Article: Is Brandon Woodruff a Brewers Trade Candidate?

[Nash Walker]

The Brewers have boasted one of most dominant duos of starting pitchers in baseball for the last several years. Are those days coming to an end?

Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff have combined to strike out a remarkable 878 batters over the last two seasons. On their own, they’re two of the very best pitchers in the league. Together, they form a truly unstoppable force. The Brewers made the playoffs for four straight seasons before 2022, with Woodruff and Burnes as key reasons why.

Things could be different in 2023. 

The Brewers have Aaron Ashby and Freddy Peralta under contract long-term, but Woodruff, Burnes and Eric Lauer will all become free agents following the 2024 season. It’s highly unlikely that Milwaukee will extend all three, with a good bet that they’ll retain only one. One can guess that one would be Burnes, the 2021 National League Cy Young winner. 

So where does that leave Woodruff, Burnes’ partner in dismantling hitters? 

Woodruff, 29, is exactly the type of pitcher many teams would covet. Since 2018, the 6-foot-4, 243-pound righty has posted a 3.06 ERA (137 ERA+) with an identical 3.06 FIP. Woodruff has notched three seasons in a row with an ERA of 3.05 or lower. He’s one of the best, most consistent starters in the league. 

Since 2020, Woodruff ranks 16th in ERA (2.84), eighth in strikeouts (492) and eighth in b-Wins Above Replacement (10.4). Woodruff has been more valuable, by bWAR, than Gerrit Cole, Luis Castillo and Yu Darvish over the last three seasons. Woodruff is a bonafide No. 1 starter and is a luxury as the No. 2 in Milwaukee’s rotation. 

It’s feasible that the Brewers decide to hang onto Woodruff and go for it again in 2023 and 2024. The team was close to the playoffs this season and can hope for improved health from Peralta and a better year from Christian Yelich. Per MLB Pipeline, the Brewers’ top six prospects are all position players. There’s real optimism for improved offense in the not-too-distant future. 

That didn’t stop the Crew from trading Josh Hader, though, who was just over a year from free agency and expected to earn a considerable raise via arbitration. Woodruff’s situation could be similar with prominent, talented prospects waiting on the other end. 

**What might a Brandon Woodruff contract extension look like?**

A rotation of Burnes, Peralta, Ashby, Lauer and Adrian Houser could be enough to compete again in 2023. The loss of Woodruff would sting but recent packages for Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo provide a glimpse of what Milwaukee could get in return. If they’re not going to extend him, why not cash in now?

The Yankees dealt three of their top 10 prospects for Montas, while the Mariners parted with a significant package headlined by MLB Pipeline’s No. 17 prospect in Noelvi Marte for Castillo. The Twins acquired Tyler Mahle for two breakouts in Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand along with promising lefty Steve Hajjar. 

**Speaking of the Twins, could they be a potential trade partner for the Brewers and Woodruff?**

On the flip side, Woodruff is a homegrown star in the midst of his prime. There’s little reason *not* to extend both Woodruff and Burnes, outside of the elevated price tags. As long as those two are in Brewers uniforms, the floor of the team will always be fairly high. It’s a unique and special pairing. 

If the Brewers want to keep their co-aces together, they’ll likely need to get creative with the rest of the roster to stay within their self-imposed budget. A league-minimum, talented outfield of Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, and Sal Frelick could be a potential solution, as the team waits for Jackson Chourio to arrive too. 

After a disappointing finish to 2022 and with only three players under guaranteed contracts for 2023, the Brewers have an interesting offseason ahead. Will they run it back and try to win again? Or will they decide to cash in and improve their farm system, with Woodruff a clear trade candidate?

What should the Brewers do with Woodruff? Trade, hold, or extend? Comment below!

 

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[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Burnes is a more likely trade candidate, as I believe the Brewers have less of a chance of extending him past arb.

I hope I’m wrong but that’s the situation I see. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Burnes is a more likely trade candidate, as I believe the Brewers have less of a chance of extending him past arb.

I hope I’m wrong but that’s the situation I see. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think Burnes is a more likely trade candidate, as I believe the Brewers have less of a chance of extending him past arb.

I hope I’m wrong but that’s the situation I see. 

Yeah, if you can find the money for either, obviously you would trade Woodruff. But that's likely not the reality we're living in. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think Burnes is a more likely trade candidate, as I believe the Brewers have less of a chance of extending him past arb.

I hope I’m wrong but that’s the situation I see. 

Yeah, if you can find the money for either, obviously you would trade Woodruff. But that's likely not the reality we're living in. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, if you can find the money for either, obviously you would trade Woodruff. But that's likely not the reality we're living in. 

Yeah, disregarding money you keep Burnes over Woodruff close to 100% of the time... but that's not the way baseball works, unfortunately.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, if you can find the money for either, obviously you would trade Woodruff. But that's likely not the reality we're living in. 

Yeah, disregarding money you keep Burnes over Woodruff close to 100% of the time... but that's not the way baseball works, unfortunately.

[Robocaller]

Everyone is a trade candidate if you find a trading partner who values the player more than you do.

My preference would be to ride out Woodruff and Burnes for at least one more season, extending either if you can for even one season of FA. But it's equally reasonable to trade Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames for (mostly) MLB-ready players with an eye on competing in 2024..

[Robocaller]

Everyone is a trade candidate if you find a trading partner who values the player more than you do.

My preference would be to ride out Woodruff and Burnes for at least one more season, extending either if you can for even one season of FA. But it's equally reasonable to trade Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames for (mostly) MLB-ready players with an eye on competing in 2024..

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Everyone is a trade candidate if you find a trading partner who values the player more than you do.

My preference would be to ride out Woodruff and Burnes for at least one more season, extending either if you can for even one season of FA. But it's equally reasonable to trade Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames for (mostly) MLB-ready players with an eye on competing in 2024..

I think that's where management is leaning too, judging by the "opportunistic" and "very intent on returning to the playoffs in 2023" remarks from Arnold and Attanasio. And then before he stepped down, Stearns said they were going to bring back "the core". 

They would probably have to be blown away by an offer to trade one of the big 3. They will listen though, as they always do and should. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Everyone is a trade candidate if you find a trading partner who values the player more than you do.

My preference would be to ride out Woodruff and Burnes for at least one more season, extending either if you can for even one season of FA. But it's equally reasonable to trade Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames for (mostly) MLB-ready players with an eye on competing in 2024..

I think that's where management is leaning too, judging by the "opportunistic" and "very intent on returning to the playoffs in 2023" remarks from Arnold and Attanasio. And then before he stepped down, Stearns said they were going to bring back "the core". 

They would probably have to be blown away by an offer to trade one of the big 3. They will listen though, as they always do and should. 

[SF70]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think that's where management is leaning too, judging by the "opportunistic" and "very intent on returning to the playoffs in 2023" remarks from Arnold and Attanasio. And then before he stepped down, Stearns said they were going to bring back "the core". 

They would probably have to be blown away by an offer to trade one of the big 3. They will listen though, as they always do and should. 

The Brewers rarely do what we think they’ll do. Opportunistic could also mean trading Burnes this offseason because we will be blown away by trade offers since an ace starter is the most valuable commodity in baseball and by a lot, and 2 years of said commodity is worth more than twice what 1 year is worth.

 

[SF70]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think that's where management is leaning too, judging by the "opportunistic" and "very intent on returning to the playoffs in 2023" remarks from Arnold and Attanasio. And then before he stepped down, Stearns said they were going to bring back "the core". 

They would probably have to be blown away by an offer to trade one of the big 3. They will listen though, as they always do and should. 

The Brewers rarely do what we think they’ll do. Opportunistic could also mean trading Burnes this offseason because we will be blown away by trade offers since an ace starter is the most valuable commodity in baseball and by a lot, and 2 years of said commodity is worth more than twice what 1 year is worth.

 

[Brewcrew82]

59 minutes ago, SF70 said:

The Brewers rarely do what we think they’ll do. Opportunistic could also mean trading Burnes this offseason because we will be blown away by trade offers since an ace starter is the most valuable commodity in baseball and by a lot, and 2 years of said commodity is worth more than twice what 1 year is worth.

 

That's your opinion, which you've stated repeatedly, and you're certainly entitled to it. But the likely scenario, even beyond their comments, continues to be that they run it back with the big 3 still in tow. They're not going to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames for the sake of trading them while they're still under two years of control. They want to compete at a high level and get back to the playoffs in 2023 and having Burnes/Woodruff at the top of the rotation and Adames at SS almost certainly gives them their best shot to do so. They'll listen to offers, given the realities of the market and the fact they want to keep getting future "bites at the apple", but any trade will have to meet their high asking price and outweigh the immediate costs of losing such a player. 

[Brewcrew82]

59 minutes ago, SF70 said:

The Brewers rarely do what we think they’ll do. Opportunistic could also mean trading Burnes this offseason because we will be blown away by trade offers since an ace starter is the most valuable commodity in baseball and by a lot, and 2 years of said commodity is worth more than twice what 1 year is worth.

 

That's your opinion, which you've stated repeatedly, and you're certainly entitled to it. But the likely scenario, even beyond their comments, continues to be that they run it back with the big 3 still in tow. They're not going to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames for the sake of trading them while they're still under two years of control. They want to compete at a high level and get back to the playoffs in 2023 and having Burnes/Woodruff at the top of the rotation and Adames at SS almost certainly gives them their best shot to do so. They'll listen to offers, given the realities of the market and the fact they want to keep getting future "bites at the apple", but any trade will have to meet their high asking price and outweigh the immediate costs of losing such a player. 

[SF70]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That's your opinion, which you've stated repeatedly, and you're certainly entitled to it. But the likely scenario, even beyond their comments, continues to be that they run it back with the big 3 still in tow. They're not going to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames for the sake of trading them while they're still under two years of control. They want to compete at a high level and get back to the playoffs in 2023 and having Burnes/Woodruff at the top of the rotation and Adames at SS gives them a great shot to do so. They'll listen to offers, given the realities of the market and the fact they want to keep getting future "bites at the apple", but any trade will have to meet their high asking price and outweigh the immediate costs of losing such a player. 

I don’t see them turning down the type of return they will get for Burnes this offseason. It will virtually assure the team of extending their contention timeframe, which imo, seems to be their overriding goal.

 

[SF70]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That's your opinion, which you've stated repeatedly, and you're certainly entitled to it. But the likely scenario, even beyond their comments, continues to be that they run it back with the big 3 still in tow. They're not going to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames for the sake of trading them while they're still under two years of control. They want to compete at a high level and get back to the playoffs in 2023 and having Burnes/Woodruff at the top of the rotation and Adames at SS gives them a great shot to do so. They'll listen to offers, given the realities of the market and the fact they want to keep getting future "bites at the apple", but any trade will have to meet their high asking price and outweigh the immediate costs of losing such a player. 

I don’t see them turning down the type of return they will get for Burnes this offseason. It will virtually assure the team of extending their contention timeframe, which imo, seems to be their overriding goal.

 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I don’t see them turning down the type of return they will get for Burnes this offseason. It will virtually assure the team of extending their contention timeframe, which imo, seems to be their overriding goal.

 

I wouldn't automatically assume they'll get an offer for Burnes that they can't turn down. They might get lowballed for Burnes, while having a different team exceed their asking price for Adames and/or Woodruff. As far as their overriding goal, the big man himself said the other day that they're "VERY intent" on returning to the postseason in 2022. That becomes a more difficult task were they to trade any of the big three. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I don’t see them turning down the type of return they will get for Burnes this offseason. It will virtually assure the team of extending their contention timeframe, which imo, seems to be their overriding goal.

 

I wouldn't automatically assume they'll get an offer for Burnes that they can't turn down. They might get lowballed for Burnes, while having a different team exceed their asking price for Adames and/or Woodruff. As far as their overriding goal, the big man himself said the other day that they're "VERY intent" on returning to the postseason in 2022. That becomes a more difficult task were they to trade any of the big three. 

[MrTPlush]

If Stearns was the GM, I would be 95% confident either Burnes or Woodruff hits the road out of town.

Now that Arnold is the main guy and he will have a new conversation with ownership I am less confident. Attanasio is very fan-like and is one of those owners that legitimately would love to win a World Series. Attanasio has also been proven to be a bit reactionary and emotional over the years. Demanding things like FA signings and signing elite players to long term contracts. He certainly gave the reigns more to Stearns, but he still likely was the one forcing a Yelich extension. After trading Hader and watching the team/fanbase implode, I definitely could see them keeping everyone in tow and trying to make big moves. 

If I had to guess, I doubt Attanasio (whether Arnold wants to or not) lets one of the aces get traded, UNLESS it is like they tried to do with Fielder when he was near FA...acquire win-now talent in return. Since those trade don't exactly happen outside of MLB: The Show, I am guessing they both return.

It would send a brutal message to the fanbase if they traded Hader, the 2022 season imploded, and then they started making it look like a fire sale this winter. 

[MrTPlush]

If Stearns was the GM, I would be 95% confident either Burnes or Woodruff hits the road out of town.

Now that Arnold is the main guy and he will have a new conversation with ownership I am less confident. Attanasio is very fan-like and is one of those owners that legitimately would love to win a World Series. Attanasio has also been proven to be a bit reactionary and emotional over the years. Demanding things like FA signings and signing elite players to long term contracts. He certainly gave the reigns more to Stearns, but he still likely was the one forcing a Yelich extension. After trading Hader and watching the team/fanbase implode, I definitely could see them keeping everyone in tow and trying to make big moves. 

If I had to guess, I doubt Attanasio (whether Arnold wants to or not) lets one of the aces get traded, UNLESS it is like they tried to do with Fielder when he was near FA...acquire win-now talent in return. Since those trade don't exactly happen outside of MLB: The Show, I am guessing they both return.

It would send a brutal message to the fanbase if they traded Hader, the 2022 season imploded, and then they started making it look like a fire sale this winter. 

[UpandIn]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I wouldn't automatically assume they'll get an offer for Burnes that they can't turn down. They might get lowballed for Burnes, while having a different team exceed their asking price for Adames and/or Woodruff. As far as their overriding goal, the big man himself said the other day that they're "VERY intent" on returning to the postseason in 2022. That becomes a more difficult task were they to trade any of the big three. 

Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if maybe we're doing what some fans did with Hader. 

I got into a Twitter debate with a fan at the start of this season in which he stated we'd get "at least 4 top 100 prospects" back for Hader.

I don't think 4 top 100 or 150 prospects is expecting too much for Burnes, but a lot of us are naturally just looking at teams who appear to be likely invested in getting an ace and picking 3 or 4 of their top 5-10 prospects. A team would have to be pretty desperate. And that may well happen, but if it doesn't, we should just hold onto them. 

[UpandIn]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I wouldn't automatically assume they'll get an offer for Burnes that they can't turn down. They might get lowballed for Burnes, while having a different team exceed their asking price for Adames and/or Woodruff. As far as their overriding goal, the big man himself said the other day that they're "VERY intent" on returning to the postseason in 2022. That becomes a more difficult task were they to trade any of the big three. 

Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if maybe we're doing what some fans did with Hader. 

I got into a Twitter debate with a fan at the start of this season in which he stated we'd get "at least 4 top 100 prospects" back for Hader.

I don't think 4 top 100 or 150 prospects is expecting too much for Burnes, but a lot of us are naturally just looking at teams who appear to be likely invested in getting an ace and picking 3 or 4 of their top 5-10 prospects. A team would have to be pretty desperate. And that may well happen, but if it doesn't, we should just hold onto them. 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if maybe we're doing what some fans did with Hader. 

I got into a Twitter debate with a fan at the start of this season in which he stated we'd get "at least 4 top 100 prospects" back for Hader.

I don't think 4 top 100 or 150 prospects is expecting too much for Burnes, but a lot of us are naturally just looking at teams who appear to be likely invested in getting an ace and picking 3 or 4 of their top 5-10 prospects. A team would have to be pretty desperate. And that may well happen, but if it doesn't, we should just hold onto them. 

But that’s the type of return this team would likely get if they shopped Burnes this offseason, especially from a team like the Dodgers who would have a leg-up with extending Burnes, imo.

This offseason is the sweet-spot for trading Burnes and maximizing return. Higher probability for the trading team to extend him 2 years out from FA vs 1.

Last year, at 3 years control, how many teams would have had the prospect capital to trade for Burnes? or even if they did, would have given that much up?

This team needs to acquire big-league ready starting pitching prospects to replace Burnes, Woody and Lauer before OD/‘25. 

Waiting another year puts injury and or regression into the equation. Even with all things being equal, the return shrinks to less than half due to Burnes higher ‘23 salary.

For all of these reasons I believe the team trades Burnes this offseason.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if maybe we're doing what some fans did with Hader. 

I got into a Twitter debate with a fan at the start of this season in which he stated we'd get "at least 4 top 100 prospects" back for Hader.

I don't think 4 top 100 or 150 prospects is expecting too much for Burnes, but a lot of us are naturally just looking at teams who appear to be likely invested in getting an ace and picking 3 or 4 of their top 5-10 prospects. A team would have to be pretty desperate. And that may well happen, but if it doesn't, we should just hold onto them. 

But that’s the type of return this team would likely get if they shopped Burnes this offseason, especially from a team like the Dodgers who would have a leg-up with extending Burnes, imo.

This offseason is the sweet-spot for trading Burnes and maximizing return. Higher probability for the trading team to extend him 2 years out from FA vs 1.

Last year, at 3 years control, how many teams would have had the prospect capital to trade for Burnes? or even if they did, would have given that much up?

This team needs to acquire big-league ready starting pitching prospects to replace Burnes, Woody and Lauer before OD/‘25. 

Waiting another year puts injury and or regression into the equation. Even with all things being equal, the return shrinks to less than half due to Burnes higher ‘23 salary.

For all of these reasons I believe the team trades Burnes this offseason.