Sunk Costs

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

Why not try to move Renfroe in some sort of trade (see Adam Lind) and roll with a Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer OF with Taylor as the 4th OF?

Because that's a high-risk option. Renfroe is more of a sure thing (barring injury). IMO, we shouldn't take many high-risk options unless we're giving up on 2023 (trading Burnes and/or Woodruff). 

[MrTPlush]

59 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Because that's a high-risk option. Renfroe is more of a sure thing (barring injury). IMO, we shouldn't take many high-risk options unless we're giving up on 2023 (trading Burnes and/or Woodruff). 

Yah, having all three start is just a really poor idea. The odds that all of those guys are above average contributors is incredibly unlikely. 1 or even 2 of them will probably prove to not be worthy of a roster spot all year as rookies, better off just having all get a chance covering two of the spots and see who can hit. 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Yah, having all three start is just a really poor idea. The odds that all of those guys are above average contributors is incredibly unlikely. 1 or even 2 of them will probably prove to not be worthy of a roster spot all year as rookies, better off just having all get a chance covering two of the spots and see who can hit. 

Precisely. You leave room for two rookies to take hold of a spot, while having Renfroe, Taylor, and Yelich as your intermediary assurance. That is almost certainly the direction Stearns and co. will take. 

[clancyphile]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Because that's a high-risk option. Renfroe is more of a sure thing (barring injury). IMO, we shouldn't take many high-risk options unless we're giving up on 2023 (trading Burnes and/or Woodruff). 

Even if you keep Wiemer in AAA, how big a gap is there between Renfroe and Tyrone Taylor? Taylor may give up some OPS points, but his defense in right would be better than Renfroe's.

[nate82]

42 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Even if you keep Wiemer in AAA, how big a gap is there between Renfroe and Tyrone Taylor? Taylor may give up some OPS points, but his defense in right would be better than Renfroe's.

There is a huge gap between Renfroe and Taylor.  Taylor is about a 100 wRC+ player while Renfroe is a 120 wRC+ player.  That is a huge gap.  Taylor's defense in RF wouldn't be able to overcome the offensive downgrade that would occur going from Renfroe to Taylor.  

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Because we're currently in the midst of a competitive window whereas we were in a rebuild when we traded Lind. No way they go into next season with an all-rookie starting outfield, while retaining Burnes and Woodruff. Then, there is the fact that Renfroe was by a significant degree our best hitter this year. 

Right. If you wanna hit a reset and trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames and just stock the system, then fine, start the season with Frelick, Mitchell and Wiemer. And we'd STILL be starting Yelich and he'd still be getting ~600 PAs if he performed as he did this year.

If you're not unloading all 3...and I suspect we keep the two aces unless we're blown away(even then, Attanasio may step in on this one) then it's just a terrible idea. Even the best prospects struggle. As good as Mitchell was last year, he was 4 games away from an OPS under .700 and he struck out ~42% of the time. 

We've got great prospects. We're not going to just sit Yelich and he doesn't have to beat them out. There are ALWAYS enough at bats in an OF for good players to get enough ABs, especially with a DH(and 1B). 

Plus, Frelick can always just...move over to SS since at some time he donned an IF glove....

[monty57]

Taylor has shown to be a very valuable 4th OF. He can play all three positions and fills in nicely when needed. Plus, he's right-handed when Yelich, Mitchell and Frelick all hit left-handed. As a starter, I'm glad that we have better options.

It may not turn out like this, but it looks to me like we'll have Yelich, Renfroe, Mitchell, Frelick, and Taylor on the opening day roster next year. Three will be in the OF every day, and one will be the DH. 

Ruiz is still relatively new to the OF after he failed as a second baseman, so he can use more reps in AAA, and Wiemer will join him there. Both will be ready to be called up if needed, but both could be passed up quickly as Chourio is getting closer to MLB-ready, so I could see one of them being used as part of a trade this offseason.

As to the topic of the thread, the only sunk cost in that bunch is Yelich, as Renfroe could be let go rather than offering him arby. If Yelich is eventually moved to full-time DH, our OF will be very cheap for quite a while. Of course, the recent trend is to offer good prospects an extension early on, so some of these guys will get locked up, thereby becoming "sunk costs."