Is there any chance Adrian Houser isn't offered arbitration?

[John Bonnes]

As I was putting together my deep dive into Brewers payroll, I started second-guessing myself on whether the Brewers might not offer arbitration to Adrian Houser. He had a 4.73 ERA, isn't a strikeout guy and missed basically two months with an elbow injury. They'll likely need to pay him $4.5M or so and he's 29 years old. Could he be a non-tender candidate?

[Thurston Fluff]

I think his success as a reliever combined with what will probably be a small raise gets him tendered. If it's up to me that's where I'd use him next season as his stuff seemed to play up there.

[Brewcrew82]

I think there's a real chance. But, in the end, I suspect he'll be tendered due to the emphasis Stearns seemed to place on effective pitching depth at his season-ending press conference. Houser's numbers aren't as good as our other starters, but he's no Costanza. 

[Robocaller]

I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered. I'd be surprised if he made anywhere near $4.5M (he made 2.4M in 2022).

.

[nate82]

5 hours ago, John Bonnes said:

As I was putting together my deep dive into Brewers payroll, I started second-guessing myself on whether the Brewers might not offer arbitration to Adrian Houser. He had a 4.73 ERA, isn't a strikeout guy and missed basically two months with an elbow injury. They'll likely need to pay him $4.5M or so and he's 29 years old. Could he be a non-tender candidate?

Non-tender no possibly traded yes.  Houser isn't bad as your #5 pitcher he is basically the definition of a #5 pitcher.  I don't think he will get $4.5m as his '22 salary was only $2.4m that would be almost doubling his current salary.  I think he will get closer to $3.5m than he will get to $4m.  

I think the Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Giants and Rangers would all have some interest in Houser.  He won't bring back a lot but he could bring back a decent reliever or two in a trade.    

[Jopal78]

Agree. Zero chance he’s non tendered. Since he would at least be a #4-#5 on most teams; if he’s not in the Brewers future plans they could easily trade him. 

[Lathund]

Probably getting tendered. But I think the decision will depend on what the Brewers make of his sinker. Last year it was one of the most valuable pitches in all of baseball, and this year it was almost exactly neutral. So with a team that's so big on pitch design, I think their decision comes down to if they think they can get his sinker back working or not. If they know what went wrong and think they know how to fix it, then it's a very easy tender. 

[torts]

The last man standing in the Gomez/fiers trade, kind of surprised, honestly. 

[John Bonnes]

MLBTR predicts an arbitration numbers of $3.6M which makes offering him arb a little easier. 

I still wonder, if they want to free up some money, if he's not where they do try and do so. I'd make the chances of him not being tendered at less than 40%, but they're not 0.

[CheezWizHed]

I have to think they are approaching zero... Houser is a legit starting MLB pitcher.  Even a #5 pitcher at $3.6M isn't at all expensive.  At a minimum, you just trade him to get some value back.  Just bad roster moves giving away talent by non-tendering him.... not that we haven't done similarly bad moves this past year...

[rickh150]

I’d be surprised if he is not back. A SP who has some upside; moreover, our rotation is not deep. Who are they going to fall back on in 2023 without him? Alexander?  Surprised and a little shocked if this happens. Not as shocked as the Hader trade, of course.

[clancyphile]

I wonder if a longer-term deal might not be a good idea.

2023: $4 million

2024: $4 million

2025: $4.5 million

2026: $4.5 million

2027: $5 million (team option, $2 million buyout)

2028: $5 million (team option, $1 million buyout)

For a #4/#5 starter, not a bad option.

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

I’d be surprised if he is not back. A SP who has some upside; moreover, our rotation is not deep. Who are they going to fall back on in 2023 without him? Alexander?  Surprised and a little shocked if this happens. Not as shocked as the Hader trade, of course.

Well, Gasser and Small could be guys we could fall back on. 

That takes Gasser out of play to get more work in AAA and then come up and give the BP a potential boost later in the year, AND it counts on Small putting it together enough to be a swing man/#6/7 SPer.

Or just pay a pittance(relatively speaking) for a guy who has shown he can be a nice rotation depth...and who I think has upside to be more than that. 

 

[UpandIn]

46 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I wonder if a longer-term deal might not be a good idea.

2023: $4 million

2024: $4 million

2025: $4.5 million

2026: $4.5 million

2027: $5 million (team option, $2 million buyout)

2028: $5 million (team option, $1 million buyout)

For a #4/#5 starter, not a bad option.

Man, you are the ying to everyone's yang, aren't you! 

Question; "should we non-tender Adrian Houser."

Clancy; "We should EXTEND him for 6 more years!"

[Oxy]

no

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Well, Gasser and Small could be guys we could fall back on. 

That takes Gasser out of play to get more work in AAA and then come up and give the BP a potential boost later in the year, AND it counts on Small putting it together enough to be a swing man/#6/7 SPer.

Or just pay a pittance(relatively speaking) for a guy who has shown he can be a nice rotation depth...and who I think has upside to be more than that. 

 

Did you see Small pitch in the majors this year? He didn’t fool enough major league hitters to swing at his pitches and doesn’t have the stuff to blow it by them either. I don’t think they’re going to count on him for anything anytime soon. That’s why journeyman Alexander was with the team over Small in the first place. 

[SF70]

33 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Did you see Small pitch in the majors this year? He didn’t fool enough major league hitters to swing at his pitches and doesn’t have the stuff to blow it by them either. I don’t think they’re going to count on him for anything anytime soon. That’s why journeyman Alexander was with the team over Small in the first place. 

Yeah Small is a mess. Has no idea where where the ball is going when it comes out of his hand. 

Disagree that he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff though. Had 12 whiffs vs the Cubbies in less than 3 innings before he lost his release-point.

Hopefully the lab & coaches can figure-out a fix for that release-point so we can see his deceptive stuff get hitters out again on a consistent basis.

[JohnBriggs12]

If you think his 2022 performance is what you're going to get going forward, non-tendering is a possibility.  But at 29, I think Brewers believe he's more likely to bounce back closer to the guy he was in 2021, so it's a no-brainer.  Besides something close to $4 million won't prevent them from moving on in season if he regresses further nor is it a hindrance for moving him at the deadline if he's solid but the team is out of it.

[monty57]

I think they'll offer arby to Houser. They had six starting pitchers to start this season, and injuries to their pitching staff still derailed the '22 season, so they'll want to keep the depth. 

A lot will happen this off-season, but for now Houser should pencil in as a back-of-the-rotation start who can also pitch out of the bullpen. He showed in '21 that he can play up to a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy.

The '21 version of Houser is a great deal at $3.6M, and even if he's relegated to bullpen duty, having him on a one-year/$3.6M deal is worth it.

It would be nice if the downswing this year is "fixable." If he proves to be a solid rotation piece, he gives the team a lot of options. They can pitch him in the rotation or bullpen. They could trade him if the prospects pass him up, or he would probably not be overly expensive to extend for a couple of years as they transition away from Woodruff/Burnes. But, that's all dependent on him getting back to his '21 self.

[clancyphile]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Yeah Small is a mess. Has no idea where where the ball is going when it comes out of his hand. 

Disagree that he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff though. Had 12 whiffs vs the Cubbies in less than 3 innings before he lost his release-point.

Hopefully the lab & coaches can figure-out a fix for that release-point so we can see his deceptive stuff get hitters out again on a consistent basis.

Maybe Small's role isn't the rotation, but out of the bullpen. Could he be a (if not the) Hader replacement the Crew is looking for?

[nate82]

41 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Maybe Small's role isn't the rotation, but out of the bullpen. Could he be a (if not the) Hader replacement the Crew is looking for?

LOL NO!

At best he would be a replacement for Suter with Suter being DFA'd in the bullpen. 

[Hopper]

56 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Maybe Small's role isn't the rotation, but out of the bullpen. Could he be a (if not the) Hader replacement the Crew is looking for?

ummmmmm

[MrTPlush]

They are going to offer him arby and he will be on the team. He is a solid starter and a team needs a good 7 of those every year. Why on earth would we not offer arby to a guy who posted a 3.22 ERA in 140 innings in 2021? Even at his statline in 2022 I will happily have him be the #6 guy. The last thing you want is to constantly be calling up unproven guys from AAA like Ethan Small. That loses a lot of games. Your #6 and #7 starters are arguably some of the most important people on the entire roster.

[MrTPlush]

11 minutes ago, Hopper said:

ummmmmm

To be fair...his comment sounds a whole like what Stearns must have been telling himself at the deadline when he traded Hader and replaced him with trash. 

[UpandIn]

15 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Did you see Small pitch in the majors this year? He didn’t fool enough major league hitters to swing at his pitches and doesn’t have the stuff to blow it by them either. I don’t think they’re going to count on him for anything anytime soon. That’s why journeyman Alexander was with the team over Small in the first place. 

Yeah, I watched the 6 innings he threw this year and he struggled...like many Lefties do early in their career. Particularly those without a big fastball. 

 

Also...my post was literally arguing to KEEP Houser as you'd otherwise be counting on Gasser AND Small to turn it around from last season. So, I'm not sure I see the issue here.