Brewcrew82’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint (2.0)

[Brewcrew82]

Kolten Wong, option exercised

Brent Suter, non-tendered

Trevor Gott, non-tendered

Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at $9 MIL AAV

Willy Adames, traded to LAD for Miguel Vargas, Ryan Pepiot, and Jorbit Vivas

Keston Hiura and Adrian Houser traded to OAK for AJ. Puk and Tony Kemp

Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez 

Thanks to @nate82@reillymcshanefor the trade ideas. 

 

• ? Danny Jansen ($3.70M)
• 1B: Miguel Vargas ($0.70M)
• 2B: Kolten Wong ($7.50M)
• 3B: Luis Urias ($4.50M)
• SS: Brice Turang ($0.70M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.00M)
• DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M)
• 4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($2.00M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
• Utility: Tony Kemp ($3.90M)
• Backup ? Victor Caratini ($2.80M)
• SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.50M)
• SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M)
• SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)
• RP: Ryan Pepiot ($0.70M)
• RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)
• RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M)
• RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M)
• RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M)

Payroll is 5.92% under budget

[Hopper]

Which Carlos Rodriguez are you giving away, the pitcher or the outfielder?

No way do I give up Wiemer, Garcia and the pitcher for Jansen.  Nope.

 

 

How many of these do you plan to do?  

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Which Carlos Rodriguez are you giving away, the pitcher or the outfielder?

No way do I give up Wiemer, Garcia and the pitcher for Jansen.  Nope.

 

 

How many of these do you plan to do?  

Not sure. Just decided to do this one in light of reading trade proposals from other posters. This is the version that I feel gives us the best team for both the present and the future.

You already stated that you wouldn’t give up those players for Jansen in my last one. I responded that you have to give up value to get value, especially considering Jansen led all MLB catchers in WRC+ last season . With as many outfielders as we have in AAA and on the major league roster, Wiemer becomes expendable due to his heavy swing and miss tendencies. That’s something we need to move away from. 

[Hopper]

Which Rodriguez?  OF or Pitcher?

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

Which Rodriguez?  OF or Pitcher?

Pitcher. 

[wibadgers23]

I really like this plan but I think we’ll agree to disagree on Jansen. Just don’t think he’s worth that much but I’m admittedly a big fan of Wiemer so I might be a little biased. Absolutely LOVE Vargas from the Dodgers so I’d be all over that trade.

[biglegend]

10 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not sure. Just decided to do this one in light of reading trade proposals from other posters. This is the version that I feel gives us the best team for both the present and the future.

You already stated that you wouldn’t give up those players for Jansen in my last one. I responded that you have to give up value to get value, especially considering Jansen led all MLB catchers in WRC+ last season . With as many outfielders as we have in AAA and on the major league roster, Wiemer becomes expendable due to his heavy swing and miss tendencies. That’s something we need to move away from. 

Can’t totally move away from power in the ball park. The problem is you have guys with high K percentages that shouldn’t have

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, biglegend said:

Can’t totally move away from power in the ball park. The problem is you have guys with high K percentages that shouldn’t have

Power doesn't need to come with swing and miss. For example, Rowdy and Jansen both have big power, but strikeout less than league average. But you can't strike out as much as the Brewers did this season and consistently win games. It's no coincidence that all 8 division series teams combined for the top 8 spots in adjusted strikeout rate. This lineup helps move us in a more contact oriented direction, which will hopefully lead to more consistent offense. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

I really like this plan but I think we’ll agree to disagree on Jansen. Just don’t think he’s worth that much but I’m admittedly a big fan of Wiemer so I might be a little biased. Absolutely LOVE Vargas from the Dodgers so I’d be all over that trade.

Yeah, I like the trade as it enables us to become more contact-oriented, upgrade our pitching depth, and focus on resigning Burnes/Woodruff. I love Adames, but I don't think I want to take the risk of extending him after Yelich. Burnes/Woodruff are more sure things imo. Very hard to develop front-line starting pitchers. 

[Brewcrew82]

After further consideration, I've decided to swap Mitchell and Wiemer in the Jansen trade. We're going to need a right-fielder after Renfroe departs next offseason and Wiemer is by far the best candidate in our system. Sets you up for a Frelick-Chourio-Wiemer outfield of the future. That might bring us a World Series. Mitchell allows the Jays to start to phase Springer out of CF. 

[Jopal78]

I get it, Trea Turner is going to be a free agent, but Adames wouldn’t be more than Plan D with LA at best. They’d be a better team by simply keeping Vargas to eventually replace Justin Turner, and fork over the money to sign Trea Turner, Carlos Correra or Xander Bogaerts. It only costs them money and luxury tax neither of which have been much of a deterrent to them recently. 
 

Further, Oakland isn’t at a place in the success cycle where Houser and Hiura make any sense for them. Oakland would be taking on salary to add two players who won’t move the needle for them in the AL West, and won’t be there when they put together their next winning club. If they want to move on from Puk and Kemp they may as well just flip them for minor leaguers and save the millions of dollars. 

[Brewcrew82]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I get it, Trea Turner is going to be a free agent, but Adames wouldn’t be more than Plan D with LA at best. They’d be a better team by simply keeping Vargas to eventually replace Justin Turner, and fork over the money to sign Trea Turner, Carlos Correra or Xander Bogaerts. It only costs them money and luxury tax neither of which have been much of a deterrent to them recently. 
 

Further, Oakland isn’t at a place in the success cycle where Houser and Hiura make any sense for them. Oakland would be taking on salary to add two players who won’t move the needle for them in the AL West, and won’t be there when they put together their next winning club. If they want to move on from Puk and Kemp they may as well just flip them for minor leaguers and save the millions of dollars. 

Yes, the Dodgers are well into the luxury tax, but the further you venture into it, the greater the penalties are. Which is why it acts as a de-facto salary "cap". The Dodgers have multiple holes that they need to address this offseason, particularly on the pitching side of things. Thus, they could easily prefer a lower-cost option at SS such as Adames who already produces on a level that is similar to those FAs. They would essentially be replacing Turner's salary over the past two years with Adames over the next two years, which would then enable them to use their resources t'o attack the pitching market (i.e., DeGrom, Rodon, Diaz, etc.). Meanwhile, Vargas is looking more and more like a first-baseman, where he is blocked for the foreseeable future by Freeman.

I wouldn't say that Houser and Hiura "don't make any sense" for Oakland. Kemp and Houser is essentially a salary swap and provides them with an above average starting pitching option that they can eventually flip to a contender. I think Houser would perform very well in that ballpark. As for Hiura and Puk, Hiura does cost slightly more and has one less year of control, but that is roughly offset by the fact that Hiura is a position player and Puk is strictly a reliever. Oakland could be very tempted to see what Hiura can do in regular playing time, which, unlike the Brewers, they can provide, and the possibility of flipping him for prospects. Yes, Oakland would be paying about $1.3 million more, but they certainly have the payroll flexibility to take that chance, when Puk isn't likely to play a role on their next contender anyways. Regardless, it certainly makes a heck of a lot more sense than the Brewers non-tendering Renfroe, keeping Suter and Houser, and then going out and signing Benintendi for even more than Renfroe and despite the presence of 4 MLB-ready outfielders. 

 

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes, the Dodgers are well into the luxury tax, but the further you venture into it, the greater the penalties are. Which is why it acts as a de-facto salary "cap". The Dodgers have multiple holes that they need to address this offseason, particularly on the pitching side of things. Thus, they could easily prefer a lower-cost option at SS such as Adames who already produces on a level that is similar to those FAs. They would essentially be replacing Turner's salary over the past two years with Adames over the next two years, which would then enable them to use their resources t'o attack the pitching market (i.e., DeGrom, Rodon, Diaz, etc.). Meanwhile, Vargas is looking more and more like a first-baseman, where he is blocked for the foreseeable future by Freeman.

I wouldn't say that Houser and Hiura "don't make any sense" for Oakland. Kemp and Houser is essentially a salary swap and provides them with an above average starting pitching option that they can eventually flip to a contender. I think Houser would perform very well in that ballpark. As for Hiura and Puk, Hiura does cost slightly more and has one less year of control, but that is roughly offset by the fact that Hiura is a position player and Puk is strictly a reliever. Oakland could be very tempted to see what Hiura can do in regular playing time, which, unlike the Brewers, they can provide, and the possibility of flipping him for prospects. Yes, Oakland would be paying about $1.3 million more, but they certainly have the payroll flexibility to take that chance, when Puk isn't likely to play a role on their next contender anyways. Regardless, it certainly makes a heck of a lot more sense than the Brewers non-tendering Renfroe, keeping Suter and Houser, and then going out and signing Benintendi for even more than Renfroe and despite the presence of 4 MLB-ready outfielders. 

 

I mean if we are really feeling crazy we could send them Burnes and Adames for Miller, Busch, Vargas, Stone, and Pepiot. Never going to happen but if Brewers wanted to refresh that's a move they should consider. 

[Brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean if we are really feeling crazy we could send them Burnes and Adames for Miller, Busch, Vargas, Stone, and Pepiot. Never going to happen but if Brewers wanted to refresh that's a move they should consider. 

I wanted to strike the best balance between going for it next season and optimizing our future, which seems to be the direction Stearns. and co. are likely to take. This roster strikes that balance, imo. Gives them one year to attempt to extend Burnes/Woodruff, while eliminating Adames as an extension candidate. I love the guy, but his profile is simply too risky in light of the Yelich deal. 

[Jopal78]

51 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes, the Dodgers are well into the luxury tax, but the further you venture into it, the greater the penalties are. Which is why it acts as a de-facto salary "cap". The Dodgers have multiple holes that they need to address this offseason, particularly on the pitching side of things. Thus, they could easily prefer a lower-cost option at SS such as Adames who already produces on a level that is similar to those FAs. They would essentially be replacing Turner's salary over the past two years with Adames over the next two years, which would then enable them to use their resources t'o attack the pitching market (i.e., DeGrom, Rodon, Diaz, etc.). Meanwhile, Vargas is looking more and more like a first-baseman, where he is blocked for the foreseeable future by Freeman.

I wouldn't say that Houser and Hiura "don't make any sense" for Oakland. Kemp and Houser is essentially a salary swap and provides them with an above average starting pitching option that they can eventually flip to a contender. I think Houser would perform very well in that ballpark. As for Hiura and Puk, Hiura does cost slightly more and has one less year of control, but that is roughly offset by the fact that Hiura is a position player and Puk is strictly a reliever. Oakland could be very tempted to see what Hiura can do in regular playing time, which, unlike the Brewers, they can provide, and the possibility of flipping him for prospects. Yes, Oakland would be paying about $1.3 million more, but they certainly have the payroll flexibility to take that chance, when Puk isn't likely to play a role on their next contender anyways. Regardless, it certainly makes a heck of a lot more sense than the Brewers non-tendering Renfroe, keeping Suter and Houser, and then going out and signing Benintendi for even more than Renfroe and despite the presence of 4 MLB-ready outfielders. 

 

Hiura and Houser make zero sense for Oakland. They are likely going to finish last in the AL West in '23 and neither of those players would change that, and neither one will still be under control when the next competitive Oakland team hits the field . That fact alone makes it unlikely they would take on any amount of salary to simply spin their wheels with those two. 

Second, we can argue about Hiura all day long; the facts are, Hiura doesn't hit left handed pitching and he doesn't play defense, so really he's a right handed DH. He's not going to play everyday in a division with Framber Valdez, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzalez, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, amongst others.  Don't forget while Puk may be "strictly a reliever"  he was one of Oakland's late inning relievers, and went multiple innings in several of his appearances and is pre-arbitration eligible. As I specifically mentioned earlier if they were going to trade him why would they take on a veteran bench player like Hiura when they could simply add talent to their developing minor league system? 

Moreover, I really don't believe Oakland or any other team is going to trade for Hiura and Houser with the intention of then flipping him down the road for prospects.  The acquiring team would bear all the risk of injury and underperformance, and have to pay them ever increasing amounts of money. It's not a sound strategy for improving in either the long run or the short run. Which is why it makes zero sense. 

 What I forgot to mention earlier is I don't think the trade makes any sense for the Brewers either. Tony Kemp plays 2B and LF and is projected to make 3.9 million dollars in his final year of arbitration. Yet your hypothetical has Kolten Wong, and Christian Yelich on the Brewers at 2B and LF respectively. Where exactly would Kemp play? I suppose you mean as a Utility infielder, but then he has two MLB innings at SS and has never played 3B.

Finally to the Dodgers, unless Trevor Bauer's suspension gets overturned (doubtful) they have the flexibility to do whatever they want. David Price's contract is up ($32 million), Kershaw's contract is up ($17 million) as is Craig Kimbrel's ($16 million).  I doubt they tender Bellinger a contract (projected 18 million), and exercise their club option on Justin Turner ($16 million). Correa, Bogaerts and Trea Turner are better players than Adames, and only cost them money to acquire not key prospects that allow the Dodgers to spend ridiculous amounts of money to fill holes in the first place. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

Hiura and Houser make zero sense for Oakland. They are likely going to finish last in the AL West in '23 and neither of those players would change that, and neither one will still be under control when the next competitive Oakland team hits the field . That fact alone makes it unlikely they would take on any amount of salary to simply spin their wheels with those two. 

Second, we can argue about Hiura all day long; the facts are, Hiura doesn't hit left handed pitching and he doesn't play defense, so really he's a right handed DH. He's not going to play everyday in a division with Framber Valdez, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzalez, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, amongst others.  Don't forget while Puk may be "strictly a reliever"  he was one of Oakland's late inning relievers, and went multiple innings in several of his appearances and is pre-arbitration eligible. As I specifically mentioned earlier if they were going to trade him why would they take on a veteran bench player like Hiura when they could simply add talent to their developing minor league system? 

Moreover, I really don't believe Oakland or any other team is going to trade for Hiura and Houser with the intention of then flipping him down the road for prospects.  The acquiring team would bear all the risk of injury and underperformance, and have to pay them ever increasing amounts of money. It's not a sound strategy for improving in either the long run or the short run. Which is why it makes zero sense. 

 What I forgot to mention earlier is I don't think the trade makes any sense for the Brewers either. Tony Kemp plays 2B and LF and is projected to make 3.9 million dollars in his final year of arbitration. Yet your hypothetical has Kolten Wong, and Christian Yelich on the Brewers at 2B and LF respectively. Where exactly is Kemp going to play exactly? He has two MLB innings at SS and has never played 3B.

Finally to the Dodgers, unless Trevor Bauer's suspension gets overturned (doubtful) they have the flexibility to do whatever they want. David Price's contract is up ($32 million), Kershaw's contract is up ($17 million) as is Craig Kimbrel's ($16 million).  I doubt they tender Bellinger a contract (projected 18 million), and exercise their club option on Justin Turner ($16 million). Correa, Bogaerts and Trea Turner are better players than Adames, and only cost them money to acquire not key prospects that allow the Dodgers to spend ridiculous amounts of money to fill holes in the first place. 

We can argue about Houser and Hiura to the A's all day long. Fact is, that trade isn't a central element of my plan. If it came down to it, we could just go ahead and trade them to a different non-contending team for a reliever and a utility player. I will note that the A's still need to field a ballclub at the MLB level and that all of their moves aren't going to exclusively be acquiring minor league talent. Houser is an above average starting pitcher that they have room to feature at the big-league level. Same with Hiura. They have the ability to give him the playing time that we simply don't have against RHP. You emphasize that neither would be around when the A's field their next competitive team, well, doesn't the same logic apply to Puk and Kemp, given how weak the A's currently are on talent at the MLB and minor-league levels? The upside is that, if Houser and Hiura produce in their roles, they can be used to net more prospect capital. It's a risk that a rebuilding team like the A's can afford to take for barely over $1 million dollars. 

As for Kemp, I was more focused on matching salaries with Houser and acquiring a left-handed bench bat to replace Peterson. I'm sure the Brewers would attempt to get him to consider increasing his positional flexibility to SS and 3B as the price of playing for a contender. 

Meanwhile, with respect to the Dodgers, they do have significant payroll flexibility this offseason. But, again, they have decidedly more holes on their roster right now than they are accustomed to having, especially on the pitching side of things. They WILL NOT be able to resolve all of them in the FA market. Some will have to be addressed via trade. My assumption, based in part on the outcome of the Padres series, is that they will be heavily invested in the elite starter and reliever FA market (DeGrom, Rodon, Kershaw, Diaz, etc.) as well as the OF market (Judge?). Which could make them particularly open to acquiring a SS like Adames for a reduced cost similar to what they were paying Trea Turner over the past year and a half. Especially when the production gap btw. Adames and the elite FA SS is relatively small. They would have to part with some prospects, but Vargas is looking like he's blocked by Freeman and Pepiot is overshadowed by Stone and Miller. It's a deal that could end up making perfect sense for both sides. Certainly, a heck of a lot more sense than non-tendering Renfroe, while signing Benintendi for a greater cost and retaining Suter and Houser.