clancyphile’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[clancyphile]

Burnes signed to 8-year, $200 million deal with $60 million deferred (paid out over 20 years) - went full Bobby Bonilla.

Woodruff signed to 6-year, $90 million deal.

Willy Adames signed to 5-year, $67.5 million deal.

Hunter Renfroe to Seattle for UT Bryant Mendez, OF Jonatan Clase, 2B Hogan Windish.

• C: Victor Caratini ($2.80M)
• 1B: Rowdy Tellez ($5.50M)
• 2B: Brice Turang ($0.70M)
• 3B: Luis Urias ($4.50M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($13.5M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)
• RF: Tyrone Taylor ($2.00M)
• DH: Keston Hiura ($2.00M)
• 4th OF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
• Utility: Jace Peterson ($2.5M)
• Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)
• SP1: Corbin Burnes ($17.50M)
• SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($15.00M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.00M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.00M)
• RP: Brent Suter ($2.5M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.2M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Ethan Small ($0.70M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M)
• RP: Devin Williams ($4.00M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($0.70M)
• RP: Jason Alexander ($0.70M)

Payroll is 8.15% under budget

[jay87shot]

So we have basically the same team? Also I would guess that Woody and Adames would both be close or over 20 a year, especially any non-arby years.

[Hopper]

Not a chance in hell you get Woodruff for 6 years 90 million, not a single possible chance of that happening. 15 million per season?  Try 25 million, and that may still not get it done.

[UpandIn]

9 hours ago, Hopper said:

Not a chance in hell you get Woodruff for 6 years 90 million, not a single possible chance of that happening. 15 million per season?  Try 25 million, and that may still not get it done.

25 would almost certainly get it done I'd think...but it's just so hard to track this sometimes. Castillo is a good Woodruff comp and he's obviously using that. Castillo signed a very team friendly deal though.  

The Bonilla trade was made so the Mets could go out and get another player. They failed to trade for Griffey Jr, then traded for Mike Hampton and won the NL, got David Wright as their comp pick and they ended up making out well. 

Bonilla end's up coming out on top as he turns ~5.8M into 30M. We don't add anyone in this trade and it seems entirely unrealistic. 

The Brewers should aim for a balance between the A's/Rays and Braves/Cards-That was not intended to rhyme.

But lock up young talent early if possible, if not, you DO have to trade most of it. I can see one extension...and I don't see why Adames would sign for 5 years 67.5, but...it's not totally insulting. I'd offer 5/125 and then 5/110 for Burnes and Woodruff and maybe player options for 30M with 5M buyouts. I really don't know what each player is thinking, and I've been pretty vocal about wanting to retain at least one of the two pitchers. Both and Adames is...a little fantastical. Though, somehow still more likely than moving a 35 year old Braun to SS or Frelick now to SS. 

 

[clancyphile]

On 10/13/2022 at 1:45 AM, UpandIn said:

25 would almost certainly get it done I'd think...but it's just so hard to track this sometimes. Castillo is a good Woodruff comp and he's obviously using that. Castillo signed a very team friendly deal though.  

The Bonilla trade was made so the Mets could go out and get another player. They failed to trade for Griffey Jr, then traded for Mike Hampton and won the NL, got David Wright as their comp pick and they ended up making out well. 

Bonilla end's up coming out on top as he turns ~5.8M into 30M. We don't add anyone in this trade and it seems entirely unrealistic. 

The Brewers should aim for a balance between the A's/Rays and Braves/Cards-That was not intended to rhyme.

But lock up young talent early if possible, if not, you DO have to trade most of it. I can see one extension...and I don't see why Adames would sign for 5 years 67.5, but...it's not totally insulting. I'd offer 5/125 and then 5/110 for Burnes and Woodruff and maybe player options for 30M with 5M buyouts. I really don't know what each player is thinking, and I've been pretty vocal about wanting to retain at least one of the two pitchers. Both and Adames is...a little fantastical. Though, somehow still more likely than moving a 35 year old Braun to SS or Frelick now to SS. 

 

The three players in the Renfroe deal are A-ball position players, all pretty young. 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, clancyphile said:

The three players in the Renfroe deal are A-ball position players, all pretty young. 

I don't understand what point you're making. I didn't say anything about Renfroe and you're getting...very little back from Seattle other than...lottery tickets. That's fine if you have a replacement, but you don't have one that's ready. 

[clancyphile]

21 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don't understand what point you're making. I didn't say anything about Renfroe and you're getting...very little back from Seattle other than...lottery tickets. That's fine if you have a replacement, but you don't have one that's ready. 

Taylor in RF short-term, Wiemer probably by the end of 2023.

[UpandIn]

On 10/15/2022 at 1:01 PM, clancyphile said:

Taylor in RF short-term, Wiemer probably by the end of 2023.

I didn't mean you literally did not have someone to play in RF. I meant a replacement as in...someone who WASN'T a dramatic drop off in ability. 

.233/.286/.442 .729 OPS
.255/.315/.492 .807 OPS

Upside; Taylor's splits are fairly even.
Downside; Taylor's splits are fairly even.

We couldn't score runs. Solution...get rid of our best hitter, our best RHed bat, get rid of our 2nd best hitter(which makes some sense, but probably wise to pay 8M for the 2B with 3.2 WAR as I don't think it'd be hard to trade him). 

 

But we're bringing back all 3 of the players who both cost a great deal of money(most likely far more than you're proposing) and...we rid of the two best hitters. What exactly is the point in this? 

And...once again, the Mets bought out Bonilla so they could go out and sign Mike Hampton who was coming off a 22-4, 2.90 ERA, 6.7 WAR season in which he was Cy Young runner up. 

Why would we do the stupid half of the Mets deferred money...but not the smart half?

Now, if Wiemer can buck traditional trends and he can come up and hit MLB caliber pitching right out of the gate...then this wild gamble STILL wouldn't pay off as we need to find a way to hit LFers better. So how about you keep the guy who gives you an ~.800 OPS each year and ~30 HRs and HOPE the guy in AAA can come up and perform and make your team better rather than get rid of another player who hit well this year and count on a rookie(another rookie who's struggled to adjust when initially jumping leagues)?