Half a Decade of Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta

[sveumrules]

Kinda crazy to think that Corbin, Woody and Freddy have all been on the team together for half a decade now.

Thought it might be a good opportunity to look back on how they have evolved individually and as a trio over the years.

2018 (65 G | 18 GS | 158.2 IP | 2.3 rWAR | 1.9 fWAR)
Freddy: 78.1 IP | 105 ERA- | 92 FIP- | 1.0 rWAR | 1.2 fWAR
Woody: 42.1 IP | 89 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 0.4 rWAR | 0.5 fWAR
Burnes: 38.0 IP | 64 ERA- | 93 FIP- | 0.9 rWAR | 0.2 fWAR

[Got their feet wet in the regular season, then showed a glimpse of what they were really capable of throwing a combined 24.1 IP of 1.85 ERA with 37 K | 7 BB in the playoffs.]

2019 (93 G | 44 GS | 255.2 IP | 0.3 rWAR | 3.8 fWAR)
Woody: 121.2 IP | 82 ERA- | 67 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR | 3.3 fWAR)
Freddy: 85.0 IP | 119 ERA- | 94 FIP- | -0.6 rWAR | 0.9 fWAR)
Burnes: 49.0 IP | 199 ERA- | 137 FIP- | -2.1 rWAR | -0.4 fWAR)

[All three started the year in the rotation, only Woody ended there. Made playoffs anyway with a miraculous September run.]

2020 (40 G | 23 GS | 162.2 IP | 5.2 rWAR | 5.3 fWAR)
Woody: 73.2 IP | 68 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 2.3 rWAR | 2.1 fWAR
Burnes: 59.2 IP | 47 ERA- | 46 FIP- | 2.5 rWAR | 2.4 fWAR
Freddy: 29.1 IP | 89 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 0.4 rWAR | 0.8 fWAR

[Burnes emerges as an ace & Freddy starts figuring it out while Woody just did Woody things.]

2021 (86 G | 85 GS | 490.2 IP | 17.0 rWAR | 16.2 fWAR)
Woody: 179.1 IP | 61 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 6.3 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR
Burnes: 167.0 IP | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- | 6.2 rWAR | 7.5 fWAR
Freddy: 144.1 IP | 67 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 4.5 rWAR | 4.0 fWAR

[Love it when a plan comes together. Three All Stars, an historic FIP season from Burnes, Woody 5th in the CY, career best from  Freddy.]

2022 (78 G | 77 GS | 433.1 IP | 10.9 rWAR | 10.1 fWAR)
Burnes: 202.0 IP | 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 5.3 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR
Woody: 153.1 IP | 75 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 3.9 rWAR | 3.5 fWAR
Freddy: 78.0 IP | 88 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 1.7 rWAR | 2.0 fWAR

[Burnes cracks 200 IP and leads league in Ks, Woody was mostly back to normal once he got the numbness under control, Freddy limited by a sore shoulder.]

2018-22 (362 G | 237 GS | 1501.0 IP | 35.7 rWAR | 33.2 fWAR)
Woody: 570.1 IP | 72 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 15.9 rWAR | 14.1 fWAR
Burnes: 515.2 IP | 76 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 14.3 fWAR
Freddy: 415.0 IP | 90 ERA- | 80 FIP- | 7.0 rWAR | 8.8 fWAR

[Really hope we get at least one more season with this trio. Splitting the difference between 2021/22 think they will need to crack at least 80 GS | 450 IP | 15.0 rWAR in 2023 for the Brewers to  get back to the playoffs.]

[Axman59]

That magnificent trio is what gave the Brewers a punchers chance in any playoff scenario in 2022. It disgusts me that there are people on this board who think it's just as well that the Brewers missed the playoffs "because they weren't going anywhere anyway." That defeatist attitude makes me want to puke.

[BlightyBrew]

1 hour ago, Axman59 said:

That magnificent trio is what gave the Brewers a punchers chance in any playoff scenario in 2022. It disgusts me that there are people on this board who think it's just as well that the Brewers missed the playoffs "because they weren't going anywhere anyway." That defeatist attitude makes me want to puke.

My biggest worry is that the Brewers are going to waste this and at the end we will have nothing to show for it.  I am not sure what kool aid Stearns and Co are drinking but I see the window as only being the next 2 yrs,  Unless Stearns comment that we are well into our competitive window is a shot across the bow at ownership.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Axman59 said:

That magnificent trio is what gave the Brewers a punchers chance in any playoff scenario in 2022. It disgusts me that there are people on this board who think it's just as well that the Brewers missed the playoffs "because they weren't going anywhere anyway." That defeatist attitude makes me want to puke.

Peralta was pretty much limited to 2-4 IP stints once he came back from the DL the second time at the end of September. 

His last outing was 10/02 so he probably would have started Game 1 with Ashby (?) lined up behind him hoping to get to Milner, Strzelecki, Box, Devin.

Woody pitched 10/03 so he could have started Game 2 on four days rest. This would be the only normal start from the trio in the Wild Card round.

Burnes started 10/05 so he would have been lined up to start Game 3 on three days rest.

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Peralta was pretty much limited to 2-4 IP stints once he came back from the DL the second time at the end of September. 

His last outing was 10/02 so he probably would have started Game 1 with Ashby (?) lined up behind him hoping to get to Milner, Strzelecki, Box, Devin.

Woody pitched 10/03 so he could have started Game 2 on four days rest. This would be the only normal start from the trio in the Wild Card round.

Burnes started 10/05 so he would have been lined up to start Game 3 on three days rest.

If our GM actually tried to make his division leading team better at the deadline Burnes probably wouldn’t have pitched 10/5. We would have clinched days in advance.

[wibadgers23]

7 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

My biggest worry is that the Brewers are going to waste this and at the end we will have nothing to show for it.  I am not sure what kool aid Stearns and Co are drinking but I see the window as only being the next 2 yrs,  Unless Stearns comment that we are well into our competitive window is a shot across the bow at ownership.

I see it as only being one more year as they likely will start trading guys off next offseason or even before that if things aren’t going well. I think your concerns are in line with most Brewer fans who worried that Mark A and Stearns would not push all their chips in and truly go for it during this window and it appears as though that is going to happen.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

If our GM actually tried to make his division leading team better at the deadline Burnes probably wouldn’t have pitched 10/5. We would have clinched days in advance.

Matt Arnold didn’t try to make the team better?

He accidentally made three transactions in hopes of making the team worse?

Just because it didn’t work doesn’t mean no effort was made.

Which deal(s) would you have made that would have not only clinched a Wild Card spot, but also did so with enough time to line up our WC rotation to boot?

[JosephC]

12 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 

[Really hope we get at least one more season with this trio. Splitting the difference between 2021/22 think they will need to crack at least 80 GS | 450 IP | 15.0 rWAR in 2023 for the Brewers to  get back to the playoffs.]

 

Have to admit, IF the values for Burnes and Woodruff are accurate at the Baseball Trade Values site, I would be looking to trade Burnes this off-season.

I just don't think small-market teams are in the position to hold top players until free agency and then lose them for a draft pick...a draft pick that the Brewers front office sees as having Alex Claudio value.

Still think the best long-term plan for the Brewers would have been to trade Hader last off-season, then trade either Burnes or Woodruff this off-season and then trade the other next off-season.  Yes, hindsight is 20/20 but it sure looks like they held Hader 1/2 season too long (Hader fans could easily argue the other way...that Hader should still be on the team).

Also have to start wondering about Peralta.  He lacks ideal pitcher size and has now had back-to-back seasons with DL stints due to the right shoulder.  He has only exceeded 85 major league innings in one season and hasn't gotten to 150 once.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Matt Arnold didn’t try to make the team better?

He accidentally made three transactions in hopes of making the team worse?

Just because it didn’t work doesn’t mean no effort was made.

Which deal(s) would you have made that would have not only clinched a Wild Card spot, but also did so with enough time to line up our WC rotation to boot?

No, I do not believe Stearns really tried to make the team better. Tread water at best. If you think they really made a serious effort to better the team, well, that’s your opinion.

Clearly Stearns doesn’t think it’s a great time to compete with this core. He is probably waiting for us to have two aces and a few NL Relievers of the year on the team. We need that championship pitching we have all been waiting for. Oh wait….never mind. 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Which deal(s) would you have made that would have not only clinched a Wild Card spot, but also did so with enough time to line up our WC rotation to boot?

Was curious what combo of moves with 20/20 hindsight would have resulted in the extra 5 or so wins needed to clinch a WC spot with enough breathing room to line up the playoff rotation.

Listed all the notable players moved at or around the deadline plus some bad post-deadline Brewers below if anyone else wants to give it a try.

My moves…

01. Skip Hader (-0.9 WAR) for Rogers (-0.6) and Bush (-0.4) trades. (even).

02. Pick up Andrus on waivers mid-August (2.0 WAR) and give him Bross  (0.0) and Jace (0.1) PAs. (+2 Wins)

03. Acquire Reese (1.3 WAR) and Bethancourt (1.2) to replace Omar (-0.3) and Victor (-0.2) behind the plate. (+3 Wins)

Five wins, easier than I expected honestly.

Selling the farm for Soto (0.9 WAR), Bell (-0.5), Castillo (1.2) and Iglesias (1.4) would have netted about 3 wins, enough to get in, but maybe not enough to line up the rotation.

HITTERS

Andrus (191 PA | 119 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR)
Reese (108 PA | 145 wRC+ | 1.3 WAR)
BetCrt (151 PA | 101 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR)
Siri (178 PA | 93 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR)
Soto (228 PA | 130 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR)
BenTen (131 PA | 111 wRC+ | 0.8 WAR)
Marsh (138 PA | 114 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR)
Drury (183 PA | 105 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR)
Peralta (180 PA | 91 wRC+ | 0.2 WAR)
Bell (210 PA | 79 wRC+ | -0.5 WAR)

STARTERS

Quintana (62 IP | 52 ERA- | 2.1 WAR)
Mntgmry (63 IP | 80 ERA- | 1.4 WAR)
Castillo (65 IP | 86 ERA- | 1.2 WAR)
Thor (52 IP | 105 ERA- | 0.7 WAR)
Mahle (16 IP | 115 ERA- | 0.2 WAR)
Odorizzi (46 IP | 127 ERA- | 0.0 WAR)
Montas (39 IP | 165 ERA- | 0.5 WAR)

RELIEVERS

Iglesias (26 IP | 8 ERA- | 1.4 WAR)
Martin (24 IP | 37 ERA- | 1.1 WAR)
Bass (25 IP | 45 ERA- | 0.9 WAR)
Rbrtsn (23 IP | 66 ERA- | 0.6 WAR)
Pop (19 IP | 49 ERA- | 0.5 WAR)
Stratton (22 IP | 72 ERA- | 0.3 WAR) Fulmer (24 IP | 97 ERA- | 0.3 WAR)
Effross (12 IP | 55 ERA- | 0.3 WAR)
Lopez (22 IP | 114 ERA- | 0.0 WAR)
Bush (23 IP | 106 ERA- | -0.4 WAR)
Rogers (23 IP | 135 ERA- | -0.6 WAR)
Hader (16 IP | 189 ERA- | -0.9 WAR)

BAD BREWERS POST DEADLINE

Narvaez (83 PA | 7 wRC+ | -0.3 WAR)
Victor (142 PA | 39 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR)
Cutch (199 PA | 89 wRC+ | -0.1 WAR)
Bross (54 PA | 88 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR)
Hiura (122 PA | 97 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR)
OBJace (87 PA | 48 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR)
Rowdy (217 PA | 106 wRC+ | 0.2 WAR)

Alxndr (26 IP | 125 ERA- | 0.0 WAR)
Ashby (26 IP | 134 ERA- | 0.0 WAR)
Houser (26 IP | 118 ERA- | -0.1 WAR)
Milner (25 IP | 121 ERA- | -0.1 WAR)
Perdomo (13 IP | 134 ERA- | -0.1 WAR)
Topa (7 IP | 121 ERA- | -0.2 WAR)

[MrTPlush]

Would Hader have struggled that long had he just stayed here? I think probably not. Also, I think most people agree the Brewers played poorly (as a team) to some degree due to that trade happening. 

On paper and reality likely aren’t as simple as that exercise is, thus why I didn’t partake in it. Not to mention one can easily go into retrospect and make the perfect set of moves to prove a point. It’s going to depend on your opinion of some of the non statistical effects of those moves in a lot of ways.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I'd like to know (& most likely never will) what potential deals were "on the table". Want Drury? What would it have taken? Josh Bell? Happ? Merrifield?

My gut tells me the prospect capital it would've taken is more than I personally would've paid. 

[AKCheesehead]

Sveumrules do you post in gray font or what? It’s a pain in the ass to try to read your posts. I have to highlight them in order to be able to kind of see them. 

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, AKCheesehead said:

Sveumrules do you post in gray font or what? It’s a pain in the ass to try to read your posts. I have to highlight them in order to be able to kind of see them. 

They look normal to me. 

[MrTPlush]

8 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'd like to know (& most likely never will) what potential deals were "on the table". Want Drury? What would it have taken? Josh Bell? Happ? Merrifield?

My gut tells me the prospect capital it would've taken is more than I personally would've paid. 

Pretty much, at some point we can only flail our arms to judge things in the end. Even if the player was traded elsewhere at the deadline, it is impossible know what it would have taken had we made the trade. We can compare prospect values and Top 30 lists, but that is very far from an exact science.

Heck, Gasser could become an All Star and it could unknowingly still be a terrible trade compared to what else Stearns was offered. We rarely get to see what other teams offered unless it’s an absolute huge player being traded. I remember most thinking the Lucroy trade to the Indians as being an absolute haul and he vetoed it. Turns out the entire package was total garbage.

[thebruce44]

Stearns is all about finding competitive advantages over his opponents. It would seem that the return on valuable players is not what it used to be. Teams seems to be making their higher level prospects untouchable. I am basing this on the return for Hader.

So if that is the case, it would seem that we should be trading for high value players and going all in for the next 2 years. The alternative of trading our stars will result in leaving value on the table.

[monty57]

On 10/15/2022 at 1:00 AM, BlightyBrew said:

My biggest worry is that the Brewers are going to waste this and at the end we will have nothing to show for it.  I am not sure what kool aid Stearns and Co are drinking but I see the window as only being the next 2 yrs,  Unless Stearns comment that we are well into our competitive window is a shot across the bow at ownership.

I guess I don't consider the best period of baseball in franchise history to be a waste. I too would like to get a World Series victory, but the last handful of seasons of Brewers' baseball has definitely not been a "waste." 

[BlightyBrew]

6 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I guess I don't consider the best period of baseball in franchise history to be a waste. I too would like to get a World Series victory, but the last handful of seasons of Brewers' baseball has definitely not been a "waste." 

Thats true.  I was being a bit harsh.  

[monty57]

19 hours ago, thebruce44 said:

Stearns is all about finding competitive advantages over his opponents. It would seem that the return on valuable players is not what it used to be. Teams seems to be making their higher level prospects untouchable. I am basing this on the return for Hader.

So if that is the case, it would seem that we should be trading for high value players and going all in for the next 2 years. The alternative of trading our stars will result in leaving value on the table.

Depends on how valuable that player is. Soto netted a lot of highly regarded prospects, while Hader did not. I think that's because relievers (even really good ones) don't have that much trade value. Once Hader was turned into a reliever, his trade value dropped, even though he was one of, if not the best reliever in baseball.

Unfortunately, the archaic arbitration process was still going to pay him a lot of money to pitch one inning every couple of days, so he had to be traded. It can be debated whether he had to be traded when he was, or if that could've waited until the end of the season, but the Brewers weren't in a position to pay him something like $15M in '23. Heck, we may still need to cut some salary even with Hader gone and the likely chance that Wong's option won't be exercised.

Don't confuse Hader's return with what we could get if we put Burnes or Woodruff on the market. They're apples and oranges.

[CheezWizHed]

It is unfortunate that their timing wasn't a bit better.  Imagine if that trio's 2021 season had occurred in 2018 or 2019... 

[monty57]

16 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

It is unfortunate that their timing wasn't a bit better.  Imagine if that trio's 2021 season had occurred in 2018 or 2019... 

I wish they'd have sent Burnes down to AAA in 2019 after his rough start. Instead, they bounced him to the bullpen and he wasted a year's service time as a horrible relief pitcher before the finally had to send him to AAA to end the season, with people calling for him to be DFA'd. I still think it's a minor miracle that he got his head straightened out as quickly as he did, but at the very least, we should have another year's service time if they had just sent him to AAA right away.

The "he's too valuable to the MLB team to keep in AAA, so let's put him in the bullpen" cost us a year of Burnes, and I'll still argue that Hader could've been a good starting pitcher if they'd have given him a shot. If he'd have turned into an ace starter rather than a great closer, we would've gotten a lot more than we did for him in trade.

[BallFour]

Freddy's shoulder makes me uneasy. I almost rather use him out of the bullpen going forward, I know I will be in the minority on that one. 

I know this is a thread about the big 3 but I do have some confidence in Ashby stepping up. I am betting on him figuring out his 0-2 woes of surrendering a .720 OPS and .539 BABIP to opposing hitters.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Freddy's shoulder makes me uneasy. I almost rather use him out of the bullpen going forward, I know I will be in the minority on that one. 

I know this is a thread about the big 3 but I do have some confidence in Ashby stepping up. I am betting on him figuring out his 0-2 woes of surrendering a .720 OPS and .539 BABIP to opposing hitters.

Freddy has been borderline-elite as a starter over the last two years when healthy. There's very little upside to using him exclusively out of the bullpen, and all the upside to continuing to feature him in the front of the rotation. You just have to be more careful in managing his innings compared to Burnes and Woodruff. 

As for Ashby, he needs to learn how to walk the fine line between throwing strikes and making non-competitive pitches. Too many times he'll throw a non-competitive pitch during an at-bat to get behind in the count, and then when he manages to get to two strikes, will inexplicably throw a hittable pitch instead of a pitch on the corners or out of the zone. I'm confident he'll eventually get there, though, as his stuff is second-to-none. 

[CheezWizHed]

On 10/20/2022 at 12:21 PM, monty57 said:

I wish they'd have sent Burnes down to AAA in 2019 after his rough start. Instead, they bounced him to the bullpen and he wasted a year's service time as a horrible relief pitcher before the finally had to send him to AAA to end the season, with people calling for him to be DFA'd. I still think it's a minor miracle that he got his head straightened out as quickly as he did, but at the very least, we should have another year's service time if they had just sent him to AAA right away.

The "he's too valuable to the MLB team to keep in AAA, so let's put him in the bullpen" cost us a year of Burnes, and I'll still argue that Hader could've been a good starting pitcher if they'd have given him a shot. If he'd have turned into an ace starter rather than a great closer, we would've gotten a lot more than we did for him in trade.

I don't know about Hader. I think he makes a middling starter at best.  Being able to limit his pitches per game allowed him to amp up the velocity and made him elite.  We've seen when he is tired and slows down a bit, he is very hittable. 

[sveumrules]

My earliest baseball memories are from 1986…opening my first pack of Topps (got an Earnie Riles), Valenzuela striking out Higuera in the All Star Game, and of course Mookie/Buckner in the World Series.

There are 1,132 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 1986.

Corbin’s 68 FIP- is tied for 10th with Pedro & Robb Nenn.

Woodruff’s 74 FIP- is tied for 28th with Doug Jones, BJ Ryan, Joakim Soria and Mark Eichorn.

Freddy’s 80 FIP- is tied for 73rd with Francisco Rodriguez, Lance McCullers Jr. and Eric Gagne.