Projected Arbitration Salaries 2023

[reillymcshane]

This is from MLB Trade Rumors. Player, service time and projected arby salary is listed.

• Hunter Renfroe (5.165): $11.2MM
• Brent Suter (5.161): $3.1MM
• Victor Caratini (5.051): $2.8MM
• Luis Perdomo (5.034): $1MM
• Brandon Woodruff (4.161): $11MM
• Matt Bush (4.132): $2MM
• Willy Adames (4.105): $9.2MM
• Trevor Gott (4.057): $1.4MM
• Corbin Burnes (4.049): $11.4MM
• Eric Lauer (4.033): $5.2MM
• Jandel Gustave (4.027): $900K
• Adrian Houser (4.010): $3.6MM
• Rowdy Tellez (4.004): $5.3MM
• Luis Urias (3.120): $4.3MM
• Hoby Milner (3.068): $1.1MM
• Devin Williams (3.056): $3.2MM
• Mike Brosseau (3.031): $1.2MM
• Keston Hiura (3.009): $2MM

Source: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/mlb-projected-arbitration-salaries-2023.html

[Jopal78]

I know he hit 30 bombs, but I just don’t see them paying 11+ million in ‘23  for Renfroe.

Caratini hard to see back at that price too.

[wibadgers23]

Thanks for posting this list.  My locks would be Renfroe, Woodruff, Bush, Adames, Gott, Burnes, Lauer, Tellez, Urias, Milner, Williams and Hiura.  Really up in the air on the rest.  Will be interesting to see what they end up doing with this bunch.

[wibadgers23]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I know he hit 30 bombs, but I just don’t see them paying 11+ million in ‘23  for Renfroe.

Caratini hard to see back at that price too.

I would be shocked if they let Renfroe walk for nothing.  If they don't want to pay him that kind of money, I think they'll just trade him and will probably get something halfway decent in return.  Someone will want him.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I know he hit 30 bombs, but I just don’t see them paying 11+ million in ‘23  for Renfroe.

Caratini hard to see back at that price too.

We're not in a position where we can opt not to pay it. Unless Attanasio and Stearns want to forego competing this year, which is highly unlikely. Renfroe has been a top 10 RF the past two years and provides assurance in the lineup when we'll need to bring along some rookies. He's worth the price. 

[Robocaller]

Adames seems low; Houser seems high. 

[Outlander]

Would non tender Suter, Caratini, Perdomo, Gustave.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I know he hit 30 bombs, but I just don’t see them paying 11+ million in ‘23  for Renfroe.

Caratini hard to see back at that price too.

I know you have this irrational crusade against Renfroe but 11+ million for Renfroe is perfectly fine.  Renfroe no matter how you look at him he is a top 50-70 player in MLB.  So $11+ million is peanuts compared to what he would get in FA.  

If Renfroe were a FA coming into this off season he would easily get what Avisail Garcia receive last off season if not more.  Also Renfroe being traded from different teams holds no value and means absolutely nothing.  

Caratini seems to be a bit high on the estimate.  I think he gets closer to $2m than he will be to $3m.  If the Brewers don't bring back someone it will be Suter as that price is way too much to be paying him to pitch only low leverage situations.  Adames is also light I think he gets closer to what they have Renfroe at.  

I can see the Brewers settling with Renfroe, Caratini, Bush and Milner before they get to arbitration.  Renfroe at $10m, Caratini at $1.5m, Bush at $1.5m and Milner at $1.1m.  I believe the Brewers may try to sign Milner to a multi year deal and buying out 1 or 2 years of arbitration to get cost certainty.  

I don't believe the Brewers would go with 3 rookie OF's on the team but it may happen.  If the Brewers get rid of Renfroe that means an OF of Taylor, Frelick, Mitchell and Ruiz as your main OF's with Yelich being the 5th OF and primary DH.  I don't see the Brewers paying for an OF FA who will cost as much if not more than Renfroe.  You won't get Renfroe production from FA at less than what it would cost in arbitration for Renfroe.  There wouldn't be much in terms of savings if you are letting Renfroe go. 

If the Brewers are going to spend FA dollars it will be on the bullpen and not in the OF so Renfroe will be back unless he is traded.  If Renfroe is traded then the Brewers will have two rookies starting in the OF in 2023 in Mitchell and Frelick.  Also Yelich probably stays as the primary LF if Renfroe is traded with Taylor splitting time with Frelick and Mitchell.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

I know you have this irrational crusade against Renfroe but 11+ million for Renfroe is perfectly fine.  Renfroe no matter how you look at him he is a top 50-70 player in MLB.  So $11+ million is peanuts compared to what he would get in FA.  

If Renfroe were a FA coming into this off season he would easily get what Avisail Garcia receive last off season if not more.  Also Renfroe being traded from different teams holds no value and means absolutely nothing.  

Caratini seems to be a bit high on the estimate.  I think he gets closer to $2m than he will be to $3m.  If the Brewers don't bring back someone it will be Suter as that price is way too much to be paying him to pitch only low leverage situations.  Adames is also light I think he gets closer to what they have Renfroe at.  

I can see the Brewers settling with Renfroe, Caratini, Bush and Milner before they get to arbitration.  Renfroe at $10m, Caratini at $1.5m, Bush at $1.5m and Milner at $1.1m.  I believe the Brewers may try to sign Milner to a multi year deal and buying out 1 or 2 years of arbitration to get cost certainty.  

I don't believe the Brewers would go with 3 rookie OF's on the team but it may happen.  If the Brewers get rid of Renfroe that means an OF of Taylor, Frelick, Mitchell and Ruiz as your main OF's with Yelich being the 5th OF and primary DH.  I don't see the Brewers paying for an OF FA who will cost as much if not more than Renfroe.  You won't get Renfroe production from FA at less than what it would cost in arbitration for Renfroe.  There wouldn't be much in terms of savings if you are letting Renfroe go. 

If the Brewers are going to spend FA dollars it will be on the bullpen and not in the OF so Renfroe will be back unless he is traded.  If Renfroe is traded then the Brewers will have two rookies starting in the OF in 2023 in Mitchell and Frelick.  Also Yelich probably stays as the primary LF if Renfroe is traded with Taylor splitting time with Frelick and Mitchell.

No, Renfroe is not a top 50-70 player in MLB.
 

He’s a .300/.490 player. I get it homers are sexy, and Hunter looks good compared to the mostly below average hitters the Brewers fielded in ‘22.  But literally Domingo Santana and Renfroe have similar career OPS and Santana is playing in Japan. That’s the reality of what Renfroe is, if you love counting stats and being lord amongst the mediocre, he’s your guy. But 11+ million for a flawed player Is getting steep.

As for Caratini, he made 2 million dollars  in ‘22. If you think he’s worth 1.5 million he won’t be with Milwaukee next year. They would non-tender as there is virtually no precedent for offering a pay cut  and going to a arbitration hearing.  

[nate82]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

No, Renfroe is not a top 50-70 player in MLB.
 

He’s a .300/.490 player. I get it homers are sexy, and Hunter looks good compared to the mostly below average hitters the Brewers fielded in ‘22.  But literally Domingo Santana and Renfroe have similar career OPS and Santana is playing in Japan. That’s the reality of what Renfroe is, if you love counting stats and being lord amongst the mediocre, he’s your guy. But 11+ million for a flawed player Is getting steep.

Well lets see where Renfroe ranks among some of the counting stats from 2022.  

OBP ranked 84th

SLG ranked 18th

AVG ranked 69th

wRC+ ranked 46th

WAR ranked 70th

 

It is not the home runs I am not sure why you are so hung up on the home runs.  Overall Renfroe is worth the $11+m and it is not about the home runs.  He is a good player and I am not sure why you keep on repeating your opinion as a fact.  

[Jopal78]

Just now, nate82 said:

Well lets see where Renfroe ranks among some of the counting stats from 2022.  

OBP ranked 84th

SLG ranked 18th

AVG ranked 69th

wRC+ ranked 46th

WAR ranked 70th

 

It is not the home runs I am not sure why you are so hung up on the home runs.  Overall Renfroe is worth the $11+m and it is not about the home runs.  He is a good player and I am not sure why you keep on repeating your opinion as a fact.  

“He is a good player” correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s also an opinion repeated as fact. 
 

Time will tell, but the Brewers are a tight fisted organization and they have a mediocre player in Renfroe where the system says they need to pay him a sizable amount of cash next year. Based on history,  I doubt it happens, but we’ll see. 

[Redd Vencher]

51 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

“He is a good player” correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s also an opinion repeated as fact. 
 

Time will tell, but the Brewers are a tight fisted organization and they have a mediocre player in Renfroe where the system says they need to pay him a sizable amount of cash next year. Based on history,  I doubt it happens, but we’ll see. 

His 124 wRC+ was 8th and his 2.5 fWAR was T-9th amongst RF with minimum 400 PA. You're not going to find better on the FA market for $11 M.

[Brewcrew82]

56 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

“He is a good player” correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s also an opinion repeated as fact. 
 

Time will tell, but the Brewers are a tight fisted organization and they have a mediocre player in Renfroe where the system says they need to pay him a sizable amount of cash next year. Based on history,  I doubt it happens, but we’ll see. 

The "fact" is that Renfroe has been a top 10 RF in MLB for each of the past two seasons. Given that he's squarely in the middle of his prime, that is likely to be the case once again in 2023, which makes the $11 million we're set to pay him worth it. Your bizarre hostility towards Renfroe is completely blinding your evaluation of his actual abilities. 

[reillymcshane]

Regarding Renfroe, I have not problem paying him $10-11M. 

He'll be 31 next season, so not old. He's averaged 30 HR, .250ish BA, .800ish OPS. His defense is 'meh' but not horrible. Same with base running. He's a perfectly fine 2.0-3.0 WAR. Nothing sexy. But he works.

Now, all that said, if someone makes you a nice trade offer - fine. Take it. And if you think Wiemer is ready, same thing goes. But with only a year left, and the $11m projected salary - I doubt we get a ton in trade value. So I'm good with just keeping him. He's a solid righthanded power bat. Nothing wrong with that.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

He’s a .300/.490 player. I get it homers are sexy, and Hunter looks good compared to the mostly below average hitters the Brewers fielded in ‘22.  But literally Domingo Santana and Renfroe have similar career OPS and Santana is playing in Japan..  

Only four of the Brewers top 13 players by PAs - McCutchen (98), Peterson (96), Caratini (84) and Narvaez (71) - had below average wRC+.

The other nine - Renfroe (124), Brosseau (118), Wong (116), Hiura (115), Yelich (111), Urias (110), Rowdy (110), Adames (109) and Tyrone (102) - were above average by wRC+.

All told 1,840 of the Brewers 6,122 PAs (30%) were taken by players with a wRC+ below 100.

Domingo was a butcher in the field with -34 DRS | -30 UZR | -27 OAA for his career and hit for a 101 wRC+ and 0.9 WAR over 826 PAs covering his last three seasons in MLB.

Renfroe for his career is at +22 DRS | -1 UZR | -2 OAA, so he’s much better afield and over his last 1,094 PAs he has put up a 118 wRC+ and 4.6 WAR.

[superfly]

I don’t get the urge to jettison our best or 2nd best hitter at a reasonable cost. Guess people would rather gO pAy gOoD pLaYeRs Yelich salaries and then complain how we’re burdened by giant contracts. You can’t just plug and play a minor leaguer and expect Renfroe numbers to be an automatic, and then when the gambling ways don’t work out blame Stearns for taking unnecessary risks or inactivity in the free agent market. Poor guy can’t win no matter what he does.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, superfly said:

I don’t get the urge to jettison our best or 2nd best hitter at a reasonable cost. Guess people would rather gO pAy gOoD pLaYeRs Yelich salaries and then complain how we’re burdened by giant contracts. You can’t just plug and play a minor leaguer and expect Renfroe numbers to be an automatic, and then when the gambling ways don’t work out blame Stearns for taking unnecessary risks or inactivity in the free agent market. Poor guy can’t win no matter what he does.

To be fair, it's just two posters who want to do this. 

[SF70]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

To be fair, it's just two posters who want to do this. 

Make it 3. 
Team has enough OF talent to produce the 2.2–2.5 WAR that Renfroe would likely give the team this coming year.

A trade of Renfroe will net a couple of lottery-type prospects, but more importantly save the team $11M off the payroll, of which that savings can be used in other areas like adding starting-pitching depth needed with the possible trade of Burnes this coming offseason.

[torts]

I dont know who we could get for RF for less than $11 on the market (unless you want to trot out rookies in CF/RF to start the season).  here are the free agents... who is going to sign for 1 year (besides Our Lort and Savior Judge, obvi)?  no one, they're almost all going to ask for multi-year deals, which further strings us along.  Keeping Renfroe for $11 million for one more season isnt going to blow up the budget.  

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/2022-23-mlb-free-agents.html

Right Fielders

Albert Almora (29)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (33)
Kole Calhoun (35) – $5.5MM club option
Joey Gallo (29)
Ben Gamel (31)
Robbie Grossman (33)
Mitch Haniger (32)
Aaron Judge (31)
Nomar Mazara (28)
Andrew McCutchen (36)
Wil Myers (32) – $20MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Tyler Naquin (32)
Chad Pinder (31)
Stephen Piscotty (32)

[monty57]

The team will not get a better player on a one-year / $11M contract than Renfroe, so they wouldn't let him go (or trade him) and then try to find a replacement on the FA market. They could use the money elsewhere, but they wouldn't find a one-year replacement for Renfroe.

If they let him go, they would replace him in-house. The two most likely replacements would either be Wiemer in RF, or Hiura at DH. Weimer will be 24 next year, and his minor league career numbers are .274 / .367 / .506 / .873. After moving to AAA, he hit .287 / .368 / .520 / .888. He will probably take over for Renfroe, it is just a question of whether it is to start 2023, to start 2024, or somewhere in between. If they trust Hiura to be the everyday DH, then they could start Yelich, Mitchell, and Frelick in the OF.

So, the Brewers will let Renfroe go if and only if they either (A) trust three rookies to start in the OF, or (B) show a lot more faith in Keston Hiura than they showed this year.

I personally don't think (B) is an option. They wouldn't start Hiura over McCutchen, who they paid $8.5M for a year, so I think they'd pay Renfroe $10-11M rather than start Hiura.

There is some precedence for option (A). When Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta were rookies, they started all three. Woodruff looked good that year, but the others did not. Burnes was so bad that people thought he should be out of baseball. All three eventually worked out very well, but they took their lumps as rookie starters. 

I think that it's worth the $11M to keep Renfroe another year, but his replacement is already in house. It's just a matter of whether the Brewers want to take the risk of starting that many rookies. Remember, there's also the Wong/Turang debate. If they aren't willing to pay Renfroe, they probably wouldn't be willing to play Wong, in which case we could be starting Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, and Turang. I like prospects, but I don't see them doing that.

[Jopal78]

I guess the point is: if you add up those projected salaries it comes to approx. 80 million dollars. Yelich, Peralta and Ashby will add another 30+ million. That's now 110 million in payroll, which gets into an area which the Brewers do not exceed very often ('19 and '22 both years coming off a division title), this is especially so when the fans didn't come out for them as much as in the past. 

Of course they're not going to keep everyone that is arbitration eligible. Is the difference between Renfroe (.790-.800 OPS) and what one of their rookie outfielders would produce worth the 10.3 million dollar difference in salary? Time will tell, I do know it has all the markings of a classic Brewers move: ie. creating payroll flexibility, creating opportunity for a younger player, etc. etc. 

[MrTPlush]

What an annoying number of dudes set to make $2mil-$4mil. That could be messy if they start looking for ways to save money.

Renfroe is a total no brainer. That kind of production with a one year commitment? You take it 10/10 times. Whether one wants to trade him to use that money elsewhere is a different story. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

Make it 3. 
Team has enough OF talent to produce the 2.2–2.5 WAR that Renfroe would likely give the team this coming year.

A trade of Renfroe will net a couple of lottery-type prospects, but more importantly save the team $11M off the payroll, of which that savings can be used in other areas like adding starting-pitching depth needed with the possible trade of Burnes this coming offseason.

On a team desperate for offense, you want to jettison our only hitter who had an OPS over .800? A trade of Renfroe would mean starting Taylor or an all-rookie OF. Taylor, while a superb 4th outfielder, isn't quite on Renfroe's level and is best used as a supplemental option rather than an everyday option as we saw this year. As for the rookies, it is a big leap to assume that they will be able to immediately replicate Renfroe's 2.7 WAR from this year. That just isn't a risk a contending ball-club like the Brewers can afford to take. Overall, getting rid of Renfroe, our best hitter from this year, would be crippling to the offense without any significant outside additions. He is well worth the $11M price tag. 

Also, the possibility of Burnes being traded this offseason remains relatively remote. A 10-15% chance, imo. 

[Outlander]

On this team I think a guy like Renfroe is a good player to have, don't necessarily want every player to have the same strengths. Renfroe can provide power when some of the better projected on base guys get on in front of him. He is a right handed hitter that actually can hit lefties, which has been a weakness of the Brewers the last couple of year and may not get better if left handed hitters Mitchell/Frelick get more at bats next season.

Do agree they have a lot of guys making 2-4 million and that is going to happen when they have so many in arbitration. Need to jettison some of them through DFA or trade.

 

[SRB]

I think some of you have not adjusted your MLB salary inflation in about 15-20 years.

$11 million for Hunter Renfroe in 2023 is a no-brainer.

Suter is a tough call, but I expect he'll be back since we need LHP in the bullpen.

Caratini seems like a lock given our lack of catching.

Perdomo is a non-tender.

Gott would be borderline for me, but I'm guessing they'll bring him back.

Gustave I could see going either way, depends how much they want to keep him around as a depth piece.

Milner a definite tender as a LHP.

The most interesting for me is Hiura. That's not a lot of money, and he was decent at times, but if he's not the full time DH then he doesn't have a clear role on the team.