I really like, maybe I also trade him.

Basically, I make and receive calls but unless someone comes with a truly serious offer, I focus on what Burnes can give the team in 2023 in reevaluate in July.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I shop Burnes this offseason but I'm not trading him unless a team like the Orioles comes in hot. If someone offers me four global 100 guys I like that includes two close-to-MLB players and two pitchers, I pull the trigger.

If someone offers me three global 100 prospects I really like, maybe I also trade him.

Basically, I make and receive calls but unless someone comes with a truly serious offer, I focus on what Burnes can give the team in 2023 in reevaluate in July.

[Brewcrew82]

If the Orioles do declare that Rodriguez and Holliday are off limits, then they’re not getting Burnes, a top 3 (if not THE) top pitcher in baseball. It’s as simple as that. 
 

I’m not trading Burnes just for the sake of trading him while he still has two years of control. He’s got a specific value, and a team is going to have to meet or exceed that value. Otherwise, let’s go run it back with perhaps the best 1-2 punch in baseball. 

[Brewcrew82]

If the Orioles do declare that Rodriguez and Holliday are off limits, then they’re not getting Burnes, a top 3 (if not THE) top pitcher in baseball. It’s as simple as that. 
 

I’m not trading Burnes just for the sake of trading him while he still has two years of control. He’s got a specific value, and a team is going to have to meet or exceed that value. Otherwise, let’s go run it back with perhaps the best 1-2 punch in baseball. 

[wibadgers23]

Call it a hunch but I don’t think the Orioles would go all out to acquire Burnes. He’d likely be gone in two years and they would have had to trade some major prospects to get him. I’m hoping the Dodgers offers up a deal Arnold can’t refuse as they have both pitching and corner infield prospects that would be very enticing.

[wibadgers23]

Call it a hunch but I don’t think the Orioles would go all out to acquire Burnes. He’d likely be gone in two years and they would have had to trade some major prospects to get him. I’m hoping the Dodgers offers up a deal Arnold can’t refuse as they have both pitching and corner infield prospects that would be very enticing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If the Orioles do declare that Rodriguez and Holliday are off limits, then they’re not getting Burnes, a top 3 (if not THE) top pitcher in baseball. It’s as simple as that. 

*Orioles call about Burnes and take their best prospects off the table*

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If the Orioles do declare that Rodriguez and Holliday are off limits, then they’re not getting Burnes, a top 3 (if not THE) top pitcher in baseball. It’s as simple as that. 

*Orioles call about Burnes and take their best prospects off the table*

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Call it a hunch but I don’t think the Orioles would go all out to acquire Burnes. He’d likely be gone in two years and they would have had to trade some major prospects to get him. I’m hoping the Dodgers offers up a deal Arnold can’t refuse as they have both pitching and corner infield prospects that would be very enticing.

I think you're underestimating the payroll potential of Baltimore once they decide to become competitive. They can pretty easily carry a payroll similar to teams like Philadelphia (maybe just a step below but close) should they decide to do so.

And given their competition and division, Orioles fans should throw a fit if the team doesn't do that. They suffered for a long time waiting for a competitive organization, they should demand ownership to start carrying a payroll commensurate with their market size.

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Call it a hunch but I don’t think the Orioles would go all out to acquire Burnes. He’d likely be gone in two years and they would have had to trade some major prospects to get him. I’m hoping the Dodgers offers up a deal Arnold can’t refuse as they have both pitching and corner infield prospects that would be very enticing.

I think you're underestimating the payroll potential of Baltimore once they decide to become competitive. They can pretty easily carry a payroll similar to teams like Philadelphia (maybe just a step below but close) should they decide to do so.

And given their competition and division, Orioles fans should throw a fit if the team doesn't do that. They suffered for a long time waiting for a competitive organization, they should demand ownership to start carrying a payroll commensurate with their market size.

[wibadgers23]

40 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think you're underestimating the payroll potential of Baltimore once they decide to become competitive. They can pretty easily carry a payroll similar to teams like Philadelphia (maybe just a step below but close) should they decide to do so.

And given their competition and division, Orioles fans should throw a fit if the team doesn't do that. They suffered for a long time waiting for a competitive organization, they should demand ownership to start carrying a payroll commensurate with their market size.

Isn't Baltimore known to be very conservative when it comes to trading top prospects or was that a prior regime? 

[wibadgers23]

40 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think you're underestimating the payroll potential of Baltimore once they decide to become competitive. They can pretty easily carry a payroll similar to teams like Philadelphia (maybe just a step below but close) should they decide to do so.

And given their competition and division, Orioles fans should throw a fit if the team doesn't do that. They suffered for a long time waiting for a competitive organization, they should demand ownership to start carrying a payroll commensurate with their market size.

Isn't Baltimore known to be very conservative when it comes to trading top prospects or was that a prior regime? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Isn't Baltimore known to be very conservative when it comes to trading top prospects or was that a prior regime? 

Their latest regime is from the Astros. I think they took over around... 2016? Going from memory here so I could be off by a year or two. They haven't traded prospects because they've been aggressively building the farm until now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Isn't Baltimore known to be very conservative when it comes to trading top prospects or was that a prior regime? 

Their latest regime is from the Astros. I think they took over around... 2016? Going from memory here so I could be off by a year or two. They haven't traded prospects because they've been aggressively building the farm until now.

[Brewcrew82]

Also, why on earth would the Brewers want Santander and/or Mullins? Like this team needs more outfielders, especially ones that are in their late 20s and are already arbitration-eligible. 

[Brewcrew82]

Also, why on earth would the Brewers want Santander and/or Mullins? Like this team needs more outfielders, especially ones that are in their late 20s and are already arbitration-eligible. 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

I would actually try to buyout the next three years for Burnes something like 3 years $60-80 million dollar range.  Also try to extend Woodruff with a similar offer.  I doubt the Brewers would ever receive fair value for either in a trade so might as well hang on and be a playoff team for a couple of more years.   

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

I would actually try to buyout the next three years for Burnes something like 3 years $60-80 million dollar range.  Also try to extend Woodruff with a similar offer.  I doubt the Brewers would ever receive fair value for either in a trade so might as well hang on and be a playoff team for a couple of more years.   

[GAME05]

I don't know if the Brewers have even figured out whether they're a "soft rebuilds are necessary with our budget limitations" team or if they're a "try and be competitive ever year" team. There's no agreement on this site, either, and to me that seems like the biggest factor on whether folks say trade or keep.

I'm in the "soft rebuild" camp and I think we'd have every ability to push for the playoffs next year even with Burnes gone. Trade from your strength, especially considering there's no need for a mid-budget team to have one or two guys in the bullpen who should be getting starts.

Further, our OF prospects are speed guys, and speed is kinda negated if you're a low-ave/HR offense, so trading Burnes now is a great opportunity to get a better contact hitter or two in to better take advantage of that.

[GAME05]

I don't know if the Brewers have even figured out whether they're a "soft rebuilds are necessary with our budget limitations" team or if they're a "try and be competitive ever year" team. There's no agreement on this site, either, and to me that seems like the biggest factor on whether folks say trade or keep.

I'm in the "soft rebuild" camp and I think we'd have every ability to push for the playoffs next year even with Burnes gone. Trade from your strength, especially considering there's no need for a mid-budget team to have one or two guys in the bullpen who should be getting starts.

Further, our OF prospects are speed guys, and speed is kinda negated if you're a low-ave/HR offense, so trading Burnes now is a great opportunity to get a better contact hitter or two in to better take advantage of that.