Sunk Costs

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, owbc said:

Does anyone know how much the positional adjustment would (approximately) reduce that WAR number? Assuming Yelich puts up the same numbers in 2023 at DH (or hypothetically, 1B), I'm guessing he would drop below 2 WAR. 

The difference wouldn't be that much especially with the way Yelich played defense in LF this year. JD Martinez played all 139 days at DH this year and his fangraphs defensive value was -15.0, Yelich's defensive value at the end of the season was -12.9. He would likely be just above 2.0 fWAR if he was a full-time DH this year.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, owbc said:

Does anyone know how much the positional adjustment would (approximately) reduce that WAR number? Assuming Yelich puts up the same numbers in 2023 at DH (or hypothetically, 1B), I'm guessing he would drop below 2 WAR. 

Between positional adjustment and fielding this year, Yelich was at -13 runs (FanGraphs) and -9 runs (BRef) over 671 PAs. That's with a 114 LF/35 DH defensive split for games started.

Nelson Cruz (507 PAs as DH only) had a -13 runs (FanGraphs) and -11 runs (BRef) positional adjustment this year.

In terms of WAR, once we account for Yelich's extra PAs, the difference between being a poor LF and full time DH is probably a couple two tree runs. Ideally that would be offset by an increase in production from a hopefully more healthy/rested Christian.

[Brewin]

The amount of grief Yelich takes on this board continues to amaze me. Obviously he isn't MVP Yelich, but is still an above average MLB starter. Everyone understands he has a significant contract, but he is far from the biggest problem on this team

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, WICKDADDY said:

He hits them hard ... and right at the 2b. The shift rules don't change that. 

So you switch from saying he hits a ton of weak ground balls to agreeing he hits hard ground balls. You aren't stating facts, you are offering your opinion as fact. Just be careful when doing so.

[NBBrewFan]

I don't think there's a brewerfan on the planet and maybe the ISS who wouldn't be tickled pink if Frelick out "produced" Yelich in 2023 while Yelich puts up 2.5 WAR.  Frelick has a lot of potential, but no projection should replace data.  As other's have noted having them 1/2 in the order (Yelich with vg speed/basrunning) in front of a contact hitter with a chance to have a high BA, while moving Adames down would go a long way to helping this lineup blend their hitting approaches.  Also, as noted by others (Sveum IIRC) while we aren't seeing MVP Yelich he is still putting up decent numbers compared to a large group of FA who were signed over the past few years. I'm not happy with it, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't cripple this team any more than paying Ryan Braun $105M+ for 8.2 fWAR.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

I'm not happy with it, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't cripple this team any more than paying Ryan Braun $105M+ for 8.2 fWAR.

Yup. Braun signed his 105 million extension in 2011. 

After he got popped again in 2013, and his production fell off while the team floundered (380-430 record from 2012-16, 22nd in MLB) there was a lot of talk about how the Brewers could never compete with the albatross of Braun's contract weighing them down.

Then from 2017-20 they went 300-247 (10th in MLB), made the playoffs three times and only missed by two games in the other season.

[Roderick]

I hope they move Yelich to DH/1B.  But, if not, how good defensively is Frelick if he had to play CF?

[Thurston Fluff]

I always thought sunk cost meant money that was already spent and cannot be recovered so I looked it up and that is indeed what it means. It appears to me most people here are taking it to mean money wasted. The real question is what to do with it now that it is a sunk cost. The obvious answer is to get as much return on investment as possible. I think the best way to do that is to expand his versatility. If Yelich can play some first, some corner outfield and DH it's far more useful than if he can only play left and DH. Obviously he isn't going to be a good right fielder but I don't think he'd be worse than McCutchen. if we can get 10-15 starts in right, another 30 or so in left, 30 or so at first that would be a pretty decent way to give guys a day off with little to no drop off. That would also leave about 80 games at DH so he could still play most games while remaining relatively fresh. The Brewers typically have a guy who doesn't have a set position but still gets as many starts as those who do. He'd essentially take over the role as supersub/starter hybrid they'd employed for a while now.

[Jopal78]

After working on it in all of spring training '18 Ryan Braun made a grand total of 12 starts in the major leagues at first base. To the non-major league player it might seem easy to simply move your worst fielder to first. But when the Brewers have tried it with Braun, and later Hiura,  it hasn't really worked out. I kind of doubt they move Yelich to DH either-as the manager has shown he likes to rotate players through the DH spot trying to keep everyone fresh.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Roderick said:

I hope they move Yelich to DH/1B.  But, if not, how good defensively is Frelick if he had to play CF?

Perfectly fine.  Mitchell is better defensively but it is not that much of a difference between the two.  

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

Perfectly fine.  Mitchell is better defensively but it is not that much of a difference between the two.  

I don't think the difference is that big currently, but in the next few years the gap should increase as Mitchell gets more accustomed to CF in the MLB. His speed and arm are big upgrades over Frelick. Frelick probably does profile best as a LF because of his slight frame and average arm.

[Hopper]

2 hours ago, Brewin said:

The amount of grief Yelich takes on this board continues to amaze me. Obviously he isn't MVP Yelich, but is still an above average MLB starter. Everyone understands he has a significant contract, but he is far from the biggest problem on this team

His contract is a HUGE problem for this team when he doesn't produce the numbers needed to justify that contract.

His contract just makes all the other problems run into each other.

We can't sign Burnes and Woodruff long term because of it.

We can't sign any BIG BAT free agents because of it.

We can't do much of anything that will make a big impact on the team in general because of it.

So yeah, his contract leads to the biggest problems this team has.

[Robocaller]

Moving Yelich to the role of McCutchen seems wise, assuming they don't acquire a bat. McCutchen played 50 games in the OF, Yelich could play a bit more. He shouldn't play 154 games or get 671  PA like he did this year (McCutchen played 134 games with 580 PA). He should sit against some lefties. 

Moving Yelich to 1B doesn't seem great. 1) There's no guarantee he'll play 1B better than Rowdy (who would get moved to DH); 2) He's not a platoon match for Rowdy; 3) He won't have a good enough bat to fit at 1B long-term.

Long-term, Yelich is a 4-5th OF and DH. Unless his bat somehow is reborn (BTW, if he were traded to the Cardinals, that would be sure to happen).

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Moving Yelich to the role of McCutchen seems wise, assuming they don't acquire a bat. McCutchen played 50 games in the OF, Yelich could play a bit more. He shouldn't play 154 games or get 671  PA like he did this year (McCutchen played 134 games with 580 PA). He should sit against some lefties. 

Moving Yelich to 1B doesn't seem great. 1) There's no guarantee he'll play 1B better than Rowdy (who would get moved to DH); 2) He's not a platoon match for Rowdy; 3) He won't have a good enough bat to fit at 1B long-term.

Long-term, Yelich is a 4-5th OF and DH. Unless his bat somehow is reborn (BTW, if he were traded to the Cardinals, that would be sure to happen).

Cutch would have had more if he didn't miss two weeks because of COVID in May. Probably would have had 145 games and 600+ PA.

[Robocaller]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Cutch would have had more if he didn't miss two weeks because of COVID in May. Probably would have had 145 games and 600+ PA.

we can hope Yelich catches a minor illness next season.  ?

 

[NBBrewFan]

47 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Cutch would have had more if he didn't miss two weeks because of COVID in May. Probably would have had 145 games and 600+ PA.

I wonder when he reflects on 2022, does CC think to himself. if only we had Cutch for those 2 weeks in May we might have squeaked into the playoffs?

[WICKDADDY]

5 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

So you switch from saying he hits a ton of weak ground balls to agreeing he hits hard ground balls. You aren't stating facts, you are offering your opinion as fact. Just be careful when doing so.

Buddy I wasn’t the one who said he hits weak grounders… try to follow along. 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Hopper said:

His contract is a HUGE problem for this team when he doesn't produce the numbers needed to justify that contract.

His contract just makes all the other problems run into each other.

We can't sign Burnes and Woodruff long term because of it.

We can't sign any BIG BAT free agents because of it.

We can't do much of anything that will make a big impact on the team in general because of it.

So yeah, his contract leads to the biggest problems this team has.

Yelich’s contract isn’t preventing the Brewers from extending Burnes or Woodruff or Adames. It isn’t the reason they won’t be major players in free agency.

It’s a factor, sure, but the root cause is the uneven economic playing field teams operate on, driven by the massive differences in local TV deals.

If the Brewers could run $281M (LAD) $264M (NYM) or $246M (NYY) or $229M (PHI) or $211M (SDP) or $207M (BOS) or $193M (CHW) or $189M (LAA) or $178M (ATL) or $175M (HOU) or $171M (TOR) opening day payrolls they could have more than one player making 25 million on the roster.

Until MLB & the players union agree to massive changes in the way revenue is distributed among teams this is the reality.

That the Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB over the last five years (more than everyone except for LAD, HOU, NYY, TBR and ATL) gives me confidence they’ll be able to figure out a way to remain competitive even if Yelich is only chipping in a couple two tree WAR for his 26 million.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Quote

even if Yelich is only chipping in a couple two tree WAR for his 26 million.

I got to remember to use folksy talk when delivering bad news.  It just makes it sound better.

Ya know, I'm sorry to have to let you go, but you should find a job in a couple two tree months....

[rickh150]

10 hours ago, WICKDADDY said:

He hits them hard ... and right at the 2b. The shift rules don't change that. 

Actually, I think it does. The 2B is not always going to be in the same spot without the shift. There will be more holes for Yelich and Rowdy, of course.

[liveforoctober]

4 hours ago, WICKDADDY said:

Buddy I wasn’t the one who said he hits weak grounders… try to follow along. 

Ok, champ. You echoed the sentiment. That means you agreed without repeating the same words.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Moving forward I like the idea of Yelich/Frelick at the top of the order (or Frelick/Yelich). I also like the idea of Mitchell being up there provided the K's get under control, which I think they will. The thing is, we're talking about 3 LH hitters. Unless CC moves away from his LRLRLR obsession none of that will happen, and we'll probably still see Adames hitting 2nd. Which would be too bad, I like the idea of dropping him a slot.

My gut tells me Yelich is in a LF/DH role in '23. I just don't think a move to 1B, even occasionally, is in the cards.

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yelich’s contract isn’t preventing the Brewers from extending Burnes or Woodruff or Adames. It isn’t the reason they won’t be major players in free agency.

It’s a factor, sure, but the root cause is the uneven economic playing field teams operate on, driven by the massive differences in local TV deals.

If the Brewers could run $281M (LAD) $264M (NYM) or $246M (NYY) or $229M (PHI) or $211M (SDP) or $207M (BOS) or $193M (CHW) or $189M (LAA) or $178M (ATL) or $175M (HOU) or $171M (TOR) opening day payrolls they could have more than one player making 25 million on the roster.

Just because some teams can afford to carry Yelich's contract doesn't mean the Brewers can. Given the constraints of their budget, it absolutely limits their other decisions, such as extending other players who will command big $..

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Moving forward I like the idea of Yelich/Frelick at the top of the order (or Frelick/Yelich). I also like the idea of Mitchell being up there provided the K's get under control, which I think they will. The thing is, we're talking about 3 LH hitters. Unless CC moves away from his LRLRLR obsession none of that will happen, and we'll probably still see Adames hitting 2nd. Which would be too bad, I like the idea of dropping him a slot.

Well, you better get them to fire CC, because I think that's the only way he'll have 2 lefties at the top of the order.   He has had lefties batting 1 and 9.

[Robocaller]

11 hours ago, Brewin said:

The amount of grief Yelich takes on this board continues to amaze me. Obviously he isn't MVP Yelich, but is still an above average MLB starter. Everyone understands he has a significant contract, but he is far from the biggest problem on this team

I don't think the grief is directed at Yelich, who is an averagish hitter, but at the guy who extended him when he was recovering from an injury.