Projected Arbitration Salaries 2023

[Roderick]

I'll take the over on Renfroe arby at $11M, and would still plan on keeping him.

I am leaning more towards Frelick and Mitchell starting next year, so I am more apt to keep Renfroe and DH Yelich (while training him at 1B).   But, if you pool Tellez and Renfroe arby amounts, can you come up with a better hitter at 1B/3B for their combined arby of $16-17M?  Then use Hiura/Brouseau at 1B and Yelich/Taylor in OF.

I don't see keeping Suter at that price.  

[SF70]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

On a team desperate for offense, you want to jettison our only hitter who had an OPS over .800? A trade of Renfroe would mean starting Taylor or an all-rookie OF. Taylor, while a superb 4th outfielder, isn't quite on Renfroe's level and is best used as a supplemental option rather than an everyday option as we saw this year. As for the rookies, it is a big leap to assume that they will be able to immediately replicate Renfroe's 2.7 WAR from this year. That just isn't a risk a contending ball-club like the Brewers can afford to take. Overall, getting rid of Renfroe, our best hitter from this year, would be crippling to the offense without any significant outside additions. He is well worth the $11M price tag. 

Also, the possibility of Burnes being traded this offseason remains relatively remote. A 10-15% chance, imo. 

The time to trade Burnes is this offseason because the trade haul received would be vastly superior to what we would get next offseason.

A team like the Dodgers would have a huge desire to bring Burnes “home” and extend, giving us our Burnes “replacement”, Bobby Miller, plus a positional stud like Vargas or Cartaya plus.

That trade this offseason makes perfect sense for both teams. 

We have 4 AAA OF’s ready to start their  final and most difficult stage of development, facing big-league pitching, and Renfroe blocks this from happening. 

They have 6 OF’s for 3 spots if and when Renfroe is traded. Yelich & TT can man LF and RF respectively until the possible service-time considerations are over. 
 

Next season OF will be the deepest part of the team. The $11M saved can improve other area of the team

[damuelle]

Renfroe 2023 RF. Wiemer 2024 RF. We’re not really grooming anyone else to play RF from the innings logs, though Mitchell could kick over to RF if necessary.

Gotta keep Renfroe in 2023 or else our only power hitters are Tellez and Adames. We can’t expect a power surge from Taylor, Yelich or any of the young guys coming up in 2023.

I guess we’ll run the bullpen back with Williams, Suter, Bush, Milner and Gott, move on from Perdomo and Gustave, decline Boxberger’s option, add a high-leverage LHP, then see what Strzelecki, Cousins and Topa are able to produce.

We have to move on from Hiura one way or another. You don’t burn a guy’s third and final option when he’s in the midst of a reasonably productive stretch, as we did. It’s an unhealthy situation, from my admittedly ignorant perspective.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

The time to trade Burnes is this offseason because the trade haul received would be vastly superior to what we would get next offseason.

A team like the Dodgers would have a huge desire to bring Burnes “home” and extend, giving us our Burnes “replacement”, Bobby Miller, plus a positional stud like Vargas or Cartaya plus.

That trade this offseason makes perfect sense for both teams. 

We have 4 AAA OF’s ready to start their  final and most difficult stage of development, facing big-league pitching, and Renfroe blocks this from happening. 

They have 6 OF’s for 3 spots if and when Renfroe is traded. Yelich & TT can man LF and RF respectively until the possible service-time considerations are over. 
 

Next season OF will be the deepest part of the team. The $11M saved can improve other area of the team

You're speaking in terms of what you WANT to see. I'm speaking in terms of what we're LIKELY to see. In his press conference today, Stearns said they're planning on bringing back the "core" and going for the playoffs again. Burnes, along with Woodruff, are the centerpiece of that core, and trading any one of them is likely to severely diminish our playoff chances. Also, he talked about how he learned from the Hader trade how major roster shakeups can hamper team chemistry.  All of which tells me that Burnes is highly unlikely to be traded this offseason, despite the massive haul we could get for him. More likely, he'll be traded next offseason if/when efforts to extend him have failed, and we'll still get a heck of a lot for him. 

Same thing with Renfroe. A contending team cannot afford to trade him and rely mostly on rookies to step into his shoes, especially considering Renfroe was the best hitter on an otherwise offensive-starved team this year. If they trade Burnes AND Renfroe, as you want them to do, then they're essentially punting on next season, which would conflict with their stated desire to seriously contend. 

Also, Renfroe is not "standing in the way" of the AAA outfielders being able to develop in the majors. If anyone was standing in their way, it was McCutchen, and he'll be gone next season. Meanwhile, Mitchell has already started his development and was a fixture in the lineup at the end of the season. Frelick is likely to see major playing time starting early next season (if not by opening day) as one of the other featured outfielders, with Yelich seeing increased time at DH. As for Ruiz and Wiemer, they'll likely start next season in AAA as they're not quite ready. And even then, Ruiz is probably best used in a utility role. They also could be traded to upgrade other areas of the roster, like for a Danny Jansen. Bottom line is Renfroe provides much needed offensive assurance for a contending ballclub, and his production warrants the $11 mil. salary. 

[SF70]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You're speaking in terms of what you WANT to see. I'm speaking in terms of what we're LIKELY to see. In his press conference today, Stearns said they're planning on bringing back the "core" and going for the playoffs again. Burnes, along with Woodruff, are the centerpiece of that core, and trading any one of them is likely to severely diminish our playoff chances. Also, he talked about how he learned from the Hader trade how major roster shakeups can hamper team chemistry.  All of which tells me that Burnes is highly unlikely to be traded this offseason, despite the massive haul we could get for him. More likely, he'll be traded next offseason if/when efforts to extend him have failed, and we'll still get a heck of a lot for him. 

Same thing with Renfroe. A contending team cannot afford to trade him and rely mostly on rookies to step into his shoes, especially considering Renfroe was the best hitter on an otherwise offensive-starved team this year. If they trade Burnes AND Renfroe, as you want them to do, then they're essentially punting on next season, which would conflict with their stated desire to seriously contend. 

Also, Renfroe is not "standing in the way" of the AAA outfielders being able to develop in the majors. If anyone was standing in their way, it was McCutchen, and he'll be gone next season. Meanwhile, Mitchell has already started his development and was a fixture in the lineup at the end of the season. Frelick is likely to see major playing time starting early next season (if not by opening day) as one of the other featured outfielders, with Yelich seeing increased time at DH. As for Ruiz and Wiemer, they'll likely start next season in AAA as they're not quite ready. And even then, Ruiz is probably best used in a utility role. They also could be traded to upgrade other areas of the roster, like for a Danny Jansen. Bottom line is Renfroe provides much needed offensive assurance for a contending ballclub, and his production warrants the $11 mil. salary. 

You very well could be right about Burnes not being traded this offseason, but trading him next offseason severely limits the return because a team like the Dodgers will have a more difficult time extending him with only 1 year til FA.

Burnes at $18M for 1 year probably has 30-35% of the trade-value of Burnes at  2 years, starting at $11M.

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on Renfroe.

[nate82]

5 hours ago, Roderick said:

 But, if you pool Tellez and Renfroe arby amounts, can you come up with a better hitter at 1B/3B for their combined arby of $16-17M?  Then use Hiura/Brouseau at 1B and Yelich/Taylor in OF.

If you mean at both positions at 1B/3B then no that amount is not enough even if you do FA + Hiura/Brosseau at 1B and Yelich/Taylor in the OF.  Adding those up you will have about $12m to get a FA at 3B which won't get you much if anything at all.  

FA's without a buyout or an opt out at 3B are the following:

Matt Carpenter    
Jace Peterson
Charlie Culberson
Matt Duffy
Marwin Gonzalez    
Brandon Drury
Cheslor Cuthbert
Rob Segedin

Who on that list is better than Renfroe and are you willing to give them $10+m a season for the next 3-5 years?

The only 3B FA that would be a massive improvement over Renfroe would be Arenado but the savings would be about $20m short.  Arenado should get a 4-6 year deal around $30-35m annually.  

At 1B it doesn't really improve all that much either.  Here are all the FA 1B without a buyout or an opt out:

Brandon Belt
Jose Abreu
Josh Bell
Carlos Santana
Yulieski Gurriel
Greg Bird
Jesus Aguilar
Mike Ford
Tomas Telis
Chris Marrero

Are any of these worth $10+m a season for the next 3-5 years?  To be honest I am not sure any of them would be better than Renfroe in 2023.  Maybe Abreu but he is getting old and should be a DH only.  Bell might be about even but Belt yuck and Santana no thanks he looks like he is done.  Another option is Sano while he will still be young I don't think he is much of an improvement over Tellez and at best he would be equal to Tellez. 

Not really seeing anything the Brewers should be spending anything on in FA other than a bullpen piece or two.  

[Roderick]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

If you mean at both positions at 1B/3B then no that amount is not enough even if you do FA + Hiura/Brosseau at 1B and Yelich/Taylor in the OF.  Adding those up you will have about $12m to get a FA at 3B which won't get you much if anything at all.  

FA's without a buyout or an opt out at 3B are the following:

Matt Carpenter    
Jace Peterson
Charlie Culberson
Matt Duffy
Marwin Gonzalez    
Brandon Drury
Cheslor Cuthbert
Rob Segedin

Who on that list is better than Renfroe and are you willing to give them $10+m a season for the next 3-5 years?

The only 3B FA that would be a massive improvement over Renfroe would be Arenado but the savings would be about $20m short.  Arenado should get a 4-6 year deal around $30-35m annually.  

At 1B it doesn't really improve all that much either.  Here are all the FA 1B without a buyout or an opt out:

Brandon Belt
Jose Abreu
Josh Bell
Carlos Santana
Yulieski Gurriel
Greg Bird
Jesus Aguilar
Mike Ford
Tomas Telis
Chris Marrero

Are any of these worth $10+m a season for the next 3-5 years?  To be honest I am not sure any of them would be better than Renfroe in 2023.  Maybe Abreu but he is getting old and should be a DH only.  Bell might be about even but Belt yuck and Santana no thanks he looks like he is done.  Another option is Sano while he will still be young I don't think he is much of an improvement over Tellez and at best he would be equal to Tellez. 

Not really seeing anything the Brewers should be spending anything on in FA other than a bullpen piece or two.  

No I meant get one better hitter at either 1B or 3B.  If we trade away Renfroe and Tellez and save on their arby pay, can we get a FA or trade for a player that is in the $16-17M range that is a better hitter than either Renfroe/Tellez.  Then use the rest of our parts to replace Renfroe/Tellez.  I don't follow the rest of the league that closely to know what is available.  So sounds like keep Renfroe/Tellez is the best offensive option. 

So run it back with Mitchell/Frelick, no Cutch, and hope the pitchers and Urias are closer to 2021 than 2022 in performance.     

[MrTPlush]

15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Stearns said they're planning on bringing back the "core" and going for the playoffs again. Burnes, along with Woodruff, are the centerpiece of that core, and trading any one of them is likely to severely diminish our playoff chances. Also, he talked about how he learned from the Hader trade how major roster shakeups can hamper team chemistry. 

1) To be fair, the first step in trading one of our core players is acting like we don't want to trade them.

2) Trading a guy in the off season will have less effect on team chemistry versus the deadline. Guys have all offseason to get over it. That wasn't the case in July. 

I doubt they trade one of them...but it is impossible to really know. Any rumblings likely wouldn't happen till failed extension talks warm up the rumor mill.

[Jopal78]

12 hours ago, nate82 said:

If you mean at both positions at 1B/3B then no that amount is not enough even if you do FA + Hiura/Brosseau at 1B and Yelich/Taylor in the OF.  Adding those up you will have about $12m to get a FA at 3B which won't get you much if anything at all.  

FA's without a buyout or an opt out at 3B are the following:

Matt Carpenter    
Jace Peterson
Charlie Culberson
Matt Duffy
Marwin Gonzalez    
Brandon Drury
Cheslor Cuthbert
Rob Segedin

Who on that list is better than Renfroe and are you willing to give them $10+m a season for the next 3-5 years?

The only 3B FA that would be a massive improvement over Renfroe would be Arenado but the savings would be about $20m short.  Arenado should get a 4-6 year deal around $30-35m annually.  

At 1B it doesn't really improve all that much either.  Here are all the FA 1B without a buyout or an opt out:

Brandon Belt
Jose Abreu
Josh Bell
Carlos Santana
Yulieski Gurriel
Greg Bird
Jesus Aguilar
Mike Ford
Tomas Telis
Chris Marrero

Are any of these worth $10+m a season for the next 3-5 years?  To be honest I am not sure any of them would be better than Renfroe in 2023.  Maybe Abreu but he is getting old and should be a DH only.  Bell might be about even but Belt yuck and Santana no thanks he looks like he is done.  Another option is Sano while he will still be young I don't think he is much of an improvement over Tellez and at best he would be equal to Tellez. 

Not really seeing anything the Brewers should be spending anything on in FA other than a bullpen piece or two.  

I don't know, Jose Abreu even at 35 is a better hitter than Renfroe is. Therefore,  it is nearly a given that Jose Abreu + whomever would play RF (Frelick, Mitchell, etc.) would be > Hunter Renfroe alone. 

One way the Brewers can almost certainly improve their team is by moving on from Renfroe (where they have tremendous organizational depth) and using his salary as the main component to land Abreu for 1B/DH where they have a need. (That is of course, if they do not have the resources to sign Abreu outright). 

[MrTPlush]

11 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't know, Jose Abreu even at 35 is a better hitter than Renfroe is. Therefore,  it is nearly a given that Jose Abreu + whomever would play RF (Frelick, Mitchell, etc.) would be > Hunter Renfroe alone. 

One way the Brewers can almost certainly improve their team is by moving on from Renfroe (where they have tremendous organizational depth) and using his salary as the main component to land Abreu for 1B/DH where they have a need. (That is of course, if they do not have the resources to sign Abreu outright). 

At 35 he is, but what about 36? 37? maybe even 38? 

Renfroe is 31 and a one year deal. Him performing is a pretty darn safe bet. Abreu is old...really old. He won't be cheap and won't be had on a 1 year deal. It will take at least two and there is a fair chance it could take 3 years. Abreu maybe have one good year left in him before tanking production wise. We may not even get one passable year. 

31 year old Renfroe = $11mil commitment

36+ year old Abreu = $35mil+ commitment

Not saying it is right or wrong to go that route...but the financials aren't even close.

[Jopal78]

12 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

At 35 he is, but what about 36? 37? maybe even 38? 

Renfroe is 31 and a one year deal. Him performing is a pretty darn safe bet. Abreu is old...really old. He won't be cheap and won't be had on a 1 year deal. It will take at least two and there is a fair chance it could take 3 years. Abreu maybe have one good year left in him before tanking production wise. We may not even get one passable year. 

31 year old Renfroe = $11mil commitment

36+ year old Abreu = $35mil+ commitment

Not saying it is right or wrong to go that route...but the financials aren't even close.

Abreu is getting older, but he did have a .378 OBP this past season, and his exit velocity and hard hit rate remained at his career norms. I think its a safe bet he would be the better hitter than Renfroe in '23 (not to mention moving away from the all or nothing approach that too many of the Brewers hitters had last year). 

As for long term, the dream is over one way or the other after '24. So if, like Lorenzo Cain in '18,  Abreu still delivered in '23 when it mattered, I could be okay with the possibility diminished returns thereafter especially since they'll most likely be retooling by the deadline in '24 anyways (IMO they will never let Burnes and Woodruff walk away for nothing). 

[monty57]

3 hours ago, Roderick said:

So run it back with Mitchell/Frelick, no Cutch, and hope the pitchers and Urias are closer to 2021 than 2022 in performance.     

Urias had a 112 wRC+ and 2.1 Fangraphs WAR in 570 PA in 2021. He had a 110 wRC+ and 2.3 Fangraphs WAR in 472 PA in 2022. 

He had some defensive issues early in the year, got a bad rap and was basically set aside for Peterson (96 wRC+ and 2.2 Fangraphs WAR in 328 PA in 2021) at the end of the season.

Urias is probably best used at second base, as his arm isn't suited for the left side of the infield, but offensively he's remained an above average bat even though I think he swings for the fences too much.

As to the rest of what I quoted, I agree that Mitchell and Frelick should both be on the opening day roster, and I believe that a mix of Yelich, Renfroe, Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor will outproduce the 2022 mix of OF/DH. 

Pitching-wise, I think health is key. We had a lot of injuries to the staff in 2022, so hopefully better health and what should be better defense (Frelick over Yelich, Turang over Wong) should lead to better "run prevention."

 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

There are two lines of thought when speaking about arbitration players.  Keep the players or don't keep them.  The best answer to that line of thinking is to have an honest conversation about whether the team as constructed can make it to the playoffs, let alone win in the playoffs.  As we have seen the last 3 years the team can make the playoffs with this group.  But they can't win in the playoffs.  So now the question becomes what do the Milwaukee Brewers want?  A playoff loser or roll the dice on a new direction and put your trust in a GM to correctly evaluate new players.  

 

Personally, I don't care which way the Brewers go but there better be 100% commitment either way.  No band aids.  If you are going to penny pinch on Renfroe I got news for you, he is not the reason why the Brewers will win next year same with Adames, Wong, Burnes, or Woodruff.  162 games eliminates the importance of the individual and puts the onus on team construction.  None of these decisions should be made in a vacuum.  The GM needs a well thought out plan and if that takes a while fine.  After the trade deadline moves that eliminated the Brewers from the playoffs I have little confidence in this GM's ability to stick to a plan.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

[wntrtxn21]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I also do not trust the manager with his use of the bullpen the last three years.  The relievers this year are making too many mental mistakes with pitch location which I regard as being tired and over used.  The Brewers have thoroughbreds for starters.  The manager needs to lean on this strength of the team.  This 4 and 5 inning outing nonsense is taxing the bullpen and the last 60 days of the season Brewers fans saw how detrimental mismanagement of a bullpen can be to this team.  Gone are the days where Milwaukee can constantly call up and send down relievers.  If Counsell fails in his bullpen management again there should be some turmoil in the FO.  Lots of areas of improvement for Sterns and Counsell.  I expect both to be much more disciplined next year.

I think you are being way too simplistic about the pen usage. There were numerous games where the starters had over 100 pitches in the 5th inning. Or the starter was getting shelled badly early in the game. Plus you forget all the starters (thoroughbreds) missed significant time except Burnes and he had high pitch counts a lot. Alexander started 11 games, Small 2, Houser started 9 games where he had 75-100 pitches in the 4th inning. A lack of talent in the pen also led to Council using relievers more than he should have. Nobody says his decisions were always great, but many things contributed to the pens' failures. To say Council doesn't know the strength of the team is simply wrong. 

[UpandIn]

On 10/11/2022 at 7:53 AM, torts said:

I dont know who we could get for RF for less than $11 on the market (unless you want to trot out rookies in CF/RF to start the season).  here are the free agents... who is going to sign for 1 year (besides Our Lort and Savior Judge, obvi)?  no one, they're almost all going to ask for multi-year deals, which further strings us along.  Keeping Renfroe for $11 million for one more season isnt going to blow up the budget.  

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/2022-23-mlb-free-agents.html

Right Fielders

Albert Almora (29)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (33)
Kole Calhoun (35) – $5.5MM club option
Joey Gallo (29)
Ben Gamel (31)
Robbie Grossman (33)
Mitch Haniger (32)
Aaron Judge (31)
Nomar Mazara (28)
Andrew McCutchen (36)
Wil Myers (32) – $20MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Tyler Naquin (32)
Chad Pinder (31)
Stephen Piscotty (32)

Mitch Haniger would be a good player to sign...in a normal year. A guy that can give you .253/.318/.485 type line as he did in 2021. I'm guessing that'd cost you either 3/36 type deal or a 1 year deal for ~10M with an option for ~15M with at least a 3M buyout. 

And I bet people would be THRILLED with that. Yet we've got .255/.315/.492 coming back and people are like, "nah, pass." 

Now, in fairness, Haniger is a better defender...but he's also more injury prone, more up and down and I'm going back a year to get that slash line that's inferior to Renfroe's from last year(and Renfroe's was better in 2021). 

 

Renfroe isn't the perfect player...but he's close to the perfect fit for this team right now. RH'ed hitter, hits lefties on what will be a heavy LHed hitting team and 1 year left on an affordable deal and a fairly reliable player year to year...but he also doesn't have a ton of trade value, so you're not really missing out on much. Just feels like an easy decision if you're trying to win next year. 

 

 

[wibadgers23]

Do we know of any deadlines yet for the offseason - qualifying offers, opt-outs, non-tender, etc?  Or do those not get set until after the World Series?

[Roderick]

On 10/12/2022 at 12:06 PM, monty57 said:

Urias had a 112 wRC+ and 2.1 Fangraphs WAR in 570 PA in 2021. He had a 110 wRC+ and 2.3 Fangraphs WAR in 472 PA in 2022. 

He had some defensive issues early in the year, got a bad rap and was basically set aside for Peterson (96 wRC+ and 2.2 Fangraphs WAR in 328 PA in 2021) at the end of the season.

Urias is probably best used at second base, as his arm isn't suited for the left side of the infield, but offensively he's remained an above average bat even though I think he swings for the fences too much.

As to the rest of what I quoted, I agree that Mitchell and Frelick should both be on the opening day roster, and I believe that a mix of Yelich, Renfroe, Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor will outproduce the 2022 mix of OF/DH. 

Pitching-wise, I think health is key. We had a lot of injuries to the staff in 2022, so hopefully better health and what should be better defense (Frelick over Yelich, Turang over Wong) should lead to better "run prevention."

 

I am more basic on my stats.  Just talking offense for Urias. 

2021 OPS- .790

2022 OPS- .739   

OF:  Keep Renfroe.  I'm starting Frelick and Mitchell from day 1, unless they look lost in spring training.  Taylor as  backup OF, getting 2-3 starts a week, Yelich getting 1-2 starts a week in the OF, otherwise DH.  

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Roderick said:

I am more basic on my stats.  Just talking offense for Urias. 

2021 OPS- .790

2022 OPS- .739   

OF:  Keep Renfroe.  I'm starting Frelick and Mitchell from day 1, unless they look lost in spring training.  Taylor as  backup OF, getting 2-3 starts a week, Yelich getting 1-2 starts a week in the OF, otherwise DH.  

Urias 2021 - 112 OPS+

Urias 2022 - 110 OPS+

As you can see his OPS+ is basically the same as last year. Offense was down significantly league wide, so .739 in 2022 plays more like .790 did in 2021. Need to factor in context like that.

 

 

[monty57]

57 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Urias 2021 - 112 OPS+

Urias 2022 - 110 OPS+

As you can see his OPS+ is basically the same as last year. Offense was down significantly league wide, so .739 in 2022 plays more like .790 did in 2021. Need to factor in context like that.

 

 

This is a very important point. People generally tend to watch their team daily, but don't get to watch the rest of the league on a regular basis. Therefore, they see their guys flailing around and don't realize that the rest of the league looks even worse.

That's why I really like the "+" stats that put everything relative to the league.

That said, the "3TO" / "swing hard in case you hit it" state that baseball is currently in sure is hard to watch. I'm looking forward to watching guys like Frelick, Mitchell, and Turang. I dislike the banning of the shift, as I think teams would move away from "3TO" baseball as the shift hurt those players. 

[Grabkoj]

I think they’ll keep Renfroe on the one year deal, but if they do, it’ll be to a team that needs power in the Outfield, maybe the SF Giants

Renfroe for Lamonte Wade and prospects 

I can see them trading Burnes or Woodruff for another young bat and prospects.

Teams I see they can trade them to are White Sox, Red Sox, and Twins.

Bold prediction is they’ll trade Renfroe for a stopgap OF and prospect or two, and extend Burnes.

they’ll trade Woodruff and get really good trade value while getting veteran pitchers to fill in the starting rotation

i think they can get some youth for guys like Houser too

[MNBrew]

Several scattered thoughts:

It's possible some of the role player types on that list agree to terms for less than the projected $$ to avoid the risk of getting non-tendered.

It's kind of funny to read how some folks don't want Perdomo or Gustave back when the projected cost totals about $2M between the two of them.  I could see them not returning, but in a perfect world, at worst they're depth, not awful, quite cheap, and I don't know how you ensure better replacements for the same money.

I think Suter's days here could be done.  He had some good moments this year but too many not-good ones.

If Narvaez isn't back (I'm one who doesn't want him), short of acquiring a better C, I'm not sure how you don't bring Caratini back.

Brosseau was one of our most productive bench players.  I'm not sure he's a starter, but I want him back.  I kind of like FA Jace Peterson coming back, too, but his last month or two was a step back to his first season or more here, which raises questions.

So many of our bats were just plain awful in the 2nd half.  Sure, we were 10th in runs scored, but way too often we were no threat whatsoever.  When a single & a walk are your best rally for several innings & you are horrid hitting at all & esp. w/ RISP, it's a huge problem.  The bullpen collapses made the inept offense even more painful.  The sum of all that seems to point to a decent number of changes.

I hate lots of Rob Manfred's rules.  Among them, banning the shift is ridiculous to me.  However, at the same time, shame on so many hitters for not being any better at "hitting it where they ain't!"

[wiguy94]

4 hours ago, Grabkoj said:

I think they’ll keep Renfroe on the one year deal, but if they do, it’ll be to a team that needs power in the Outfield, maybe the SF Giants

Renfroe for Lamonte Wade and prospects 

I can see them trading Burnes or Woodruff for another young bat and prospects.

Teams I see they can trade them to are White Sox, Red Sox, and Twins.

Bold prediction is they’ll trade Renfroe for a stopgap OF and prospect or two, and extend Burnes.

they’ll trade Woodruff and get really good trade value while getting veteran pitchers to fill in the starting rotation

i think they can get some youth for guys like Houser too

Why would we trade Renfroe (a RHH hitter who was one of our best hitters against LHP) for Wade another LHH who can’t hit LHP. Our OF would have 4 LHH in that scenario between Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, and Wade. 

[monty57]

It's kind of crazy that 18 of our projected 26-man roster are in arby. Totaling the numbers from the opening post, those 18 players would add up to $79.90M. 

Our committed money is Yelich ($26M w/ $4M deferred), Ashby ($1.2M), and Perlata ($3.735), with a $2M buyout on Wong and what I think is a likely exercised $3M option on Boxberger ($750,000 buyout). 

Tally that up, and we'd have a $111.84 payroll on 22 players. Frelick, Mitchell and Turang could be three of the remaining four players, totaling another $2.1M, so add a placeholder $2M for the final player, and we're looking at around $115M if we do nothing and go into battle with roughly the same team we had this year.

There has been debate on next year's payroll, but I think we'll cut back and won't have much more than this $115-$120M to work with. If that's correct, then any addition we want will have to be a cut from someone else.

This is where the idea of moving on from Renfroe comes from, and it's partially the reason I think that we could trade one of Burnes / Woodruff this offseason. Otherwise, most moves aren't going to free up much cash. Oh, it's also why Wong's option probably won't be exercised, which would save the team $8M.

[wibadgers23]

27 minutes ago, monty57 said:

It's kind of crazy that 18 of our projected 26-man roster are in arby. Totaling the numbers from the opening post, those 18 players would add up to $79.90M. 

Our committed money is Yelich ($26M w/ $4M deferred), Ashby ($1.2M), and Perlata ($3.735), with a $2M buyout on Wong and what I think is a likely exercised $3M option on Boxberger ($750,000 buyout). 

Tally that up, and we'd have a $111.84 payroll on 22 players. Frelick, Mitchell and Turang could be three of the remaining four players, totaling another $2.1M, so add a placeholder $2M for the final player, and we're looking at around $115M if we do nothing and go into battle with roughly the same team we had this year.

There has been debate on next year's payroll, but I think we'll cut back and won't have much more than this $115-$120M to work with. If that's correct, then any addition we want will have to be a cut from someone else.

This is where the idea of moving on from Renfroe comes from, and it's partially the reason I think that we could trade one of Burnes / Woodruff this offseason. Otherwise, most moves aren't going to free up much cash. Oh, it's also why Wong's option probably won't be exercised, which would save the team $8M.

The Yelich contract is such a pain in the butt.  Ugh!  Unless Mark A decides to go all out and pushes payroll over $130 million or thereabouts, we really don't have much room to work unless we let Renfroe and Wong walk, and we're almost certain to let Wong go and the budget would still be super tight.  Unless we let go a bunch of the arb-eligible guys, I expect almost nothing in free agency, at least nothing exciting.  Any kind of move will have to come via trade.  Stearns and Arnold will have to be creative this offseason.