Smichaelis9’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[Smichaelis9]

Non Tendered:

Brent Suter, Luis Perdomo, Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave, Adrian Houser

Trades

Trade #1:

Milwaukee Trades: Ethan Small, Eduardo Garcia, Jace Avina, Israel Puello

Toronto Trades: Danny Jansen

Brewers receive their starting catcher the next two years and the Jays get a mix of solid prospects. They may ask for a Tyler Black instead of a Garcia or something like that. I'm not sure this gets it done. But I think it keeps the Jays interested.

Trade #2

Milwaukee Trades: Keston Hiura, Zavier Warren

Kansas City Trades: Dylan Coleman

Brewers receive a cost controlled reliever who has done quite well in the majors, and has good underlying data on Statcast. Royals receive a couple first base or DH only players with pretty interesting bats.

Trade #3

Milwaukee Trades: Rowdy Tellez

Minnesota Trades: Caleb Thielbar 

Brewers acquire a lefty reliever that's gotten very good results and the Twins get a bat that can sort of take over the Miguel Sano spot that will likely be opening up. Partially just making this trade to get to the budget... I don't think I'd make this if I wasn't trying to get closer to the budget.

Free Agent Signings

Signing #1

Jose Abreu (2 Years, $28 million total)

Brewers get their 4 hitter and starting first baseman, where he's a big upgrade defensively over Rowdy. Going with $12 mil the first year and $16 mil the second, because Wong will be off the books after 2023 (also to cheat and help me get closer to meeting the budget ?)

Final Roster:

• Catcher: Danny Jansen ($3.7M)
• 1B: Jose Abreu ($12.00M)
• 2B: Kolten Wong ($10.00M)
• 3B: Luis Urias ($4.30M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M)
• LF: Sal Frelick (0.70M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• 4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($0.71M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.20M)
• Utility: Esteury Ruiz ($0.7M)
• Backup Catcher: Victor Caratini ($2.80M)
• SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.40M)
• SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.74M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)
• RP: Dylan Coleman ($0.7M)
• RP: Peter Strzelecki ($0.7M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)
• RP: Devin Williams ($3.2M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.7M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($0.7M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.40M)

Payroll is 1.85% over budget but feels reasonable, So I will not be making more moves to get below ?

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Smichaelis9 said:

Non Tendered:

 

Brent Suter, Luis Perdomo, Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave, Adrian Houser

Trades

Trade #1:

Milwaukee Trades: Ethan Small, Eduardo Garcia, Jace Avina, Israel Puello

Toronto Trades: Danny Jansen

Trade #2

Milwaukee Trades: Keston Hiura, Zavier Warren

Kansas City Trades: Dylan Coleman

Brewers receive a cost controlled reliever who has done quite well in the majors, and has good underlying data on Statcast. Royals receive a couple first base or DH only players with pretty interesting bats

Free Agent Signings

Signing #1

Jose Abreu (2 Years, $28 million total)

• ? Danny Jansen ($3.7M)
• 1B: Jose Abreu ($14.00M)
• 2B: Kolten Wong ($10.00M)
• 3B: Luis Urias ($4.30M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M)
• 4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($0.71M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.20M)
• Utility: Esteury Ruiz ($0.7M)
• Backup ? Victor Caratini ($2.80M)
• SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.40M)
• SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.74M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)
• RP: Dylan Coleman ($0.7M)
• RP: Peter Strzelecki ($0.7M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)
• RP: Devin Williams ($3.2M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.7M)

Payroll is 0.65% over budget

Good stuff and in line with what I'm thinking. I would probably decline the option on Wong though and use that $10 million to go after a reliever and/or starting pitching depth. Turang is ready. 

However, a trade for Danny Jansen will likely require more prospect capital than what you're currently giving TOR. A Wiemer/Mitchell/Turang would probably have to headline the deal. 

[Smichaelis9]

16 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Good stuff and in line with what I'm thinking. I would probably decline the option on Wong though and use that $10 million to go after a reliever and/or starting pitching depth. Turang is ready. 

However, a trade for Danny Jansen will likely require more prospect capital than what you're currently giving TOR. A Wiemer/Mitchell/Turang would probably have to headline the deal. 

I edited the whole thing some, as I hit enter before I meant to lol. I think this offer at least keeps them on the phone but they do likely want more. It likely depends on how they view Avina honestly. Some organizations are likely salivating over his hard hit data. But others are likely pretty weary of his K rate. Some probably are in both camps lol. Tyler Black could be subbed in for Garcia too. If it came down to it though, I would probably include one of the three you mentioned. 

[wibadgers23]

Are the prices just that high on catchers?  Jansen's offensive stats are nothing to write home about so he must be unbelievable defensively? 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Are the prices just that high on catchers?  Jansen's offensive stats are nothing to write home about so he must be unbelievable defensively? 

His offensive stats are nothing to write home about??? His 140 WRC+ led all MLB catchers with at least 200 plate appearances...

[bensheeps]

I like the idea of trying to get Jansen.  Would Houser get it done?  (similar salary, same years available)

Toronto may want something to add to the major league team as opposed to minor league guys.

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

I like the idea of trying to get Jansen.  Would Houser get it done?  (similar salary, same years available)

Toronto may want something to add to the major league team as opposed to minor league guys.

Houser doesn't get you even close. It's going to require one of our top AAA prospects to headline the deal imo. 

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Houser doesn't get you even close. It's going to require one of our top AAA prospects to headline the deal imo. 

I really doubt that. Omar Narvaez took our #24 prospect and a comp pick. Narvaez was just as good (in actual start PAs) and honestly a better track record.

Jansen has an eye popping statline...but that was in only 200 ABs. That simply won't commany a top prospect. 

Irrelevant though. Great target if he was on a crummy team. However, he went to the postseason. Why on earth would the Jays trade him? I get he is the #2 guy...but I just don't see much motivation.

[Outlander]

That is where the top prospect comes into play. There isn't a lot of motivation to trade except he will be getting paid about $4 million to be a backup. If the Blue Jays are not offered something good there is no need for them to trade him. Also no comparison defensively between Jansen and Narvaez when he was a Mariner.

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I really doubt that. Omar Narvaez took our #24 prospect and a comp pick. Narvaez was just as good (in actual start PAs) and honestly a better track record.

Jansen has an eye popping statline...but that was in only 200 ABs. That simply won't commany a top prospect. 

Irrelevant though. Great target if he was on a crummy team. However, he went to the postseason. Why on earth would the Jays trade him? I get he is the #2 guy...but I just don't see much motivation.

Jays have Kirk who was an All Star and Moreno who was a Top Ten overall prospect entering the season before putting up a 120 wRC+ at AAA and a 113 wRC+ in MLB during his age 22 season. Jansen is expendable depth for the Jays.

Prior to being acquired by the Brewers, Omar posted a 113 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over 1,216 PAs. The main thing holding back his value was his defense at -41 DRS and -22.3 FRM. Kinda crazy how his profile flipped with the Brewers, 85 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over 867 PAs with +6 DRS and +20 FRM.

Jansen is at 98 wRC+ and 6.6 WAR in 1,079 career PAs. While he hasn't hit as well as Omar for his career, he is at 124 wRC+ over his last two seasons/453 PAs and he hasn't been a butcher behind the plate with +10 DRS and +9.2 FRM career. 

I'd think Jansen's trade value is higher now than Omar's was when we acquired him.

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I really doubt that. Omar Narvaez took our #24 prospect and a comp pick. Narvaez was just as good (in actual start PAs) and honestly a better track record.

Jansen has an eye popping statline...but that was in only 200 ABs. That simply won't commany a top prospect. 

Irrelevant though. Great target if he was on a crummy team. However, he went to the postseason. Why on earth would the Jays trade him? I get he is the #2 guy...but I just don't see much motivation.

The Jays have three starting to elite caliber catchers. They are going to be severely hard pressed to go into next season with all of them on their roster. Thus, they will have to trade one of them, and Jansen is the most likely candidate as he has the least amount of club control

Also, you should look at this site, which provides you with a rough estimate of a player's trade value. It is known to be used by major league executives in at least some capacity. You will notice that Jansen has median value of 17.8. In comparison, Houser's median value is 6.1., or less than half of Jansen's. Even a prospect like Joey Wiemer doesn't get you all the way there on his own. So, yes, while it wouldn't cost a Chourio or a Frelick, it will definitely cost one of our upper-tier prospects to acquire Jansen. 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Jays have Kirk who was an All Star and Moreno who was a Top Ten overall prospect entering the season before putting up a 120 wRC+ at AAA and a 113 wRC+ in MLB during his age 22 season. Jansen is expendable depth for the Jays.

Prior to being acquired by the Brewers, Omar posted a 113 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over 1,216 PAs. The main thing holding back his value was his defense at -41 DRS and -22.3 FRM. Kinda crazy how his profile flipped with the Brewers, 85 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over 867 PAs with +6 DRS and +20 FRM.

Jansen is at 98 wRC+ and 6.6 WAR in 1,079 career PAs. While he hasn't hit as well as Omar for his career, he is at 124 wRC+ over his last two seasons/453 PAs and he hasn't been a butcher behind the plate with +10 DRS and +9.2 FRM career. 

I'd think Jansen's trade value is higher now than Omar's was when we acquired him.

I’d argue they could be more likely to trade their All Star catcher or their top prospect…if they were to trade anyone. Especially since Kirk isn’t even arby eligible. Really aren’t helping a top catching prospect forcing him to be a back up…and he has no clear path to starting as is even in that situation. Either be happy you have a star catcher pre arby already or trade him for a cargo ship return and take your chances in the young guy. Really…they should just go with Kirk and trade away the prospect. Imo 

He may be worth more than Narvaez, but at face value it isn’t that huge of a difference…and a far cry from commanding a Top 5 or so prospect.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I’d argue they could be more likely to trade their All Star catcher or their top prospect…if they were to trade anyone. Especially since Kirk isn’t even arby eligible. Really aren’t helping a top catching prospect forcing him to be a back up…and he has no clear path to starting as is even in that situation. Either be happy you have a star catcher pre arby already or trade him for a cargo ship return and take your chances in the young guy. Really…they should just go with Kirk and trade away the prospect. Imo 

He may be worth more than Narvaez, but at face value it isn’t that huge of a difference…and a far cry from commanding a Top 5 or so prospect.

This ignores the fact that Kirk is regularly featured at DH, which, if they traded Jansen, would make Moreno the starter. You trade the guy with the least amount of team control, which is Jansen. 

[Hopper]

Plug Jansen into any trade generator you want, what you are proposing we trade for him, with only two years of control is crazy whacked out insanity.  If that is what it takes, I'm not even making a phone call.