clancyphile’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[clancyphile]

Went to a 2.0 version.

Burnes - signed to 8-year, $250 million deal, with $90 million deferred (paid out over 30 years - going full Bobby Bonilla).

Woodruff - signed to 6 year, $120 million deal, with $30 million deferred (paid out over 15 years)

Willy Adames - signed to 6-year, $90 million deal, with $15 million deferred (paid out over 15 years)

Eric Lauer - signed to 5-year $30 million deal

Adrian Houser, signed to 4-year, $18 million deal (two team options at $6 million each, $2 million buyout for first option, $1 million buyout for second option).

• C: Victor Caratini ($2.80M)
• 1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M)
• 2B: Brice Turang ($0.7M)
• 3B: Luis Urias ($4.30M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($12.5M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($22M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)
• RF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.25M)
• DH: Keston Hiura ($2.00M)
• Bench OF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• Utility: Jace Peterson ($2.5M)
• Utility: Mike Broussard ($1.25M)
• Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)
• SP1: Corbin Burnes ($20M)
• SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($15M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($6M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($4.5M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.7M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Ethan Small ($0.70M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.10M)
• RP: Brent Suter ($3.10M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.00M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($0.7M)

Payroll is 9.08% under budget

[Robocaller]

Burnes won't make THAT much. He still has 2 arbitration years. Woodruff is also marginally overpaid. Lauer would require more (his arb. estimate is 5.2 in 2022; he'll average more than $6M on a 5 year contract (maybe $50M?). And your 2022 $ estimates on these extensions are too high--salaries will increase over time.

Way too much deferred money. Maybe do it for Burnes, but not the rest.

You're bringing back the same guys (plus Turang and Frelick); only hope is that players improve.

 

 

 

[clancyphile]

Buying out free agency and getting cost certainty is worth it, I think. Keeping Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff also worth it, with $6 million in deferred money for 15 years - not horrible.

More importantly, the plan would be to flip Lauer/Houser if enough young starters push their way up through the minors.

Turang and Frelick are better options, and cheaper, I think. Plus, Wiemer could force his way up. In that case, we move on from Tellez.

Renfroe should net some prospects in a deal.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They will never, ever defer that kind of money. The Mets are a literal laughing stock of the league with that Bonilla contract, yet you continue to hold it up as some sort of gold standard that teams should continue to do. Kicking the can down the road does not eliminate anything. It just gets you in a financial mess. 

I don't get your addiction this this idea. At all.

[Fear The Chorizo]

all that's missing is a trade to somehow get Cooper Hummel in the heart of the Brewers order and giving him a 14-yr $137.5-million dollar extension with $98M in Kohls cash.

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

They will never, ever defer that kind of money. The Mets are a literal laughing stock of the league with that Bonilla contract, yet you continue to hold it up as some sort of gold standard that teams should continue to do. Kicking the can down the road does not eliminate anything. It just gets you in a financial mess. 

I don't get your addiction this this idea. At all.

Again...the people laughing at the Mets are doing so without a good reason. In THAT situation, it worked out well. Mets go to a World Series and they end up with David Wright as compensation for the player they got with the savings from the Bonilla deferred compensation.

This also isn't even REMOTELY similar to Bobby Bonilla's deal. The Mets had Bobby Bonilla ALREADY on the books. They traded away a nearly 6M dollar contract to go out and add an ace who was the NLCS MVP and pitched them to the World Series. A guy coming off a 22-4 season 2.90 ERA ~6.7 WAR season in which he was a Cy Young runner up. 

The Brewers are deferring 90M here and they're not getting anything for it. 

Deferring 90M is more like the Nationals with Scherzer or Strausburg making it make less sense here than Bonilla. 

 

In this scenario, the Brewers just blow out the future for no actual upgrade over last year. Why would we do that?

[clancyphile]

27 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Again...the people laughing at the Mets are doing so without a good reason. In THAT situation, it worked out well. Mets go to a World Series and they end up with David Wright as compensation for the player they got with the savings from the Bonilla deferred compensation.

This also isn't even REMOTELY similar to Bobby Bonilla's deal. The Mets had Bobby Bonilla ALREADY on the books. They traded away a nearly 6M dollar contract to go out and add an ace who was the NLCS MVP and pitched them to the World Series. A guy coming off a 22-4 season 2.90 ERA ~6.7 WAR season in which he was a Cy Young runner up. 

The Brewers are deferring 90M here and they're not getting anything for it. 

Deferring 90M is more like the Nationals with Scherzer or Strausburg making it make less sense here than Bonilla. 

 

In this scenario, the Brewers just blow out the future for no actual upgrade over last year. Why would we do that?

The Brewers get a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for eight years at the top of the rotation. Even if you don't keep Woodruff, you have Burnes-Peralta-Lauer-Houser-Ashby as the top 5. Still a superb rotation.

Maybe Burnes doesn't go for it. But maybe he does, Is $3 million a year starting in 2031 really going to break the franchise? I'd argue it wouldn't.

[UpandIn]

Just now, clancyphile said:

The Brewers get a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for eight years at the top of the rotation. Even if you don't keep Woodruff, you have Burnes-Peralta-Lauer-Houser-Ashby as the top 5. Still a superb rotation.

Maybe Burnes doesn't go for it. But maybe he does, Is $3 million a year starting in 2031 really going to break the franchise? I'd argue it wouldn't.

I'd argue deferring 135M that doesn't actually improve this team right now is a...bad idea.

[clancyphile]

52 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I'd argue deferring 135M that doesn't actually improve this team right now is a...bad idea.

If it nets a World Series appearance or a championship, is it a bad idea?

The chances of the Brewers getting those are higher with Burnes/Woodruff/Adames than without them. Trades for prospects don't always work out. How well did the prospects the Marlins got for Yelich pan out for them?