2022-2023 Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings and Podcasts

[brewcrewdue80]

On 1/26/2023 at 6:37 PM, wiguy94 said:

Pipeline’s top 100 is out. Brewers have 3 in the top 100.
 

Wiemer at 90.

Frelick at 30.

Chourio at 8. 

Mitchell not being top 100 and ranked behind the Cubs Brennen Davis is absurd. Read his bio. Look at his below 600 OPS over 53 games last season. 23yrs old. Near 30pct K rate. Thos is like ranking Hedbert Perez top 100 because his superb season 2 years ago and ignore the sample of last year's games.  

[bensheeps]

Keith Law with The Athletic with his top 100 seems to really like the Brewers with 5 guys listed

Chourio at 3

Frelick at 41

Quero at 45

Wiemer at 91

Black at 96

https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01/30/top-100-mlb-prospects-2023-keith-law/

[nate82]

2 hours ago, bensheeps said:

Keith Law with The Athletic with his top 100 seems to really like the Brewers with 5 guys listed

Chourio at 3

Frelick at 41

Quero at 45

Wiemer at 91

Black at 96

https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01/30/top-100-mlb-prospects-2023-keith-law/

Surprised to see Black on the list.  Reading Law's take on Wiemer reads a lot like what scouts had to say about Hart though minus the swing and miss issues. 

[sveumrules]

The Quero placement is aggressive but I can squint and see the justification between his age relative to league, strong defensive reputation, promising offensive production in his first full season and then looking good in the AFL to top it off.

Black at 96 I have a harder time seeing. His tool box is pretty much just hit/approach at this point.

Has shown sneaky wheels, but probably won’t be a big SB guy in MLB, has played all over including CF/2B but it’s more out of trying to find a spot than out of being a plus defender, which leaves him as likely a low power LF/1B. To me that reads like Michael Brantley if everything breaks right.

If he’d shown more power, or had a little more defensive certainty I could see the placement, but for now I’d have a hard time ranking him over Turang/Mitchell who have already had success at higher levels while also profiling as plus up the middle defenders.

[CheeseheadInQC]

6 hours ago, bensheeps said:

Keith Law with The Athletic with his top 100 seems to really like the Brewers with 5 guys listed

Chourio at 3

Frelick at 41

Quero at 45

Wiemer at 91

Black at 96

https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01/30/top-100-mlb-prospects-2023-keith-law/

I might be high board on him on this board, but this feels about right for Quero. That is, however, predicated on my untested theory that he is advanced enough in the other areas where he might not experience the typical hitting stagnation other catching prospects do as they work to catch up on the defensive side.

[Jopal78]

On 1/22/2023 at 9:02 PM, MVP2110 said:

It's wild to see how far Ethan Small has fallen. He was killing AAA last year, came up for a cup of coffee and seemed to completely lose it

When someone doesn’t throw hard and lacks pinpoint control; the major leagues can be treacherous waters. 

[Joseph Zarr]

It seems like just last early summer when I (sniffles...grabs tissue) was clamoring for people to start recognizing leaving C Jeferson Quero out of the Top 10 Brewers Prospect Lists was sacrilege. His AFL just solidified what was becoming apparent in his late Mudcats games well before he was raking in Wisconsin: He is a flat out stud. The first Joe Ayrault interview I watched (post-promotion) further cemented my sentiments.

I am so excited to see what Quero shows us in 2023!

[Joseph Zarr]

8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

The Quero placement is aggressive but I can squint and see the justification between his age relative to league, strong defensive reputation, promising offensive production in his first full season and then looking good in the AFL to top it off.

Black at 96 I have a harder time seeing. His tool box is pretty much just hit/approach at this point.

Has shown sneaky wheels, but probably won’t be a big SB guy in MLB, has played all over including CF/2B but it’s more out of trying to find a spot than out of being a plus defender, which leaves him as likely a low power LF/1B. To me that reads like Michael Brantley if everything breaks right.

If he’d shown more power, or had a little more defensive certainty I could see the placement, but for now I’d have a hard time ranking him over Turang/Mitchell who have already had success at higher levels while also profiling as plus up the middle defenders.

I'm a fairly huge Black fan. I put him in the tier with Quero and Logan Henderson in terms of outright tenacity on the diamond - they all have that competitive fire that is hard to put a finger on. I think Black's bat-to-ball skills are elite and his power will come (in off-season interviews he speaks to this: power is next on his list of 'To-Do's' in the Batters Box). I don't know where he'll end up on the diamond defensively, but I think wherever that is it will be fine. Nothing elite there, obviously, but I don't see a net negative result overall. I don't know (and, personally, I don't care) where he's ranked on average in these prospect rankings but I know I am absolutely thrilled to watch him develop. He's a true joy to watch play baseball.

[Jopal78]

23 hours ago, bensheeps said:

Keith Law with The Athletic with his top 100 seems to really like the Brewers with 5 guys listed

Chourio at 3

Frelick at 41

Quero at 45

Wiemer at 91

Black at 96

https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01/30/top-100-mlb-prospects-2023-keith-law/

Garrett Mitchell in his “Ten just missed List”.

Accordingly to Law: durability issues and lack of power likely will limit Mitchell to the role of extra or “soft starter” on a 2nd  rate team.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Garrett Mitchell in his “Ten just missed List”.

Accordingly to Law: durability issues and lack of power likely will limit Mitchell to the role of extra or “soft starter” on a 2nd  rate team.

Interesting considering Black had two injuries himself (one fairly significant) this year in his first full season and has a similar lack of game power with worse raw power grades as well.

For me, Mitchell’s defensive certainty and already reaching MLB gives him a higher floor than Black, who clearly has a superior hit/approach tool but has yet to reach AA.

Have to think Mitchell’s physical advantages (better speed, glove, arm, raw power potential) gives him the higher ceiling to go along with that higher floor.

[Jopal78]

27 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Interesting considering Black had two injuries himself (one fairly significant) this year in his first full season and has a similar lack of game power with worse raw power grades as well.

For me, Mitchell’s defensive certainty and already reaching MLB gives him a higher floor than Black, who clearly has a superior hit/approach tool but has yet to reach AA.

Have to think Mitchell’s physical advantages (better speed, glove, arm, raw power potential) gives him the higher ceiling to go along with that higher floor.

Law explains there were questions about Mitchell's durability going all the way back to high school; which to date have been borne out by the fact he has played in just 160 games total (including his stint with Milwaukee)  in the two full seasons since he was drafted.  

[sveumrules]

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Law explains there were questions about Mitchell's durability going all the way back to high school; which to date have been borne out by the fact he has played in just 160 games total (including his stint with Milwaukee)  in the two full seasons since he was drafted.  

No doubt, the health issues are the primary thing holding back Mitchell’s profile followed by questions about how much he’ll hit.

All I’m saying is seems somewhat disingenuous to then give an aggressive ranking to a guy in the same system who just missed half his first season due to injury.

Sure, Mitchell has a longer documented history of health stuff, scouts have been on this kid for like 8 years at this point going back to HS/college in SoCal. They’ve had much less history with Black as a kid from Aurora, Ontario (prolly never got hurt playing hockey though) who went to Wright State.

If Black puts up a full season at AA/AAA in 2023 while looking playable at CF/2B with something like a 125 wRC+ and his typically excellent BB/K ratios, that’s a no doubt Top 100 guy for me. Add some power to the toolbox and get that SLG higher than the OBP, might even be talking Top 50.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

No doubt, the health issues are the primary thing holding back Mitchell’s profile followed by questions about how much he’ll hit.

All I’m saying is seems somewhat disingenuous to then give an aggressive ranking to a guy in the same system who just missed half his first season due to injury.

Sure, Mitchell has a longer documented history of health stuff, scouts have been on this kid for like 8 years at this point going back to HS/college in SoCal. They’ve had much less history with Black as a kid from Aurora, Ontario (prolly never got hurt playing hockey though) who went to Wright State.

If Black puts up a full season at AA/AAA in 2023 while looking playable at CF/2B with something like a 125 wRC+ and his typically excellent BB/K ratios, that’s a no doubt Top 100 guy for me. Add some power to the toolbox and get that SLG higher than the OBP, might even be talking Top 50.

Then again Frelick’s injuries were broken bones and not the nagging soft tissue types.

[Robocaller]

On 1/30/2023 at 11:53 AM, sveumrules said:

Black at 96 I have a harder time seeing. His tool box is pretty much just hit/approach at this point.

Has shown sneaky wheels, but probably won’t be a big SB guy in MLB, has played all over including CF/2B but it’s more out of trying to find a spot than out of being a plus defender, which leaves him as likely a low power LF/1B. To me that reads like Michael Brantley if everything breaks right.

I didn't read Law's write-up, if any, on Black, but I have to believe he thinks he'll stick at 2B. Brantley has been a very valuable player. 5-time All Star, as high as 3rd in MVP. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

 

[reillymcshane]

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I didn't read Law's write-up, if any, on Black, but I have to believe he thinks he'll stick at 2B. Brantley has been a very valuable player. 5-time All Star, as high as 3rd in MVP. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

 

Law basically thinks Black is going to get on base - a lot. He's an 'on-base machine'. More walks than strikeouts. He knows he has a fringy arm, but he still sees him being a very valuable player due to his on base skills.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

On 1/20/2023 at 5:30 PM, Mass Haas said:

 

This was just about as painful of a read for me as I have ever come across.  Four, by my count, prospect names misspelled.  Couldn’t even bring myself to read the bios after that first impression. Yikes!

[MVP2110]

Keith Law ranks the Brewers as the 8th best farm system in MLB right now. I won't post the full article since it's behind a pay wall but he specifically mentions recent strong drafts & they've done a good job on international signings 

[BallFour]

ESPN came out with their rankings. The Chourio write up was weird, basically saying he is a dart throw. Which is fine a lot of prospects are dart throws but putting a "dart throw" at 11 seems odd unless you didn't want to be incredibly lower on him than everybody else.

11. OF-Jackson Chourio

45. OF-Sal Frelick

72. SS-Brice Turang

[BallFour]

1 hour ago, MVP2110 said:

Keith Law ranks the Brewers as the 8th best farm system in MLB right now. I won't post the full article since it's behind a pay wall but he specifically mentions recent strong drafts & they've done a good job on international signings 

I find interesting that all the NL Central are ranked in the range of 6th to 13th.

[Jake McKibbin]

48 minutes ago, BallFour said:

I find interesting that all the NL Central are ranked in the range of 6th to 13th.

The age of the NL coastlines is over. The time of the NL Central has just begun

[MadThinker88]

A couple of ways to look at this ranking from KLaw.

1)  Its high praise being #8 when the best ranking given to MKE in the last 5 years from Keith was #25 (in 2019).                                  In 2022 he had the system as #26 & he ranked the system dead last in 2020, 2014 & 2011.

2) Its 1 informed opinion among many and until other places list their rankings we cannot be sure if Keith is the high man/ low man/ somewhere in the middle of the group.

IMHO I am surprised by the ranking of 8. I was figuring the system was more likely in the 11-15 range.  As the other sites roll out their rankings we shall see how it all shakes out.

[sveumrules]

11 minutes ago, MadThinker88 said:

A couple of ways to look at this ranking from KLaw.

1)  Its high praise being #8 when the best ranking given to MKE in the last 5 years from Keith was #25 (in 2019).                                  In 2022 he had the system as #26 & he ranked the system dead last in 2020, 2014 & 2011.

2) Its 1 informed opinion among many and until other places list their rankings we cannot be sure if Keith is the high man/ low man/ somewhere in the middle of the group.

IMHO I am surprised by the ranking of 8. I was figuring the system was more likely in the 11-15 range.  As the other sites roll out their rankings we shall see how it all shakes out.

FanGraphs noted in their system overview “With that bump, the system would have ranked 12th at the end of the year, so that’s roughly where it fits across the game, plus or minus a few spots.”

[Mass Haas]

Via "The Baseball Grind" Podcast: "In this episode, Francisco Castro is joined by LHP Nate Peterson, a pitching prospect in the Brewers organization. Milwaukee drafted Nate in the 8th round in 2022! We talk about pitching at Oklahoma State, the football vibes there, transferring to University of Illinois-Chicago, playing for the Savannah Bananas, and much more!"

***

Video will be available via YouTube by next week, this post will be updated to include.

Peterson did not pitch in pro ball in 2022, his stats from last spring at UIC-Chicago are linked above.

[Mass Haas]

2 hours ago, Mass Haas said:

Via "The Baseball Grind" Podcast: "In this episode, Francisco Castro is joined by LHP Nate Peterson, a pitching prospect in the Brewers organization. Milwaukee drafted Nate in the 8th round in 2022! We talk about pitching at Oklahoma State, the football vibes there, transferring to University of Illinois-Chicago, playing for the Savannah Bananas, and much more!"

***

Video will be available via YouTube by next week, this post will be updated to include.

Peterson did not pitch in pro ball in 2022, his stats from last spring at UIC-Chicago are linked above.

No mention of any injury concerns, Peterson looking forward to spring training.

Enjoy the entire chat, but it's not until the 37:00 minute mark that the talk of draft day and time with the Brewers begins. Don't panic at the 45-second dead spot near the 40:00 minute mark, they recover nicely.

[Mass Haas]

Podcast via Baseball America: Kyle Glaser and Ben Badler break down the Brewers farm system, including Jackson Chourio's lofty potential, if Robert Gasser is their next pitching success story and why the Brewers system aligns perfectly with their big-league needs.