Blameitontherum Payroll Blueprint

[Jeff Meyer]

Here is my 8 step plan for the 2023 Brewers Payroll. This is my get younger but sign important players to an extension.

1-non tender or allow to become free agents McCutcheon, Rogers, Rosenthal, Narvaez, Wong, Boxberger, Severino, J.Peterson

2-We Trade T.Taylor, Huira, Houser and H.Perez to Colorado for 3B Ryan McMahon ( 64 mill left thru 2027) 

3-Sign Hunter Renfro to 1 yr contract in his final Arby year. Yelich will move to primary DH role and Renfro will be primary RF and back up DH.

4-OF promote and sign Mitchell, Frelick and Ruiz for balance of OF spots. 

5-IF sign one year contracts for Tellez, Urias, Adames, and Brosseau. Promote Brice Turang to last IF spot. Ryan McMahon is starting 3B

6-Sign Caratini to a one year deal as starting Catcher. Promote either Alex Jackson or Mario Feliciano as back up.

7-Extend Corbin Burnes 6yr 90mill (15 mill annually) Extend Brandon Woodruff 5yr 60mill (12 mill annually) Sign Lauer to one yr deal. Remaining starters Peralta and Ashby are signed to longer deals

8-sign one year deals for D.Williams, M.Bush, Strezlecki, Perdomo, Milner, Cousins and Topa to fill out Bullpen.

This is not a tear down it allows us to sign to long term deals both Burnes and Woodruff. Also we obtain a veteran left handed 3B in McMahon who is under contract for 5 more years. Yelich moves to DH allowing 3 prospects Mitchell, Frelick, and Ruiz and opportunity to get to the majors. Also Urias moves to a better fit at 2B and Turang and Brosseau become the lefty righty utilities.

Burnes 15mill, Woodruff 12mill, Peralta 3.5mill, Lauer5.2mill, Ashby 1.0mill, Williams 3.2mill, Bush 2.0 mill,  Suter 3.1mill, Perdomo 1.0mill, Strezlecki 700k, Milner 700k, Cousins 700k, Topa 700k, Yelich 26mill, Renfro 11.2 mill, Mitchell 700k, Frelick 700k, Ruiz 700k, McMahon 11mill, Adames 9..2 mill, Tellez 5.3mill, Urias 4.3 mill, Brosseau 700k, Turang 700k, Caratini 2.8mill, Feliciano or Jackson 700k.

Note: I’m basing the extension for Burnes and Woodruff on contracts that are signed to comparable pitchers last year. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

We have a tool to use if you want player recommendations with salaries. When you submit the form, it posts to this forum.

https://brewerfanatic.com/payroll-blueprint

[wiguy94]

There's zero chance Burnes and Woodruff sign deals that cheap. That would make them comically underpaid.

[Robocaller]

Even though we'd not be trading anything super-valuable, I don't want McMahon; he's a bad hitter outside of Colorado. 
I think we'd need to get a catcher who at least challenges Feliciano for a roster spot. And another starting pitcher, if only a vet on a 1-year contract.

I think you underestimate what it would take to sign Burnes and Woodruff by at least $30M each.

Other than that, seems reasonable.

 

 

[Jopal78]

37 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Even though we'd not be trading anything super-valuable, I don't want McMahon; he's a bad hitter outside of Colorado. 
I think we'd need to get a catcher who at least challenges Feliciano for a roster spot. And another starting pitcher, if only a vet on a 1-year contract.

I think you underestimate what it would take to sign Burnes and Woodruff by at least $30M each.

Other than that, seems reasonable.

 

 

Not to mention the much esteemed Trade Simulator website indicates that value wise the Brewers would be giving up more talent than the Rockies with just Tyrone Taylor for McMahon and not even including the three other players. Stearns better check his work before agreeing to that one!?

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Not to mention the much esteemed Trade Simulator website indicates that value wise the Brewers would be giving up more talent than the Rockies with just Tyrone Taylor for McMahon and not even including the three other players. Stearns better check his work before agreeing to that one!?

He's a career 89 wRC+ hitter, and 94 and 95 rhe kast 2 seasons. He has an opt out after 2025 if he's top 5 in MVP voting, and he's set to make $10+ M a year. Taylor is a 107 wRC+ hitter coming off a 102 wRC+ season and still pre-arb, and probably top $10 M a year in arbitration.

[Jeff Meyer]

1 hour ago, Redd Vencher said:

He's a career 89 wRC+ hitter, and 94 and 95 rhe kast 2 seasons. He has an opt out after 2025 if he's top 5 in MVP voting, and he's set to make $10+ M a year. Taylor is a 107 wRC+ hitter coming off a 102 wRC+ season and still pre-arb, and probably top $10 M a year in arbitration.

This is the kind of feedback I’m looking for that you can’t get with most of Facebook blogs that Blog before thinking they just want  to hurl insults . So Thanks for that. Questions what do most of you think a Burnes Contract would look like ? What would a Woodruff contract look like ? If Brewers decide to trade either what would the trade look like ? Who would be good partners ? 

[Jeff Meyer]

5 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

There's zero chance Burnes and Woodruff sign deals that cheap. That would make them comically underpaid.

What would you think they would get ? 

[Jeff Meyer]

5 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Even though we'd not be trading anything super-valuable, I don't want McMahon; he's a bad hitter outside of Colorado. 
I think we'd need to get a catcher who at least challenges Feliciano for a roster spot. And another starting pitcher, if only a vet on a 1-year contract.

I think you underestimate what it would take to sign Burnes and Woodruff by at least $30M each.

Other than that, seems reasonable.

 

 

I hadn’t researched his splits that well and the road numbers leave a lot to be desired. What would be some other targets for 3B in your opinion ? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

57 minutes ago, Jeff Meyer said:

I hadn’t researched his splits that well and the road numbers leave a lot to be desired. What would be some other targets for 3B in your opinion ? 

Welcome to the site!

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, Jeff Meyer said:

This is the kind of feedback I’m looking for that you can’t get with most of Facebook blogs that Blog before thinking they just want  to hurl insults . So Thanks for that. Questions what do most of you think a Burnes Contract would look like ? What would a Woodruff contract look like ? If Brewers decide to trade either what would the trade look like ? Who would be good partners ? 

A comp for a Woodruff extension would be the extensions Castillo (5 year $108 M with 6th year option) and Musgrove (5 year $100 M). Burnes is getting $30-35 M AAV in FA, Unless he's willing to take a massive discount, I don't think there's a chance he comes back. I think he'd have already extended if he was willing to take a massive discount. I think the Blue Jays with their abundance of catching on the big league roster and pitching in the upper minors make the most sense in a trade for Burnes when looking at roster fits.

[Jeff Meyer]

49 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

A comp for a Woodruff extension would be the extensions Castillo (5 year $108 M with 6th year option) and Musgrove (5 year $100 M). Burnes is getting $30-35 M AAV in FA, Unless he's willing to take a massive discount, I don't think there's a chance he comes back. I think he'd have already extended if he was willing to take a massive discount. I think the Blue Jays with their abundance of catching on the big league roster and pitching in the upper minors make the most sense in a trade for Burnes when looking at roster fits.

Thanks food for thought I got to revamp my plan 

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, Jeff Meyer said:

I hadn’t researched his splits that well and the road numbers leave a lot to be desired. What would be some other targets for 3B in your opinion ? 

in a trade, Urshela would be a reasonable get. 

[Robocaller]

6 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

He's a career 89 wRC+ hitter, and 94 and 95 rhe kast 2 seasons. He has an opt out after 2025 if he's top 5 in MVP voting, and he's set to make $10+ M a year. Taylor is a 107 wRC+ hitter coming off a 102 wRC+ season and still pre-arb, and probably top $10 M a year in arbitration.

I don't understand the last phrase there. He is pre-arb, though if he were eligible he probably wouldn't get half of $10M.

[Redd Vencher]

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I don't understand the last phrase there. He is pre-arb, though if he were eligible he probably wouldn't get half of $10M.

It's worded poorly on my part. Trying to be quick while at work. I don't think Tyrone Taylor will top $10 M AAV in any of his future arb seasons.

[SF70]

7 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

A comp for a Woodruff extension would be the extensions Castillo (5 year $108 M with 6th year option) and Musgrove (5 year $100 M). Burnes is getting $30-35 M AAV in FA, Unless he's willing to take a massive discount, I don't think there's a chance he comes back. I think he'd have already extended if he was willing to take a massive discount. I think the Blue Jays with their abundance of catching on the big league roster and pitching in the upper minors make the most sense in a trade for Burnes when looking at roster fits.

Disagree that Toronto makes the most sense as a trade partner. If the team trades Burnes this offseason, they will want a future potential TOR arm in return, and close to being big-league ready as well and the Blue Jays best pitching prospects are 2-4 years away, which makes them too risky, imo.

The Dodgers make the most sense for Burnes, with Bobby Miller a potential future TOR starter and already at AAA. They have Pepiot, Vargas, Busch, all near big-league ready as well. 

With the Dodgers being Burnes home-town team, I’m guessing they’ll be thinking they can extend him to a below market deal so they just might have a little more incentive to trade some of their best prospects.

[Redd Vencher]

6 hours ago, SF70 said:

Disagree that Toronto makes the most sense as a trade partner. If the team trades Burnes this offseason, they will want a future potential TOR arm in return, and close to being big-league ready as well and the Blue Jays best pitching prospects are 2-4 years away, which makes them too risky, imo.

The Dodgers make the most sense for Burnes, with Bobby Miller a potential future TOR starter and already at AAA. They have Pepiot, Vargas, Busch, all near big-league ready as well. 

With the Dodgers being Burnes home-town team, I’m guessing they’ll be thinking they can extend him to a below market deal so they just might have a little more incentive to trade some of their best prospects.

The only arm in the top 10 that didn't finish in AA or AAA in 2022 is Brandon Barreira who was just drafted. The Dodgers are getting a bit long in the tooth with their position player group, so I think they probably won't want to move many of those guys in the upper minors. Discussing anything about Burnes trade will have to take the trade partner's MLB roster. Not saying the Dodgers wouldn't trade for Burnes, but there really isn't that pressing of a need to when they can play in the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes for example.

[SF70]

38 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

The only arm in the top 10 that didn't finish in AA or AAA in 2022 is Brandon Barreira who was just drafted. The Dodgers are getting a bit long in the tooth with their position player group, so I think they probably won't want to move many of those guys in the upper minors. Discussing anything about Burnes trade will have to take the trade partner's MLB roster. Not saying the Dodgers wouldn't trade for Burnes, but there really isn't that pressing of a need to when they can play in the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes for example.

Miller, Pepiot, and Vargas for Burnes seems about right. The Dodgers extending Burnes would be less term/money than competing with teams on a FA contract for Rodon.

MKE gets 2 big-league readies in Vargas and Pepiot and an arm for sometime post S2 of ‘23. 

[Brewcrew82]

49 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Miller, Pepiot, and Vargas for Burnes seems about right. The Dodgers extending Burnes would be less term/money than competing with teams on a FA contract for Rodon.

MKE gets 2 big-league readies in Vargas and Pepiot and an arm for sometime post S2 of ‘23. 

We can get Vargas and Pepiot for Adames. If we're trading Burnes to LA this offseason, the deal needs to begin with Cartaya. 

[Brewcrew82]

10 hours ago, SF70 said:

Disagree that Toronto makes the most sense as a trade partner. If the team trades Burnes this offseason, they will want a future potential TOR arm in return, and close to being big-league ready as well and the Blue Jays best pitching prospects are 2-4 years away, which makes them too risky, imo.

The Dodgers make the most sense for Burnes, with Bobby Miller a potential future TOR starter and already at AAA. They have Pepiot, Vargas, Busch, all near big-league ready as well. 

With the Dodgers being Burnes home-town team, I’m guessing they’ll be thinking they can extend him to a below market deal so they just might have a little more incentive to trade some of their best prospects.

The Blue Jays have a future potential TOR arm in AA by the name of Ricky Tiedemann, who was basically the pitching version of Chourio this year....Him and Moreno together would rival or exceed what the Dodgers could offer. 

[SF70]

42 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We can get Vargas and Pepiot for Adames. If we're trading Burnes to LA this offseason, the deal needs to begin with Cartaya. 

Miller is the prize. He’s the real TOR potential and Burnes eventual replacement. Pepiot helps the starter depth this season and Vargas is big-league ready.

Cartaya has roughly the same ETA as Quero, who a year from now could give Cartaya a run for his money as a top C prospect.

6-8 years of Burnes trumps a couple years of Adames for the Dodgers, imo.

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Miller is the prize. He’s the real TOR potential and Burnes eventual replacement. Pepiot helps the starter depth this season and Vargas is big-league ready.

Cartaya has roughly the same ETA as Quero, who a year from now could give Cartaya a run for his money as a top C prospect.

6-8 years of Burnes trumps a couple years of Adames for the Dodgers, imo.

 

 

Honestly, with the Burnes trade, I'd just want to get as much high-level talent as you can, rather than worrying about how everything fits organizationally. That's how it needs to be for a small-market team. Cartaya is a future star. I'd want him and Miller, or conversely, Moreno/Kirk and Tiedemann if I'm going to deal Burnes at this point. 

[SF70]

55 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The Blue Jays have a future potential TOR arm in AA by the name of Ricky Tiedemann, who was basically the pitching version of Chourio this year....Him and Moreno together would rival or exceed what the Dodgers could offer. 

Tiedemann is at least a half year and more likely a full year behind Bobby Miller and imo, not quite the prospect Miller is. 

Getting 2 big-league readies, and another near BLR trumps anything I’ve seen out there as far as a potential trade package for Burnes. 

It extends the SP pitching train we have now far into the future, without interruption, and with a Quintana FA signing, still allows for this team to contend this coming season.
 

[SF70]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Honestly, with the Burnes trade, I'd just want to get as much high-level talent as you can, rather than worrying about how everything fits organizationally. That's how it needs to be for a small-market team. Cartaya is a future star. I'd want him and Miller, or conversely, Moreno/Kirk and Tiedemann if I'm going to deal Burnes at this point. 

Pepiot is no slouch, and Vargas could also be a star. Most importantly the development arc with Pepiot & Miller fits the need for big-armed starters in this teams ‘25 rotation.

[Brewcrew82]

45 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Tiedemann is at least a half year and more likely a full year behind Bobby Miller and imo, not quite the prospect Miller is. 

Getting 2 big-league readies, and another near BLR trumps anything I’ve seen out there as far as a potential trade package for Burnes. 

It extends the SP pitching train we have now far into the future, without interruption, and with a Quintana FA signing, still allows for this team to contend this coming season.
 

Bobby Miller is the sexy name, but I would argue that Tiedemann has surpassed him as a prospect. He's three years younger than Miller and absolutely dominated while moving from low A all the way to AA. Meanwhile, Bobby Miller struggled in AA this year. With three plus to plus plus pitches and great command, Tiedemann might have the best upside-floor combo for a minor league pitcher this side of Grayson Rodriguez and Eury Perez. 

Again, as a small-market team, we shouldn't place too much of an emphasis on how close certain prospects are to the majors or what position they play. It should be about talent and upside. Doing otherwise is how you end up on the losing end of trades. Hence, if we're going to trade Burnes, a top 3 pitcher in the game with 2 full years of control, it has to be for premium talent. Moreno and Tiedemann, two premium minor league talents, would accomplish that better than a Dodgers trade sans Cartaya. Same with a Rodriguez and Holiday package from the Orioles.