Article: Brewers Payroll Preview: How Much can they Spend?

[Lajitas]

Ah, to live the life of a cherry picker.

[owbc]

Unfortunately the past 3 years does not predict the next 3 years. We may have already burned the peak of both Burnes and Woodruff.

It's frustrating to watch the Phillies make the run that we should have made with Burnes and Woodruff, but you need more than that, and you need some luck. 

 

 

[owbc]

Unfortunately the past 3 years does not predict the next 3 years. We may have already burned the peak of both Burnes and Woodruff.

It's frustrating to watch the Phillies make the run that we should have made with Burnes and Woodruff, but you need more than that, and you need some luck. 

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

Ah, to live the life of a cherry picker.

And which stat did I cherry pick, exactly, "Mr. I literally signed up today and am going to start calling people names"? These are as fundamental as it gets for pitching. I guess I could've included SIERA, but it wouldn't make a difference.

[Brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

Ah, to live the life of a cherry picker.

And which stat did I cherry pick, exactly, "Mr. I literally signed up today and am going to start calling people names"? These are as fundamental as it gets for pitching. I guess I could've included SIERA, but it wouldn't make a difference.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, owbc said:

Unfortunately the past 3 years does not predict the next 3 years. We may have already burned the peak of both Burnes and Woodruff.

It's frustrating to watch the Phillies make the run that we should have made with Burnes and Woodruff, but you need more than that, and you need some luck. 

 

 

Of course, the future will always be uncertain. But looking at the last three years, particularly with respect to xFIP and SIERA is as good as it gets in being able to predict it for pitchers. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, owbc said:

Unfortunately the past 3 years does not predict the next 3 years. We may have already burned the peak of both Burnes and Woodruff.

It's frustrating to watch the Phillies make the run that we should have made with Burnes and Woodruff, but you need more than that, and you need some luck. 

 

 

Of course, the future will always be uncertain. But looking at the last three years, particularly with respect to xFIP and SIERA is as good as it gets in being able to predict it for pitchers. 

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Of course, the future will always be uncertain. But looking at the last three years, particularly with respect to xFIP and SIERA is as good as it gets in being able to predict it for pitchers. 

Burnes and Woodruff are 27 and 29.

Nola and Wheeler are 29 and 32.

Not sure how the argument could be made that they've "burnt their peaks."

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Of course, the future will always be uncertain. But looking at the last three years, particularly with respect to xFIP and SIERA is as good as it gets in being able to predict it for pitchers. 

Burnes and Woodruff are 27 and 29.

Nola and Wheeler are 29 and 32.

Not sure how the argument could be made that they've "burnt their peaks."

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Burnes and Woodruff are 27 and 29.

Nola and Wheeler are 29 and 32.

Not sure how the argument could be made that they've "burnt their peaks."

Yeah. Unless either suffers catastrophic injury, we have no reason not to expect more of the same going forward. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Burnes and Woodruff are 27 and 29.

Nola and Wheeler are 29 and 32.

Not sure how the argument could be made that they've "burnt their peaks."

Yeah. Unless either suffers catastrophic injury, we have no reason not to expect more of the same going forward. 

[monty57]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, 

I know you know that there is a big variance among prospects. While the slap-hitter in Rookie ball and Julio Rodriguez were both prospects coming into this season, no one would confuse the two.

As you have correctly stated, Burnes is in rare air talent-wise. Therefore, he would bring back someone closer to Julio Rodriguez than the aforementioned "slap-hitter in Rookie ball."

People bemoan starting prospects as if they are all the same. The guys we're looking at starting next year (potentially Mitchell, Frelick, and Turang) are our first round draft picks in 2018, 2020, and 2021 who have played well during their time in the minors. There's risk to starting anyone, but these are talented guys who we're hoping will be the core of the team for the next half-decade, not some random journeymen.

If we do trade Burnes, this group will get a really, really talented prospect as a teammate, and there would be a couple more talented guys added to the Nashville and Biloxi rosters to help out in a couple years. Adding that to a team that already has a lot of talent (even without Burnes) should allow for the Brewers to push for the NL Central title again in 2023.

I'd love for the Brewers to have the money to extend all of their current core, while adding a top prospect like Mitchell, Frelick, and Turang to the roster every year rather than all at once. That's how the Dodgers can operate. Unfortunately, the Brewers can't, so we are going to be more dependent on developing and/or trading for good prospects than bigger market teams. We will also have to become accustomed to trading away our favorite players while they are still good if we want to continue to have good young players as our core. That's just the reality of baseball for as long as MLB accepts that some teams should have a decided monetary advantage over others. 

[monty57]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, 

I know you know that there is a big variance among prospects. While the slap-hitter in Rookie ball and Julio Rodriguez were both prospects coming into this season, no one would confuse the two.

As you have correctly stated, Burnes is in rare air talent-wise. Therefore, he would bring back someone closer to Julio Rodriguez than the aforementioned "slap-hitter in Rookie ball."

People bemoan starting prospects as if they are all the same. The guys we're looking at starting next year (potentially Mitchell, Frelick, and Turang) are our first round draft picks in 2018, 2020, and 2021 who have played well during their time in the minors. There's risk to starting anyone, but these are talented guys who we're hoping will be the core of the team for the next half-decade, not some random journeymen.

If we do trade Burnes, this group will get a really, really talented prospect as a teammate, and there would be a couple more talented guys added to the Nashville and Biloxi rosters to help out in a couple years. Adding that to a team that already has a lot of talent (even without Burnes) should allow for the Brewers to push for the NL Central title again in 2023.

I'd love for the Brewers to have the money to extend all of their current core, while adding a top prospect like Mitchell, Frelick, and Turang to the roster every year rather than all at once. That's how the Dodgers can operate. Unfortunately, the Brewers can't, so we are going to be more dependent on developing and/or trading for good prospects than bigger market teams. We will also have to become accustomed to trading away our favorite players while they are still good if we want to continue to have good young players as our core. That's just the reality of baseball for as long as MLB accepts that some teams should have a decided monetary advantage over others. 

[Timmmmmmy]

May not be popular, but I wouldn’t extend Woodruff if he wants 1-2 starter money at 4-5 yrs. 3 yrs maybe. This team can’t afford massive contracts for players, particularly aging ones - too risky as small market. I would also try to trade Yelich for low level prospects to unload his contract, then go after Burnes extension and a 3B free agent. Or trade Renfroe and Urias for a 3B. Let Feliciano catch. No Contreras Please!! Let Wong go for Turang. Bring up Frelick. And use any remaining  money freed up to go after SP and RP!!  Finally could have a team that gets on base with some blended power. 

[Timmmmmmy]

May not be popular, but I wouldn’t extend Woodruff if he wants 1-2 starter money at 4-5 yrs. 3 yrs maybe. This team can’t afford massive contracts for players, particularly aging ones - too risky as small market. I would also try to trade Yelich for low level prospects to unload his contract, then go after Burnes extension and a 3B free agent. Or trade Renfroe and Urias for a 3B. Let Feliciano catch. No Contreras Please!! Let Wong go for Turang. Bring up Frelick. And use any remaining  money freed up to go after SP and RP!!  Finally could have a team that gets on base with some blended power. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Timmmmmmy said:

May not be popular, but I wouldn’t extend Woodruff if he wants 1-2 starter money at 4-5 yrs. 3 yrs maybe. This team can’t afford massive contracts for players, particularly aging ones - too risky as small market. I would also try to trade Yelich for low level prospects to unload his contract, then go after Burnes extension and a 3B free agent. Or trade Renfroe and Urias for a 3B. Let Feliciano catch. No Contreras Please!! Let Wong go for Turang. Bring up Frelick. And use any remaining  money freed up to go after SP and RP!!  Finally could have a team that gets on base with some blended power. 

Welcome to the board!

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Timmmmmmy said:

May not be popular, but I wouldn’t extend Woodruff if he wants 1-2 starter money at 4-5 yrs. 3 yrs maybe. This team can’t afford massive contracts for players, particularly aging ones - too risky as small market. I would also try to trade Yelich for low level prospects to unload his contract, then go after Burnes extension and a 3B free agent. Or trade Renfroe and Urias for a 3B. Let Feliciano catch. No Contreras Please!! Let Wong go for Turang. Bring up Frelick. And use any remaining  money freed up to go after SP and RP!!  Finally could have a team that gets on base with some blended power. 

Welcome to the board!

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Timmmmmmy said:

May not be popular, but I wouldn’t extend Woodruff if he wants 1-2 starter money at 4-5 yrs. 3 yrs maybe. This team can’t afford massive contracts for players, particularly aging ones - too risky as small market. I would also try to trade Yelich for low level prospects to unload his contract, then go after Burnes extension and a 3B free agent. Or trade Renfroe and Urias for a 3B. Let Feliciano catch. No Contreras Please!! Let Wong go for Turang. Bring up Frelick. And use any remaining  money freed up to go after SP and RP!!  Finally could have a team that gets on base with some blended power. 

I agree with staying away from Contreras, not that we have a realistic chance at signing him anyways, but I completely disagree with giving Feliciano the starting catcher spot. He was atrocious on the defensive end in Nashville this season. Catcher is the position where you can least afford to sacrifice defense, and it's not like his offensive production has been great either. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Timmmmmmy said:

May not be popular, but I wouldn’t extend Woodruff if he wants 1-2 starter money at 4-5 yrs. 3 yrs maybe. This team can’t afford massive contracts for players, particularly aging ones - too risky as small market. I would also try to trade Yelich for low level prospects to unload his contract, then go after Burnes extension and a 3B free agent. Or trade Renfroe and Urias for a 3B. Let Feliciano catch. No Contreras Please!! Let Wong go for Turang. Bring up Frelick. And use any remaining  money freed up to go after SP and RP!!  Finally could have a team that gets on base with some blended power. 

I agree with staying away from Contreras, not that we have a realistic chance at signing him anyways, but I completely disagree with giving Feliciano the starting catcher spot. He was atrocious on the defensive end in Nashville this season. Catcher is the position where you can least afford to sacrifice defense, and it's not like his offensive production has been great either. 

[Lajitas]

7 hours ago, monty57 said:

As you have correctly stated, Burnes is in rare air talent-wise. Therefore, he would bring back someone closer to Julio Rodriguez than the aforementioned "slap-hitter in Rookie ball."

The Luis Castillo trade to the Mariners is a good floor for the prospects that would be coming back, if Burnes is traded.  Castillo was traded at the deadline with one year of arbitration remaining, and is two years older than Burnes.

The Reds got two overall top 50 prospects (according to Baseball America; one was actually top 15 in many rankings), the Mariners #10 and a low-A flier.

[Lajitas]

7 hours ago, monty57 said:

As you have correctly stated, Burnes is in rare air talent-wise. Therefore, he would bring back someone closer to Julio Rodriguez than the aforementioned "slap-hitter in Rookie ball."

The Luis Castillo trade to the Mariners is a good floor for the prospects that would be coming back, if Burnes is traded.  Castillo was traded at the deadline with one year of arbitration remaining, and is two years older than Burnes.

The Reds got two overall top 50 prospects (according to Baseball America; one was actually top 15 in many rankings), the Mariners #10 and a low-A flier.

[monty57]

19 hours ago, Timmmmmmy said:

May not be popular, but I wouldn’t extend Woodruff if he wants 1-2 starter money at 4-5 yrs. 3 yrs maybe. This team can’t afford massive contracts for players, particularly aging ones - too risky as small market. I would also try to trade Yelich for low level prospects to unload his contract, then go after Burnes extension and a 3B free agent. Or trade Renfroe and Urias for a 3B. Let Feliciano catch. No Contreras Please!! Let Wong go for Turang. Bring up Frelick. And use any remaining  money freed up to go after SP and RP!!  Finally could have a team that gets on base with some blended power. 

First off, welcome to the board.

I agree with you on the Woodruff extension. 

As to Yelich, Baseballtradevalues.com has him at a -126.4 value. To put that in perspective, Burnes has a +78.3 value. In other words, if we wanted to get rid of Yelich and his contract, we would have to give the other team Burnes and still pay a significant portion of Yelich's contract.

Yelich isn't going anywhere, so we'll just have to hope that he continues to at least be an above average player like he was in '22. He won't be worth the money he's being paid, but at least he's helping the team. He'll be here through 2028 and will be paid deferred salary through 2042, so it's not worth the stress to worry about how to get rid of him... no one is taking that contract.

And that is good enough reason to once again state that I agree with you that offering too long an extension to Woodruff (who would be going into his 32-year-old season in the first year of the extension) probably wouldn't be a prudent use of the team's money.

If Woodruff would take a two-year extension (which I can't imaging he would take), then extend him. If not, then trade him away before he hits free agency for some highly talented young prospects and remain "continually competitive." 

[monty57]

19 hours ago, Timmmmmmy said:

May not be popular, but I wouldn’t extend Woodruff if he wants 1-2 starter money at 4-5 yrs. 3 yrs maybe. This team can’t afford massive contracts for players, particularly aging ones - too risky as small market. I would also try to trade Yelich for low level prospects to unload his contract, then go after Burnes extension and a 3B free agent. Or trade Renfroe and Urias for a 3B. Let Feliciano catch. No Contreras Please!! Let Wong go for Turang. Bring up Frelick. And use any remaining  money freed up to go after SP and RP!!  Finally could have a team that gets on base with some blended power. 

First off, welcome to the board.

I agree with you on the Woodruff extension. 

As to Yelich, Baseballtradevalues.com has him at a -126.4 value. To put that in perspective, Burnes has a +78.3 value. In other words, if we wanted to get rid of Yelich and his contract, we would have to give the other team Burnes and still pay a significant portion of Yelich's contract.

Yelich isn't going anywhere, so we'll just have to hope that he continues to at least be an above average player like he was in '22. He won't be worth the money he's being paid, but at least he's helping the team. He'll be here through 2028 and will be paid deferred salary through 2042, so it's not worth the stress to worry about how to get rid of him... no one is taking that contract.

And that is good enough reason to once again state that I agree with you that offering too long an extension to Woodruff (who would be going into his 32-year-old season in the first year of the extension) probably wouldn't be a prudent use of the team's money.

If Woodruff would take a two-year extension (which I can't imaging he would take), then extend him. If not, then trade him away before he hits free agency for some highly talented young prospects and remain "continually competitive." 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

The amount of money the team spends is not as important as the direction this team decides to go.  I don't think the Brewers will acquire a lot of free agents.  Maybe some relievers.  I think everyone will be back, but one caveat will be everyone is available at the right price.  I think we might see a slow churn of the current core of Yelich, Adames, Burnes, Woodruff, and Hader.  To that point Hader has already moved on.  I think the Brewers will use 2023 to continue to develop a new core while remaining competitive.  Last year, Ashby became part of this new core along with Yelich and Peralta.  If a few of Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Turang, Black, Ruiz, Small, and Chourio develop the Brewers have the makings of a new core of players for the next 5-7 years. 

 

 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

The amount of money the team spends is not as important as the direction this team decides to go.  I don't think the Brewers will acquire a lot of free agents.  Maybe some relievers.  I think everyone will be back, but one caveat will be everyone is available at the right price.  I think we might see a slow churn of the current core of Yelich, Adames, Burnes, Woodruff, and Hader.  To that point Hader has already moved on.  I think the Brewers will use 2023 to continue to develop a new core while remaining competitive.  Last year, Ashby became part of this new core along with Yelich and Peralta.  If a few of Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Turang, Black, Ruiz, Small, and Chourio develop the Brewers have the makings of a new core of players for the next 5-7 years.