Robocaller’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint: Reboot Option

[Robocaller]

This is reboot option based on the trade value site.
Trade Hunter Renfroe to Twins for 3B Gio Urshela.

Trade Adames, Burnes, Taylor, and Feliciano to LAD for:

Walker Buehler, SP change to Landon Knack, SP who will start at AA.

Diego Cartaya, C (AAA-MLB)

Miguel Vargas, 3B-1B-OF

Ryan Pepiot, SP

Michael Grove, SP (stash in Nashville)

Bobby Miller, SP (stash in Nashville)

Maddux Bruns, SP (start in A or A+)

Trade Woodruff to LAA for:

Logan O'Hoppe, C (AAA-MLB)

Edgar Quero, C (Starts in A+; our Quero's younger brother)

Chase Silseth, SP (Stash in Nashville)

Vargas would probably play in the field most games, and could bounce between 1B, 3B, and the OF.  Yelich would DH at least half the time.

I acquired two C who are pretty ready for the majors; ideally they'd motivate a trade of Caratini before or during the season.

The 2nd Utility guy could be one of those AAAA guys we seem to covet, or we could acquire someone. The 3 INF starters don't really need a platoon partner.

I acquired some pitchers who might be ready for a late-season callup, in the mix with Gasser. One might start in the majors (in the bullpen) or it could be one of our current guys, even Uribe. Whomever it is will be a minimum salary kind of guy.

There will be some growing pains sorting out who is ready for the majors, but I really think things could be looking good by the end of the season.

• C: Victor Caratini ($2.80M)
• 1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M)
• 2B: Luis Urias ($4.50M)
• 3B: Gio Urshela ($7.50M)
• SS: Brice Turang ($0.7M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M)
• CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• RF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.7M)
• DH: Miguel Vargas ($0.7M)
• 4th OF: Esteury Ruiz/Wiemer ($0.7M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
• Utility: Generic Scrub ($0.70M)
• Backup C: L. O'Hoppe/Diego Cartaya ($0.70M)
• SP1: Walker Buehler ($5.5M) Change to Michael Grove (or other) ($0.7M)
• SP2: Ryan Pepiot ($0.8M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M)
• SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1.2M)
• RP: Brad Boxberger ($3.00M)
• RP: Luis Perdomo ($1.00M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Adrian Houser ($3.50M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)
• RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M)
• RP: Peter Strzelecki ($0.7M)
• RP: random/gasser/small, etc ($07M)

Payroll is 33.54% under budget More like 37% under budget after removing Buehler.

[Robocaller]

Any way a moderator could add "reboot option" to the title?  I don't seem to be able to edit it.

[Jopal78]

Not a bad idea to do a tear down, but there would be more than growing pains; that team doesn’t win 75 games.  Walker Buehler is going to miss most if not all of ‘23 and is a free agent after ‘24.  

[wiguy94]

Cartaya hasn't played a single AA game yet, so he's still a bit away from hitting the MLB. 

[Brewcrew82]

Yeah, there's no point to the Brewers acquiring Buehler as he's currently on the mend from TJ surgery, will become a FA at the same time as Burnes, and has shown diminished skills recently. This is a straight-up rebuild, no doubt about it. Which conflicts with every statement Stearns has made. 

[Robocaller]

My bad for not doing due diligence on Buehler. It doesn't matter; he was only there as a bridge to some of the younger guys (who have had some ML experience, but haven't established themselves yet).  Swap Buehler for Landon Knack, a pitcher who should probably start 2023 in AA. Move Grove, Miller or Silseth into the ML rotation; this reduces how sanguine I'd be on being good by the end of 2023, but is beneficial in the long term.

And MLB.com has a 2023 MLB debut for Cartaya. Again, it doesn't matter, because O'Hoppe is definitely ready for the majors. It just means the Brewers won't be in a position to trade Caratini until later in the season, or in the next offseason.

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is a straight-up rebuild, no doubt about it. Which conflicts with every statement Stearns has made. 

Is it though? I concentrated on getting guys who were ML ready (or would be by the end of 2023). Good players.

Anyway, Eff Stearns. This was a nuclear option. I made another "blueprint" just working on the margins.

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

My bad for not doing due diligence on Buehler. It doesn't matter; he was only there as a bridge to some of the younger guys (who have had some ML experience, but haven't established themselves yet).  Swap Buehler for Landon Knack, a pitcher who should probably start 2023 in AA. Move Grove, Miller or Silseth into the ML rotation; this reduces how sanguine I'd be on being good by the end of 2023, but is beneficial in the long term.

And MLB.com has a 2023 MLB debut for Cartaya. Again, it doesn't matter, because O'Hoppe is definitely ready for the majors. It just means the Brewers won't be in a position to trade Caratini until later in the season, or in the next offseason.

Caratini is a free agent after ‘23

[UpandIn]

12 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, there's no point to the Brewers acquiring Buehler as he's currently on the mend from TJ surgery, will become a FA at the same time as Burnes, and has shown diminished skills recently. This is a straight-up rebuild, no doubt about it. Which conflicts with every statement Stearns has made. 

Definitely conflicts with what Stearns said, but...I don't agree there's no point in Buehler.

TBH, I saw that trade and I thought he was factoring Buehler's injury in as that's a...BIG haul for Burnes. 

Just Cartaya, Vargas, Pepiot, Miller is a whole lot. But that trade is actually pretty interesting with Buehler. See how he recovers, maybe a Tyler Glasnow type deal if he's on schedule and recovering next year. He's got elite stuff. I don't think the Dodgers would include Cartaya in that trade, but...even then, still a pretty nice return. 

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Definitely conflicts with what Stearns said, but...I don't agree there's no point in Buehler.

TBH, I saw that trade and I thought he was factoring Buehler's injury in as that's a...BIG haul for Burnes. 

Just Cartaya, Vargas, Pepiot, Miller is a whole lot. But that trade is actually pretty interesting with Buehler. See how he recovers, maybe a Tyler Glasnow type deal if he's on schedule and recovering next year. He's got elite stuff. I don't think the Dodgers would include Cartaya in that trade, but...even then, still a pretty nice return. 

 

 

it's not just Burnes. It's Burnes AND Adames. Which in value is basically equal to the Soto haul. 

[UpandIn]

55 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

it's not just Burnes. It's Burnes AND Adames. Which in value is basically equal to the Soto haul. 

LOL...I can't read. I don't know why I just saw Burnes, Taylor and Feliciano.

OK then...that's actually a pretty plausible return for the two then. 

Walker Buehler, SP

Diego Cartaya, C (AAA-MLB)

Miguel Vargas, 3B-1B-OF

Ryan Pepiot, SP

Michael Grove, SP (stash in Nashville)

Bobby Miller, SP (stash in Nashville)

Maddux Bruns, SP (start in A or A+)

If you're actually gonna re-load, that's a whoole lot of talent.

This would be a mix of that 2018 staff with a deep, deep BP and a couple of TOR arms(if you kept Woodruff-in which case, this trade actually makes more sense to me).

Gonna gut the offense, BUT, if you could fit Busch in there? Turang is hardly a sure thing at SS offensively, but if you can at least put Vargas, Busch on that IF, you'd have a deep, young team. Who knows what the staff will look like, but they'd at least be able to grow with our young position prospects. You're going to piss the fan base off quite a bit, but it could be intriguing in 2024.
Woodruff
Buehler
Miller
Peralta
Pepiot
Ashby(or swap him and Gasser and he actually could be a potential Hader like multi-inning reliever).

C-Cartaya/Quero
1B-Busch
2B-Vargas
SS-Turang
3B-Black
LF-Frelick
CF-Mitchell
RF-Wiemer
DH-Yelich

BP-Williams
Uribe
Grove
Stone
Gasser

That's like a 70M payroll, you keep an anchor in your rotation and you've got some players to potentially flip for position prospects. Buehler for instance, get him healthy and he's an ace. So you either try and give him a Glasnow type extension(probably on the low end) or you flip him as well. Lauer, Urias, Tellez.

2023 would be an interesting year. Potentially the top Farm System in the game, a lot of growing pains, but it'd get interesting after that. I'd be handing out Braves like extensions like Bobbleheads(to those who'd take them). 

 

Interesting idea anyway.

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Caratini is a free agent after ‘23

Well that works perfectly. Maybe we can trade him for a lottery ticket at the '23 deadline.

[Robocaller]

44 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Potentially the top Farm System in the game, 

 

 

It would be in the running, at least until a bunch of the players lose their rookie status.

[UpandIn]

45 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

It would be in the running, at least until a bunch of the players lose their rookie status.

Even after you graduate a lot of the players, IF you made this Dodgers trade, you're still looking at a loaded system the following year. Chourio, Quero, Black, Misioroski, Avina, Brown Jr and then Cartaya could be a top 10 along with Chourio, I expect Quero in the top ~40 or so next year.

The biggest problem is the Dodgers just aren't Padres like desperate. I think this is one of those trades that's equal on the trade machines and...makes sense in a vacuum, but I don't see the Dodgers giving up...possibly 36+ years of pretty premium quality prospects for 4 years of Adames and Burnes collectively and then what kinda amounts to throw in's with Feliciano and Taylor.

Maybe we go back to the Padres. They continue to draft well and have Merrill, Lysko, Snelling and some other nice talent STILL(as much as I like the Brewers recent drafted philosophy, I'd like to see them get a little more aggressive with young arms).

But again, as much as I want to see this team add a bat and run it back next year with their core, some smaller tweaks and our young guys, I don't think I could pass on that particular trade if the Dodgers were willing to. But when they can realistically spend ~300M on payroll, I think it's more likely they would go out and add a couple of those TOR arms like deGrom, Verlander, Rodon(or or two of those players) as well as either re-signing Turner or maybe they sign another SS. Correa would make a lot of sense for them given his age and productivity(plus I believe his tools will age better as Turner's speed is so vital and if he has to move off SS, it'd likely be to 2B or even the OF whereas I think Correa would make a GG 3B with his hands, range(even if diminished) and arm. 

 

 

No half measures though. If you're going to bring this squad back, go out and make a serious offer to Abreu. We've heard Attanasio talk about how they could fit ANY player or trade into the budget, not just this year, but the next 2-3 years. So instead of adding Soto and giving up equal value in prospects(which we lacked) then go after Abreu and push that payroll into the ~140-150 range...which I believe is still a reasonable range with the increasing revenue across the league.

[jay87shot]

I like most of these idea, however if this went down I would use the extra money to sign a player like Jose Abreu or a solid pitcher to a 2/3 year deal.

I think you could get about that value for Adames and Burnes but it might have to come in 2 seperate deals. I doubt the Dodgers would give up that much prospect value overall (although the Padres did for Soto).

[wntrtxn21]

12 hours ago, UpandIn said:

LOL...I can't read. I don't know why I just saw Burnes, Taylor and Feliciano.

OK then...that's actually a pretty plausible return for the two then. 

Walker Buehler, SP

Diego Cartaya, C (AAA-MLB)

Miguel Vargas, 3B-1B-OF

Ryan Pepiot, SP

Michael Grove, SP (stash in Nashville)

Bobby Miller, SP (stash in Nashville)

Maddux Bruns, SP (start in A or A+)

If you're actually gonna re-load, that's a whoole lot of talent.

This would be a mix of that 2018 staff with a deep, deep BP and a couple of TOR arms(if you kept Woodruff-in which case, this trade actually makes more sense to me).

Gonna gut the offense, BUT, if you could fit Busch in there? Turang is hardly a sure thing at SS offensively, but if you can at least put Vargas, Busch on that IF, you'd have a deep, young team. Who knows what the staff will look like, but they'd at least be able to grow with our young position prospects. You're going to piss the fan base off quite a bit, but it could be intriguing in 2024.
Woodruff
Buehler
Miller
Peralta
Pepiot
Ashby(or swap him and Gasser and he actually could be a potential Hader like multi-inning reliever).

C-Cartaya/Quero
1B-Busch
2B-Vargas
SS-Turang
3B-Black
LF-Frelick
CF-Mitchell
RF-Wiemer
DH-Yelich

BP-Williams
Uribe
Grove
Stone
Gasser

That's like a 70M payroll, you keep an anchor in your rotation and you've got some players to potentially flip for position prospects. Buehler for instance, get him healthy and he's an ace. So you either try and give him a Glasnow type extension(probably on the low end) or you flip him as well. Lauer, Urias, Tellez.

2023 would be an interesting year. Potentially the top Farm System in the game, a lot of growing pains, but it'd get interesting after that. I'd be handing out Braves like extensions like Bobbleheads(to those who'd take them). 

 

Interesting idea anyway.

This would be a tank job unlike any other.  Buehler had TJ surgery in late August and won't pitch until late 2023 if at all. The team would struggle to stay under triple digit losses and maybe set a team record for losses.  I can't imagine MA wanting to see attendance drop off to next to nothing. 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

This would be a tank job unlike any other.  Buehler had TJ surgery in late August and won't pitch until late 2023 if at all. The team would struggle to stay under triple digit losses and maybe set a team record for losses.  I can't imagine MA wanting to see attendance drop off to next to nothing. 

A tank job unlike any other?

No...I don't think it would be. I also don't think they'd lose 100 games if you took Burnes and Adames out and replaced them with that group. 

Though it likely wouldn't be competitive in 2023. Either way, definitely not a tank job. 

[Robocaller]

I didn't really like the Woodruff trade to the Angels, but I needed to have a catcher ready to play in MLB and O'Hoppe fit the bill. So I tried a different trade.

Woodruff

for

O'Hoppe

Trout.

Which kinda shows how reasonable the BTV site is about some valuations.

Or even better:

Woodruff and Yelich

for O'Hoppe, Trout, Rendon, and Bush (because I like bush).

Rendon has a terrible contract, but only 4 more years.

 

[UpandIn]

On 10/19/2022 at 4:11 AM, Robocaller said:

Edgar Quero, C (Starts in A+; our Quero's younger brother)

I'm pretty sure they're not related. 

One is from Cuba, the other from Venezuela and they're 6 months apart...they do have similar profiles though. 

[Robocaller]

9 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I'm pretty sure they're not related. 

One is from Cuba, the other from Venezuela and they're 6 months apart...they do have similar profiles though. 

I didn't double check, but I've read something about our Quero's younger brother. Is there another Quero catching in the minors?

Checking. . . I guess you're right. I can't imagine the family moved from Venezuela to Cuba so they mustn't be (closely) related.

Thanks.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Out of curiosity, why Urshela? I view Wong and Urshela as very similar players making very similar money.

[wntrtxn21]

On 10/20/2022 at 8:59 PM, UpandIn said:

A tank job unlike any other?

No...I don't think it would be. I also don't think they'd lose 100 games if you took Burnes and Adames out and replaced them with that group. 

Though it likely wouldn't be competitive in 2023. Either way, definitely not a tank job. 

I think it's just a matter of semantics, your definition of tank job.  No matter what it would be a very bad team in 2023 and probably 2024. IMO 100 losses would be very possible depending on how the rest of the Central improved. Attendance would drop like a rock. I can't imagine MA would want to risk putting that bad a team on the field.

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I think it's just a matter of semantics, your definition of tank job.  No matter what it would be a very bad team in 2023 and probably 2024. IMO 100 losses would be very possible depending on how the rest of the Central improved. Attendance would drop like a rock. I can't imagine MA would want to risk putting that bad a team on the field.

Well, I consider a tank job intentionally losing or making your team worse and I could see you argue you're doing that here, I'd argue you'd be worse for a year, but unlike any other? I'd view it as a team just kinda taking a step back and re-loading so that the prospects they are acquiring match-up with the prospects they've already got in-house. You already know you can't re-sign all 3 players...so I'd focus on Woodruff and then supplement Woody, Peralta, Ashby, Gasser with those 4 pitchers. I'd insist on Stone back(which would just make the Dodgers even less likely to do it). 

I also think you're being a bit hyperbolic on how bad they'd be. I think that'd be a team that'd be in the .500 range, with a realistic range of 75-85 wins(and I think capable of much more if Vargas hits right away and those pitchers come in and contribute, even if just out of the BP) and then by '24 I think they'd be absolutely stacked and a better version of this years Cleveland team. Young, they'd have a whole staff of flame throwers, a lot of young position prospects. And again, obviously I'm talking about just that Dodgers trade.

Stone, Pepiot, Miller, Grove, Bruns...you're kinda recreating Woody and Burnes coming in as long relievers, but again, you'd have a better TOR with the actual Woodruff, Peralta and whoever emerges as the next starters. 

But these are all the reasons I don't think the Dodgers would do it. Give up 36 years of team control of VERY talented prospects on one of the top farm systems(or 42 depending on if you go with Buehler or another prospect). And you're really just losing likely a year of team control since we know we're not going to go with Burnes, Woody and Adames and get nothing back for them. 

Attendance would take a hit, fans would be upset, but winning solves all that and ultimately, this is the type of trade I, again, don't think would be offered, but I don't think you could afford to turn down if you're the Brewers.