Sunk Costs

[WICKDADDY]

To achieve our future potential, we need to recognize sunk costs and mitigate their damage. This is true in life and baseball. That's why this team cannot go into 2023 with Christian Yelich as a full-time starter. The sample size doesn't lie. Our eyes don't lie. A change needs to be made. 

2023 should be an opportunity to see what we have with Frelick, Mitchell, and Ruiz. I also hope that we keep Renfroe - arguably our most productive all around hitter.  

To that end, I don't see a future for Yelich in the OF. He needs to learn 1B gradually and only be relied upon as a DH platoon.  

I take no joy in saying this, but it's time for the Brewers to make Yelich earn his spot back. Sunk costs should not dictate the direction of this franchise. 

[wildcat2237]

I'm 100% in agreement with you.

However, this would require management admitting they made a collosal mistake. 

In order to mitigate the Yelich "sunk cost" the team is going to need to deploy as many young players as possible. I'm hopeful this offseason the team jettisons as many old players as possible.  

[adambr2]

If he had sunk to a level where he was a replacement level player I'd agree with this. But he's still ok, just not great. 

I don't disagree with finding playing time for the young guys, but that will take care of itself in letting Christian DH from time to time and letting Andrew McCutchen walk. 

All that said, Yelich hasn't hit particularly well against LHP the last couple seasons, so I could definitely see him getting some days off against tough lefties. 

[wibadgers23]

Moving Yelich to a mostly DH role should be the easiest decision of the offseason.  With guys like Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, and Ruiz, who are all very good outfielders, there's no reason to stick Yelich's terrible defense out there anymore.

[Outlander]

Christian Yelich is still good enough to be a full time starter, he is just vastly overpaid. He is a 3 WAR player offensively but negative defensively. Certainly would prefer him over McCutchen at DH.

[NBBrewFan]

If Yelich was a full time DH batting leadoff he is likely to be the 6th/7th best DH in MLB.  

He put up greater than 2.5 WAR this year even with fielding that is below average. He was our 4th best hitter in 2022 by WAR and 1 of the top 3 is Wong and he might not be back.

At this point he could take some time to learn 1B, but for another year he's likely never going to be a better option then our current LH 1B. Yelich is suited to be the primary DH in 2023 no matter how much you dislike him.

[nate82]

Yelich as the primary DH wouldn’t be a sunk cost.  He is not playing up to his contract but he is still valuable to the team.

Yelich has become a very expensive lead off hitter.  Good OBP and bad slugging.  His average should increase with the shift being eliminated.

He needs to work on his launch angle on pitches down in the strike zone.  This has always been a problem for Yelich.  Even in his MVP year his launch angles were negative low and in the zone.

If that can be fixed or if he can make more solid contact when a pitcher makes a mistake he should be fine.

[sveumrules]

BRef (2.7 WAR) and FanGraphs (2.3 WAR) both had him tied for 4th on the team in WAR.

That’s something like $9.6 to $11.3 million per win. Sure, Yelich’s production didn’t entirely live up to his contract this year, but that doesn’t mean it was a sunk cost either. 

Guys like Rendon ($36.5M | 0.8 WAR), Strasburg ($35M | 0 WAR), Cabrera ($32M | -1.5 WAR), Price ($32M | 0.1 WAR), Sale ($30M | 0.2 WAR), [Sale & Price getting 62 million for 0.3 WAR is just too funny], Giancarlo ($29M | 1.2 WAR), Votto ($25M | -0.9 WAR), Heyward ($24.5M | -0.4 WAR), Corbin ($23.5M | -2.0 WAR), MadBum ($23M | 0.5 WAR), Wil Myers ($22.5M | 1 WAR), Blackmon ($21.5M | 0.1 WAR), Hosmer ($20M | 0.1. WAR), Castellanos ($20M | -0.7 WAR), Ryu ($20M | 0.1 WAR), Yasmani ($18M | -0.4 WAR), Bryant ($18M | 0.6 WAR), Ozuna ($16M | -0.6 WAR), Moose ($16M | -0.5 WAR) were the ones really throwing off the dollar per WAR framework this year.

[Brewcrew82]

Yeah, Yelich is nowhere near a "sunk cost" right now. He'll never fulfill his entire contract value, but he has important skills that this team otherwise severely lacks in, namely, the ability to get on base. If he can replicate his 121 WRC+ from the leadoff spot over the course of a full season, we'll be in a relatively good position. He could pair very nicely with Frelick at the top of the lineup. We still need one more consistent run producer, though, imho. Jose Abreu would be a great acquisition in that sense, assuming that he's willing to accept something similar to what we were seemingly willing to give to Justin Turner a couple offseasons ago. 

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

BRef (2.7 WAR) and FanGraphs (2.3 WAR) both had him tied for 4th on the team in WAR.

That’s something like $9.6 to $11.3 million per win. Sure, Yelich’s production didn’t entirely live up to his contract this year, but that doesn’t mean it was a sunk cost either. 

Guys like Rendon ($36.5M | 0.8 WAR), Strasburg ($35M | 0 WAR), Cabrera ($32M | -1.5 WAR), Price ($32M | 0.1 WAR), Sale ($30M | 0.2 WAR), [Sale & Price getting 62 million for 0.3 WAR is just too funny], Giancarlo ($29M | 1.2 WAR), Votto ($25M | -0.9 WAR), Heyward ($24.5M | -0.4 WAR), Corbin ($23.5M | -2.0 WAR), MadBum ($23M | 0.5 WAR), Wil Myers ($22.5M | 1 WAR), Blackmon ($21.5M | 0.1 WAR), Hosmer ($20M | 0.1. WAR), Castellanos ($20M | -0.7 WAR), Ryu ($20M | 0.1 WAR), Yasmani ($18M | -0.4 WAR), Bryant ($18M | 0.6 WAR), Ozuna ($16M | -0.6 WAR), Moose ($16M | -0.5 WAR) were the ones really throwing off the dollar per WAR framework this year.

This is a great post as it puts into perspective a lot of the 2022 realities regarding MLB. I think for many people clamoring for Stearns to be better at his job don't always understand the overall baseball landscape, as they are primarily listening to Brewer fan radio/podcasts and only watching Brewers games. If one is only paying attention to things inside the Brewer-centric vacuum, things look unacceptable. But the overall reality is that trying to sustain playoff-level baseball is extremely difficult.

In regards to Yelich's future, I would agree with most of the posters here that the Brewers will need to emphasize long-term viability of the contract. DHing, and keeping him healthy enough to run the bases will be important.

Not to derail the thread, but my gosh isn't Yelich an awesome baserunner?

[WICKDADDY]

Frelick projects as the best leadoff hitter going into 2023 and beyond, Mitchell's speed makes him intriguing in that spot too. Yelich's future isn't in the leadoff spot IMO.

The truth is he's had over 2 years to make adjustments to his swing. The results haven't been there. Maybe the shift will help him, but I'd need to see the data on why the shift would help him more relative to other players who have outproduced him. 

He's fine, but he should have to compete for his spot. Otherwise we're just accepting mediocrity. 

 

 

[WICKDADDY]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, Yelich is nowhere near a "sunk cost" right now. He'll never fulfill his entire contract value, but he has important skills that this team otherwise severely lacks in, namely, the ability to get on base. If he can replicate his 121 WRC+ from the leadoff spot over the course of a full season, we'll be in a relatively good position. He could pair very nicely with Frelick at the top of the lineup. We still need one more consistent run producer, though, imho. Jose Abreu would be a great acquisition in that sense, assuming that he's willing to accept something similar to what we were seemingly willing to give to Justin Turner a couple offseasons ago. 

The truth is we're "under water" on his contract though. We can't move him. He has negative value relative to his contract. Given that reality, I'm saying we can't let that dictate our decisions going forward. We're paying his contract regardless of outcome, so we might as well actively explore options to improve over Yelich to compete to win now. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, WICKDADDY said:

The truth is we're "under water" on his contract though. We can't move him. He has negative value relative to his contract. Given that reality, I'm saying we can't let that dictate our decisions going forward. We're paying his contract regardless of outcome, so we might as well actively explore options to improve over Yelich to compete to win now. 

As I stated, he's by far the best on the team at getting on-base right now and is our best base-runner. We need him at the top of the order. 

[wibadgers23]

7 minutes ago, WICKDADDY said:

Frelick projects as the best leadoff hitter going into 2023 and beyond, Mitchell's speed makes him intriguing in that spot too. Yelich's future isn't in the leadoff spot IMO.

The truth is he's had over 2 years to make adjustments to his swing. The results haven't been there. Maybe the shift will help him, but I'd need to see the data on why the shift would help him more relative to other players who have outproduced him. 

He's fine, but he should have to compete for his spot. Otherwise we're just accepting mediocrity. 

 

 

Yeah I agree on the new shifting rules and whether that will really help Yelich that much. He hits a TON of weak grounders to the right side so not sure how those turn into base hits next year. Sure the laser shot grounders could get through but he doesn’t hit a ton of those. I’d be interested in some data though.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yeah I agree on the new shifting rules and whether that will really help Yelich that much. He hits a TON of weak grounders to the right side so not sure how those turn into base hits next year. Sure the laser shot grounders could get through but he doesn’t hit a ton of those. I’d be interested in some data though.

Actually, saying he hits a ton of weak grounders to the right side isn't accurate. He is among MLB leaders in hard-hit ground balls. 

[WICKDADDY]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

As I stated, he's by far the best on the team at getting on-base right now and is our best base-runner. We need him at the top of the order. 

Do we though? Frelick is ready and projects to be a better leadoff hitter.  

[WICKDADDY]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Actually, saying he hits a ton of weak grounders to the right side isn't accurate. He is among MLB leaders in hard-hit ground balls. 

He hits them hard ... and right at the 2b. The shift rules don't change that. 

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, WICKDADDY said:

Do we though? Frelick is ready and projects to be a better leadoff hitter.  

There's nothing preventing them both from hitting at the top of the order. Would then enable them to move Adames down into more of a run-producing role...

[damuelle]

I don’t have any data handy, but Yelich seems to be the guy who’s mentioned as often producing hard-hit ground-outs. If that’s the case, then yes, I’d expect him to benefit offensively from the shift ban.

But that may also mean Yelich is more likely to REMAIN in the leadoff role, even as we give lots of PAs to Frelick, Mitchell and Turang.

Who knows? Maybe Frelick will tap into extra power, as he’s only 22 years old. Bat him 7th or later until he has a hot streak, so we don’t have an early-Buxton situation on our hands if he struggles initially from such high expectations.

Man, I hope Frelick’s second half domination carries up into MLB: .369 AVG, .975 OPS over final 281 PAs this year, with 90 hits, 25 extra-base hits, 26 walks, 24 Ks, 14 SBs.

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, WICKDADDY said:

He hits them hard ... and right at the 2b. The shift rules don't change that. 

The person I was responding to said most of his grounders to the right side are weakly hit. That's factually not true. As far as anecdotal evidence, teams generally employ three infielders on the right side against him. Now, due to the rule change, there will be one less defender and more of his hard-hit ground balls will naturally find holes. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, damuelle said:

I don’t have any data handy, but Yelich seems to be the guy who’s mentioned as often producing hard-hit ground-outs. If that’s the case, then yes, I’d expect him to benefit offensively from the shift ban.

But that may also mean Yelich is more likely to REMAIN in the leadoff role, even as we give lots of PAs to Frelick, Mitchell and Turang.

Who knows? Maybe Frelick will tap into extra power, as he’s only 22 years old. Bat him 7th or later until he has a hot streak, so we don’t have an early-Buxton situation on our hands if he struggles initially from such high expectations.

Man, I hope Frelick’s second half domination carries up into MLB: .369 AVG, .975 OPS over final 281 PAs this year, with 90 hits, 25 extra-base hits, 26 walks, 24 Ks, 14 SBs.

Hitting Yelich and Frelick one and two would solve a lot of this team's lineup problems as it would enable them to shift Adames, who is a low OBP hitter, to a more natural run producing spot. 

[WICKDADDY]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

There's nothing preventing them both from hitting at the top of the order. Would then enable them to move Adames down into more of a run-producing role...

Completely agree that Adames needs to be moved down in order. I wouldn't be shocked though if Mitchell and Frelick both project as better table setters for us given their ability to hit for average and speed. 

[Samurai Bucky]

I understand Ashby's contract is end loaded, but it is weird seeing his name next to the second largest contract terms in the organization.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/contracts/

[owbc]

2 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

If Yelich was a full time DH batting leadoff he is likely to be the 6th/7th best DH in MLB.  

He put up greater than 2.5 WAR this year even with fielding that is below average. He was our 4th best hitter in 2022 by WAR and 1 of the top 3 is Wong and he might not be back.

At this point he could take some time to learn 1B, but for another year he's likely never going to be a better option then our current LH 1B. Yelich is suited to be the primary DH in 2023 no matter how much you dislike him.

Does anyone know how much the positional adjustment would (approximately) reduce that WAR number? Assuming Yelich puts up the same numbers in 2023 at DH (or hypothetically, 1B), I'm guessing he would drop below 2 WAR. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

47 minutes ago, WICKDADDY said:

Completely agree that Adames needs to be moved down in order. I wouldn't be shocked though if Mitchell and Frelick both project as better table setters for us given their ability to hit for average and speed. 

Maybe they will eventually. But it sure as heck most likely isn't going to be in 2023. Probably not in 2024 as well, unless they both really break out.