Article: Brewers Payroll Preview: How Much can they Spend?

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, JosephC said:

 But if you want to run with the big boys, might as well forget about that until MLB and MLBPA fixes the CBA 

The root problem for teams in the Brewers' financial situation is that I don't think MLB sees anything as needing to be fixed.

And the MLBPA certainly doesn't.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, JosephC said:

 But if you want to run with the big boys, might as well forget about that until MLB and MLBPA fixes the CBA 

The root problem for teams in the Brewers' financial situation is that I don't think MLB sees anything as needing to be fixed.

And the MLBPA certainly doesn't.

[owbc]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they go ahead and trade/sign for SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games isn't "silly", it's reality. 

It's what separates us from the Diamondbacks, but far does it separate us from any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs? We're in a deadball era, Burnes and Woodruff are certainly in the top tier of MLB starters, but there are more like 20-25 starters who could be placed in that bucket, not 5-10. And there are more and more of them coming up from the minors every year. 

Burnes and Woodruff certainly have the potential to do in the postseason what Nola and Wheeler are doing for Philadelphia. In fact, they might have done that in the 2021 playoffs if that hadn't run into the Braves, who had the rotation to match them. 

 

[owbc]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they go ahead and trade/sign for SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games isn't "silly", it's reality. 

It's what separates us from the Diamondbacks, but far does it separate us from any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs? We're in a deadball era, Burnes and Woodruff are certainly in the top tier of MLB starters, but there are more like 20-25 starters who could be placed in that bucket, not 5-10. And there are more and more of them coming up from the minors every year. 

Burnes and Woodruff certainly have the potential to do in the postseason what Nola and Wheeler are doing for Philadelphia. In fact, they might have done that in the 2021 playoffs if that hadn't run into the Braves, who had the rotation to match them. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, owbc said:

It's what separates us from the Diamondbacks, but far does it separate us from any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs? We're in a deadball era, Burnes and Woodruff are certainly in the top tier of MLB starters, but there are more like 20-25 starters who could be placed in that bucket, not 5-10. And there are more and more of them coming up from the minors every year. 

Burnes and Woodruff certainly have the potential to do in the postseason what Nola and Wheeler are doing for Philadelphia. In fact, they might have done that in the 2021 playoffs if that hadn't run into the Braves, who had the rotation to match them. 

 

Burnes has been the best starter in baseball since 2020. No one has numbers across the board as good as him and over as many innings as him in that time frame. He's in the "bucket of buckets" with DeGrom (when healthy) and probably Scherzer. Woodruff is in the "bucket" after that, and even then there's only 5-8 guys in it at most with him (Wheeler, Nola, Cole, etc.). So, yes, other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation. Certainly not the Cardinals, who are our primary competition in the NL Central. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, owbc said:

It's what separates us from the Diamondbacks, but far does it separate us from any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs? We're in a deadball era, Burnes and Woodruff are certainly in the top tier of MLB starters, but there are more like 20-25 starters who could be placed in that bucket, not 5-10. And there are more and more of them coming up from the minors every year. 

Burnes and Woodruff certainly have the potential to do in the postseason what Nola and Wheeler are doing for Philadelphia. In fact, they might have done that in the 2021 playoffs if that hadn't run into the Braves, who had the rotation to match them. 

 

Burnes has been the best starter in baseball since 2020. No one has numbers across the board as good as him and over as many innings as him in that time frame. He's in the "bucket of buckets" with DeGrom (when healthy) and probably Scherzer. Woodruff is in the "bucket" after that, and even then there's only 5-8 guys in it at most with him (Wheeler, Nola, Cole, etc.). So, yes, other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation. Certainly not the Cardinals, who are our primary competition in the NL Central. 

 

[Lajitas]

40 minutes ago, Patrick425 said:

Seems likely to me that the Brewers will trade one of their starting pitchers in the off season since they have six if you include Ashby (I don't think they gave him that extension so that he can pitch out of the bullpen). The question is if it will be one of their aces or a back of the rotation guy.

Seems more likely they'll keep all six, plus sign another.  Rotational depth is something Stearns talked about at his recent presser.

[Lajitas]

40 minutes ago, Patrick425 said:

Seems likely to me that the Brewers will trade one of their starting pitchers in the off season since they have six if you include Ashby (I don't think they gave him that extension so that he can pitch out of the bullpen). The question is if it will be one of their aces or a back of the rotation guy.

Seems more likely they'll keep all six, plus sign another.  Rotational depth is something Stearns talked about at his recent presser.

[Lajitas]

20 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation.

 

I'd put the Dodgers in there.

[Lajitas]

20 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation.

 

I'd put the Dodgers in there.

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

I'd put the Dodgers in there.

Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings. 

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

I'd put the Dodgers in there.

Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings. 

[Redd Vencher]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they go ahead and trade/sign for SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games isn't "silly", it's reality. 

We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league. 

[Redd Vencher]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they go ahead and trade/sign for SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games isn't "silly", it's reality. 

We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league. 

[Lajitas]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings. 

Urias had a higher WAR, better FIP and lower WHIP than Burnes while leading the league in ERA and ERA+.  Gonsolin's FIP was 0.20 higher than Woodruff, but had a higher WAR and an incredible 0.875 WHIP in just 23 less innings than Woodruff.  The only advantage Burnes and Woodruff have over those two is they strike more out.

[Lajitas]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings. 

Urias had a higher WAR, better FIP and lower WHIP than Burnes while leading the league in ERA and ERA+.  Gonsolin's FIP was 0.20 higher than Woodruff, but had a higher WAR and an incredible 0.875 WHIP in just 23 less innings than Woodruff.  The only advantage Burnes and Woodruff have over those two is they strike more out.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

Urias had a higher WAR, better FIP and lower WHIP than Burnes while leading the league in ERA and ERA+.  Gonsolin's FIP was 0.20 higher than Woodruff, but had a higher WAR and an incredible 0.875 WHIP in just 23 less innings than Woodruff.  The only advantage Burnes and Woodruff have over those two is they strike more out.

I was talking about the last three years. You don't become among the best in the game based on one season. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

Urias had a higher WAR, better FIP and lower WHIP than Burnes while leading the league in ERA and ERA+.  Gonsolin's FIP was 0.20 higher than Woodruff, but had a higher WAR and an incredible 0.875 WHIP in just 23 less innings than Woodruff.  The only advantage Burnes and Woodruff have over those two is they strike more out.

I was talking about the last three years. You don't become among the best in the game based on one season. 

[Lajitas]

If you want to talk about the last three years, you have to bring Kershaw into the discussion.

All I'm saying is the top of the Dodger rotation is as good as anybody, certainly as good as the Mets and the Phillies in addition to Milwaukee, and you completely dismiss them.

[Lajitas]

If you want to talk about the last three years, you have to bring Kershaw into the discussion.

All I'm saying is the top of the Dodger rotation is as good as anybody, certainly as good as the Mets and the Phillies in addition to Milwaukee, and you completely dismiss them.

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league. 

Yes, But these rosters are completely different. Our strength right now is by far our starting pitching. Take that away and we have little else to fall back on ATM. A Burnes/Woodruff trade, in which you eat away at our major strength, wouldn't win us more games this year without major outside additions, which is a huge ask with our limited resources. 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league. 

Yes, But these rosters are completely different. Our strength right now is by far our starting pitching. Take that away and we have little else to fall back on ATM. A Burnes/Woodruff trade, in which you eat away at our major strength, wouldn't win us more games this year without major outside additions, which is a huge ask with our limited resources. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Lajitas said:

If you want to talk about the last three years, you have to bring Kershaw into the discussion.

All I'm saying is the top of the Dodger rotation is as good as anybody, certainly as good as the Mets and the Phillies in addition to Milwaukee, and you completely dismiss them.

I'm not saying they're not elite starting pitchers or an elite top of the rotation. I'm just saying that they don't quite match up to those teams, which is validated by the statistical comparison below. 

Since 2020:

Burnes and Woodruff: 822.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 2.86 xFIP,  31.85 K%, 25.55 K-BB% 24.6 fWAR

Wheeler and Nola: 894.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.04 xFIP, 28.25 K%, 23.05 K-BB%, 25.9 fWAR

DeGrom and Scherzer: 616.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.56 xFIP, 37.35 K%, 32.4 K-BB% 21.3 fWAR

Urias and Kershaw: 716 IP, 2.72 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 21.45 K-BB%, 17.9 fWAR

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Lajitas said:

If you want to talk about the last three years, you have to bring Kershaw into the discussion.

All I'm saying is the top of the Dodger rotation is as good as anybody, certainly as good as the Mets and the Phillies in addition to Milwaukee, and you completely dismiss them.

I'm not saying they're not elite starting pitchers or an elite top of the rotation. I'm just saying that they don't quite match up to those teams, which is validated by the statistical comparison below. 

Since 2020:

Burnes and Woodruff: 822.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 2.86 xFIP,  31.85 K%, 25.55 K-BB% 24.6 fWAR

Wheeler and Nola: 894.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.04 xFIP, 28.25 K%, 23.05 K-BB%, 25.9 fWAR

DeGrom and Scherzer: 616.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.56 xFIP, 37.35 K%, 32.4 K-BB% 21.3 fWAR

Urias and Kershaw: 716 IP, 2.72 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 21.45 K-BB%, 17.9 fWAR

[Lajitas]

Ah, to live the life of a cherry picker.