Jopal78’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

Jopal78 · October 14, 2022

I think Abreu+Frelick produces more than Renfroe would in '23. Christian Vazquez is better offensively and defensively than Caratini but is a few years older...so there is some risk there but Vazquez with Feliciano as the #2 can't be worse than Narvaez/Caratini.

Would like to be better at 3B than a Peterson/Brosseau platoon, but absent a trade it's not going to happen. I also am not sure if they would have Turang break in as a utility player, or fill that spot with a bargain bin veteran so Turang can play every day in AAA.

One other option would be to move on from Renfroe, Tellez, Suter. Stick with Caratini, Abreu at 1B, Yelich at DH, and Benintendi in LF, but keeping below 130 would be iffy.

? Christian Vazquez ($7.50M)
1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M)
2B: Luis Urias ($4.50M)
3B: Jace Peterson ($2.50M)
SS: Willy Adames ($9.50M)
LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M)
CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)
RF: Sal Frelick ($0.7M)
DH: Jose Abreu ($18.0M)
4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($0.7M)
Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M)
Backup ? Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)
SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.50M)
SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M)
SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M)
RP: Brent Suter ($3.00M)
RP: Peter Strzelecki ($.7M)
RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
RP: Trevor Gott ($1.40M)
RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)
RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M)
RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)
RP: Jake Cousins ($.7M)

Payroll is 5.77% under budget

Brewcrew82 · October 14, 2022

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I think Abreu+Frelick produces more than Renfroe would in '23. Christian Vazquez is better offensively and defensively than Caratini but is a few years older...so there is some risk there but Vazquez with Feliciano as the #2 can't be worse than Narvaez/Caratini.

Would like to be better at 3B than a Peterson/Brosseau platoon, but absent a trade it's not going to happen. I also am not sure if they would have Turang break in as a utility player, or fill that spot with a bargain bin veteran so Turang can play every day in AAA.

One other option would be to move on from Renfroe, Tellez, Suter. Stick with Caratini, Abreu at 1B, Yelich at DH, and Benintendi in LF, but keeping below 130 would be iffy.

? Christian Vazquez ($7.50M)

1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M)

2B: Luis Urias ($4.50M)

3B: Jace Peterson ($2.50M)

SS: Willy Adames ($9.50M)

LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M)

CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)

RF: Sal Frelick ($0.7M)

DH: Jose Abreu ($18.0M)

4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($0.7M)

Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)

Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M)

Backup ? Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)

SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.50M)

SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)

SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)

SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M)

SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M)

RP: Brent Suter ($3.00M)

RP: Peter Strzelecki ($.7M)

RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)

RP: Trevor Gott ($1.40M)

RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)

RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M)

RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)

RP: Jake Cousins ($.7M)

Payroll is 5.77% under budget

You're going to non-tender Renfroe, but not Suter or Houser?? And if we did move on from Renfroe, why on earth would we go ahead and sign Benintendi, who will not only command the same amount of money in FA, but would effectively block our young OF's? Finally, Feliciano could definitely be worse than Narvaez/Caratini as his defense was atrocious in AAA this year.

Jopal78 · October 14, 2022

41 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You're going to non-tender Renfroe, but not Suter or Houser?? And if we did move on from Renfroe, why on earth would we go ahead and sign Benintendi, who will not only command the same amount of money in FA, but would effectively block our young OF's? Finally, Feliciano could definitely be worse than Narvaez/Caratini as his defense was atrocious in AAA this year.

The thing you fail to repeatedly see in all of this is: the difference between even a .740-.750 OPS outfielder and Renfroe at .790-.800 is not worth the difference in price between $700K and 11 million dollars. In a team like the Brewers with limited financial resources, tremendous outfield depth in AAA, that's a pretty big chunk of cash for a player who is ok, but is and has been at his ceiling as a .790-.800 OPS outfielder.

Since they have 4 players in AAA who most likely could step in and play competently at the MLB level; one way to become more talented without trading away a key major league player or minor league depth is to reallocate the money they would otherwise pay Renfroe as a portion of an offer to a free agent hitter like Jose Abreu who could play 1B or DH, where the Brewers do not have depth.

As for Benintendi, you should read more carefully what I wrote. First of all, I don't think the numbers would work anyways. But if if they did nobody would be blocked as Benintendi would play LF, Yelich to DH, Abreu to 1B and two outfield spots open for their young players. I could be wrong but I believe the Brewers will look to become more balanced and move away from having a collection of players with big time power and poor on base skills. Abreu fits that bill, if they could afford two free agents, Benintendi would as well.

I'll largely disregard your comments about Suter and Houser except that the Brewers likely won't non-tender either of them. I assume both are in their plans of 2023, but if they are not, they would have zero trouble trading either or both of them.

As for Feliciano, he's been in the organization since 2016, and has been on the 40 man roster since Nov. of '20; it's basically now or never for him with the Brewers.

Brewcrew82 · October 14, 2022

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The thing you fail to repeatedly see in all of this is: the difference between even a .740-.750 OPS outfielder and Renfroe at .790-.800 is not worth the difference in price between $700K and 11 million dollars. In a team like the Brewers with limited financial resources, tremendous outfield depth in AAA, that's a pretty big chunk of cash for a player who is ok, but is and has been at his ceiling as a .790-.800 OPS outfielder.

Since they have 4 players in AAA who most likely could step in and play competently at the MLB level; one way to become more talented without trading away a key major league player or minor league depth is to reallocate the money they would otherwise pay Renfroe as a portion of an offer to a free agent hitter like Jose Abreu who could play 1B or DH, where the Brewers do not have depth.

As for Benintendi, you should read more carefully what I wrote. First of all, I don't think the numbers would work anyways. But if if they did nobody would be blocked as Benintendi would play LF, Yelich to DH, Abreu to 1B and two outfield spots open for their young players. I could be wrong but I believe the Brewers will look to become more balanced and move away from having a collection of players with big time power and poor on base skills. Abreu fits that bill, if they could afford two free agents, Benintendi would as well.

I'll largely disregard your comments about Suter and Houser except that the Brewers likely won't non-tender either of them. I assume both are in their plans of 2023, but if they are not, they would have zero trouble trading either or both of them.

As for Feliciano, he's been in the organization since 2016, and has been on the 40 man roster since Nov. of '20; it's basically now or never for him with the Brewers.

Yeah, the numbers and logic just doesn't make sense whatsoever with Benintendi because the whole idea behind your non-tendering of Renfroe was to save money to upgrade other areas of the roster. Benintendi blows away that savings at the same position and for literally the same production as Renfroe, when we already have, as you say, tremendous outfield depth in AAA. Let's face it, you just don't like Renfroe for some reason. I don't understand it, as he was one of the few bright-spots on the season and remains a top 10 RF in baseball.

And why are you so sure that the Brewers would non-tender Renfroe, but not Suter and Houser? If the whole idea is to save money when you can get similar production from elsewhere in the organization, then that logic should certainly extend to Suter and Houser, who combined for a grand -.5 WAR on the season.

They're not going to just give Feliciano the back-up catcher spot based on how long he's been in the organization. He actually has to prove that he's capable of handling it, which hasn't happened to this point, especially with respect to his defense.

Jopal78 · October 14, 2022

44 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, the numbers and logic just doesn't make sense whatsoever with Benintendi because the whole idea behind your non-tendering of Renfroe was to save money to upgrade other areas of the roster. Benintendi blows away that savings at the same position and for literally the same production as Renfroe, when we already have, as you say, tremendous outfield depth in AAA. Let's face it, you just don't like Renfroe for some reason. I don't understand it, as he was one of the few bright-spots on the season and remains a top 10 RF in baseball.

And why are you so sure that the Brewers would non-tender Renfroe, but not Suter and Houser? If the whole idea is to save money when you can get similar production from elsewhere in the organization, then that logic should certainly extend to Suter and Houser, who combined for a grand -.5 WAR on the season.

They're not going to just give Feliciano the back-up catcher spot based on how long he's been in the organization. He actually has to prove that he's capable of handling it, which hasn't happened to this point, especially with respect to his defense.

I don't dislike Renfroe, but he is what he is: a pure slugger who doesn't walk much, or hit for average. While he's certainly not the only one who fits that description, he does play for a team that went 19-30 when they didn't homer, and were near the bottom of the pile in terms of hitting with runners on base and runners in scoring position.

Now couple that with the fact, he's the easiest player to move on from: he makes significant money, has little to no upside, and plays a position where they Brewers have two former first round picks and others in AAA.

They could always attempt to trade Renfroe, but then again most contending teams would have tepid interest because of their current RF situation (Betts, Acuna, Soto, Marte, Harper, Kyle Tucker, Oscar Gonzalez, Teoscar Hernandez, Nootbaar, etc) and the non-contenders are probably not taking on that type of contract.

The difference between Renfroe and the pitchers Suter and Houser is they're more valuable and make substantially less money. Any team can use a lefty swing man like Suter with a career WHIP of 1.21 with a 3:1 walk to strike out ratio. Houser suffered a shoulder injury in 2022 and had a bad season, but he still could be a #5 starter on just about every contender and probably as high as a #3 starter on a bad team, and he has multiple years of team control remaining. I could be wrong but I'd bet both of those pitchers are in the Brewers' plans for '23, and if not they would certainly be able to trade them before having to non-tender them.

We'll see what happens at catcher. The Padres sent the Brewers cash in the deal for Caratini to off-set his 2 million dollar salary, so I really don't see Milwaukee handing him a raise after he kind of sucked for them in '22. Obviously, they're not likely going sign two new free agent catchers. And they've thought well enough of Feliciano to keep him on their 40 man roster the last two years. What seems most logical is they sign a #1 and bring in some NRI veterans to compete with Feliciano for the #2 spot.

As for Benintendi, yeah IF the Brewers could sign two major free agent players, he'd be a good get despite the fact he plays LF. It wouldn't block anyone, and he's a very different player than Renfroe. He doesn't bring the thunder like Hunter, but he doesn't strike out a ton and is above average at getting on base. That's the whole point: the '22 Brewers were an average team with a bunch of sluggers with below average on-base skills. Since they were an "also ran" with that approach in '22 maybe they should try something else next year.

Brewcrew82 · October 14, 2022

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't dislike Renfroe, but he is what he is: a pure slugger who doesn't walk much, or hit for average. While he's certainly not the only one who fits that description, he does play for a team that went 19-30 when they didn't homer, and were near the bottom of the pile in terms of hitting with runners on base and runners in scoring position.

Now couple that with the fact, he's the easiest player to move on from: he makes significant money, has little to no upside, and plays a position where they Brewers have two former first round picks and others in AAA.

They could always attempt to trade Renfroe, but then again most contending teams would have tepid interest because of their current RF situation (Betts, Acuna, Soto, Marte, Harper, Kyle Tucker, Oscar Gonzalez, Teoscar Hernandez, Nootbaar, etc) and the non-contenders are probably not taking on that type of contract.

The difference between Renfroe and the pitchers Suter and Houser is they're more valuable and make substantially less money. Any team can use a lefty swing man like Suter with a career WHIP of 1.21 with a 3:1 walk to strike out ratio. Houser suffered a shoulder injury in 2022 and had a bad season, but he still could be a #5 starter on just about every contender and probably as high as a #3 starter on a bad team, and he has multiple years of team control remaining. I could be wrong but I'd bet both of those pitchers are in the Brewers' plans for '23, and if not they would certainly be able to trade them before having to non-tender them.

We'll see what happens at catcher. The Padres sent the Brewers cash in the deal for Caratini to off-set his 2 million dollar salary, so I really don't see Milwaukee handing him a raise after he kind of sucked for them in '22. Obviously, they're not likely going sign two new free agent catchers. And they've thought well enough of Feliciano to keep him on their 40 man roster the last two years. What seems most logical is they sign a #1 and bring in some NRI veterans to compete with Feliciano for the #2 spot.

As for Benintendi, yeah IF the Brewers could sign two major free agent players, he'd be a good get despite the fact he plays LF. It wouldn't block anyone, and he's a very different player than Renfroe. He doesn't bring the thunder like Hunter, but he doesn't strike out a ton and is above average at getting on base. That's the whole point: the '22 Brewers were an average team with a bunch of sluggers with below average on-base skills. Since they were an "also ran" with that approach in '22 maybe they should try something else next year.

You say Renfroe has "no upside", but where he is right now at his position relative to the rest of the league is better than every one of our position players except for Adames. But I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one and see which one of us is proven right in a little over a month.

Suter and Houser are the literal definition of replacement-level players. Houser may rebound and produce more in line with 2021, when he was a good #4 starter, but I question whether he is likely to do so given the new rules. If you're going to jettison Renfroe due to cost, which his production actually justifies, then you have to apply the same logic to Suter and Houser, as their production this year does not come close to matching their projected cost

The whole (potentially) non-tendering Renfroe and then signing Benintendi (for the same cost or greater) thing is just bizarre. In that situation, the savings should be used to bolster the bullpen and rotation depth. Based on Stearns' season-ending press conference, that is the direction he seems to want to take.

Robocaller · October 14, 2022

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The thing you fail to repeatedly see in all of this is: the difference between even a .740-.750 OPS outfielder and Renfroe at .790-.800 is not worth the difference in price between $700K and 11 million dollars.

Well, there's your fundamental error. You can count on Renfroe getting around .800 OPS, barring injury. You can't count on a rookie having an OPS of over .700.

Jopal78 · October 15, 2022

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Well, there's your fundamental error. You can count on Renfroe getting around .800 OPS, barring injury. You can't count on a rookie having an OPS of over .700.

Yep, and they’ll never know until they try. Like I’ve said there aren’t a lot of paths to get better without adding a ton of payroll (which is not going to happen).

There’s nothing wrong with Renfroe, but he gave them everything they could’ve hoped for in ‘22 and finished 7th out of 15 teams.

sveumrules · October 15, 2022

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

and were near the bottom of the pile in terms of hitting with runners on base and runners in scoring position.

Brewers 110 wRC+ with men on base ranked 14th in MLB, Renfroe had a 131 wRC+ with men on base.

Brewers 120 wRC+ with RISP ranked 6th in MLB, Renfroe had a 123 wRC+ with RISP.

Jopal78 · October 15, 2022

41 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Brewers 110 wRC+ with men on base ranked 14th in MLB, Renfroe had a 131 wRC+ with men on base.

Brewers 120 wRC+ with RISP ranked 6th in MLB, Renfroe had a 123 wRC+ with RISP.

Yep, Renfroe is lord amongst the losers that were the ‘22 Brewers especially in terms of an impossible to calculate “weighted runs created” There’s seemingly an impossible to calculate analytic to say every player is awesome. Pin a medal on him.

Brewcrew82 · October 15, 2022

21 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Yep, Renfroe is lord amongst the losers that were the ‘22 Brewers especially in terms of an impossible to calculate “weighted runs created” There’s seemingly an impossible to calculate analytic to say every player is awesome. Pin a medal on him.

Now you’re a wRC+ truther (aka pretty much the best available stat to evaluate offense)??? Lol. Did you know the earth is round, too?

Jopal78 · October 15, 2022

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Now you’re a wRC+ truther (aka pretty much the best available stat to evaluate offense)??? Lol. Did you know the earth is round, too?

I admit, I don’t know wRC+ could very well be accurate. However I do know if I gave you a stat sheet of the ‘22 Brewers you wouldn’t be able to tell me their wRC+.

Theres seemingly a formula to prove any statistical point one wants to make.

sveumrules · October 15, 2022

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I admit, I don’t know wRC+ could very well be accurate. However I do know if I gave you a stat sheet of the ‘22 Brewers you wouldn’t be able to tell me their wRC+.

Theres seemingly a formula to prove any statistical point one wants to make.

wRC+ is just a more granular version of OPS+.

League average OPS with runners on was 735 in 2022. Brewers as a team were at 756, Renfroe at 843.

League average OPS with RISP was 741 in 2022. Brewers as a team were at 798, Renfroe at 823.

Jopal78 · October 15, 2022

22 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

wRC+ is just a more granular version of OPS+.

League average OPS with runners on was 735 in 2022. Brewers as a team were at 756, Renfroe at 843.

League average OPS with RISP was 741 in 2022. Brewers as a team were at 798, Renfroe at 823.

Sure, maybe they demonstrated tremendous power with runners in scoring position and were awful at not making outs. After all they did hit a lot of homeruns. There’s a formula to argue any point.

The team kind of sucked in ‘22. Of the teams that were actually trying to win they finished dead last. In a league where 40% of the teams make the post season, Renfroe was indisputably king on a team that was an also ran.

I don’t believe because he was the best slugger on a mediocre team, the Brewers should automatically punch his ticket for ‘23, especially when there are few paths to get better in ‘23 without spending more money.

sveumrules · October 15, 2022

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

The team kind of sucked in ‘22. Of the teams that were actually trying to win they finished dead last. In a league where 40% of the teams make the post season, Renfroe was indisputably king on a team that was an also ran.

San Fran wasn’t trying? Won the most games in MLB last year, spent $26M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 81 games.

The Red Sox weren’t trying? Made the ALCS last year, spent $80M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 78 games.

The White Sox weren’t trying? Won their division last year, spent $66M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 81 games.

The Twins weren’t trying? Signed Correa and Buxton to huge deals, traded for Sonny Gray and some Yankees, spent $16M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 78 games.

The Angels weren’t trying? They have Ohtani/Trout, signed Thor for $21M, gave almost $100M to Iglesias, Loup, Tepera and Lorenzen, spent $50M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 73 games.

Robocaller · October 15, 2022

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Yep, and they’ll never know until they try. Like I’ve said there aren’t a lot of paths to get better without adding a ton of payroll (which is not going to happen).

There’s nothing wrong with Renfroe, but he gave them everything they could’ve hoped for in ‘22 and finished 7th out of 15 teams.

What boggles my little mind is that you think the way to improve from 7th is to let the best hitter on the team (whose salary will be a slight bargain) walk without getting anything back.
He's the lower risk alternative. The time to take the higher risk alternative is when they decide to do a soft rebuild (when they've traded a good chunk of our starting rotation away).

Jopal78 · October 15, 2022

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

What boggles my little mind is that you think the way to improve from 7th is to let the best hitter on the team (whose salary will be a slight bargain) walk without getting anything back.
He's the lower risk alternative. The time to take the higher risk alternative is when they decide to do a soft rebuild (when they've traded a good chunk of our starting rotation away).

Read more carefully, it’s actually simple letting Renfroe walk (or trading him) allows them to use the money he’d otherwise make in obtaining a better player (the famed “payroll flexibility”) yet without creating a hole somewhere else on the roster.

This is a byproduct of where they find themselves as a club: payroll at or near it’s limit and dead last amongst the teams trying for the playoffs in the NL.

They’re not going to sign someone like Carlos Correra, they’re not going to trade a key piece like Burnes and/or Woodruff and realistically expect to get better in ‘23.

Other than merely running it back again and hoping for better luck, how do they get better next year?

Robocaller · October 16, 2022

17 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Read more carefully, it’s actually simple letting Renfroe walk (or trading him) allows them to use the money he’d otherwise make in obtaining a better player (the famed “payroll flexibility”) yet without creating a hole somewhere else on the roster.

This is a byproduct of where they find themselves as a club: payroll at or near it’s limit and dead last amongst the teams trying for the playoffs in the NL.

They’re not going to sign someone like Carlos Correra, they’re not going to trade a key piece like Burnes and/or Woodruff and realistically expect to get better in ‘23.

Other than merely running it back again and hoping for better luck, how do they get better next year?

They don't by committing to a bunch of rookies and jettison their best hitter.
They do by their SP pitching like they did in 2021; if they don't do that, it's irrelevant, they aren't going anywhere. I suggested signing Abreu as you did (though I predicted $2M more per year); seems like a good idea, but there is a ton of risk on counting on that, as he will have several suitors (including, apparently, the Cubs). And if you don't sign Abreu, the options for improving upon Renfroe are even smaller.

They SHOULD have been a 91-win team, and would have done that if their pitching didn't take a nose dive. It's reasonable to think that they could reach that level again. The Cardinals should have been a 86-win team, but they had a bunch of older players have one of their best seasons ever; It's reasonable to think they will be worse next year.

nate82 · October 16, 2022

On 10/14/2022 at 8:35 AM, Jopal78 said:

I think Abreu+Frelick produces more than Renfroe would in '23. Christian Vazquez is better offensively and defensively than Caratini but is a few years older...so there is some risk there but Vazquez with Feliciano as the #2 can't be worse than Narvaez/Caratini.

Would like to be better at 3B than a Peterson/Brosseau platoon, but absent a trade it's not going to happen. I also am not sure if they would have Turang break in as a utility player, or fill that spot with a bargain bin veteran so Turang can play every day in AAA.

One other option would be to move on from Renfroe, Tellez, Suter. Stick with Caratini, Abreu at 1B, Yelich at DH, and Benintendi in LF, but keeping below 130 would be iffy.

? Christian Vazquez ($7.50M)

1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M)

2B: Luis Urias ($4.50M)

3B: Jace Peterson ($2.50M)

SS: Willy Adames ($9.50M)

LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M)

CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)

RF: Sal Frelick ($0.7M)

DH: Jose Abreu ($18.0M)

4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($0.7M)

Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)

Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M)

Backup ? Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)

SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.50M)

SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)

SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)

SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M)

SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M)

RP: Brent Suter ($3.00M)

RP: Peter Strzelecki ($.7M)

RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)

RP: Trevor Gott ($1.40M)

RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)

RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M)

RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)

RP: Jake Cousins ($.7M)

Payroll is 5.77% under budget

You are giving Vazquez $7.5m where he just barely outperformed Caratini? I mean sure if your goal is to set money on fire that is a good way to do it.

Jose Abreu at $18m is also an overpay you may only get 100 games out of him and he is getting older. I like Abreu but no thanks at that price.

Suter at $3m while removing Renfroe is a dumb idea. Suter pitched nearly all of his games in low leverage situations and that is way too much to pay someone to pitch low leverage situations. There are far better options in the minors than Suter to pitch those innings at a lower cost.

Adding Benintendi wouldn't fix anything as he would either be batting lead off or batting second. That means you either have Yelich batting 2nd or Yelich batting 3rd or you have Adames batting 3rd or Adames batting 2nd. Take your poison pill how you want it but adding Benintendi would be a bad idea especially if you are replacing him with Renfroe. You basically just lost a power hitter in Renfroe who is probably your best #5 hitter. You effectively make the team worse by replacing Renfroe with Benintendi.

Having Mitchell, Feliciano, Frelick and Turang all on the team is not going to happen. That is way too many rookies on the team.

I don't see this team finishing better than this years team the way you have it constructed. At best I think your team finishes with the same record or worse. The bullpen actually looks worse so props on doing that.

Jopal78 · October 17, 2022

On 10/16/2022 at 2:16 AM, Robocaller said:

They don't by committing to a bunch of rookies and jettison their best hitter.
They do by their SP pitching like they did in 2021; if they don't do that, it's irrelevant, they aren't going anywhere. I suggested signing Abreu as you did (though I predicted $2M more per year); seems like a good idea, but there is a ton of risk on counting on that, as he will have several suitors (including, apparently, the Cubs). And if you don't sign Abreu, the options for improving upon Renfroe are even smaller.

They SHOULD have been a 91-win team, and would have done that if their pitching didn't take a nose dive. It's reasonable to think that they could reach that level again. The Cardinals should have been a 86-win team, but they had a bunch of older players have one of their best seasons ever; It's reasonable to think they will be worse next year.

I don't really care that they "should" have been a 91 win team, they weren't. Yes, I agree they played below the talent level and had some injuries, but there is no way to prevent that, and it could very well be the case again next year. Thus, the question is how do you improve the team without dismantling the starting pitching (because if you dismantle the starting pitching you may as well start over completely), and I agree its a narrow path with some tough choices. .

I do think they are going to commit to some rookies in '23. For a couple of reasons. First, this group has mostly been together for a couple of seasons now and weren't very good as a contender; getting beaten badly in an upset in the Divisional series in '21 and missing the playoffs all together in '22. Secondly, Mitchell and Frelick are both former college player/first round picks who seemingly have nothing left to prove at AAA. Third, it's a team that always is going to be close to their payroll ceiling so saving money where they can and still competing is always the priority.

23 hours ago, nate82 said:

You are giving Vazquez $7.5m where he just barely outperformed Caratini? I mean sure if your goal is to set money on fire that is a good way to do it.

Jose Abreu at $18m is also an overpay you may only get 100 games out of him and he is getting older. I like Abreu but no thanks at that price.

Suter at $3m while removing Renfroe is a dumb idea. Suter pitched nearly all of his games in low leverage situations and that is way too much to pay someone to pitch low leverage situations. There are far better options in the minors than Suter to pitch those innings at a lower cost.

Adding Benintendi wouldn't fix anything as he would either be batting lead off or batting second. That means you either have Yelich batting 2nd or Yelich batting 3rd or you have Adames batting 3rd or Adames batting 2nd. Take your poison pill how you want it but adding Benintendi would be a bad idea especially if you are replacing him with Renfroe. You basically just lost a power hitter in Renfroe who is probably your best #5 hitter. You effectively make the team worse by replacing Renfroe with Benintendi.

Having Mitchell, Feliciano, Frelick and Turang all on the team is not going to happen. That is way too many rookies on the team.

I don't see this team finishing better than this years team the way you have it constructed. At best I think your team finishes with the same record or worse. The bullpen actually looks worse so props on doing that.

I would suggest you look at the stat sheet again. Vazquez .274/.315/.399 in '22. Caratini was .199/.300/.342. Vazquez was the better of the two defenders by most metrics as well.

As for Abreu he has been on the DL twice in his career and not since 2018, so I don't know why you would suggest he's suddenly not durable, you'd have been more credible suggesting his performance will tail off with age. Anyways, he is coming off a contract where his AAV was $16.6 million, and was a 4.2 WAR player last year (baseball reference). He's not going to take a pay cut, so if you think 18 million is too much, I'd love to hear your opinion on what comparable players you could get for less.

With Suter it's simple. He's a lefty swingman with good career numbers., he can make spot starts, and pitch multiple innings. If he was non-tendered by Milwaukee he would have a new guarantee from another club by the end of the week and probably at 3 million per year or more. There's not really an inefficiency between his projected salary and the cost to replace it.

As for the rookies, like I mentioned above, both Mitchell and Frelick are former college players and first round picks. Mitchell is already 24, had good numbers in AAA and held his own in limited at bats with Milwaukee. Frelick also hit at every level and is going to turn 23 next April. There's no reason to not give them both a shot in the major leagues in '23 especially when it would create "payroll flexibility".

As for Benintendi, batting order is irrelevant. He's a good defender, gets on base better than most Brewers players. I don't see Milwaukee signing two marquee free agents but if they did I think Abreu and Benintendi would be tremendous additions. Yes, the whole reason for adding players like Abreu and perhaps Benintendi is to move away from having several all or nothing sluggers in the lineup (Adames, Renfroe, Tellez, '22 Brewers 2nd in NL in homers but 6th in runs scored) and to raise the overall talent level on the roster.

Brewcrew82 · October 18, 2022

12 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't really care that they "should" have been a 91 win team, they weren't. Yes, I agree they played below the talent level and had some injuries, but there is no way to prevent that, and it could very well be the case again next year. Thus, the question is how do you improve the team without dismantling the starting pitching (because if you dismantle the starting pitching you may as well start over completely), and I agree its a narrow path with some tough choices. .

I do think they are going to commit to some rookies in '23. For a couple of reasons. First, this group has mostly been together for a couple of seasons now and weren't very good as a contender; getting beaten badly in an upset in the Divisional series in '21 and missing the playoffs all together in '22. Secondly, Mitchell and Frelick are both former college player/first round picks who seemingly have nothing left to prove at AAA. Third, it's a team that always is going to be close to their payroll ceiling so saving money where they can and still competing is always the priority.

I would suggest you look at the stat sheet again. Vazquez .274/.315/.399 in '22. Caratini was .199/.300/.342. Vazquez was the better of the two defenders by most metrics as well.

As for Abreu he has been on the DL twice in his career and not since 2018, so I don't know why you would suggest he's suddenly not durable, you'd have been more credible suggesting his performance will tail off with age. Anyways, he is coming off a contract where his AAV was $16.6 million, and was a 4.2 WAR player last year (baseball reference). He's not going to take a pay cut, so if you think 18 million is too much, I'd love to hear your opinion on what comparable players you could get for less.

With Suter it's simple. He's a lefty swingman with good career numbers., he can make spot starts, and pitch multiple innings. If he was non-tendered by Milwaukee he would have a new guarantee from another club by the end of the week and probably at 3 million per year or more. There's not really an inefficiency between his projected salary and the cost to replace it.

As for the rookies, like I mentioned above, both Mitchell and Frelick are former college players and first round picks. Mitchell is already 24, had good numbers in AAA and held his own in limited at bats with Milwaukee. Frelick also hit at every level and is going to turn 23 next April. There's no reason to not give them both a shot in the major leagues in '23 especially when it would create "payroll flexibility".

As for Benintendi, batting order is irrelevant. He's a good defender, gets on base better than most Brewers players. I don't see Milwaukee signing two marquee free agents but if they did I think Abreu and Benintendi would be tremendous additions. Yes, the whole reason for adding players like Abreu and perhaps Benintendi is to move away from having several all or nothing sluggers in the lineup (Adames, Renfroe, Tellez, '22 Brewers 2nd in NL in homers but 6th in runs scored) and to raise the overall talent level on the roster.

Again, why would the Brewers sign Benintendi, when A) he would almost certainly cost more than Renfroe who you're non-tendering and B) when they have Frelick who is basically a cheaper, faster version of him. Frelick in RF, as you have it, doesn't work either as his arm is mediocre.

You say Suter can make a spot-start, but he hasn't done so in almost two years. He's the definition of a low-leverage, replacement-level reliever (-0.2 fWAR) who the Brewers could replace internally at a fraction of the $3 million cost. For someone who wants to create payroll flexibility, to the extent that he is determined to non-tender Renfroe, that is completely non-sensical. Moreover, his age and underlying numbers from this past season indicate (4.40 FIP) that he is due to suffer further decline.

As for Vasquez and Caratini, their value was nearly identical by fWAR, with Vasquez just barely edging out Caratini. And their underlying numbers were also virtually identical. Caratini was slightly better at framing per baseball savant, while Vasquez was slightly better per fangraphs. Definitely doesn't justify a $5.0 Mil. difference in their salaries.

Feliciano is not going to be the back-up C. Your back-up catcher actually has to be respectable defensively. Feliciano is nowhere near respectable defensively ATM.

Team Canada · October 18, 2022

Delete the first and last sentence of your post and it still stands. Please stop the condescension.

clancyphile · October 18, 2022

On 10/15/2022 at 9:16 AM, Jopal78 said:

Read more carefully, it’s actually simple letting Renfroe walk (or trading him) allows them to use the money he’d otherwise make in obtaining a better player (the famed “payroll flexibility”) yet without creating a hole somewhere else on the roster.

This is a byproduct of where they find themselves as a club: payroll at or near it’s limit and dead last amongst the teams trying for the playoffs in the NL.

They’re not going to sign someone like Carlos Correra, they’re not going to trade a key piece like Burnes and/or Woodruff and realistically expect to get better in ‘23.

Other than merely running it back again and hoping for better luck, how do they get better next year?

Wong and Renfroe are probably the easiest savings on the roster. There are replacements (Turang and Taylor/Frelick/Wiemer) at AAA, and the combined savings is about $18 million, give or take.

It's a bet on the prospects, but if you want to either extend one or two of Burnes/Woodruff/Adames, that's probably how it happens.

Jopal78 · October 27, 2022

I guess I'm not the only one:

Leibling