Redd Vencher’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[Redd Vencher]

I've been doing a lot of researching to put together what I think is a reasonable plan for 2023 that addresses issues both real and perceived by the fanbase.

1B/3B Yandy Diaz seems like a very reasonable bet to be moved by the Rays this offseason. He has 2 years of control and getting more expensive for a cash conscious/strapped team like the Rays. They have a ton of depth in the IF with SS Wander Franco, IF Isaac Paredes, IF Vidal Brujans (borderline top 50 prospect before graduation), 3B Curtis Mead (#35 prospect MLB Pipeline), and 3B Jonathan Aranda (top 10 org prospect before graduation). Their OF could use more help with Kiermaier and Peralta exiting via FA. Right now they have Arozarena (R), Siri (R), Lowe (L), and Margot (R) in the OF for next season. Diaz as a hitter is 123 wRC+ (136L/116R) for his career coming off a 146 wRC+ (161L/141R) this season.  He's not a prototypical corner IF power profile with just 9 HR (39 career) and a .127 ISO (.133 career) this year, but he's that coveted contact hitter Brewer fans want more of on the roster with a 10.8% K rate (14.7% career) that also has good discipline with a 14.0% BB rate (12.4% career) this season. Another problem is he is a pretty significant downgrade defensively at 3B to Urias. I think all these factors are why BTV has Diaz and Tyrone Taylor as similar value. I don't think we could get Diaz straight up for Taylor, but something like a Tyrone Taylor, Hedbert Perez (#18 MLB Pipeline), and a lottery ticket type prospect seems reasonable. If you can acquire Diaz, he'd start at 3B v. RHP and 1B/DH v. LHP. To minimize his defensive shortcomings at 3B, he'd shift to 1B later in the game. He had 58.4% of the Rays innings at 3B, and I think you can push it closer to 50-50 if you're more strict about it.

This next one probably need as much argument in it's favor with Jose Abreu. He's a career 133 wRC+ (150L/128R) coming off a 137 wRC+ (148L/135R) that is right in line with his career on that front. The difference from his career is it's his worst power output of his career with .141 ISO against a .215 career mark. He's another guy that fits into the more contact with a 16.2% K rate (19.8% career). His last FA contract was for 3 years $50 M, so I think a 2 year with a 3rd year mutual option can get it done for a guy entering his age 36 season. (2023 $18 M, 2024 $18 M, 2025 $4 M buyout on $18 M option. $40 M guaranteed.)

This 3rd one is last of the big moves that I'm confident can reasonably happen. The rest of the plan is going to require a few more pieces to fall in place for those moves. Even this move involves grabbing Diaz for me to do it. I don't think Turang should be counted on as a starter this year, so I don't like moving on from Wong if that's the case. Seattle's weakest spot in the lineup this year was 2B as Adam Frazier produced an 81 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR season while Wong produced a 116 wRC+ 2.5 fWAR season. Wong would constitute the top 2B on the market if he were a FA, so I think 1 year $10 M for him would hold Seattle's interest in a trade. With the emergence of Cal Raleigh this season, it makes Tom Murphy, who missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, expendable with 1 more year of control. Murphy is a career 100 wRC+ (123L/84R) hitter and he's at least an average defender. I think Wong has a bit more value than BTV has for him, so I think a package of C Tom Murphy, 1B Robert Perez Jr. (#21 MLB Pipeline), and RHP Isaiah Campbell is reasonable even though BTV sees that as a moderate overpay for Seattle. Campbell would be minor league depth for the bullpen carousel, Perez Jr. presents an interesting 1B prospect that still has to clear the AA hurdle, and Murphy gives us a lefty mashing catcher that can be paired with Caratini. His salary in arbitration is estimated at $1.9 M, but I have him negative in the tool to offset the $2.5 M baked in for Wong's option.

Step 4 of this plan is extensions because a couple of extensions to key players can make a trade of a guy like Burnes more palatable to the fanbase. The first extension is Brandon Woodruff. The deals for Luis Castillo (5yr $108 M +6th year option) and Joe Musgrove (5yr $100 M) serve as a good comp for a Woodruff extension.  I'm thinking 5yr $105 M with a 6th year option and $15 M deferred for the 3 FA years. It'd break down 2023 $10 M, 2024 $15 M, 2025-27 $25 ($5 M deferred each season), and 2028 $25 M option ($5 M buyout). With this extension in place, we can sell locking up 2 of Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta. It may not be enough by itself to the fanbase, so the next extension candidate is Willy Adames. I think Javier Baez' 6 year $140 M deal last offseason works as a ballpark figure for the FA years. Obviously, we're giving it to Adames 2 years before FA, so I'd expect a discount on those years. I'm thinking is an 8 yr $132 M with a 9th year option and $24 M deferred for the 6 FA years. It'd break down 2023 $8 M, 2024 $12 M, 2025-30 $18 M ($4 M deferred each season), 2031 $18 M ($4 M buyout). The final extension candidate on my list that I don't think would effect fans, but I want to see is Luis Urias. He's produced a 111 wRC+ and 4-6 WAR over the last 2 seasons, and I still think there's more in him to lock him up. With 3 years to go before FA, I'm thinking a 6 yr $56 M with 2 option years, and $6 M deferred for the FA years if you wanted. It'd break down 2023 $4 M, 2024 $6 M, 2025 $8 M, 2026-2028 $12 M ($2 M deferred each season), 2029 $12 M option ($2 M buyout), and 2030 $12 M option ($2 M buyout).

Now we get to the very hard to predict portion of this blueprint, and one that probably runs this right off the rails. Finding a match in a Burnes trade and what it would take is hard. I can use BTV and raid any team I want for what I want, but I try to limit the suitors the best I can to where they're dealing from a position of depth that matches with our needs. The only  team that comes back is the Blue Jays with their enviable catcher depth, and arms in the upper levels of their farm system. Using BTV, I don't Jansen works as one of those catchers that fits in a Burnes trade because I can't see a team doing Jansen and their top 5 prospects for Burnes. The package would have to be built around Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno. I think their value is closer than what BTV has it, so I think a package of C Kirk/Moreno, LHP Ricky Tiedemann (#1 MLB Pipeline #33 overall), and RHP Yosver Zulueta (#5 MLB Pipeline) is much more reasonable. I just have a hard time planning an offseason around a major trade like this. If this trade happens, that gives us Tiedemann, Zulueta, Gasser, Small, and Alexander as SP depth in AAA  which is something that hurt us this year. More of it with more upside would fell with our roster building philosophy.

The next portion is the RP options. Chris Martin has never been a closer before, but he's one of the top arms on the FA market. Hopefully, he's available at a non closer's pay. Say 2yr $12 M with a 3rd year option. It'd breakdown 2023-24 $5 M and 2025 $6 M option ($2 M buyout). Carlos Estevez is an intriguing arm with a 97+ average FB velocity who's spent his entire career in Colorado and might be undervalued. Say a 2yr $9 M deal  with a 3rd year option. It'd breakdown 2023-2024 $4 M and 2025 $5 M option ($1 M buyout).  If we want a RP that could make some spot starts as rotation depth, Michael Fulmer and Trevor Williams are guys that might make more sense. Obviously, they can non tender some of the other guys I've kept to add them on top of Martin and Estevez. I wouldn't mind bringing Rogers back as well if his poor stretch with us keeps his FA price down. We could also nab a vet starter and push Ashby or Houser to the pen, but I don't see a good enough vet starter to do that with that won't be a longer contract.

Now onto some of the odds and ends with guys currently on the roster that aren't on this roster. Hiura is no longer a fit on this roster, and I'd look for an Adam Lind type trade to move him in.  The Red Sox if they want to compete next year are going to have to spend a lot of their resources on the rotation. They're losing J.D. Martinez and Dalbec and Hosmer were trash for them this year. They Casas ready to take over 1B, and Hiura would be a cheap guy to gamble on with Hosmer/Dalbec as depth behind him. Maybe something like RHP Frank German (#27 MLB Pipeline), RHP Louis Perales (#28 MLB Pipeline)/RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (#29 MLB Pipeline), and a lotto prospect would work. German is another RP that we can add to the bullpen carousel, Perales or Rodriguez-Cruz are teen pitchers with a handful appearances above rookie ball, and the lotto prospect would be another rookie baller. If we get both Kirk/Moreno and Murphy, Caratini would make sense for the Twins. Thinking something like RHP Ronny Henriquez (#22 MLB Pipeline) and RHP Steven Cruz (#28 MLB Pipeline) would work. A couple more RP arms to stash away in the higher minors for the carousel. I don't think there's any other trade move to make with the arb eligible players that didn't make this roster. Sorry for being so long winded here.

• C: Alejandro Kirk/Gabriel Moreno ($.7M)
• 1B: Rowdy Tellez/Jose Abreu ($5.3M)
• 2B: Luis Urias ($4.3M)
• 3B: Yandy Diaz ($5.4M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($8M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($22M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.7M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11M)
• DH: Jose Abreu/Rowdy Tellez ($18M)
• 4th OF: Estuery Ruiz/Sal Frelick/Joey Wiemar ($.70M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1M)
• Utility: Brice Turang ($0.7M)
• Backup C: Tom Murphy ($0M)
• SP1: Brandon Woodruff ($10M)
• SP2: Freddy Peralta ($3.5M)
• SP3: Eric Lauer ($5M)
• SP4: Adrian Houser ($3.5M)
• SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1M)
• RP: Brent Suter ($3M)
• RP: Boxberger ($3M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2M)
• RP: Chris Martin ($5M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.1M)
• RP: Devin Williams ($3.2M)
• RP: Peter Strzelecki/Jake Cousins ($.7M)
• RP: Carlos Estevez ($4M)

Payroll is 5.54% under budget

[Robocaller]

Tom Murphy seems to be underpaid ($0). :-)

 

[Redd Vencher]

55 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Tom Murphy seems to be underpaid ($0). :-)

 

It's explained in the 3rd paragraph except the tool won't let me go negative to make up the difference between the baked in $2.5M Wong option and the $1.9 M arb estimate for Murphy.