Is there any chance Adrian Houser isn't offered arbitration?

[UpandIn]

12 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Maybe Small's role isn't the rotation, but out of the bullpen. Could he be a (if not the) Hader replacement the Crew is looking for?

Hader?

[UpandIn]

15 hours ago, SF70 said:

Yeah Small is a mess. Has no idea where where the ball is going when it comes out of his hand. 

Disagree that he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff though. Had 12 whiffs vs the Cubbies in less than 3 innings before he lost his release-point.

Hopefully the lab & coaches can figure-out a fix for that release-point so we can see his deceptive stuff get hitters out again on a consistent basis.

He was absolutely a mess. I think he's just gotta learn to pitch at the MLB level. He was nibbling, then giving in. I still think he's talented enough to become back of the rotation type pitcher.

[LouisEly]

As others have said, the lack of upper level SP depth makes it very unlikely that they non-tender him, and Small falling apart pretty much cemented it.

I do believe he was playing hurt for several weeks before he went on the DL.  Through his first 10 starts in 2022 he had a 3.51 ERA and 3.62 FIP.  In his last six appearances of the season (five starts) after coming off of the DL (excluding throwing him to the wolves against the Dodgers in his first game back) he had a 3.38 ERA and 4.20 FIP.

In 2021 Houser had the 6th highest soft hit % of any pitcher with at least 100 IP, second lowest hard-hit % (just ahead of Burnes), and fourth highest ground-ball %.  He's not a swing-and-miss pitcher, and his command gets away from him at times, but the analytics suggest that if you put a good defense behind him he can be a very effective pitcher. 

[clancyphile]

14 hours ago, LouisEly said:

As others have said, the lack of upper level SP depth makes it very unlikely that they non-tender him, and Small falling apart pretty much cemented it.

I do believe he was playing hurt for several weeks before he went on the DL.  Through his first 10 starts in 2022 he had a 3.51 ERA and 3.62 FIP.  In his last six appearances of the season (five starts) after coming off of the DL (excluding throwing him to the wolves against the Dodgers in his first game back) he had a 3.38 ERA and 4.20 FIP.

In 2021 Houser had the 6th highest soft hit % of any pitcher with at least 100 IP, second lowest hard-hit % (just ahead of Burnes), and fourth highest ground-ball %.  He's not a swing-and-miss pitcher, and his command gets away from him at times, but the analytics suggest that if you put a good defense behind him he can be a very effective pitcher. 

Put it this way... if you could get him signed to a reasonable extension (4/$18 million or 5/$23 million), it could open a wealth of options. A solid back-end guy at a fixed cost is not bad. Or, if there is an explosion of talent, he could fetch a decent return from another team.

The Crew acquired Yelich precisely because he was on a (reasonable) contract extension, and the Marlins got two high-ceiling OF prospects, a decent pitching prospect, and a good IF prospect. Maybe make that dynamic work for the Crew. Houser's the type of pitcher who should be reasonably reliable.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

Put it this way... if you could get him signed to a reasonable extension (4/$18 million or 5/$23 million), it could open a wealth of options. A solid back-end guy at a fixed cost is not bad. Or, if there is an explosion of talent, he could fetch a decent return from another team.

The Crew acquired Yelich precisely because he was on a (reasonable) contract extension, and the Marlins got two high-ceiling OF prospects, a decent pitching prospect, and a good IF prospect. Maybe make that dynamic work for the Crew. Houser's the type of pitcher who should be reasonably reliable.

I would offer arby to Houser, as I think that he is better than he looked this year, but I think that there is too much risk to offer him a 4-5 year deal. If he gets it together, that would be a good deal, but if he doesn't, they've just thrown away $20M. That may not seem like a lot in "baseball money," but $20,000,000 is $20,000,000. That's still a lot of cash.

[LouisEly]

For once, Clancy might not be off his rocker ?.  I don't know about a 4-5 year deal, but given that there are only three SP above A-ball on the MLB Top 30 prospect list and one of them had a serious meltdown this year and another is #30, I think it may be wise to buy out one year of FA and try to get Houser on a 3-year deal through age 32.

Houser is 29, and while he has one shot at FA I think he knows that he doesn't have the resume to command an 8-figure/year deal, and with the injuries he had this past season a guarantee of $12M-$15M or so for three years to set him up for life might be too good to pass up and work out well for both sides.

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

For once, Clancy might not be off his rocker ?.  I don't know about a 4-5 year deal, but given that there are only three SP above A-ball on the MLB Top 30 prospect list and one of them had a serious meltdown this year and another is #30, I think it may be wise to buy out one year of FA and try to get Houser on a 3-year deal through age 32.

Houser is 29, and while he has one shot at FA I think he knows that he doesn't have the resume to command an 8-figure/year deal, and with the injuries he had this past season a guarantee of $12M-$15M or so for three years to set him up for life might be too good to pass up and work out well for both sides.

I personally think it provides more of an impetus to get one of Woodruff or Burnes (probably Woodruff) signed to an extension ASAP. You can always go out and sign the Housers of the world, but we have two elite pitchers whose control is expiring and who are not as easily replaceable. It helps that we have Peralta and Ashby signed and Gasser waiting in the wings, but we'll still need a rotation anchor if we hope to capitalize on this next wave of young talent. Houser won't accomplish that and would amount to an unnecessary signing imo. 

[DougX57]

On 10/14/2022 at 3:44 PM, John Bonnes said:

As I was putting together my deep dive into Brewers payroll, I started second-guessing myself on whether the Brewers might not offer arbitration to Adrian Houser. He had a 4.73 ERA, isn't a strikeout guy and missed basically two months with an elbow injury. They'll likely need to pay him $4.5M or so and he's 29 years old. Could he be a non-tender candidate?

I see Houser getting traded and Small stepping into his role. Houser is not a strike out pitcher and it is time for Small to step it up or be considered a bust.

[Outlander]

Relying on Small to be a starter is not ideal, doubt they do that. If they rely on Small they are really hoping a guy like Jason Alexander can step up which did not work well in 2022.

[clancyphile]

On 10/21/2022 at 6:49 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

I personally think it provides more of an impetus to get one of Woodruff or Burnes (probably Woodruff) signed to an extension ASAP. You can always go out and sign the Housers of the world, but we have two elite pitchers whose control is expiring and who are not as easily replaceable. It helps that we have Peralta and Ashby signed and Gasser waiting in the wings, but we'll still need a rotation anchor if we hope to capitalize on this next wave of young talent. Houser won't accomplish that and would amount to an unnecessary signing imo. 

A Houser as an external candidate will be more expensive than extending the Houser we have.

I was thinking something like this:

2023: $4.5 million

2024: $4.5 million

2025: $4,5 million

2026: $4.5 million

2027: $6 million (team option ($2 million buyout)

2028: $6 million team option ($1 million buyout)

[Brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

A Houser as an external candidate will be more expensive than extending the Houser we have.

I was thinking something like this:

2023: $4.5 million

2024: $4.5 million

2025: $4,5 million

2026: $4.5 million

2027: $6 million (team option ($2 million buyout)

2028: $6 million team option ($1 million buyout)

Wholly unnecessary. Houser's production doesn't justify an extension to his age 35 season. You need to be able to consistently churn out pitchers like Houser from your farm system. In recent years, the Brewers have shown they have no problem doing just that. On the other hand, the Woodruffs and Burneses of the world are much much harder to develop and is why all extension efforts should be directed towards them, or if that fails, they should be traded for prospects who have a reasonable chance at ascending to that level. 

[clancyphile]

40 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Wholly unnecessary. Houser's production doesn't justify an extension to his age 35 season. You need to be able to consistently churn out pitchers like Houser from your farm system. In recent years, the Brewers have shown they have no problem doing just that. On the other hand, the Woodruffs and Burneses of the world are much much harder to develop and is why all extension efforts should be directed towards them, or if that fails, they should be traded for prospects who have a reasonable chance at ascending to that level. 

Where are they? We'd have some options at AAA and/or AA if that is the case. I'm not sure I see then outside Small and Glasser, and the former had control issues.

The last two years are team options, incidentally. So if we do have a glut of pitchers, we can always decline the option.

And yes, ideally, extend Burnes and/or Woodruff - work something out and go the full Bobby Bonilla if necessary. but failing that, at least score some stability with Houser and/or Lauer as a fallback.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, clancyphile said:

Where are they? We'd have some options at AAA and/or AA if that is the case. I'm not sure I see then outside Small and Glasser, and the former had control issues.

The last two years are team options, incidentally. So if we do have a glut of pitchers, we can always decline the option.

And yes, ideally, extend Burnes and/or Woodruff - work something out and go the full Bobby Bonilla if necessary. but failing that, at least score some stability with Houser and/or Lauer as a fallback.

Ashby, Gasser, and Peralta are already here long term. Then, you have Rodriguez, Misiorowski, Henderson, etc. in the lower levels of the minors. Why would you guarantee Houser money past his prime into his early to mid 30s when his production, as I have stated, just doesn't justify the risk? If you want to talk about buying out a year or two of Eric Lauer's free agency, that would be something to consider, as he's younger and has been more productive. But it just doesn't line up for that kind of extension for Houser right now given how pinched we are for pennies, and the fact that we have Burnes/Woodruff who we need to focus our efforts on. 

[CheezWizHed]

It is funny how quickly people forget the life of signing the Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, Wade Miley, J Chacin, Gio Gonzolez, Junior Guerra, and Matt Garzas of the world. 

We've had 2 years of being able to mostly source our starters internally.  We aren't far from being right back there again. 

[clancyphile]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Ashby, Gasser, and Peralta are already here long term. Then, you have Rodriguez, Misiorowski, Henderson, etc. in the lower levels of the minors. Why would you guarantee Houser money past his prime into his early to mid 30s when his production, as I have stated, just doesn't justify the risk? If you want to talk about buying out a year or two of Eric Lauer's free agency, that would be something to consider, as he's younger and has been more productive. But it just doesn't line up for that kind of extension for Houser right now given how pinched we are for pennies, and the fact that we have Burnes/Woodruff who we need to focus our efforts on. 

I agree. Burnes and Woodruff are the top priorities to extend. But it doesn't hurt to make some plans for Lauer/Houser as a backup, just in case.

It never hurts to have a Plan B if Plan A doesn't work out.

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I agree. Burnes and Woodruff are the top priorities to extend. But it doesn't hurt to make some plans for Lauer/Houser as a backup, just in case.

It never hurts to have a Plan B if Plan A doesn't work out.

I think you're slightly misunderstanding me. Houser is no backup for Burnes/Woodruff. While a valuable piece of rotation depth atm, he's a guy who, if he continues to produce at current levels, we should be content to let walk once his six years of team control expires. The real backup is in the high-level pitching prospects we would presumably get in any Burnes/Woodruff trade. 

Lauer, again, is a different story as he's younger and more productive than Houser. If you buy out a year or two of his free agency, you'll have a middle of the rotation pitcher who is still in his prime years. 

[clancyphile]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think you're slightly misunderstanding me. Houser is no backup for Burnes/Woodruff. While a valuable piece of rotation depth atm, he's a guy who, if he continues to produce at current levels, we should be content to let walk once his six years of team control expires. The real backup is in the high-level pitching prospects we would presumably get in any Burnes/Woodruff trade. 

Lauer, again, is a different story as he's younger and more productive than Houser. If you buy out a year or two of his free agency, you'll have a middle of the rotation pitcher who is still in his prime years. 

I agree, Houser is valuable. I put him on roughly the same tier as Lauer. That said, I guarantee him four years - so, after 2024, if we have a lot of options in the rotation, Houser - signed at a relative bargain ($11 million guaranteed through 2026) - can also fetch prospects. Houser's skillset, like Brent Suter's isn't going to just fade out, so teams know they get some consistent performance from him.

[jay87shot]

I would no question offer a contract. I don't think I would offer him more than 2 years on an extension. Last year he did have a 3.32 ERA and finished really strong. I would listen to offers on a trade as well, one of the pitchers will be gone. It could be Houser if the team decides to keep the top starters.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 10/22/2022 at 6:25 AM, DougX57 said:

I see Houser getting traded and Small stepping into his role. Houser is not a strike out pitcher and it is time for Small to step it up or be considered a bust.

I think people are too quick to throw out “bust” status. Houser is a perfectly adequate pitcher if you have 3-4 better pitchers in front of him. He’s the type of guy I’m happy to keep around through his arb years but also the kind I’d be really hesitant to extend well into his 30s.